Bettors are Split 50/50 on Knicks' (-6) Chances to Avoid Meltdown at MSG + Top 10 Bets of the Day

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The much-maligned College Football Playoff seeding system is changing

• Top 10 Bets: Knicks vs. Pacers, Yankees vs. Rockies, Dodgers vs. Mets

• Public Betting: The Yankees are getting BIG support from bettors vs. Colorado

• Game of the Day: Can the Knicks bounce back from their epic collapse?

• Overtime: Caitlin Clark made the wrong kind of history Thursday

If you’re one of the many who were vexed by the College Football Playoff’s seeding system last season, rejoice! Changes are coming.

Regardless of seeding, FanDuel has Texas favored to win it all at +550, followed by defending champion Ohio State at +600. Georgia, Oregon and Penn State are close behind at +750. And what the heck: If you really believe in Bill Belichick’s North Carolina, the payoff would be nice: The Tar Heels are at +23000.

Curious how the new seeding system would have affected the 2024-25 bracket? ESPN has you covered.

—Patrick Dorsey

Game 2 at Madison Square Garden Could be Very Early Do-or-Die Matchup for Knicks

By Craig Williams

Knicks moneyline (-230 at DraftKings)
The angle behind this play is simple: The Knicks openly acknowledged that they let Wednesday’s Game 1 get away from them. If they’re going to get back into the series, it will almost certainly require a victory in Game 2. From a human-nature perspective, it’s worth considering that teams have come out flat following an unexpected series advantage, and Wednesday’s improbable comeback could be the source of a Pacers hangover — in theory.

Knicks -6 (-115 at BetMGM)
If you’re buying the “desperate Knicks vs. hungover Pacers” angle, the spread is an attractive play to consider. The Knicks will throw what’s necessary at the Pacers in order to tie the series before it moves to Indianapolis. On paper, the Pacers can afford to wait and see what adjustments the Knicks make, and then prepare adjustments for Game 3 and beyond. And Game 2 will be about a little more than tying the series for the Knicks. It will be an opportunity for them to make a statement to themselves and begin the process of putting a poor showing behind them.

Pacers under 110.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
The Knicks will presumably place an increased focus on slowing down the Pacers offensively — especially after they let them get going in the fourth quarter of Game 1. A number of NBA pundits have promoted the idea of a long Knicks-Pacers series, and discussed the idea of the Pacers using their depth to wear down the Knicks over the course of six or seven games. If they’re right, and if the theory of the Pacers taking a “wait and see” approach is put into practice, it’s worth considering that head coach Rick Carlisle and Co. will be content holding back some of their offensive cards if they remain commit to playing the long game.

Tyrese Haliburton under 9.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
The Pacers were two minutes away from accepting an 0-1 series deficit before delivering one of the postseason’s most improbable victories. The Knicks are likely to come out ablaze, especially defensively; and after giving up a 14-point lead with three minutes remaining, it’s not unreasonable to expect them to be committed to a full 48-minute performance. If this dynamic plays out, and the Knicks deliver the type of suffocating defensive effort that we saw at times against the Celtics, it will likely be one that makes things challenging on both Haliburton and the players tasked with converting passes into assists.

MLB

Yankees -1.5 (-240 at FanDuel)
The Yankees are 8-2 over their past 10 with a four-game winning streak, while the Rockies enter tonight’s contest 2-8 over their past 10 with a four-game losing streak. They do hit better at Coors Field — a trend that works in everyone’s favor — but we don’t consider that to be enough reason to back them against a Yankees team that is playing well across multiple facets of play. Starter Clarke Schmidt enters tonight with a 3.13 ERA over his past 23 innings; and even though his fielding independent numbers suggest he’s been fortunate, we don’t view the Rockies as a team that will take advantage of Schmidt’s struggles, to the degree that he has them.

Yankees over 7.5 runs (-125 at FanDuel)
The Yankees have consistently performed as a top offense this season, and that includes the previous 10 games. The Rockies enter play with a league-worst 6.33 home ERA; and even their more forgiving 4.11 xFIP sneaks into the bottom-10 among big-league clubs. A trip to Coors Field doesn’t feel like the logical time to bank on a Yankees offensive slump.

Clarke Schmidt over 16.5 outs recorded (-120 at DraftKings)
One area of weakness Schmidt has shown in recent starts is a propensity to put men on base via the free pass. This hasn’t hurt him over his past four turns — a period spanning 23 innings — but it is a reason behind his FIP and xFIP being considerably higher than his ERA. Schmidt surrendered 12 free passes over that span, a trend that will typically come back to haunt any pitcher. The Rockies’ 7.8% walk rate ranks as the sixth-lowest in the league and they swing at the third-highest rate in MLB. On paper, it doesn’t appear as though the Rockies will wait around for Schmidt to get himself into trouble.

Mets over 3.5 runs first seven innings (+120 at DraftKings)
We’re looking at the Mets’ chances of getting after Clayton Kershaw in tonight’s Citi Field showdown. Kershaw is making his second start after he got knocked around by the Angels in his 2025 debut. He’ll likely be somewhat sharper, but there’s still a good chance he has another start or two of rust to shake off before he settles into what he’ll be this season. The Mets, for their part, are coming off of a trying stretch in which they lost five of seven, including a pair of shutouts. Six of those seven came on the road though, and they’ve been a much better team at home, both in the standings and in the batter’s box. The atmosphere should still be fun against a top NL club, but it won’t be the circus that three games at Yankee Stadium presents.

Dodgers under 2.5 runs first five innings (-140 at DraftKings)
We like the way Mets starter Griffin Canning is pitching this season. He had some trouble against the Athletics in Sacramento on April 11, surrendering four earned runs across five innings in a win — the Mets have won each of Canning’s past eight starts — but he’s been sharp since. He has a 1.67 ERA over 32 frames across his past six starts. The Dodgers are a little bit more ordinary on the road, both in the win-loss column and in the batter’s box, where their OPS is 102 points lower than their .860 home OPS.

Mets moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
We’re considering the Mets, who continue to be dominant at home — they’re 17-5 at Citi Field compared to 13-15 on the road. Their OPS is 50 points higher at home, a trend that stands to help a Mets lineup that has struggled in recent series. They also enter with a 2.40 home ERA, second-best in MLB. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are not nearly as dominant away from Dodger Stadium. They enter Flushing with a 12-11 record with a 4.05 road ERA and worse offensive production. Returning home could do the Mets some good after a 2-4 road trip. 

99% of the Money is Behind the Yankees (-1.5) as the Spread vs. Colorado Fell Overnight

NBA

• Pacers (+6, -108) at Knicks (-6, -112): 59% of the bets are with Indiana, but the money is 50/50

NHL

• Oilers (+1.5, -235) at Stars (-1.5, +215): 61% of the bets are with Edmonton, but 62% of the money is with Dallas

WNBA

• Sun at Lynx (-15.5, -110): 69% of the bets and 72% of the money are with Minnesota

• Mercury (+5.5, -104) at Storm (-5.5, -105): 51% of the bets are with Seattle, but 77% of the money is with Phoenix

• Valkyries (+11.5, -110) at Sparks (-11.5, +112): 53% of the bets are with Los Angeles, but 79% of the money is with Golden State

• Mystics at Aces (-14, -110): 60% of the bets and 85% of the money are with Las Vegas

MLB

• Cubs (-1.5, +152) at Reds: 51% of the bets and 88% of the money are with Chicago

• Giants at Nationals (+1.5, -178): 69% of the bets and 64% of the money are with Washington

• Dodgers (-1.5, +142) at Mets (+1.5, -154): 64% of the bets are with New York, but 60% of the money is with Los Angeles

• Guardians at Tigers (-1.5, +158): 57% of the bets and 93% of the money is with Detroit

• Padres (+1.5, -170) at Braves (-1.5, +154): 59% of the bets are with San Diego, but 70% of the money is with Atlanta

• Mariners (+1.5, -192) at Astros (-1.5, +170): 77% of the bets are with Houston, but 61% of the money is with Seattle

• Diamondbacks (-1.5, +135) at Cardinals (+1.5, -150): 67% of the bets are with St. Louis, but 73% of the money is with Arizona

• Yankees (-1.5, -184) at Rockies: 95% of the bets and 99% of the money are with New York

• Phillies (-1.5, -110) at Athletics: 86% of the bets and 99% of the money are with Philadelphia

Can the Knicks Shake Off Their Epic Game 1 Collapse vs. Indiana?

What happened in Game 1? Oh right, one of the most absurd endings to a regulation you’ll ever see, and ultimately a stunning comeback win for the Pacers. Can the Knicks shake off the heartbreak and keep from going down 2-0 before heading to Indiana?

No. 4 Pacers vs. No. 3 Knicks
8pm ET on TNT/Max
Game 2

• Spread: Knicks -6 (-112), Pacers +6 (-108)

  • 59% of the bets are with Indiana, but the money is 50/50

• Moneyline: Pacers +210, Knicks -255

• Total (224.5): Over -112, Under -108

*Stats in Playoffs

Series Rundown

• Game 1: Pacers won 138-135 (OT) in New York

  • Leading scorers: Tyrese Haliburton (31) | Jalen Brunson (43)

  • Leading rebounds: Obi Toppin (10) | Josh Hart (13)

  • Leading assists: Tyrese Haliburton (11) | Josh Hart (7)

In the News 

• Caitlin Clark did something she hadn’t done in a game since 2022.

• The Rockies did something no MLB team has done since 1895.

• Ex-Nuggets coach Michael Malone wants everyone to know who his pick for MVP was.

• The Pirates’ GM reacted to Paul Skenes trade talk.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 1pm: No. 9 UCLA vs. No. 8 South Carolina in NCAA softball on ESPN2/ESPN+

• 3pm: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 12 Texas Tech in NCAA softball on ESPN2/ESPN+

• 5pm: No. 15 Alabama vs. No. 2 Oklahoma in NCAA softball on ESPN2/ESPN+

• 7:10pm: Dodgers vs. Mets on Apple TV+

• 8pm: Pacers vs. Knicks on TNT/Max (Game 2)

• 8pm: Oilers vs. Stars on ESPN/ESPN+ (Game 2)

Photo of the Day