After Surviving Pacers' Game 1 Attack, Celtics Rebounding Advantage Could be Key to More Comfortable Win

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Timberwolves home woes
- NBA: Pacers missed their shot
- Column: NHL playoff surprises
- MLB: Rockies improving
- News: NFL considers adding games

After falling to the Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals last night, the Timberwolves have now lost three of their past four home games. Minnesota finished the regular season with the fifth-best home record in the NBA. Prior to their series against the Nuggets, the Timberwolves had won nine of their past 11 games at the Target Center. A note of caution for Minnesota fans: The past three Western Conference champions were a combined 23-2 at home before reaching the Finals.

In today’s newsletter, Jason is covering Game 2 between the Celtics and the Pacers and is tracking Boston to be much more prepared en route to a more comfortable win. In MLB, Malcolm looks at Nick Castellanos’s track record against the Rangers and the chances for a lot of hits in the Padres/Reds matchup. And our columnist, Abby Labar, talked to NHL experts to see who they think are the biggest surprises of the Stanley Cup playoffs so far.

Boston Celtics -8.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
The Indiana Pacers had their chance in Game 1 and blew it. After the Celtics flipped the script on Tuesday, they’ll be much more prepared in Game 2. While Boston might not earn a high rate of turnovers every game in this series, I’d still expect the Celtics to dominate on the glass and get to the foul line at a super-high rate moving forward. In Game 1, for example, the Celtics had 20 more foul shot attempts than the Pacers. The Celtics just have to be better on the boards and shoot at a higher percentage, which they’re more than capable of doing.

Pacers vs. Celtics over 224.5 points (-110 at Caesars)
It’s hard to imagine the Pacers shooting lights out in the playoffs every night. Yet, Indiana continues to come through. The Pacers have shot an effective field goal percentage of at least 60.1% in three of their last four games. Meanwhile, opponents aren’t shooting as efficiently against the Pacers but have added plenty of foul shots instead. As long as the Pacers continue to make shots and foul at a high rate, the over is the play.

TJ McConnell under 4.5 assists (-127 at BetRivers)
I know Rick Carlisle is known for being one of the best in-game coaches in the NBA. Yet, he didn’t make the necessary adjustments to the lineup late in Game 1. Once Aaron Nesmith fouled out, he went with three guards and two forwards/centers. That forced Andrew Nembhard to guard Jayson Tatum, and it wasn’t even fair, especially in the post. That said, if the proper adjustments are made, I’d like to think McConnell doesn’t get as much playing time. In addition, McConnell only added four assists in 25 minutes off the bench in Game 1. 

Payton Pritchard under 8.5 points (-135 at DraftKings)
As long as there’s no blowout, I’d be shocked if Payton Pritchard scored more than eight points. He added eight points on 3-for-4 from the field in Game 1 in 23 minutes and had a great series against the Cavaliers. However, in the first-round matchup against the Heat, Pritchard averaged 4.4 points per game despite averaging the same number of minutes. Against the Cavaliers, four of the five games were blowouts. I like these chances if he takes another four field goal attempts tonight.

Experts Pick the Biggest Surprises of the Stanley Cup Playoffs So Far

In any sport, the postseason always presents its fair share of surprises, unexpected twists, turns and excitement. However, as somebody who knew nothing about the NHL seven years ago before covering it and quickly falling in love with the game, I’ll argue that the Stanley Cup playoffs are among the best to watch in all of professional sports. 

After being a part of several postseason runs with the Carolina Hurricanes, I learned first-hand the amount of moving parts that have to be in sync in order for a team to make a long run and win it all. Goaltending, injuries, special teams, you name it – which is why we witness so many upsets and Cinderella stories. As the Conference Finals began last night, I asked some of my colleagues in hockey their thoughts on the biggest surprises thus far in the postseason.

Click here to continue reading Abby’s column on our website

Toronto over 3.5 runs (-132 at FanDuel)
The Toronto Blue Jays, averaging 3.68 runs per game this season, face Chicago White Sox right-hander Nick Nastrini, whose ERA stands at a high 7.88 across two starts. In his last outing, Nastrini surrendered six runs to Philadelphia. With the White Sox overall team ERA ranking 26th in the majors at 4.55, Toronto's lineup is well-positioned for a strong offensive performance. This matchup looks favorable for the Blue Jays to exploit Nastrini’s recent form and the broader struggles of the White Sox's pitching staff.

Nick Castellanos 2+ total bases (+110 at FanDuel)
Nick Castellanos of the Philadelphia Phillies has a solid track record against the Rangers, boasting a career batting average of .272 with 37 hits, including 2 homers and 13 RBIs across 37 games. This history suggests he's comfortable and effective against Texas pitching. Facing Dane Dunning, who has a 4.10 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this season, Castellanos could find success today. Dunning’s reliance on sinkers and sliders could play well into Castellanos’ hitting style.

Padres vs. Reds over 9.5 runs (-105 at FanDuel) 
Set in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, with a Park Factor score of 104 over the past three years, this matchup between the Padres and Reds should see high offensive output. Matt Waldron and Frankie Montas, the projected starters, have struggled this year, with Montas posting a 5.49 FIP and Waldron not faring much better. The Padres' top-10 team OPS (.714) and the Reds' sporadic performance, albeit impacted by injuries, suggest a potential for plenty of runs. The conducive weather and the park's characteristics further support a high-scoring affair.

Rockies moneyline (+102 at FanDuel) 
In this matchup, Colorado starter Ryan Feltner, with a SIERA of 4.06, and Oakland’s Joey Estes, struggling with a 4.68 SIERA and a 48.1% hard-hit rate, take the mound. Despite the Rockies languishing at the bottom of the NL West, they've shown resilience with a recent seven-game win streak and slightly better offensive stats than Oakland, posting a .686 OPS compared to Oakland’s .686, and averaging more runs per game. Given Oakland's struggles, losing a dozen of their last 15 games, the Rockies look poised to capitalize.

Tigers moneyline (-104 at FanDuel) 
This matchup features two capable pitchers who, despite recent inconsistencies, have the potential to dominate any game. The Tigers, led by starter Jack Flaherty, are positioned slightly better than the Blue Jays, whose offense has been unreliable. Given Flaherty's comparative stability this season, Detroit should edge out Toronto in what could be a tightly contested game.

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+102 at FanDuel) 
Following a strong performance by Ranger Suarez against Texas, the Phillies are aiming to close the series with a win. With another strong pitcher set to take the mound for Philadelphia — Zack Wheeler (5-3, 2.52 ERA) — against Texas's Andrew Heaney, who has been underperforming, the Phillies should leverage their pitching advantage.

Mariners vs. Yankees under 8 runs (-108 at FanDuel) 
Both teams boast strong pitching, with their starters and bullpens ranking in the top-10 in ERA and FIP. Seattle's lineup has underperformed, and with the Yankees facing Luis Castillo, who they have a poor track record against, look for a lower-scoring game than the line suggests.

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