Pacers and Knicks Average a Combined 224.5 Points in Playoffs + NFL Futures to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: OKC’s title odds jump after Game 1

• Top 10 Bets: Indiana averaged 121.5 points a game in eight playoff wins

• Public Betting: A big money-bets split in Edmonton-Dallas Game 1

• Game of the Day: Pacers vs. Knicks kick off their series

• Overtime: Joe Burrow wishes the schedule-makers would stop it

The Thunder made a statement in the second half Tuesday night, and sportsbooks have noticed. OKC’s title odds were -175 at FanDuel before Game 1, and are now -250. Minnesota, meanwhile, has slumped from +650 to +950. The Thunder have moved to -750 to win the series, vs. the Wolves’ +530.

As for the Eastern Conference Finals, FanDuel has it tight, with the Knicks at -144 and Pacers +122. The Knicks are +550 to win it all; the Pacers are +850. Game 1 tips off tonight; more on that below.

Meanwhile, LeBron James has a theory on why the Knicks beat Boston — is he right?

—Patrick Dorsey

Brunson has Scored 27% of New York’s Points in the Playoffs

By Chris Farley

Pacers moneyline (+164 at FanDuel)
The Cavaliers struggled to consistently score on the playoffs version of the Knicks. Knicks' coach Tom Thibodeau prides himself on creating a culture of battle-ready warriors, which is exactly what his roster represented when they out-muscled the No. 1 seed. But Indiana is a different kind of puzzle. Five different guys led the Pacers in scoring in their 4-1 series win over Cleveland. Their defense stepped up and asserted its physicality in key moments, particularly Myles Turner under the rim. This is an Indiana program that doesn't quit and doesn't stop running downhill, a stark contrast to what New York experienced in the last round. We like visitors to make an early statement.

Pacers vs. Knicks over 223.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
The Pacers' offense seems unstoppable, and not just some of the time. In two postseason losses they mustered just 101 and 105 points. But in their eight wins, Indiana put up a healthy 121.5 points per game. Unsurprisingly, they're the best offense remaining among the four playoff teams. They also run at a very fast tempo, the third highest in the playoffs so far. The Knicks' defense has been much better in the playoffs, but they're still an offense-first operation. Putting up 28.8 points per game in two rounds, Jalen Brunson is an unstoppable force and Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the NBA's most productive No. 2s (20 ppg). All the ingredients are there for an explosive series, starting in game one.

Karl-Anthony Towns under 22.5 points (-110 at Bovada)
Towns has averaged just under 20 points per game in both series this postseason, but he'll need to come alive even more against the Pacers. Indiana's hyperbolic energy and production will force New York to be at their best offensively, which means Towns will be relied on heavily alongside Jalen Brunson. We're just not sure it'll happen in Game 1. Readers might be surprised to know that Indiana's defense against centers is right there with Minnesota’s as the best in the playoffs thus far (a 22.4 rating). Jarrett Allen was limited to just 12.8 points per game against Myles Turner, who should be covering Towns, and the Pacers' athleticism and physicality is beyond what Towns has faced so far. Look for a mediocre start from the big man.

Jalen Brunson over 28.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
There's a reason Brunson is a massive favorite (-420) to score more points than any other player in this series. Brunson has amassed 346 in 12 playoff games, good for 29 points per contest. It's also a whopping 27% of New York's total points in the postseason. While we expect Towns to face more challenges than he expects, we're not sure if anyone can stop Brunson. The former Villanova star and Mavericks transfer has been a lifesaver for the Knicks, a team that's struggled offensively since its days with Patrick Ewing. As if we needed any more reasons, in the regular season no starter had more clutch points than Brunson per game (5.6), and only Gary Trent Jr. averaged more in the playoffs (7.5, Brunson's at 5.4). Let's go!

WNBA

Wings under 77.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)
The new-look Dallas Wings opened the season losing to the Lynx after an initially nice effort, but Minnesota made it look easy in the second half (Dallas was outscored 38-53 in the final two quarters). With no time to recover, the 0-2 Wings take on the 2-0 Lynx in a quick rematch following their opener. Minnesota's spread is a bit inflated at this point, so we'll take a different approach. Dallas scoring 46 in the first half of the first meeting was a bit of a fluke, especially considering how new their roster composition is. The Lynx have yet to fully show the first-place defense we saw last season, but they've also been on the road. Meanwhile, Dallas is among the worst offenses through two games. This is a fantastic spot for Minnesota to smother their opponent. 

Mystics -5.5 (-110 at BetOnline and Caesars)
The Washington Mystics couldn't have asked for a better slate of opponents to open their season. Washington impressively beat out a very talented Atlanta roster in their opener (94-90), but they were at home and the Dream had a lot of changeover from last season. Then Washington beat down on the Sun, a program that lost all of its starting-five members and looks horrendous through three games. Now the Mystics are served the Golden State Valkyries. The Valkyries are an expansion team who are second-worst only to the Sky in offense and net-rating. The market is giving them respect here because we've only seen them play one game, but there's a reason why their win-total closed at 8.5 to start this season. We'll look for the visitors to cover.

Mercury -5.5 (-110 at Caesars)
It's only been one game, but an early look at the Phoenix Mercury suggests we could have a contender this season. Phoenix opened up with an impressive throttling of the Storm, holding their opponent to just 59 points. New additions Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally contributed 47 points for a combined 56.7% shooting percentage. What they lost in Diana Tuarasi and Brittney Griner, two legends and stalwarts of the franchise, they gained in more youth and two of the game's most versatile players. Meanwhile, L.A. beating up on the Valkyries in their opener is nothing to brag about (and they still only shot 46%). They followed it by getting predictably smacked around by Lynx. The Sparks profile as a mediocre team; the Mercury do not, and they're at home.

Tennis

Anna Kalinskaya +4 (-110 at BetOnline)
Last year Anna Kalinskaya hit a career record, rising to the 11th-ranked women's singles player in the world. This season hasn't followed as smoothly, but her potential is still there. In top form, few competitors are as smooth as the Russian, who glides around the baseline with grace and can find a path to return any hit on the court. Clay hasn't been her strong suit, though (59% career win percentage). Jessica Pegula has nothing to complain about. One of the best starts to a season in her career, she already has two tournament wins and two appearances in a final this year. We're just not sure how much this game or event means to Pegula, who's probably using it as a training ground, while Kalinskaya desperately needs momentum.

NFL Futures

Commanders to win NFC (+1000 at BetOnline and Bovada)
Some of you might remember our bullish takes on the Commanders before last season. We were confident in Jayden Daniels' ability, a prophecy that he brought to fruition and then some, leading his squad all the way to the NFC Championship game in his rookie season. The nation's capital and its surrounding towns are as excited and energetic as they've ever been for their NFL team, a true new era in DC. In the offseason, Washington has restocked its defense using draft capital, free agent signings like Javon Kinlaw and a one-year re-sign for for Bobby Wagner. They also used their first round pick on an elite offensive tackle and added Deebo Samuel, one of the league's most dynamic offensive weapons. Oh and Daniels is already the most clutch QB in the NFL. Move over, Philly!

NFL Rushing Leader: Saquon Barkley (+500 at BetRivers)
Barring an injury, this is a rinse-and-repeat wager we should all look at until something changes drastically in the City of Brotherly Love. As a Giants' fan, this sort of position is the bane of my existence; aka there are no emotions involved here. Barkley's career took a sudden and holistic turn when he moved from East Rutherford, N.J. to South Philly. In his first season with the Eagles, he led the NFL in carries (345) and yards (2,005). And he was still in first even though he missed Week 18 and played in six games where he carried the ball under 20 times. The Eagles' offensive line is unchanged and as elite as they've ever been, and Nick Sirianni opts to run the ball (56.29%) more than any other coach in the league.

Edmonton Has More Bets For Game 1, But 72% of the Money Is With Dallas

NBA

• Pacers (+4.5, -108) at Knicks: 60% of the bets and 52% of the money are with Indiana

NHL

• Oilers (+1.5, -225) at Stars (-1.5, +180): 66% of the bets are with Edmonton, but 72% of the money is with Dallas

WNBA

• Wings at Lynx (-11.5, -105): 76% of the bets and 90% of the money are with Minnesota

• Sparks (+5.5, -110) at Mercury (-5.5, -112): 55% of the bets are with Los Angeles, but 61% of the money is with Phoenix

• Mystics (-5.5, -110) at Valkyries: 84% of the bets and 96% of the money are with Washington

MLB

• Reds (-1.5, +142) at Pirates: 62% of the bets and 59% of the money are with Cincinnati

• Astros (-1.5, +125) at Rays: 63% of the bets and 94% of the money are with Houston

• Cubs (-1.5, +125) at Marlins: 80% of the bets and 93% of the money are with Chicago

• Orioles at Brewers (-1.5, +170): 51% of the bets and 85% of the money are with Milwaukee

• Mariners (-1.5, +106) at White Sox: 74% of the bets and 79% of the money are with Seattle

• Braves (-1.5, +117) at Nationals: 59% of the bets and 88% of the money are with Atlanta

• Mets at Red Sox (-1.5, +145): 63% of the bets and 51% of the money are with New York

• Rangers at Yankees (+1.5, -184): 87% of the bets and 85% of the money are with New York

• Angels at Athletics (-1.5, +125): 51% of the bets and 67% of the money are with the Athletics

• Diamondbacks (+1.5, -166) at Dodgers: 67% of the bets and 56% of the money are with Arizona

Knicks Won 2 of 3 vs. Pacers in the Regular Season Despite Playing Just 1 Home Game

Who had these two teams meeting in the Eastern Conference Finals when the playoffs began? Not many, but here we are, after the Pacers ousted the 64-win Cavaliers in five games and the Knicks took down the defending-champion Celtics in six.

No. 4 Pacers vs. No. 3 Knicks
8pm ET on TNT/Max
Game 1

• Spread: Knicks -4.5 (-112), Pacers +4.5 (-108)

  • 52% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Indiana

• Moneyline: Knicks -196, Pacers +164

• Total (223.5): Over -110, Under -110

*Stats in Playoffs

Regular-Season Rundown

• Oct. 25: Knicks won 123-98 in New York

  • Leading scorers: Bennedict Mathurin (20) | Jalen Brunson (26)

  • Leading rebounds: Myles Turner (7) | Karl-Anthony Towns (15)

  • Leading assists: T.J. McConnell (5) | Jalen Brunson (5)

• Nov. 10: Pacers won 132-121 in Indiana

  • Leading scorers: Jalen Brunson (33) | Bennedict Mathurin (38)

  • Leading rebounds: Josh Hart (10) | Bennedict Mathurin (8)

  • Leading assists: Jalen Brunson (10) | Tyrese Haliburton (14)

• Feb. 11: Knicks won 128-115 in Indiana

  • Leading scorers: Karl-Anthony Towns (40) | Pascal Siakam (24)

  • Leading rebounds: Karl-Anthony Towns (12) | Thomas Bryant (9)

  • Leading assists: Cameron Payne (8) | Tyrese Haliburton (8)

In the News 

• Joe Burrow is tired of something the NFL schedule-makers keep doing to his Bengals.

• Justin Jefferson wants to win an Olympic gold medal.

• Ashton Jeanty and Raiders OC Chip Kelly disagree on Jeanty’s infamous “Michael Myers” stance.

• Walker Buehler’s first start in his return from the IL didn’t last long, but it wasn’t shortened because of injury.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7:05pm: Rangers vs. Yankees on Prime Video

• 8pm: Pacers vs. Knicks on Max/TNT (Game 1)

• 8pm: Oilers vs. Stars on ESPN/ESPN+ (Game 1)

Photo of the Day