Insights on 13 NBA Bets Plus a Sneaky-Good Day of Bowl Games

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The NFL’s Christmas ratings were, in a word, huge

• College Football: Washington State’s nightmare offseason could mean big things for Syracuse

• NBA: Celtics have been strong ATS after losses this season

• NBA: Warriors’ defense is struggling while Clippers’ offense is surging

• NFL: More from the Sportmoney x PFF weekly rundown

• Overtime: Toledo and Pitt set a bowl record for number of OTs

To hardly anyone’s surprise, the NFL’s ratings dominance continued on Christmas Day.

The NFL and Nielsen said 65 million U.S. viewers tuned in on Netflix for at least one minute of Kansas City-Pittsburgh or Baltimore-Houston, with the latter averaging 24.3 million and the former 24.1 million according to Nielsen. These were the most-streamed NFL games in U.S. history.

LeBron James might have raised eyebrows with his “Christmas is our day” comment, but the NBA didn’t exactly have a blue Christmas even if it lost the ratings battle. The league and Nielsen said the Association had its best holiday in five years, averaging about 5.25 million viewers per game.

In today’s newsletter, Jack covers college football and Chris and Craig have the NBA slate.

We have the NFL covered too: Our Sportmoney x PFF weekly rundown is on our website.

— Patrick Dorsey

Washington State’s Nightmare Offseason Sets the Table for High-Flying Syracuse

By Jack Dougherty

Vanderbilt +3 (-110 at DraftKings)

It’s surprising to see Vanderbilt still priced as a 3-point underdog after all the transfer and opt-out news from this game. Starting quarterback Haynes King will suit up for Georgia Tech, but the Yellow Jackets will be without their leading wide receiver, starting left tackle and four defensive starters. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, lost only one offensive lineman to the transfer portal. Quarterback Diego Pavia had a knack for showing up in big games all season, and he led Vandy to upset wins against Alabama and Auburn.

Haynes King 2+ touchdowns (+240 at DraftKings)

This Georgia Tech offense is at its best when King is leading the running game, and that’s exactly what we saw in the regular-season finale when he rushed 24 times for 110 yards and three touchdowns against Georgia. King scored seven rushing touchdowns over the final four games of the season, and he’ll be a major part of GT’s red zone game plan in this matchup. Vanderbilt gave up 211.3 rushing yards per game over its final three in the regular season. 

Arkansas team total under 24.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Nothing can slow an offense down faster than offensive line issues, and that’s exactly what we have with Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl. The Razorbacks lost three starting offensive linemen to the transfer portal, and they have only six healthy scholarship OLs left on the roster. That’s just one position group, too. Arkansas will also be without its top two receivers, top three running backs and starting tight end. Taylen Green has his work cut out for him Friday afternoon. 

Syracuse team total over 38.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

The Holiday Bowl has seen some of the wildest line movement in all of bowl season. Syracuse opened as a 2.5-point favorite in the game, but the spread has shot all the way up to -17.5 due to Washington State’s nightmare offseason. The Cougars lost their head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, star quarterback John Mateer and nine more starters to other teams. They’ll be without both starting cornerbacks (four total), three defensive linemen, a starting linebacker and a starting safety against Kyle McCord and this explosive Syracuse passing attack. Good luck. 

Kyle McCord 325+ passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

This pick goes hand-in-hand with the team total over. Washington State’s defense looks as though it stands no chance against Syracuse with a completely revamped secondary in the fold. A group of backups will be going up against the most prolific passing offense in the country led by McCord and his nation-leading 4,326 passing yards. McCord went over this line in nine of his 12 starts this season, and this figures to be one of the worst defenses he sees all year. 

Texas A&M vs. USC over 52.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

This is a much different USC team than the one we saw to start the season. Quarterback Miller Moss is off to Louisville, but backup Jayden Maiava led the Trojans to two wins in their last three games. Maiava is coming off his best performance of the season in which he put up 360 passing yards, five total touchdowns and 35 points against an elite Notre Dame defense. He should be able to post some points against a Texas A&M defense dealing with three key opt-outs on the defensive line. On the other side, USC’s defense is a mess with multiple transfers. The Trojans gave up 258 rushing yards to Notre Dame, so Marcel Reed and the Aggies should test that run defense all night. 

Celtics Are 5-2 ATS After a Loss This Season

By Craig Williams

Magic +7 (-110 at bet365)

We’re not necessarily suggesting the Magic will win tonight, but we can foresee a relatively close contest. The Knicks are fresh off a tightly contested nationally televised win on Christmas Day in New York City. And now they’re in Orlando to face a shorthanded Magic squad, who are 11-3-1 against the spread at home. It’s not always easy to bring the same level of energy and intensity following a big game, and if the Knicks come out flat, it could leave the door open for the Magic to cover.

Knicks vs. Magic under 213.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

The Magic continue to play strong defense — especially at home — despite missing key players like Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. They’re entering with a 0.997 defensive efficiency over their past three games — second best only to Milwaukee — and a league-best 0.996 defensive efficiency at home. The Knicks are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, but their production and efficiency wane on the road. We think the home/road splits, the undermanned Magic squad, plus the possibility of a sluggish start from the guests should conspire to produce an under in this matchup.

Karl-Anthony Towns over 1.5 3-pointers made (-132 at FanDuel)

Towns has been lethal from 3-point range this season, converting at a 44.7% clip overall. That number climbs to 45.7% on the road. It won’t be easy against the Magic, who allow the fewest 3-point attempts per game, but Towns is averaging two 3-point makes across nine December contests, and he’s knocked down at least two long-range shots in 11 of his past 17.

Spurs moneyline (-250 at BetMGM)

The Spurs have been streaky this season as they climb closer to playoff contention. They’re 4-6 straight-up across their past 10, but they’ve covered in four straight. Tonight is one of the rare instances they’ll enter a contest as the road favorite, a spot in which they’re 3-0 straight-up and 2-1 against the spread. We’re playing this one conservatively and just looking for the Spurs to win outright. The Nets are 15-9-1 against the spread as an underdog this season, and they continue to be a plucky and pesky team even after trading away starting point guard Dennis Schroder.

Victor Wembanyama over 4.5 steals + blocks (-115 at BetMGM)

Wembanyama is averaging 5.4 blocks alone over his past seven contests, and has three performances of five-plus blocks over that span. The Nets are among the most-blocked teams in the NBA, so on paper, it appears as if Wembanyama will be busy on defense. Additionally, Ben Simmons has been starting at point guard since the Nets traded away Schroder, and Simmons is averaging 4.8 turnovers across those five starts.

Boston -12 (-110 at FanDuel)

Are the Celtics hitting a midseason slump or are they primed to take out their frustration on the visiting Pacers? For now, we’re going to lean toward the latter. The Celtics are 5-2 against the spread after a loss, so they’ve demonstrated resilience. Unless you believe they are, in fact, enduring a winter skid, we don’t have any reason to suggest fading them. We’re also considering the Celtics’ overtime loss they suffered against the Pacers in Indiana. Not from a revenge perspective, but from a tactical adjustments standpoint.

Jayson Tatum over 3.5 3-pointers made (+104 at FanDuel)

The Celtics have lost two straight, and we’re looking at Tatum to assume a “stopper” role. Luckily for him, the Celtics aren’t a team that he’ll need to carry by himself, but we’re expecting a big performance from their superstar nonetheless. He’s averaging 10.7 3-point attempts in December and converting at a 36% clip. He’ll obviously need to do better in either the efficiency or volume department to reach the over with his recent rates, and we’re confident in him doing so. Tatum hoisted 18 3-pointers against the Pacers in their October 30 meeting.

Warriors Have NBA’s Worst Defense Over Past 5 Games

By Chris Farley

Timberwolves vs. Rockets under 213 (-110 consensus)

Minnesota's defense was arguably the biggest part of their ascension last season, and it just hasn't been the same this year. Recently, however, the Timberwolves showed a glimpse of their old form. In their last battle, Minnesota held Dallas, one of the hottest offenses in the NBA, to just 41.4% from the floor and 99 points in a win. The T-Wolves out-hustled and out-muscled their opponents, a mark of the defense we once knew. We like that heading into Friday, since Houston hasn't missed a beat defensively all season (2nd overall) and their first matchup, an OT battle won by Houston, ended at 202 points in regulation.

Rockets -1 (-105 at BetOnline)

While we were impressed by Minnesota's recent win against the Mavericks, it wasn't enough to completely restore our faith. The biggest roadblock for the Timberwolves has been their offense, a group that lacks chemistry and struggles to gain momentum on a nightly basis. Not surprisingly, the Wolves rank 24th overall and 24th in their past five contests in offensive efficiency. The Rockets are white-hot, winners of six of their past seven and ranked 9th in offense over the same span (and 6th in net rating). Houston also remains home until Jan. 7, while this is Minnesota’s third straight road game. 

Cavaliers -2.5 (-110 at Bookmaker)

At this point in the season, we have a solid sample size to feel confident about at least some observations. The Cavs have not fallen off their pedestal so far. They're ranked 1st in net rating over their past five games (2nd overall all season) and 1st on offense, the same designation they've owned for two straight months. Although it's hard to measure, it's their on-court chemistry that's so impressive to watch, a fluid operation of ego-less, above-average, two-way skill players that simply overwhelms opponents. The Nuggets have improved lately, but they haven’t been consistent, and this is the first of a back-to-back for Denver at home.

Mavericks moneyline (+105 at Bookmaker and FanDuel)

The Suns are coming off of a big win against the Nuggets on Christmas Day, an effort led by Kevin Durant, who scored 27 points. That doesn't change our minds about the trajectory of their program. Phoenix can't avoid injuries (Devin Booker won't play today) to their big three and they've been terribly flawed on defense all season, ranked 23rd and even worse lately (28th over their past seven games). Dallas is 6-2 without Luka Doncic and they've averaged 117 points per game without the Slovenian star, an indication of their exceptional depth and team chemistry. 

Clippers -4.5 (-110 consensus)

When the Clippers find rhythm on offense, they're a tough team to beat. Lately that's exactly what LAC is experiencing, a burgeoning offense led by dynamic guard Norman Powell (24 points per game), and the wins are following. LAC earned a few impressive victories against programs like Dallas and Memphis, full-team efforts from a roster that's ranked 7th in net rating over the past five games. The Warriors, meanwhile, are struggling to find an identity as they continue to sink in the standings. Even worse, Dennis Schroder doesn't feel like the right fit and Steph Curry is out Friday to manage a knee injury.

Norman Powell over 23.5 points (-111 at FanDuel)

Still awaiting the return of Kawhi Leonard, LAC's typically stout defense is usually the strength of the team’s program. But thanks to Powell and others, the Clippers have ranked 14th offensively over their past five games, a major improvement from earlier this season. On the other side, no defense has graded worse than Golden State’s in that same span. Powell is coming off four straight big games (29, 29, 28 and 29) and has been lights-out from the floor (49.5% overall, 47% from beyond the arc). His minutes have also risen; he’s played at least 37 in his past three starts.

Sportmoney x PFF Week 17 Rundown: Quarterbacks

• Most explosive pass plays (15+ yards)

  1. Baker Mayfield (97)

  2. Lamar Jackson (96)

  3. Jared Goff (93)

  4. Geno Smith (93)

  5. C.J. Stroud (88)

  6. Sam Darnold (88)

• Most yards off of explosive passes

  1. Jared Goff (2,362)

  2. Lamar Jackson (2,354)

  3. Sam Darnold (2,220)

  4. Joe Burrow (2,175)

  5. Josh Allen (2,158)

• Most TDs off of explosive passes

  1. Joe Burrow (16)

  2. Baker Mayfield (15)

  3. Lamar Jackson (14)

  4. Jared Goff (12)

  5. Justin Herbert (11)

• Teams allowing most explosive pass plays

  1. Ravens (105)

  2. Vikings (100)

  3. Jaguars (93)

  4. Lions (92)

  5. Bears (90)

  6. Saints (87)

  7. Bengals and Panthers (85)

• The Jaguars, Bears, Saints, Bengals and Panthers stick out since they aren’t often playing with a lead like the others (Ravens, Vikings and Lions), who are more likely to allow explosive passes when teams play catch-up.

You can find our full weekly analysis with PFF, which also includes running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, at sportmoney.com.

In the News 

• Toledo and Pittsburgh set a bowl record for number of overtimes.

• Pat Riley says the Heat will not be trading Jimmy Butler.

• The Cowboys are shutting down CeeDee Lamb for the season.

• DeSean Jackson is Delaware State’s new head football coach.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:30pm: Brighton vs. Brentford in the Premier League on Peacock

• 3:30pm: Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt in the Birmingham Bowl on ESPN

• 7pm: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl on ESPN

• 8pm: No. 21 Syracuse vs. Washington State in the DirecTV Holiday Bowl on FOX

• 10:30pm: USC vs. Texas A&M in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl on ESPN

Photo of the Day