20 NFL Bets to Watch + Where Bettors Have Money Today

There are 7 NFL games where 67%+ of bettors are with one team

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: NFC West battle will put one team in the driver’s seat

2. Bets to Watch: Insights on 20 NFL bets

3. By the Numbers: Seven NFL matchups where bettors are strongly in one corner

4. Overtime: Lincoln Riley’s place in the college football coaching carousel

1. Leading Off

The NFC West is the only division with three teams at six wins or better, and today’s Rams vs. 49ers showdown will give an early advantage in the race for the division title. Los Angeles enters at 6-2, tied with Seattle for the division lead, while San Francisco sits at 6-3 and beat the Rams in overtime back in Week 5.

This rematch matters more because these teams know each other so well. The battle in the trenches could decide everything, with Rams second-year linebacker Jared Verse facing off against 49ers veteran tackle Trent Williams. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford leads the NFL with 21 passing touchdowns, while running back Christian McCaffrey has carried San Francisco's offense with over 1,200 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns.

The game kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET at Levi's Stadium, part of a packed Sunday slate that features an international game from Berlin in the morning and 13 total games across four windows. Other key matchups include Patriots at Buccaneers and the nightcap between the Steelers and Chargers.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Finally Healthy Rams are Top-5 in EPA per Pass on Offense with a Top-7 in Sack Rate Defense

By Chris Farley

Rams -4.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
One month ago on Thursday Night Football, survivor contestants across America were devastated by another big upset. Without Brock Purdy, George Kittle and many…

3. By the Numbers

Seven Games Where 67%+ of Bettors are Behind One Team

NFL

• Falcons (+6.5, -114) vs. Colts (-6.5, -106): 75% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Indianapolis

  • ATL: 4-4, IND: 6-3

• Giants (+4.5, -115) vs. Bears (-4.5, -105): 70% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Chicago

  • NYG: 4-5, CHI: 5-3

• Ravens (-4.5, -106) vs. Vikings (+4.5, -114): 67% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Baltimore

  • BAL: 4-4, MIN: 4-4

• Saints (+5.5, -115) vs. Panthers (-5.5, -105): 78% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Carolina

  • NO: 2-7, CAR: 6-3

• Bills (-9.5, -105) vs. Dolphins (+9.5, -115): 88% of the money and 80% of the bets are with Buffalo

  • BUF: 3-5, MIA: 4-5

• Cardinals (+7, -115) vs. Seahawks (-7, -105): 83% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Seattle

  • ARI: 5-3, SEA: 6-2

• Lions (-7.5, -115) vs. Commanders (+7.5, -105): 91% of the money and 89% of the bets are with Detroit

  • DET: 5-3, WAS: 3-6

NBA 

• Thunder (-10.5, -110) vs. Grizzlies (+10.5, -110); 62% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Oklahoma City

  • OKC: 5-5, MEM: 3-7

• Nets (16.5, -110) vs. Knicks (-16.5, -110): 81% of the money and 66% of the bets are with New York

  • BKN: 3-6, NYK: 5-3

• Timberwolves (-5.5, -110) vs. Kings (+5.5, -110): 87% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Minnesota

  • MIN: 3-6-0, SAC: 4-4-1

4. Overtime

In the News 

• USC coach Lincoln Riley said “I'm where I need to be,” when his name came up in the college football coaching carousel. Riley is 33-16 at USC, one of the most high-profile coaching jobs in the country — but this offseason will feature some arguably even bigger programs.

• President Donald Trump wants the new Commanders stadium named after him, ESPN reports. Washington has an agreement on a new $3.7 billion stadium and surrounding area on the old RFK Stadium site.

• In an epic early-season college basketball matchup, No. 15 Alabama upset No. 5 St. John’s 103-96 at Madison Square Garden. The Crimson Tide scored 50+ points in both halves against coach Rick Pitino’s much-hyped Red Storm.

• A former first-round NFL draft pick is an NFL celebrity in Germany. Björn Werner, a former member of the Colts, is one of the biggest NFL ambassadors in Europe and has “turned into the German Pat McAfee over here.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 9:30am: Falcons vs. Colts on NFL Network

• 11:30am: Manchester City vs. Liverpool on USA

• 12pm: F1’s São Paulo Grand Prix on ESPN2

• 1pm: Patriots vs Buccaneers on CBS (or Ravens vs. Vikings on FOX)

• 3pm: No. 18 USC vs. No. 9 NC State (NCAAW) on ESPN

• 4:25pm: Rams vs. 49ers on FOX

• 8:20pm: Steelers vs. Chargers on NBC