In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: OKC is favored to repeat as NBA champions

2. Bets to Watch: Lakers starting the season without LeBron

3. NBA Preview: Knicks Brown has highest win total (53.5) for a first-year head coach

4. Public Money: First look at World Series odds

5. Overtime: NFL trade market with two weeks to go

1. Leading Off

The NBA season tips off tonight with a doubleheader on NBC (Rockets vs. Thunder at 7:30pm and Warriors vs. Lakers at 10pm). Oklahoma City is the favorite to repeat as champions at +200, followed by the Nuggets and Cavaliers (+700), Knicks (+1200), Rockets and Clippers (+1700), and Lakers (+1800).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is favored to repeat as the league’s MVP at +160. Three-time winner Nikola Jokic is next at +300, followed by Luka Doncic (+400), and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama (+1200). As he was before his injury last season, Wembanyama is the heavy favorite to win defensive player of the year (-185), with Chet Holmgren next at +650 and last year’s winner Evan Mobley at +1500.

Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg is an even bigger favorite to win Rookie of the Year at -220, and he’s followed by Jazz guard Ace Bailey (+900), Wizards guard Tre Johnson (+1000), and Spurs guard Dylan Harper (+1300). Harper would be the third straight San Antonio rookie to win the award.

And the Magic’s Jamahl Mosley (+600) starts the season as a slight favorite to win coach of the year over the Hawks’ Quin Snyder (+650). Pistons coach JB Bickerstaff and Knicks first-year leader Mike Brown are next at +1000.

We take a look at the betting market for each division, along with player futures, later on in today’s newsletter.

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Durant Likely to Focus on Getting Shots in Tall Rockets Lineup, Reaves Usage Goes Way Up With James Out

By Jack Dougherty

Thunder -7 (-106 at FanDuel)
No one knows anything for sure until the season actually starts, so the wise strategy early on would be to back teams without…

3. NBA Preview

OKC and SGA Are Favorites to Repeat, Cavs and Knicks Have East’s Best Odds

The NBA is back. While Oklahoma City is a big favorite to repeat as champions, the league isn’t lacking in storylines to start the season. Victor Wembanyama is back for the Spurs, who have high expectations and a new(ish) coach in Mitch Johnson. Speaking of which, there are six coaches in their first full season with their teams and half of them are expected to make the playoffs — including the Spurs. Luka Doncic is set to continue his takeover of the Lakers, who have the 7th-best odds to win the title but just the third-best odds to win their division.

Injuries hopefully won’t be story of the NBA season, it should be more exciting than that, but injuries will have a major impact on who is part of that excitement. The Celtics will be without superstar Jayson Tatum for most, if not all, of the season and their win total is set at 41.5 (over +102, under -124) because of it. The Pacers won’t have Tyrese Haliburton until next season, and sportsbooks see a huge slide for them as well at 36.5 wins (over -114, under -106). And the Lakers will be without LeBron James to start what could be his final season in Los Angeles, but they’re still -350 to make the playoffs because Luka Doncic can carry the team himself and James is expected to be back in November (46.5 wins, -110 over/under).

The Thunder, Cavaliers and Knicks are the three biggest favorites to win their divisions. The Pacific is expected to be the most competitive division, as the Clippers, Warriors and Lakers are bunched together odds-wise. And the Southwest and Central are the only divisions without a team with five-digit odds to win.

Division Winners

• Atlantic: Knicks -220, 76ers +500, Celtics +700, Raptors +1000, Nets +25000

• Central: Cavaliers: -370, Pistons +650, Bucks +950, Pacers +3500, Bulls +6500

• Southeast: Magic -160, Hawks +175, Heat +1100, Hornets +7000, Wizards +25000

• Northwest: Thunder -390, Nuggets +470, Timberwolves +1300, Trail Blazers +22500, Jazz +25000

• Pacific: Clippers +130, Warriors +195, Lakers +250, Kings +3500, Suns +10000

• Southwest: Rockets -190, Spurs +450, Mavericks +700, Grizzlies +1000, Pelicans +4500

Playoffs

• To Advance to At Least the Eastern Conference Semifinals: Cavaliers -390, Knicks -220, Magic -125, Hawks +120, Pistons +170, Celtics +220

• To Advance to At Least the Western Conference Semifinals: Thunder -750, Nuggets -200, Rockets +100, Clippers +130, Timberwolves +135, Lakers +155

Player Regular Season Leaders

• Points per Game: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +165, Giannis Antetokounmpo +270, Luka Doncic +430

• Rebounds per Game: Domantas +180, Nikola Jokic +340, Walker Kessler +650

• Assists per Game: Trae Young -180, Nikola Jokic +260

• Three Pointers Made per Game: Stephen Curry -150, Anthony Edwards +470

• Blocks per Game: Victor Wembanyama -425, Walker Kessler +1500

• Steals per Game: Dyson Daniels -130, Ausar Thompson +700

Regular Season Wins for Coaches in First Full Season

• Mike Brown (Knicks) — 53.5: Over +100, Under -122

• David Adelman (Nuggets) — 53.5: Over -115, Under -105

• Mitch Johnson (Spurs) — 43.5: Over -110, Under -110

• Thomas Iisalo (Grizzlies) — 39.5: Over -108, Under -112

• Doug Christie (Kings) — 34.5: Over -104, Under -118

• Jordan Ott (Suns) — 30.5: Over +100, Under -122

*Adelman, Johnson, Iisalo and Christie were all interim head coaches for their teams last season.

4. Public Money

The 7 NFL Week 8 Games Where 70%+ of Early Bettors Are With One Team

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Toronto came back to beat Seattle in Game 7 of the ACLS to make their first World Series since 1993.

• The NBA is back on NBC for the first time since Game 4 of the 2002 NBA Finals.

• How the NFL trade market looks with two weeks to go.

• Albert Pujols isn’t going to be the Angels next manager, but he has other possibilities.

• The United States teamed up with Mexico, Jamaica and Costa Rica for a joint 2031 Women's World Cup bid.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid in Champions League action on Paramount+ (plus 8 other matches, including two at 12:45pm)

• 7:30pm: Rockets vs. Thunder on NBC

• 7:30pm: Panthers vs. Bruins on ESPN

• 10pm: Warriors vs. Lakers on NBC

• 10pm: Avalanche vs. Mammoth on ESPN