A Guide to Week 1 NFL Matchups
Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here. Here’s a quick guide to all 16 games from Thursday through Monday:
Ravens vs. Chiefs (Thursday, 8:15pm on NBC)
Category | Ravens 2023 Rank | Chiefs 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 28.4 (4th) | 21.8 (13th) |
Point Differential | +203 (1st) | +77 (6th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-4 | 6-5 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 17.1 (4th) | 10.4 (12th) |
Turnover Differential | +12 (1st) | -11 (14th) |
Total Penalties | 102 (15th) | 96 (10th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: Lamar Jackson averaged 8.8 yards per attempt against single-high coverages last season, the 2nd-most among qualified passers. The Chiefs’ defense limited Jackson to 5 completions for 75 on 15 pass attempts against single-high coverages in the 2023 AFC Championship Game.
Packers vs. Eagles (Friday, 8:15pm on Peacock)
Category | Packers 2023 Rank | Eagles 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.5 (11th) | 25.5 (7th) |
Point Differential | +33 (10th) | +5 (15th) |
Record in Close Games | 6-5 | 8-3 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 9.8 (15th) | 7.1 (23rd) |
Turnover Differential | 0 (8th) | -11 (14th) |
Total Penalties | 105 (17th) | 95 (9th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: Jordan Love was pressured in under 2.5 seconds on 9.4% of his dropbacks in 2023, the 2nd-lowest rate faced by any qualified passer. The Eagles defense pressured opponent passers in under 2.5 seconds on 19.7% of their dropbacks last season, the 5th-highest rate of any defense.
Steelers vs. Falcons (Sunday, 1pm on FOX)
Category | Steelers 2023 Rank | Falcons 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 17.9 (24th) | 18.9 (23rd) |
Point Differential | -20 (19th) | -52 (21st) |
Record in Close Games | 9-2 | 4-6 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 7.4 (21st) | 7.6 (20th) |
Turnover Differential | +11 (2nd) | -12 (15th) |
Total Penalties | 86 (6th) | 84 (5th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: The Steelers offense gained +216 rushing yards over expected on designed runs in 2023 (6th in NFL). The Falcons defense limited opponent rushers to the 2nd-fewest RYOE on designed runs of any defense in the league over that same span (-222).
Cardinals vs. Bills (Sunday, 1pm on CBS)
Category | Cardinals 2023 Rank | Bills 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 19.4 (22nd) | 26.5 (6th) |
Point Differential | -125 (25th) | +140 (4th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-5 | 6-6 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 8.0 (18th) | 15.1 (6th) |
Turnover Differential | -1 (9th) | +2 (7th) |
Total Penalties | 101 (14th) | 106 (18th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: Stefon Diggs accounted for 29.4% of the Bills targets last season, the 6th-highest target share in the NFL. Two projected starters, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, were both reliable targets for Josh Allen last season. Shakir caught +14.3% of his targets over expected, leading all receivers with at least 40 targets. Meanwhile, Kincaid caught +5.1 receptions over expected, the 3rd-most by a rookie tight end since 2016. Second-round pick Keon Coleman played 21 snaps in the Bills Week 1 preseason game, primarily aligning as the X receiver.
Titans vs. Bears (Sunday, 1pm on FOX)
Category | Titans 2023 Rank | Bears 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 17.9 (24th) | 21.2 (16th) |
Point Differential | -62 (23rd) | -19 (18th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-7 | 2-6 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 8.0 (18th) | 12.7 (7th) |
Turnover Differential | -6 (12th) | +3 (6th) |
Total Penalties | 110 (19th) | 99 (12th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: Titans passers faced pressure in under 2.5 seconds on 19.7% of their dropbacks in 2023, the 3rd-highest rate faced by any team’s passers in that span. They have attempted to resolve these issues via the offseason additions of C Lloyd Cushenberry (FA via DEN), IOL Saahdiq Charles (FA via WAS), and rookie OT JC Latham (7th overall).
Patriots vs. Bengals (Sunday, 1pm on CBS)
Category | Patriots 2023 Rank | Bengals 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 13.9 (27th) | 21.5 (14th) |
Point Differential | -130 (26th) | -18 (17th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-8 | 5-4 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 3.8 (27th) | 9.3 (17th) |
Turnover Differential | -11 (14th) | +10 (3rd) |
Total Penalties | 89 (8th) | 76 (2nd) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: In the 4 games Joe Burrow played following the Bengals’ bye and preceding his season-ending wrist injury in Week 11, he generated a successful play on 51.7% of his dropbacks, the 4th-highest of any qualified passer over that span.
Texans vs. Colts (Sunday, 1pm on CBS)
Category | Texans 2023 Rank | Colts 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.2 (12th) | 23.3 (10th) |
Point Differential | +24 (12th) | -19 (18th) |
Record in Close Games | 7-3 | 6-3 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 9.6 (16th) | 7.7 (19th) |
Turnover Differential | +10 (3rd) | +2 (7th) |
Total Penalties | 114 (21st) | 95 (9th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: Texans quarterback CJ Stroud generated +35.3 passing EPA in his rookie season in 2023, the 7th most in the NFL Stroud's +35.3 passing EPA is the 3rd-most any QB has generated in their rookie season in the NGS era (since 2016), trailing only Dak Prescott in 2016 (+127.5) and Justin Herbert in 2020 (+84.4).
Jaguars vs. Dolphins (Sunday, 1pm on CBS)
Category | Jaguars 2023 Rank | Dolphins 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.2 (12th) | 29.2 (2nd) |
Point Differential | +6 (14th) | +105 (5th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-4 | 4-3 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 12.7 (7th) | 18.1 (3rd) |
Turnover Differential | -3 (11th) | +2 (7th) |
Total Penalties | 83 (4th) | 97 (11th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: Tua Tagovailoa got rid of the ball in just 2.36 seconds on average last season, a full tenth of a second quicker than any other quarterback, while still pushing the ball downfield (25% of his passes targeted the intermediate area, 4th in the NFL). Tagovailoa threw for 1,199 passing yards on quick passes that traveled at least 10 air yards, more than double the next closest quarterback. Tyreek Hill unlocked this scheme with his elite top end speed - he reached 20+ mph 17 times as a ball carrier last season, 10 more than any other player. This led to historic efficiency for Hill in terms of yards per route (4.0) and target rate (37.8%), both of which are the highest marks of any receiver season in the NGS era.
Panthers vs. Saints (Sunday, 1pm on FOX)
Category | Panthers 2023 Rank | Saints 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 13.9 (27th) | 23.6 (9th) |
Point Differential | -180 (28th) | +75 (7th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-6 | 3-6 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 2.0 (28th) | 15.2 (5th) |
Turnover Differential | -9 (13th) | +11 (2nd) |
Total Penalties | 103 (16th) | 96 (10th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: Bryce Young had a 61.3% expected completion percentage in 2023, the 3rd-lowest mark of any qualified passer. The Saints defense’s 62.9% expected completion percentage allowed was the 4th-lowest rate allowed by any defense in the NFL last season.
Vikings vs. Giants (Sunday, 1pm on FOX)
Category | Vikings 2023 Rank | Giants 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 20.2 (20th) | 15.6 (26th) |
Point Differential | -18 (17th) | -141 (27th) |
Record in Close Games | 6-8 | 4-4 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 6.7 (25th) | 7.3 (22nd) |
Turnover Differential | -12 (15th) | +12 (1st) |
Total Penalties | 89 (8th) | 89 (8th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: Wide receiver Justin Jefferson has generated +1,267 receiving yards over expected since his rookie season in 2020. Jefferson is 1 of 2 players to gain more than +1,000 recYOE over that span, and has more than +250 more than any player (J. Chase, +1,001 recYOE).
Raiders vs. Chargers (Sunday, 4:05pm on CBS)
Category | Raiders 2023 Rank | Chargers 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 19.5 (21st) | 20.4 (19th) |
Point Differential | +1 (16th) | -52 (21st) |
Record in Close Games | 5-5 | 3-8 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 12.2 (8th) | 11.0 (9th) |
Turnover Differential | -2 (10th) | 0 (8th) |
Total Penalties | 75 (1st) | 79 (3rd) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams was on the targeted end of 44.4% of the offense’s air yards in 2023, the 2nd-highest share achieved by any player last season (G. Wilson, 46.1%). Adams was also the recipient of 33.0% of the Raiders targets in that same time, the highest target share of any player last season.
Broncos vs. Seahawks (Sunday, 4:05pm on CBS)
Category | Broncos 2023 Rank | Seahawks 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 21.0 (17th) | 21.4 (15th) |
Point Differential | -56 (22nd) | -38 (20th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-4 | 6-4 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 8.0 (18th) | 6.8 (24th) |
Turnover Differential | +4 (5th) | +2 (7th) |
Total Penalties | 99 (12th) | 111 (20th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: The Seahawks earned a 40.7% success rate on their designed runs in 2023 (9th in NFL). The Broncos defense they are matching up against allowed a 43.5% success rate on their opponents’ designed runs over that same span (31st in NFL).
Cowboys vs. Browns (Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX)
Category | Cowboys 2023 Rank | Browns 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 29.9 (1st) | 23.3 (10th) |
Point Differential | +194 (2nd) | +34 (9th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-2 | 6-2 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 22.2 (1st) | 10.7 (10th) |
Turnover Differential | +10 (3rd) | -9 (13th) |
Total Penalties | 115 (22nd) | 115 (22nd) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: The Cowboys generated the highest pressure rate (42.5%) of any defense over the last six seasons in 2023. The unit mostly returned the same players from 2022, when they generated the 3rd-highest pressure rate (41.8%) over that time span. However, key rotational pass rushers Dante Fowler and Dorance Armstrong (who both generated over 30 pressures last season) left in free agency, and Sam Williams tore his ACL in camp.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX)
Category | Commanders 2023 Rank | Buccaneers 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 19.4 (22nd) | 20.5 (18th) |
Point Differential | -189 (29th) | +23 (13th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-6 | 3-4 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 4.2 (26th) | 10.2 (13th) |
Turnover Differential | -14 (16th) | +7 (4th) |
Total Penalties | 87 (7th) | 100 (13th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield gained a career-high +33.6 passing EPA on passes 10+ yards downfield in the middle third in 2023 (5th in NFL). The Commanders defense allowed +34.5 passing EPA on pass attempts 10+ yards downfield in the middle third of the field last season (30th in NFL).
Rams vs. Lions (Sunday, 8:20pm on NBC)
Category | Rams 2023 Rank | Lions 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 23.8 (8th) | 27.1 (5th) |
Point Differential | +27 (11th) | +66 (8th) |
Record in Close Games | 6-4 | 5-3 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 9.9 (14th) | 10.6 (11th) |
Turnover Differential | -3 (11th) | -1 (9th) |
Total Penalties | 89 (8th) | 97 (11th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: The Rams gained 6.8 yards per play with Stafford, Williams, Kupp & Nacua on the field last season, which would have led the NFL. Because of multiple injuries, this group played only 387 plays together last season.
Jets vs. 49ers (Monday, 8:15pm on ESPN)
Category | Jets 2023 Rank | 49ers 2023 Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 15.8 (25th) | 28.9 (3rd) |
Point Differential | -87 (24th) | +193 (3rd) |
Record in Close Games | 4-4 | 1-3 |
Ave. Margin of Victory | 9.3 (17th) | 19.1 (2nd) |
Turnover Differential | -6 (12th) | +10 (3rd) |
Total Penalties | 124 (23rd) | 101 (14th) |
Key Insight from NFL Stats: The Jets traded for right tackle Morgan Moses in the offseason, who allowed pressure on 11.1% of his pass blocking snaps in 2023 (28th of 34 RT, min. 300 pass blocking snaps). Moses will be primarily against 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa, whose 91 pressures in 2023 were the 3rd-most of any defender over that span.
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