OKC (-3) Only Lost Two Straight Twice All Season + Top 10 Bets and 12 Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A look at French Open odds

• Top 10 Bets: SGA is averaging 15.3 potential assists per game in the playoffs (+ 3 NFL futures)

• Matchups: Pirates’ starter struggles against Diamondbacks hitters

• Game of the Day: OKC looks to come back after getting “punched in the mouth”

• Overtime: Kirk Cousins could be on the move

The French Open began in Paris yesterday, and TNT has coverage from 5am to 5:30pm ET all week. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz (-105) is the favorite on the men’s side, while No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (+280) has slightly better odds than three-time defending champion Iga Swiatek (+300).

Men’s No. 1 Jannik Sinner, who reached a settlement with the World Anti-Doping Agency to take a three-month ban between majors, has the second-best odds to win at +190 (and hasn’t lost sponsor support over his positive drug tests). Alcaraz beat Sinner in the final in Rome last week 7-6, 6-1, ending the Italian’s 26-match winning streak that began before his suspension. Novak Djokovic, who just captured his 100th singles title and has three French Open wins, is +1000, following by Alexander Zverev (+1500), Lorenzo Musetti (+1700) and Casper Ruud (+3200).

Swiatek, who has four French Open titles, is down to No. 5 in the world, is just 27-9 this year and has yet to win a title in 2025. Swiatek is 8-4 against Sabalenka going back to 2021. American Coco Gauff, who made the semifinal in Paris last year and was runner-up in 2022, is +490. Russian teenager Mirra Andreeva, also a 2024 semifinalist, is +500.

—Abe Rakov

Oklahoma City (-3) is 15-2 Following a Loss this Season, 3-0 in the Playoffs

By Jack Dougherty

Thunder -3 (-108 at DraftKings)
If your entire NBA betting strategy this year was just to take the Thunder coming off a loss, you’d be having quite the year. Oklahoma City is 15-2 in games following a loss this season, including 3-0 in that scenario in the playoffs. The Thunder beat the Nuggets by 43, 5 and 32 points after their three losses last round. Mark Daigneault is the king of adjustments, and he’ll have some tricks up his sleeve after the Timberwolves shot 57.3% from the field and 50.0% from three in Game 3. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists (-136 at FanDuel)
We’re getting a slight discount here after Gilgeous-Alexander managed just six assists on 11 potential assists, but we’re throwing out that performance because he played only 28 minutes in the blowout loss. SGA is averaging 15.3 potential assists per game in the postseason, and he’s cleared this line in six of his past 10 games. He’s also recorded at least seven assists in five of his seven games against the Timberwolves this year. 

MLB

Cubs vs. Rockies under 8 runs (-115 at BetMGM)
The weather at Wrigley Field affects hitters more than it does at any other ballpark in MLB, and it’s going to be chilly with a strong wind blowing back in from centerfield on Monday. The Rockies are also an abysmal hitting team on the road. Colorado ranks dead last in batting average (.195), OPS (.569) and wRC+ (59) in away games this season. There’s always a chance the Cubs scare this total by themselves against Colorado’s dreadful pitching staff, but the weather should keep their bats in check. 

Charlie Morton under 1.5 walks allowed (+140 at DraftKings)
Morton struggled with his command early in the season, but he’s bounced back since switching to the bullpen and gone under this line in six straight appearances. The veteran right-hander can’t go deep in games anymore, so he’s a solid target for an under. As for the matchup, the Cardinals have the second-highest chase contact rate and the fifth-highest zone contact rate in MLB. They also have the second-lowest walk rate against righties over the past two weeks (6.0%).

Rangers vs. Blue Jays first 5 innings under 3.5 runs (+100 at FanDuel)
This has all the makings of a pitchers’ duel. Jacob deGrom looks like his old self again with his 2.33 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He also ranks in the 90th percentile in whiff rate, the 85th percentile in chase rate and the 100th percentile in breaking run value. On the other side, the Rangers are struggling without Corey Seager in the lineup, batting just .204 with a .643 OPS and an 84 wRC+ against righties over the past two weeks. In 107 plate appearances against Kevin Gausman, Texas hitters are batting .178 with a .271 xwOBA.

Andrew Heaney under 3.5 strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Heaney is having a solid season, but he’s not doing it with swing-and-miss stuff. The Pirates left-hander ranks in the 25th percentile in strikeout rate (18.3%) and the 27th percentile in whiff rate (21.9%), and he’s gone under this line in four of his past five starts. This is also a tough matchup against Arizona, which has the second-lowest whiff rate and the sixth-highest chase contact rate in MLB. The Diamondbacks have just an 18.1% K rate against lefties this month, which is the second-lowest mark in the league.

Dodgers moneyline (-150 at BetMGM)
This price feels too light for the best team in baseball. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been lights out this season with his 1.86 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, and he gave up only one hit in 7.0 scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks in his last start. As for the Guardians, they rank 28th in OPS (.645) and wRC+ (83) and 29th in wOBA (.286) against righties over the last 15 days. The Dodgers are 7-3 in Yamamoto’s 10 starts this season, and they have a .538 batting average and a .401 xwOBA in limited action against Gavin Williams.

NFL Futures

Dave Canales to win Coach of the Year (+1800 at DraftKings)
It’s never too early to start thinking about NFL futures. When it comes to Coach of the Year, we’re looking for a team that can improve upon last year’s record by three or four games and make an unlikely playoff push. The Panthers went 5-12 last season, but they’re in much better shape this year after Bryce Young found some confidence down the stretch of 2024. If Carolina can sneak into the playoffs in the weak NFC South, Canales will have a great chance to win COY. 

Omarion Hampton to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1400 at FanDuel)
Ashton Jeanty is the clear favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but there shouldn’t be this much of a price difference between him (+250) and Hampton. Jeanty might get bottled up behind this Raiders offensive line, while Hampton will have plenty of room to run operating behind the Chargers’ Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt and Mekhi Becton. Hampton has more juice than Najee Harris, so he could steal this starting job early in the season and put up big numbers behind this offensive line. 

Mike Evans to record 1,000+ receiving yards (+135 at FanDuel)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Evans has cleared 1,000 receiving yards in all 11 of his seasons in the NFL, and we saw last year that the Buccaneers will force him the ball down the stretch to keep his historic streak alive. Evans played a career-low 14 games last year and still managed to go over 1,000 yards. This is a pass-happy offense with Evans operating as the alpha, and he’s been remarkably durable throughout his career.  

Three Diamondbacks Starters Combine for 12-26 vs. Pirates’ Andrew Heaney

• Brandon Nimmo (Mets) vs. Adrian Houser (White Sox): 4-7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Josh Naylor (Diamondbacks) vs. Andrew Heaney (Pirates): 4-8, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Diamondbacks) vs. Andrew Heaney (Pirates): 4-8, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Taylor Ward (Angels) vs. Ryan Yarbrough (Yankees): 4-8, 1 2B

• Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) vs. Andrew Heaney (Pirates): 4-10, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB

• Ryan McMahon (Rockies) vs. Jameson Taillon (Cubs): 4-12, 1 BB, 3 K

• Pete Alonso (Mets) vs. Adrian Houser (White Sox): 3-8, 2 RBI, 1 BB

• Ezequiel Tovar (Rockies) vs. Jameson Taillon (Cubs): 3-9, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 K

• Nolan Arenado (Cardinals) vs. Charlie Morton (Orioles): 6-24, 3 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) vs. Nick Martinez (Reds): 2-4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K

• Willi Castro (Twins) vs. Zack Littell (Rays): 2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Ty France (Twins) vs. Zack Littell (Rays): 2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI

SGA Says Thunder “Got a Decision to Make” After Game 3 Blowout in Minneapolis

After blowing out the Thunder by 42 points in their first home game of the series, the Timberwolves are looking to keep the momentum going. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said the Thunder “got punched in the mouth” in Game 3 and in tonight’s matchup “we're either going to get back up or not [and] we're going to lose the game.”

No. 1 Thunder vs. No. 6 Timberwolves
8:30pm ET on ESPN
(OKC leads 2-1)

• Spread: Thunder -3 (-110), Timberwolves +3 (-110)

  • 61% of the money is with OKC, but the bets are 50/50

• Moneyline: Thunder -154, Timberwolves +130

• Total (218.5): Over/Under -110

*Stats in Playoffs

Series Rundown

Game 3: Timberwolves won 143-101 in Minneapolis

• Leading scorers: Anthony Edwards (30) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell (14)

• Leading rebounds: Anthony Edwards (9) | Isiah Hartenstein (6)

• Leading assists: Anthony Edwards (6) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6)

Game 2: Thunder won 118-103 in Oklahoma City

• Leading scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (38) | Anthony Edwards (32)

• Leading rebounds: Jalen Williams (10) | Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert (9)

• Leading assists: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (8) | Anthony Edwards (6)

Game 1: Thunder won 114-88 in Oklahoma City

• Leading scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31) | Julius Randle (28)

• Leading rebounds: Jalen Williams (8) | Anthony Edwards (9)

• Leading assists: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (9) | Naz Reid (4)

In the News 

• The Steelers are starting to come up with a backup plan in case they don’t sign Aaron Rodgers.

• Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz set the record for the hardest-hit ball since the stat began being tracked in 2015:122.9 mph.

• Five Premier League teams fought for the final three Champions League spots on the last day of the season.

• A Spanish driver won the Indy 500 for the first time in history.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• All Day: French Open coverage on TNT until 5:30pm

• 8pm: Hurricanes vs. Panthers (3-0) on TNT

• 8:30pm: Thunder (2-1) vs. Timberwolves on ESPN

Photo of the Day