Chiefs are 9.5-Point Favorites to Stay Undefeated; George to Make 76ers Debut?

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Title contenders show dominance

• NFL: Chiefs allow just 3.5 yards/rush and 82 rushing yards/game

• NBA: Jazz are the only team averaging under 100 points/game

• Tennis: Swiatek has won 11 of 12 against Gauff

• More NBA: Paul George expected to make 76ers debut

• Overtime: 55,000+ people finished the NYC Marathon yesterday

League leaders across sports showed their strength this weekend, winning with style and proving they are the ones to beat:

• The Lions beat the Packers at Lambeau and moved to 7-1 (less impressively, the Bills and Commanders both outlasted 2-win teams to move to 7-2). We’ll see if the Chiefs can stay undefeated tonight.

• Oregon handled Michigan and became the unanimous choice for No. 1 in the AP Poll, while No. 2 Georgia overcame a slow start to beat Florida and No. 4 Ohio State beat No. 3 Penn State in Happy Valley.

• Max Verstappen went from 17th to 1st in a rainy, crash-filled Sao Paulo Grand Prix to extend his lead on Lando Norris, whose 6th-place finish put him 62 points back in the F1 drivers’ standings with only 86 points available the rest of the season.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering Monday Night Football and the WTA Finals, and Craig and Jack are tracking tonight’s full NBA slate.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. If you’ve watched any sports recently, you probably know tomorrow is Election Day based on the onslaught of political ads we’ve all faced. If you are unsure of where to vote, you can find your polling place at vote.org.

Bucs are in Bottom-5 in Points Allowed (26.6) and Yards Allowed (387) per Game

By Chris Farley

Chiefs -9.5 (-101 at BetOnline)
If Baker Mayfield had his full complement of skill-players around him, we might reconsider this position. But without wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs' offense just isn't the same. We're impressed by their improvement on the ground this season (over 130 yards per game), but Kansas City's defense has no weakness, and we all know that Arrowhead Stadium is among the toughest venues in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes and his colleagues can control this game and force Mayfield, who has a league-leading 9 INTs, into making mistakes. This is Chiefs or pass.

Bucs vs. Chiefs under 45.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
We have little doubt that the Chiefs' offense will experience plenty of success on Monday. The Bucs are in the bottom-five in the NFL in points allowed (26.6) and yards allowed (387) per game, far from the Super Bowl-level defense they had a few years ago when they beat Kansas City. On the other side, we're not sure if Tampa will experience much success at all. Baker Mayfield has kept the offense moving, averaging 29.4 ppg (4th), but the Chiefs' defense is top-5 in points/yards allowed per game and Arrowhead will likely be rainy and sloppy; a treacherous atmosphere for both QBs, but especially for an enemy visitor. 

Baker Mayfield over 1.5 INTs (+140 at DraftKings)
The Bucs have drastically improved their ground game, an operation that was cyclically among the worst in the NFL the past few seasons. If they could depend on running the ball on Monday night, maybe Baker Mayfield could avoid making mistakes. We just don't like those chances. Kansas City is arguably the best run-defense in the NFL, allowing just 3.5 yards per rush and only 82 total yards per game, both 2nd overall (Baltimore is 1st, but mostly because teams run so little against them). And lately, Mayfield has been more impulsive than ever, committing at least two INTs in his last three contests (7 overall). With crappy weather to boot, this is a wager we can't avoid.

Patrick Mahomes under 248.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
This is all about the narrative we expect to play out on Monday night. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow 5.2 yards per rush, the third-worst mark in the NFL. Since rejoining the Chiefs, Kareem Hunt is averaging 21 rush attempts per game, and Kansas City remains one of the most run-committed programs in the NFL (31.1 attempts per game, 6th overall). Tampa's only path to victory is if Baker Mayfield has a huge performance through the air, so KC will look to play ball-control and keep-away. This is a better setup than most cases for this wager, although it helps that Mahomes is only averaging 225 pass yards per game, too.

Poole Averages 15.6 Shots a Game and a 27.6% Usage Rate 

By Craig Williams

Cavaliers -6.5 alternate (-125 at DraftKings)
We’re absorbing a little juice for a slightly shorter spread in order to account for a veteran team that will be anxious to end a five-game skid. Ultimately, however, we see that slide likely extending to six games against the Cavs tonight. The Bucks posted a 119.0 offensive rating with a 58.4 eFG% against the Cavs on Saturday and still lost. And short of another combined 28 for 51 effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard — including 10 of 15 from three — the Bucks might be taking another one on the chin. Taurean Prince chipped in with a season-high 16 points, but generally speaking, role players perform better at home, so we’re bearish on them playing well enough to cover.

Bucks under 111.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)
The Bucks had the Cavs where they wanted them on Saturday and gave them a good punch. But it still wasn’t enough despite being at home and catching the Cavs on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Bucks are struggling on the road offensively in the early portion of the season, and we don’t have any reason to anticipate a change in that trend against one of the game’s top defensive units — especially if they don’t receive another hyper efficient performance from Antetokounmpo and Lillard or quality bench performances.

Jayson Tatum over 3.5 threes (-115 at DraftKings)
Tatum can be streaky from three-point range over the course of the season, and he’s converting at a 22.7% clip over his last four. The silver lining is he’s still shooting at a high volume — 11 attempts over that span — and the Celtics continue to win in spite of his struggles. The Hawks are mediocre defensively, and they’re particularly generous defending the three. They allow the second-most attempts from distance and the highest conversion rate. This is a prime opportunity for Tatum to get back in a groove.

Warriors -9.5 alternate (-125 at DraftKings)
We’re picking on the Wizards, who are winless — straight-up and against the spread — against teams that aren’t the Atlanta Hawks. They’re coming off of a non-competitive loss to the Heat in Mexico City and are faced with mustering enough defensive resistance and offensive production — areas in which the Wizards struggle mightily, especially at home — against a Warriors team that is playing well in both phases, even without Stephen Curry in the fold. The Warriors won each of the last four meetings against the Wizards, including two on the road, and went 3-0-1 ATS. Their average margin of victory over that span is 10 points, so we’re looking at adding a tad more juice to get the spread to 9.5.

Jordan Poole over 22.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
Our position is rooted in volume. Poole is averaging 15.6 shots per game and a 27.6% usage rate, both second on the team to Kyle Kuzma. Kuzma will miss tonight’s game, theoretically placing more shot attempts on Poole’s shoulders. He went over in one of his two meetings with the Warriors last season, and he’ll have the opportunity to venture over in this spot. He’s shooting a career best 46.2% from the field and 51.2% on 8.6 three-point attempts per game. We don’t necessarily expect him to shoot so efficiently against the Warriors’ No. 2 rated defense, but Poole will be relied upon to keep the contest close. 

Lakers -6.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
The Lakers have won seven straight against the Pistons and covered in their last two meetings at Little Caesars Arena. The Pistons are entering the second leg of a back-to-back after winning at Brooklyn last night. The Lakers, meanwhile, last played on Friday night — a win in Toronto. The rest is key for the Lakers, who still rely heavily on 39-year-old LeBron James in addition to Anthony Davis. We’re anticipating the Lakers enjoying offensive success in this spot, but we’re also considering the Pistons’ struggles in the scoring department. They rank 23rd in offensive efficiency and 29th in pace, so we’re not bullish on them exploiting the Lakers’ porous defense.

Jazz under 110.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Jazz rank dead last in a number of offensive categories, including efficiency, turnovers, and effective field goal percentage, among others. They have not approached 111 points since they scored 124 in the opener. They’re averaging 95 PPG since that first contest and 99.8 points overall, also last in the league. Both the Bulls and Jazz rank top 10 in pace (the Bulls lead the league) so the Jazz will have the volume necessary, in theory, to put some points on the board. We still like the under though, thanks largely to the Bulls’ No. 10 defensive rating. Finally, as poor as the Jazz are playing offensively, their struggles are amplified on the road.

WTA Finals Feature Swiatek vs. Gauff and Pegula vs. Krejcikova on Tuesday Morning

By Chris Farley

(Tuesday morning matches)

Jessica Pegula vs. Barbora Krejcikova over 22.5 games (-105 at DraftKings)
It's been another mostly successful year for Jessica Pegula. She made it to the finals of the U.S. Open, an event she's dying to win, and she advanced to the quarterfinals or better in all four majors. Barbora Krejčíková's crowning moment of 2024 was becoming Wimbledon champion, her second major tournament win in the last four years. The Czech has been battling a back injury all year, but it didn't seem to make a difference at all in the WTA Finals opener. She beat Iga Swiatek in the first set and took her to 12 games in the second before Swiatek caught her stride. These ladies are evenly matched and will be motivated to mark this 2024 campaign with a seminal win and potentially a higher ranking. A longer battle is brewing. 

Iga Swiatek 2-0 (+120 at DraftKings)
Last year's WTA Finals champion and the world's #1 got off to a rocky start in her first match at the WTA Finals, but she quickly found her footing. The Polish power-hitter lost the first set, looking rusty and frustrated. Eventually her form returned, finishing the battle with a dominant 6-2 final set. Coco Gauff had another great year of tennis overall, but ultimately it ended in disappointment, finding herself out early in the Round of 16 in Flushing, NY (the same site where she won the U.S. Open last year). Gauff is a fighter and very easy to cheer for, but the reality is she hasn't fared well against Swiatek, who has won 11 of 12 against Gauff. All 11-wins have been dominant 2-0 sweeps. 

T-Wolves Defense Gives Up Most Assists a Game to Opposing Point Guards (11.4)

By Jack Dougherty

LaMelo Ball over 6.5 assists (-113 at FanDuel)
Ball has been a bit unlucky with his assist numbers this season. The Hornets point guard ranks 10th in the NBA in potential assists per game (13.7), but he ranks only 21st in assists per game (6.3). Ball is due for some positive regression in that aspect, and it should come against a Timberwolves defense that gives up the most assists per game to opposing point guards (11.4). 

Tyrese Haliburton under 17.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Haliburton has gone under this line in four of his six games this season, and this is a brutal matchup for him. The Pacers points guard is averaging just 15.4 points per game and shooting 33.3% from three in nine career games against the Mavericks. Dallas is holding opposing point guards to only 13.5 points per game this season, which is the lowest mark in the NBA.

Nikola Jokic triple-double (+190 at FanDuel)
Jokic has a chance to put up a monster stat line on Monday night. The Raptors rank dead last in the NBA in points allowed per game, 29th in defensive efficiency and fifth in pace, meaning Jokic will have more opportunities to rack up rebounds and assists in this matchup. The superstar center ranks third in the NBA in potential assists per game (17.7) and fourth in rebound chances per game (22.8), and he should top both averages in this matchup. 

Magic team total under 101.5 points (-112 at FanDuel)
In two games without Paolo Banchero in the lineup, Orlando is shooting just 39.3% from the field and 25.7% from three. Banchero was acting as the main scorer and playmaker for this team, leading the Magic in points, potential assists and assists in his five starts. This offense is lost without him, and the Thunder lead the NBA in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game and opponent effective field-goal percentage. 

Yves Missi under 7.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
Missi has been thrust into the starting lineup for the Pelicans due to a rash of injuries, but he hasn’t made much of the opportunity. The rookie from Belgium is just 4-11 (36.3%) from the field with eight total points in two starts, and this is a tough matchup against Deandre Ayton and Donovan Clingan. The Trail Blazers hold opposing centers to the fewest points per game (13.7) and give up the second-fewest points per game in the paint (40.6). 

Paul George under 17.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
George is expected to make his 76ers debut on Monday night, but we’d be surprised if he handles a full workload. We’ve already seen how careful Philadelphia plans to be with injuries this season, so George may not play more than 20-25 minutes coming off a knee injury. He’ll need to be ultra-efficient shooting the ball to clear this number, and the Suns give up the fourth-fewest points per game to opposing small forwards. 

Devin Booker 4+ made threes (+145 at FanDuel)
Booker, like many players in the NBA, is taking (and making) more threes and fewer twos than he ever has in his career. The veteran guard is attempting a career-high 8.3 three-pointers per game and shooting a career-high 40.0% from deep. Booker has cleared this line in three of six games this season, and the 76ers rank 29th in the NBA in opponent three-point shooting percentage (40.0%).

In the News 

• Kenyan woman wins NYC marathon in race debut: “The Netherlands’ Abdi Nageeye won a thrilling men’s race at the New York City marathon on Sunday, while Kenya’s Sheila Chepkirui marked her debut with a victory in the women’s race. Nageeye produced a powerful sprint finish to edge ahead of 2022 winner Evans Chebet in the race’s closing stages and crossed the line in a time of 2:07.39, six seconds faster than Chebet. They had been part of a strong six-man group which emerged in the race’s final 10 miles and then was gradually whittled down as each runner dropped off the pace. Defending champion Tamarit Tola was among them but lost contact with the leaders with five miles left and eventually finished in fourth place.” [CNN]

• Wrexham out of the FA Cup after surprising loss: “Wrexham have been eliminated from the FA Cup in the first round, losing 1-0 away at lower-league Harrogate Town on Sunday. Harrogate, 17th in League Two, were not fancied by many heading into the game against a Wrexham team who are looking to earn their third successive promotion and are third in League One. The Welsh side, part-owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, conceded against the run of play midway through the first half.” [ESPN]

• Oregon gets every 1st-place vote in AP Poll: “Oregon was the unanimous choice for No. 1 in The Associated Press college football poll on Sunday, strengthening its bid for the top spot in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s first rankings of the season. The Ducks are No. 1 in the AP Top 25 for the third straight week, and unanimous for the first time, following its 21-point road win against Michigan. Georgia, which received one No. 1 vote last week, remained No. 2 after overcoming Carson Beck’s three interceptions and pulling away late to beat Florida. Ohio State earned a one-spot promotion to No. 3 with its win at Penn State, the Buckeyes’ eighth in a row in the series. No. 4 Miami, which beat Duke, and No. 5 Texas, which was idle, each moved up a spot.” [Associated Press]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Monday afternoon Premier League action is back with Fulham facing Brentford on USA

• 6:30pm: College basketball is also back — you can watch Rick Pitino’s St. John’s squad take on Fordham on FS1, and TNT has the women’s defending champions, South Carolina, against Michigan at 7:30pm

• 8:15pm: The Chiefs look to stay undefeated against the visiting Buccaneers on ABC/ESPN

Photo of the Day