Home Underdog Dodgers (+104) are 13-12 in May, Face 7-0 Yankees Ace Fried + First Stanley Cup Final Odds

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The Stanley Cup Final odds are a virtual deadlock

• Top 10 Bets: Phillies are 19-7 in May

• Public Betting: Bettors really like the Dodgers vs. the Yankees

• Matchups: Atlanta’s Matt Olson is mashing against today’s starter

• Overtime: Are the Steelers about to get another playmaker?

The Oilers finished off the Stars to set up a Stanley Cup Final rematch with the Panthers, and FanDuel sees the series as an effective toss-up. Edmonton (-113) is the slightest of favorites over defending champion Florida (-105). The Oilers are also favored (-122) to win Game 1 at home.

Connor McDavid (+110) leads the odds for the Conn Smythe Trophy, which would be a repeat for the Oilers star. Sergei Bobrovsky (+250) and Aleksander Barkov (+430) are seen as the most likely winners on the Panthers. Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (+850) is next.

The series begins June 4. Last year’s battle went seven games. No Canadian team has won the Stanley Cup since 1993.

—Patrick Dorsey

Yankees Ace Fried has Recorded at Least 18 Outs in 8 of 10 Starts

By Craig Wiliams

Yankees -0.5 first 5 innings (-110 at DraftKings)
The Yankees swept the Angels, even while only scoring nine runs across three games, including only four against two tricky left-handers in Games 2-3. We’re going to pick on Dodgers right-hander Tony Gonsolin in the opening game of the series. The Yankees own the game’s third-best wOBA against right-handed pitchers with a 10.1% walk rate. Gonsolin has issued 12 free passes across his past four starts (19 innings), and he’s given up four earned runs in each of his past two starts.

Yankees over 4.5 runs (-125 at FanDuel)
We picked on starter Tony Gonsolin, and we’re also going to pick on the Dodgers’ bullpen, which has struggled a bit this season — and in recent weeks in particular. Their bullpen ERA on the season is 3.98; but it’s 4.34 since May 1 and 4.92 since May 16. Gonsolin is only averaging 4.8 innings over his past four starts, and if that trend continues, the Yankees will have the chance to attack the Dodgers’ sputtering relief corps.

Yankees moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)
Yankees starter Max Fried has had some success against the Dodgers over his career, in both the regular season and postseason. That includes two respectable starts in 2024 (seven earned runs across 13 innings). Fried continues to pitch masterfully, surrendering only five earned runs in 32.1 May innings. The Dodgers are perhaps the best offense Fried has faced this season, but he does everything in his power — limit walks, limit homers, keep the ball on the ground, miss bats — to give the game’s best lineups trouble. If you’re confident in Fried navigating around Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy, who have both given him trouble, it’s fair to anticipate a Yankees win to open the weekend series.

Max Fried over 17.5 outs recorded (-160 at DraftKings)
This is another nod to Yankees ace Max Fried, who has a 3.21 ERA and 0.82 WHIP across five career starts at Dodger Stadium. And while Dodger Stadium has not played to its overwhelming pitcher-friendliness this decade, it’s still far from a hitter’s park. The danger zone for Fried will be against Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy, who are a combined 8 for 22 with three home runs against him. But if he can stay out of trouble against those two, Fried has demonstrated the ability to step up in big spots and against tough opposition. He’s recorded at least 18 outs in eight of his past 10 starts.

Rockies under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-154 at DraftKings)
The Rockies have four wins in the month of May, and while there are a number of culprits, one major reason is their .285 wOBA since May 1. Hitting the road to face a lefty won’t help them in this spot, not on paper at least. They have a .559 OPS away from Coors Field and a .593 OPS against southpaws. Those are difficult trends to bet against, especially for a team that has scored an MLB-worst 177 runs this season.

Rockies +0.5 first 3 innings (+110 at Caesars)
This position is about the Mets’ offensive inconsistencies and their particular struggles against Kyle Freeland. Current Mets hitters are batting .195/.258/.378 against the Rockies’ lefty, who pitches better away from Coors Field (naturally). Stats, splits, and metrics all suggest this is a series the Mets should win, but that doesn’t mean the Rockies can’t cover behind their ace after one turn through the order.

David Peterson to record a win (-125 at DraftKings)
We’re going to continue picking on the Rockies, who enter the weekend series with unfavorable splits on the road and against left-handers. Peterson is quietly performing as one of the game’s upper-tier arms with a 2.87 ERA over his past 179 innings. Peterson still gets himself into trouble that requires working out of — he has a 1.28 WHIP this season and a 1.29 WHIP over the aforementioned 179-inning span — but the Rockies bat .208 with runners on and .212 with runners in scoring position, so we’re confident in Peterson’s ability to continue navigating traffic in this spot. 

Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)
Devers has been ripping the cover off of the ball to the tune of a 1.133 OPS since Red Sox owner John Henry paid him a visit on May 9. He’s been especially dominant this season at home (1.073) and against right-handers (.979). We’re eyeing his matchup against the Braves’ Grant Holmes, especially under the context of Holmes’ cutter and slider. He throws those two pitches 42.3% of the time, and they’ve both generated positive run value — the 10.1 runs above average on his slider is the best of any of his offerings. Devers is crushing sliders this season, entering play with 7.4 runs above average against the pitch, and handling the cutter as well. If Holmes isn’t sharp, he’ll run the risk of getting hurt by Devers tonight.

Red Sox vs. Braves over 9 runs (-124 at FanDuel)
Something has to give when these two teams face off this weekend. The Red Sox are in a funk, entering the series on a five-game losing streak; the Braves are 12-13 in May and 10-20 on the road. The Braves will have a strained bullpen after AJ Smith-Shawver only gave them 2.2 innings in the first game of yesterday’s double-header. Sale’s six innings helped, but we’re still looking at the Braves needing length from starter Grant Holmes. Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito is still working his way back into form. He gave up three homers and six earned runs on May 17 against the Braves

Phillies over 4.5 runs (-120 at FanDuel)
The Phillies are hot, as they’re entering this weekend’s series with a 19-7 record in May. And even though credit is due to the Brewers for their recent 7-3 stretch, including five straight wins, we're not bullish on left-hander DL Hall slowing down the Phillies’ bats. The Phillies have the fourth-best wOBA in the league since May 1 and perform better at home, in both the win-loss and OPS departments. They also enter with favorable splits against lefties with a .760 OPS. 

Bettors Are Overwhelmingly Favoring the Dodgers (+1.5) vs. the Yankees

WNBA

• Liberty at Mystics (+8.5, -110): 57% of the money and 73% of the bets are with Washington

• Dream at Storm (-3.5, -108): 67% of the bets and 90% of the money are with Seattle

• Sparks at Aces (-9.5, +102): 53% of the bets and 62% of the money are with Las Vegas

• Lynx (-3.5, -110) at Mercury: 76% of the bets and 84% of the money are with Minnesota

MLB

• Reds at Cubs (-1.5, +116): 65% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Chicago

• Brewers at Phillies (-1.5, +142): 65% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• Athletics at Blue Jays (-1.5, +126): 71% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Toronto

• Rockies at Mets (-1.5, -154): 97% of the money and 92% of the bets are with the Mets

• Giants (-1.5, -104) at Marlins (+1.5, -115): The money is 50/50, but 54% of the bets are with Miami

• Angels (+1.5, -172) at Guardians (-1.5, +142): 54% of the money is with Cleveland, but 56% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Rays (+1.5, -152) at Astros: 52% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• Red Sox (+1.5, -142) vs. Braves (-1.5, +118): 60% of the money is with Atlanta, but 56% of the bets are with Boston

• Tigers (-1.5, +134) at Royals (+1.5, -162): 62% of the money is with Detroit, but 53% of the bets are with Kansas City

• Pirates at Padres (-1.5, +112): 87% of the money and 74% of the bets are with San Diego

• Yankees at Dodgers (+1.5, -160): 84% of the money and 83% of the bets are with Los Angeles

Matt Olson Has Mashed 4 Homers in 13 At-Bats vs. Lucas Giolito

• Amed Rosario (Nationals) vs. Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks): 5-6, 1 RBI

• Logan O’Hoppe (Angels) vs. Luis Ortiz (Guardians): 3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) vs. Max Fried (Yankees): 3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Matt Olson (Braves) vs. Lucas Giolito (Red Sox): 7-13, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K

• Josh Bell (Nationals) vs. Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks): 4-8, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K

• Christian Yelich (Brewers) vs. Taijuan Walker (Phillies): 4-8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Trent Grisham (Yankees) vs. Tony Gonsolin (Dodgers): 7-15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 K

• Elly De La Cruz (Reds) vs. Colin Rea (Cubs): 6-13, 1 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

• Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) vs. Casey Mize (Tigers): 5-11, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 1 K

• Spencer Steer (Reds) vs. Colin Rea (Cubs): 6-14, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K

• Salvador Perez (Royals) vs. Casey Mize (Tigers): 12-28, 2 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

• Dansby Swanson (Cubs) vs. Andrew Abbott (Reds): 3-7, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 4 BB

• Will Benson (Reds) vs. Colin Rea (Cubs): 5-12, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 4 K

• Jose Ramirez (Guardians) vs. Jose Soriano (Angels): 4-10, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 2 K

• Tommy Edman (Dodgers) vs. Max Fried (Yankees): 6-16, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

In the News 

• The Steelers might be on the verge of acquiring a Pro Bowl tight end.

• Jason Kelce has a creative idea for how to pick the USA Olympic flag football team.

• John Mellencamp apparently didn’t like what Pat McAfee had to say during Game 4 of Knicks-Pacers.

• Oops: The Washington Capitals might have accidentally revealed via email how many years Alex Ovechkin has left.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Florida in the Women’s College World Series on ESPN/ESPN+

• 7:15pm: Red Sox vs. Braves on Apple TV+

• 8pm: St. Louis Battlehawks vs. D.C. Defenders in UFL on Fox

• 9:30pm: Ole Miss vs. No. 16 Oregon in the Women’s College World Series on ESPN/ESPN+

• 10:10pm: Yankees vs. Dodgers on Apple TV+

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