NBA Playoffs Start Today with Streaking Knicks Looking to Slow Sixers Momentum

The Heat and Pelicans joined the NBA Playoffs party last night by winning at home to earn the 8-seeds. In today’s newsletter, Jason covers the four matchups kicking off the playoffs: Magic/Cavs, Suns/T-Wolves, 76ers/Knicks, and Lakers/Nuggets.

In MLB action, Jack is looking for a lot of runs in St. Louis and for Phillies starter Zack Wheeler to stay steady. And Sam is all over the Man City v Chelsea FA Cup semifinal, and is tracking MLS action tonight.

We’ll be covering boxing soon, but I’m glad we aren’t tonight for the Ryan Garcia v Devin Haney fight in Brooklyn because there’s no telling what Garcia is going to do (I mean, likely lose, but how and when is anyone’s guess). Garcia has been … unpredictable … lately.

Abe

• The Magic and Cavaliers played four games in the regular season. Three of those games went Over the total. Although the Magic showed some fatigue late in the season, Orlando responded with 113 points against Milwaukee on Sunday after adding 35.9% of offensive rebounds. They’ll face a Cavaliers team that has only held one of their last six teams to under 115.3 points per 100 possessions. Cleveland will score, and Donovan Mitchell should lead the way. However, the Magic should match. Ultimately, there will be no fatigue after a week of rest. Magic vs. Cavaliers OVER 207.5 (-105 at Caesars)

• Don’t sleep on the Suns in the playoffs. Heading into this game, the Suns have held seven consecutive teams to 115.3 points per 100 possessions or fewer. Four of those seven games have seen the opponent score under 110 points per 100 possessions, including Sunday’s game against the Timberwolves. On the other hand, the Suns can rely heavily on Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker on the offensive end. If the defense plays lights out, Phoenix will be unstoppable. Phoenix Suns MONEYLINE (+108 at FanDuel)

• The Suns have limited teams from the field. They’ve done it by adding a high rate of turnovers. Phoenix also doesn’t allow a consistent number of offensive rebounds. Most teams have even had trouble getting to the foul line against the Suns. Conversely, Minnesota scored just 106 points per 100 possessions in that loss to the Suns, with 27.4% of turnovers. Minnesota’s entire starting lineup played in that game and performed poorly. Suns vs. Timberwolves UNDER 215 (-110 at Caesars)

• The lines are ripping towards the Knicks in Game 1 of this series. While Joel Embiid is questionable, it’s more likely he plays. But if we learned anything from the Play-In Tournament, Embiid isn’t 100%. Philadelphia has won every game since Embiid has returned, but the offense hasn’t been close to elite. It’s mainly the Sixers defense that’s playing well. With that said, the Knicks have been much more consistent offensively and have held the 76ers to below 100 points in all four head-to-head games this season. New York should do enough offensively to escape. New York Knicks -2.5 (-115 at MGM)

• The Denver Nuggets have already defeated the Los Angeles Lakers in three games during the regular season. However, it’s playoff time. This is when the Lakers start to play at the highest level. Remember when the Lakers won the In-Season Tournament? LeBron James takes it up a notch, and everyone else performs better because of it. The Lakers should end up with more offensive rebounds than their typical average and will likely win the foul-shooting battle. What more could you ask for a 7.5-point underdog? Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 (-112 at BetRivers)

• In three games against the Orlando Magic in the regular season, Darius Garland averaged 26.7 points with eight assists per game. That’s about 35 points and assists per game in a three-game sample size. While Donovan Mitchell is healthy and back, Garland played with Mitchell in two of those three games and still averaged those stats. It makes sense when you know that the Magic finished the season ranked 26th in points and assists allowed to point guards. Darius Garland OVER 24.5 Points + Assists (+100 at DraftKings)

• Jalen Brunson has averaged 7.8 assists against the 76ers this season. He’s also tallied 6.7 assists per game overall. In addition, Brunson has nailed at least seven assists in every game but one in April, averaging 8.8 assists per game this month. We can also expect Brunson to see 40+ minutes of game action, with the ball in his hands practically every time down the floor. Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 Assists (-155 at DraftKings)

• Trea Turner can be a streaky hitter for the Philadelphia Phillies, but when he’s hot, he’s one of the toughest players in the league to get out. Over his last four games, Turner is 9-17 with three doubles, two home runs, and only one strikeout. He’s also batting .308 and slugging .462 in his career against Chicago White Sox starter Michael Soroka, who’s given up the eighth-worst xwOBA (.408) among qualified pitchers. Trea Turner OVER 1.5 total bases (+115 at DraftKings)

• There aren’t many hitters in MLB swinging the bat better than Juan Soto to start the season. The New York Yankees slugger is batting .347 with nine extra-base hits, and he has the fourth-highest OPS (1.068) in baseball through 20 games. Soto will also be licking his chops with Zach Eflin on the mound, as he’s batting .440 and slugging .760 in 25 career at-bats against the Tampa Bay Rays starter. Juan Soto OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-125 DraftKings)

• This is a severe pitching matchup we’re looking to exploit. Zac Gallen is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA and the best FIP (1.93) in the league through four starts. Kyle Harrison, on the other hand, has given up 25 hits and 12 earned runs in four starts, and he ranks in the 18th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. The Diamondbacks have the best batting average (.314) and the second-best OPS (.845) in MLB against lefties. Diamondbacks first five innings -0.5 (+112 FanDuel)

• Trevor Williams is on pace to have the best season of his career in terms of strikeout rate (22.6%), but it won’t be easy for the Nationals starter to keep that rolling against Houston. The Astros have the lowest K rate (16.9%), the sixth-lowest whiff rate (22.8%), and the second-highest zone contact rate (85.7%) in MLB this season. In 56 plate appearances against Williams, Houston hitters are batting .326 with a .441 xwOBA and a 14.3% strikeout rate. The right-hander may not last long in this one. Trevor Williams UNDER 3.5 Ks (+120 FanDuel)

• Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler has steadily improved his control throughout his career, and he recorded a career-low walk rate of 5.0% in 2023. He’s matching that exact walk rate to start the 2024 season, going under 1.5 walks in three of his first four starts. Now he gets to face a Chicago White Sox lineup that ranks 23rd in MLB in walk rate (8.2%). In 55 career matchups against current White Sox hitters, Wheeler has surrendered only one walk. Zack Wheeler UNDER 1.5 walks (-170 DraftKings)

• We’ve got a delicious medley of ingredients to cook up an over in St. Louis. For one, Brewers starter DL Hall has surrendered 22 hits and 10 earned runs over his first three starts of the season, and he’s given up the fourth-highest wOBA (.462) among qualified pitchers. On the other side, current Milwaukee hitters are batting .294 with a .475 expected plugging percentage in 56 plate appearances against Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas. And the kicker? The wind will be blowing strongly out to right-center field with gusts up to 24 miles per hour. Cardinals vs. Brewers OVER 8 (-118 FanDuel)

• On the theme of friendly hitting conditions at Busch Stadium, let’s try to capitalize on this wind. Paul Goldschmidt has struggled to start the year with a .169 batting average and only one home run in his first 71 at-bats, but he’s hitting .417 with a .980 OPS against left-handed pitching. Hall, a lefty, has already given up four home runs in three starts this season, and Milwaukee’s bullpen has surrendered 10 home runs, the fifth-highest mark in MLB. Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+450 FanDuel)

• We have a real relegation bout at Bramall Lane this morning with the Premier League’s bottom team Sheffield United hosting 19th-place Burnley. In truth the hopes of either team to stay in the division are bleak, but they both know a win gives them a little bit of hope, which should mean an open game. Burnley are marginally the better team, but we’ve seen the Blades pull of some random results through the season, so instead we’re looking for goals. United have allowed 84 goals in 32 games, an average of 2.6 goals per game. Burnley won 5-0 when the teams met earlier this season, and in both meetings in the Championship last season we saw Burnley score twice. Burnley OVER 1.5 goals (+114 at FanDuel)

• It’s notoriously difficult to pick the results of games down in the Championship, but one thing that is slightly more reliable are player props. With that in mind we’re looking at USMNT star Josh Sargent to score. The 24-year old has 15 goals in 23 Championship games for Norwich City, but we’re more interested in his form at home. He’s scored eight in his past eight at Carrow Road, only failing to score against league leaders Ipswich. Josh Sargent to score (+162 at Bet365)

• The FA Cup and great narratives go together like peanut butter and jelly, and today there’s no better storyline brewing than Cole Palmer facing Man City, who he left this summer to join Chelsea. It’s been revealed by Pep Guardiola that Palmer had wanted to leave the club for two years, something that is sure to get the crowd at Wembley even more fired up - all of that in an FA Cup semifinal. Since leaving City, Palmer has bagged 20 Premier League goals for his new club, as well as three more in other competitions. He’s also earned his first senior England cap and looks certain to go to Euro 2024 in Germany this summer. He comes into this match seriously hot, with 11 goals in his past six games in all competitions. Cole Palmer to score (+280 at FanDuel)

• Also in the Man City vs Chelsea match, the odds of a Malo Gusto assist are far higher than you’d expect given what we’re seen from his this season. A part of that is the opposition in Man City, but Gusto’s performances this season tell us that an assist shouldn’t be priced at +950. Through 23 Premier League games he’s picked up five assists, averaging 0.28 per 90 minutes played, the third best in the Chelsea team. Since becoming a regular starter he’s got more and more involved in attacks and now has five assists in his past 17 games of which he’s started. It doesn’t mean an assist is likely, but these odds were too big not to notice. Malo Gusto to have OVER 0.5 assists (+950 at FanDuel)

• Bayern face a trip to Union Berlin today, with the Bavarians in jubilant mood after dumping Arsenal from the Champions League. Harry Kane, the former Spurs striker, looks to continue his excellent scoring record against 13th-place Union Berlin, who are just three points clear of the relegation play-off spot. The Englishman has scored 32 goals in 29 Bundesliga games this campaign, including five in his past five league games. That doesn’t bode well for Union, who are averaging 1.5 goals conceded per game. Harry Kane to score (-110 at Bet365)

• Much like what we just pointed out with Harry Kane, sometimes you just have to follow the numbers, even if they lead to predictable names. That’s where we are today, and Lionel Messi is next. In five games he’s scored five goals, and has scored a goal in each of the last four games - even scoring against the Rapids despite playing just one half. Nashville are 14th in the Eastern Conference and have allowed 13 goals in seven games, and top-placed Inter Miami and Lionel Messi will be looking to take advantage. Lionel Messi to score (-138 at Bet365)

• The Timbers sit 10th in the Western Conference heading into today’s game, with just two wins to their name all season. They face a tough game at the Crew, who have lost just once all year. The Crew will fancy their chances of coming out on top and are rightly favorites, but in addition to that we’re also tracking both teams to score. The Crew have scored 10 and conceded seven in their eight games. but it’s the Timbers who really stand out - both teams scored in seven of their eight games this season. Columbus Crew to win and Both teams to score (+200 at Bet365)

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