Expect Luka to Step Up in the Maverick's Second Attempt to Close Out the Timberwolves

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Bronny James staying in Draft
- NBA: Luka’s time
- Column: In the mind of a closer
- MLB: Adell’s opportunity
- News: Are the Mets the worst?

Bronny James has decided to stay in the NBA Draft, his agent, Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul, told ESPN. As you can see, mock drafts have consolidated on where they think the USC guard will go:

• The Ringer: No. 55 — Los Angeles Lakers

• Sports Illustrated: No. 55 — Los Angeles Lakers

• Bleacher Report: No. 55 — Los Angeles Lakers

• Hoops Hype: No. 55 — Los Angeles Lakers

• NBA Draft Room: No. 55 — Los Angeles Lakers

• Tankathon: No. 55 — Los Angeles Lakers

• CBS Sports: No. 17 (!!) — Los Angeles Lakers

FanDuel has the Lakers as the heavy favorite to draft James at +160, followed by the Jazz at +1100, Cavaliers at +1500, and 76ers and Knicks at +2000. James played in 25 games for USC this season, starting six, and averaged 4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists in just over 19 minutes a game after recovering from a cardiac arrest he suffered last July.

In terms of the No. 1 overall pick, 19-year-old French 7-footer Alexandre Sarr is the favorite at -220 on FanDuel. He’s followed by another French star, Zaccharie Risacher, at +310 and UConn center Donovan Clingan at +1100.

In today’s newsletter, Chris breaks down the Mavericks’ return to Minnesota, Craig sees opportunities for the Diamondbacks against the Mets, and Abby gets into the mind of today’s closers in her column.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves first half over 107 (-102 at FanDuel)
The stars of the Dallas Mavericks had a rough-go in Game 4. Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic shot just 13-39 (33%) from the field, a gross output compared to how prolific and productive they've been throughout the Westerns Conference finals. Even worse, Luka and Kyrie shot a ridiculously bad 5-17 (29%) from beyond the arc. Two of the most talented offensive players in the NBA won't struggle for two games in a row, and they've had little issue performing at a high-level on the road. Expect a more efficient Dallas offense to push the first two quarters over.

Luka Doncic over 30.5 pts (-102 at DraftKings)
Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic went back to their former roles in the postseason, with Kyrie becoming more of a facilitator while Luka led the offense and shot 21 times from the field. But the Slovenian star didn't experience the same success as he had in previous outings, as an energized Minnesota defense came out fiery and physical from the get-go. Tuesday was the first time Doncic failed to reach 30+ points in his last six contests, and the Mavericks cannot allow the T-Wolves to gain more confidence. Luka's shot attempts will be through the roof, and points should come along with.

Halftime/Full-Time: Minnesota wins 1st half, Dallas wins Game (+600 at DraftKings)
We've seen this story before. Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves are riding new confidence into Game 5 at home, and now they're putting pressure on Dallas to close out the series. With a raucous crowd and newfound momentum, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the home-team come out on fire to take an early lead. But the Mavericks were the NBA's #1 offense at the end of games all season, and Luka and Kyrie are tough to hold down for eight straight quarters.

Mavericks +4.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Minnesota is receiving love from the NBA marketplace after a resurgent win on Tuesday, an elite response down 0-3 in the series before snagging their first win. The spread makes sense for Game 5, since Minnesota is back at home and their stars have woken up; Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns combined for 54 points in their Game 4 win. But we're not taking the bait. The T-Wolves may win, but the margin of victory in all four games is just 4.5 points, and that's inflated thanks to a 9-point outlier win by Dallas in Game 3. Whether Dallas wins or not, this is bound to be a close battle.

The Art of a Closer: A conversation with Dan Plesac

Maybe it’s because I’m always paying close attention to the end of MLB games for work, but lately I have been so fascinated by watching a pitcher close out a game with command and confidence.

In this era of baseball where we are constantly discussing ways to make the game more entertaining through more offense and base running, the role of a closer right now – and a good consistent one at that – seems to not be talked about enough. I personally think watching a guy strike out the side in the bottom of the ninth can be as exciting as a walk-off.

You look at A’s closer Mason Miller, who has been all over the headlines lately as we “ooo and ah” over his fastball. But personally I would love to get inside Miller’s head more so than have his arm (that’s a lie, both would be awesome, but you get the point). Watching his composure each and every outing, he makes one of the most high-pressure roles in the game look so seamless.

Click here to continue reading Abby’s column on our website

Diamondbacks moneyline (-120 at Caesars)
The Mets are 2-8 over their last 10, and they’re riding a three-game losing streak in which they averaged 1.67 runs. They’re especially poor at Citi Field with an 11-19 record and -28 run differential. Making matters worse, Pete Alonso (finger) may be sidelined or compromised. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have a +17 run differential on the road, and starter Zac Gallen has produced four straight quality starts alongside a 2.81 ERA in May.

Zac Gallen over 17.5 outs recorded (-165 at DraftKings)
We’re picking on the Mets again on this short Thursday slate. We touched on their futility — especially at home — and Gallen’s recent form, and we don’t expect the Francisco Lindor-led player’s only meeting to spark their slumbering lineup. Veteran J.D. Martinez has tagged Gallen for a homer in six at-bats, but Lindor, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil are a combined six for 34 with seven strikeouts.

Nationals +0.5 first 3 innings (-120 at DraftKings)
The Nats’ ability to win their series in Atlanta will come down to starter Trevor Williams, who has a 1.85 ERA in May and has only allowed two home runs on the season. He catches the Braves during a bit of a down stretch — they have a -7 run differential and are scoring 2.67 runs over their last three. Williams hasn’t pitched deep into games this season, so we’re focused on his early performance.

Red Sox over 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-130 at DraftKings)
We don’t anticipate the Tigers running away with this one despite the Red Sox’s struggles at Fenway Park. Jack Flaherty takes the hill for Detroit with quality numbers, but has allowed hits (25) and homers (four) across 25 May innings. He also has allowed a 4.09 ERA his first time through the opposition’s order, so the Sox will likely have opportunities to plate a pair of runs across the first half of tonight’s contest.

Angels +0.5 first 3 innings (-130 at DraftKings)
We like the Angels to be the proverbial pesky thorn against the Yankees in the series finale. Five of the last seven Yankees vs. Angels matchups in Los Angeles have remained under, a trend that has helped the hosts enjoy some success against the Bombers. Current Yankees hitters are eight for 52 against Patrick Sandoval compared to the eight for 20 mark current Angels hitters have against Carlos Rodon.

Jo Adell over 0.5 hits (-135 at Caesars)
We’re making a bit of a sleeper pick here with Adell facing off against a lefty. He’s seeing Rodon for the first time in his career, but we like his work against southpaws this season, primarily his 1.094 OPS. Rodon, meanwhile, has fared worse away from Yankee Stadium and — understandably — allowed more damage against right-handers, including seven of his nine homers. The Angels can make life annoying for the favored Yankees with Adell playing his part.

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