How NFL Teams Fared Against the Spread in First Half of the Season + 10 Bets to Watch Today

We also take a look at the first College Football Playoff rankings

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: A look at how teams fared against the spread in the first half of the NFL season

2. Bets to Watch: What Rockets’ guard Okogie’s height means for his props

3. Top 10: Analyzing the first CFP poll of the season

4. By the Numbers: Bettors looking for Spurs to rebound on the road

5. Overtime: The Jets’ sell-off

1. Leading Off

With the first half of the NFL season behind us, we decided to look at how teams are faring against the spread. The 7-2 Patriots and Colts are both 6-3 ATS, but the 7-2 Broncos are just 4-5. On the other end of the spectrum, the 3-5 Cardinals are 5-3 against the spread, and 1-7 Jets and 3-5 Falcons are 4-4. The 6-2 Seahawks and Rams have the best overall record against the spread on the season at 6-2.

The 2-6 Browns are the only team with a perfect record against the spread at home (3-0), while the Patriots, Cardinals, and Seahawks are all an undefeated 4-0 ATS on the road.

Here’s where the three biggest matchups of the week stand:

• Patriots (7-2, 4-0 Away) vs. Buccaneers (6-2, 2-1 Home)

  • Spread — Patriots (+2.5, -110), Buccaneers (-2.5, -110): 63% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Tampa

    • NE road: 4-0, TB home: 1-2

  • Moneyline — Patriots +120, Buccaneers -142

  • Total (48.5) — Over -104, Under -118

    • NE Road: 2-2, TB home: 3-0

• Rams (6-2, 3-1 Away) vs. 49ers (6-3, 2-1 Home)

  • Spread — Rams (-3.5, -115), 49ers (+3.5, -105): 68% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Los Angeles

    • LAR road: 2-1, SF home: 1-2

  • Moneyline — Rams -205, 49ers +172

  • Total (50.5) — Over -105, Under -115

    • LAR road: 2-1, SF home: 1-2

• Steelers (5-3, 2-1 Away) vs. Chargers (6-3, 3-2 Home)

  • Spread — Steelers (+3, -114), Chargers (-3, -106): 64% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Pittsburgh

    • PIT road 1-2, LAC home: 2-2

  • Moneyline — Steelers +126, Chargers -148

  • Total (45.5) — Over -105, Under -115

    • PIT road 2-1, LAC home: 2-2

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Heat’s Jaquez Jr. Averages 10+ Rebound Opportunities per Game, Cleared Boards Line in 6 of 7

By Todd Cordell

Rockets G Josh Okogie under 3.5 rebounds (-143 at DraftKings)
Okogie has recorded 10 rebounds through six games this season, clearing this line only once. That is not a coincidence. Okogie is the smallest starter on a massive Rockets roster and he is used primarily as an on-ball defender, often keeping him at the perimeter and far away from the basket. He has played fewer than 25 minutes in five of six games. For reference, he went over just 24% of the time last season when that was the case.

76ers G Kelly Oubre Jr. over 1.5 three pointers (-144 at FanDuel)
Oubre Jr. is seven for seven to the over this season. He is carrying an insane workload for Nick Nurse and the 76ers, averaging more than 37 minutes per night. That has led to nearly six three point attempts per game, giving him plenty of opportunity to go over the number. He is in a sneaky good spot to get some up tonight. The Cavaliers have given up the 3rd-most threes to his position and with the Sixers as heavy underdogs, they could be playing from behind a lot and forced to jack up extra long range shots to try and hang around.

Cavaliers F De’Andre Hunter over 3.5 rebounds (-154 at DraftKings)
Hunter is averaging a healthy 5.6 rebounds per game and has gone over all five times he’s taken the floor. For good reason. Hunter has recorded 8+ rebound chances each time out, and 10+ rebound chances in four of five. He had 4+ rebounds in 33 of 38 games (87%) last season when having at least eight board chances, which is the floor he has shown this year.

Heat F Jaime Jaquez Jr. over 4.5 rebounds (-151 at DraftKings)
Jaquez is another player seeing increased rebound opportunities this season. He has recorded 10+ in each game, which is why he has cleared in six of seven while picking up 6.7 boards per night. Jaquez Jr. cleared this line in 16 of 19 games last year while seeing double-digit rebound chances. That has become the new norm for him in this role

Grizzlies G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 2.5 assists (-112 at DraftKings)
KCP has picked up at least three helpers in six of eight games with the Grizzlies. He is playing on the ball much more than in previous years and being used as a secondary facilitator. He’s recorded at least five potential assists in seven of eight, and 6+ potential assists in five of eight. Last season he had three assists or more in 60% of his games when generating five potentials or more. The Rockets are likely to pressure Ja Morant all over the court, making it necessary he moves the rock and other players contribute with playmaking.

NHL

Blue Jackets C Kent Johnson over 1.5 shots (-120 at FanDuel)
Johnson has consistently cleared this line, recording multiple shots on target in nine of 12 games this season. The misses came against New Jersey, Dallas, and Toronto – three playoff teams. The Flames are certainly not that, sitting dead last with eight points through 14 games. They rank bottom-10 in shots against and give up plenty of volume to wingers. This is a good spot for Johnson to let it fly.

Flames D Rasmus Andersson over 1.5 shots (-170 at FanDuel)
Andersson’s shot volume has gone up a lot. He produced 4.7 shot attempts per game last year but that number has spiked to 5.8 this season. Perhaps aided by a lot of trailing game scripts, Andersson is shooting the puck a ton on a nightly basis. He has been remarkably productive when playing in Calgary, averaging 3.8 shots on 7.8 attempts. Facing a Blue Jackets team that ranks 1st in pace, and dead last in shot suppression vs. defensemen, Andersson should continue to pile up the shots Wednesday night.

Capitals C Dylan Strome over 0.5 assists (-110 at DraftKings)
Strome recorded a career-high 53 assists last year. He has picked up where he left off, recording eight helpers through his first 10 games of this season. He’s been especially efficient playing at home, recording seven assists over his past five games in Washington. He now faces a Blues squad that can’t keep the puck out of the net. They have conceded 44 goals over their last 10 games, which slots them last in the NHL.

Kraken D Brandon Montour over 2.5 shots (-140 at FanDuel)
Montour is one of the better volume generating defensemen in the NHL. That’s been on full display in the early going, with Montour recording 3+ shots in six of eight games. His unders came against the Senators and Rangers, both of whom rank in the top-10 when it comes to limiting shots against blueliners. The Sharks have given up the 5th-most shots to defensemen so this is not a matchup Montour should struggle.

Blackhawks D Sam Rinzel over 1.5 shots (-144 at FanDuel)
Rinzel’s shot rate has increased a lot over the last couple of weeks. He wasn’t shooting much to start the campaign but has picked it up in a big way, recording at least five shot attempts in eight of his last nine. Rinzel has multiple shots on goal in six of his past seven when hitting that number and went over in all six games he played down the stretch when clearing that bar last year. We should expect the volume to be there against a Canucks side that sits dead last in 5-on-5 shots against over the past 10 games.

3. Top 10

A Look at the First College Football Playoff Poll of the Season: Defending Champs Still on Top

The College Football Playoff selection committee released its first Top 25 rankings of the season — to not much controversy. The biggest takeaway is that head-to-head wins really matter to this group, especially when they don’t see much difference between the teams. Here is the CFP’s Top 10 and what we think of the ranking:

1. Ohio State (8-0): The Buckeyes might not have the most impressive schedule, but they’ve been the most impressive team with the slate they do have. They also started the year with a win over then-No. 1 (but clearly overrated) Texas. Ohio State ends the season at Michigan, which has won four straight in the series, then has a likely matchup with No. 2 Indiana in the conference championship game.

2. Indiana (9-0): This team continues to surprise the pundits. A 10-point win at then-No. 3 Oregon is the Hoosiers’ most impressive win of the season, but their 53-point route of then-No. 9 Illinois was their announcement that last year wasn’t a fluke. They have an even easier road to the Big Ten Championship game than Ohio State and are all-but assured their second straight CFP appearance.

3. Texas A&M (8-0): The Aggies have won at both Notre Dame and LSU, but like the two teams above them in the rankings, are benefitting a bit from a softer conference slate than usual. Texas A&M still has to travel to Missouri and Texas, but their biggest test of the year would come in the SEC title game.

4. Alabama (7-1): Crimson Tide fans thought their season was over and second-year coach Kalen DeBoer should be fired after the team’s shocking and uninspired Week 1 loss to Florida State. Now? They’re the top-ranked one-loss team and beat four teams in the AP’s top 16 in a row: at Georgia, vs. Vanderbilt, at Missouri and vs. Tennessee. Alabama has a better resume than the teams above them and would likely end up at No. 2 if they win out (assuming one school stays undefeated).

5. Georgia (7-1): Like Alabama, Georgia has more quality wins than the undefeated teams, but unfortunately for them, they had to play the Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs struggled against a coach-less but motivated Florida squad last week and face a feisty Mississippi State team this weekend before hosting No. 11 Texas. The top of the SEC standings is crowded, but Georgia could still make the conference title game and vault up these rankings.

6. Ole Miss (8-1): Lane Kiffin’s team has looked great all season, even in their lone loss to Georgia. They pass the eye test and have a soft schedule to end the season (at least from an SEC perspective). This is another team that could find its way to the conference championship game with a couple of losses around them. Their defense has come and gone throughout the season, but their offense has been consistently top-tier.

7. BYU (8-0): The undefeated Cougars face their toughest test of the season when they visit No. 8 Texas Tech on Saturday. BYU’s first truley impressive win of the season came in their last game at Iowa State (a two-touchdown victory). The Big 12 is ultra competitive, but BYU gets credit for being the team that finds a way to win each week. It’s also hard to see them moving up these rankings too much even with a win on Saturday, though.

8. Texas Tech (8-1): A four-point loss at Arizona State isn’t a resume-killer, but the Red Raiders only impressive win so far is at Utah by 24 points. We don’t see a path for the Big 12 to get two teams in the CFP no matter what happens on Saturday because there are a number of potential elimination games for each school coming up, including in the conference title game.

9. Oregon (7-1): The Ducks could have the best offense in the country, they just haven’t been able to showcase it against great competition yet this season. Their win at then-No. 3 Penn State was supposed to be the bright spot on their resume on the way to a Big Ten title game appearance, but the Nittany Lions have fallen apart then Oregon lost at home to Indiana. With games against No. 19 USC and No. 23 Washington left, the Ducks can beef up their resume — but likely not enough to get to a top-4 spot unless Ohio State or Indiana play their way out of the Big Ten championship.

10. Notre Dame (6-2): If there’s controversy in the top 10, it’s courtesy of the Fighting Irish. They’ve won six straight after starting 0-2, but those first two games were against the best competition they’ve faced (a three-point loss at Miami and a one-point defeat to Texas A&M). Notre Dame’s best win is against USC, the rest of its slate isn’t impressive, and there’s no conference title game to play in. The Fighting Irish could get passed up by Texas or Oklahoma by the end of the season.

The rest of the Top 25 (in order): Texas, Oklahoma, Utah, Virginia, Louisville, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Miami, USC, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Washington, Pittsburgh, Tennessee

4. By the Numbers

Bettors Backing Road Underdog Spurs (+3) at Lakers After Suffering First Loss of Season

NBA

• 76ers (+9.5, -108) vs. Cavaliers (-9.5, -112): 78% of the money and 79% of the bets are with Philadelphia

  • ATS — PHI 3-1-3, CLE 2-5

• Jazz (+10.5, -114) vs. Pistons (-10.5, -106): 65% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Utah

  • ATS — UTA: 5-2, DET 5-2

• Timberwolves (+4.5, -110) vs. Knicks (-4.5, -110): 65% of the money and 53% of the bets are with New York

  • ATS — MIN 2-5, NYK 4-3

• Wizards (+12, -110) vs. Celtics (-12, -110): 74% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Boston

  • ATS — WAS: 1-5-1, BOS 2-5-1

• Rockets (-7.5, -110) vs. Grizzlies (+7.5, -110): 75% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Houston

  • ATS — HOU 4-2, MEM 2-6

• Heat (+9.5, -110) vs. Nuggets (-9.5, -110): 64% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Miami

  • ATS — MIA: 5-1-1, DEN: 3-3-0

• Spurs (+3, -112) vs. Lakers (-3, -108): 63% of the money and 62% of the bets are with San Antonio

  • ATS — SA: 3-1-2, LAL: 6-2

• Thunder (-4.5, -112) vs. Trail Blazers (+4.5, -108): 70% of the money and bets are with Oklahoma City

  • ATS — OKC: 4-4, POR: 5-2

CFB

• Kent State (+2.5, -105) vs. Ball State (-2.5, -115): 69% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Ball State

  • ATS — Kent State: 4-4, Ball State: 5-3

• Northern Illinois (+14.5, -105) vs. Toledo (-14.5, -115): 56% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Toledo

  • ATS — Northern Illinois: 2-6, Toledo: 5-3

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Jets general manager Darren Mougey said trading defensive stars Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams isn’t the start of a rebuild, but the value was “too good to pass up.” New York got two first round picks and receiver Adonai Mitchell from the Colts for Gardner, and a first and second round pick and defensive tackle Mazi Smith from the Cowboys for Williams.

• Berlin will be the third German city to host an NFL game when the Colts and Falcons play on Sunday — the city will also host games in 2027 and 2029, with a 2028 announcement likely coming soon. The Associated Press reports that 11 teams have commercial rights in Germany, more than in any other country.

• Voters approved funding for a new Spurs arena in downtown San Antonio yesterday.

• Former New York Liberty coach Sandy Brondello will be the Toronto Tempo’s first coach when the team begins play next year. Brondello won a title with the Liberty in 2024 but her contract wasn’t renewed after losing in the first round of the playoffs in 2025.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Manchester City vs. Dortmund Champions League on Paramount+

• 7pm: Northern Illinois vs. Toledo CFB on ESPN2

• 7:30pm: Timberwolves vs. Knicks on ESPN (or Blues vs. Capitals on TNT)

• 10pm: Spurs vs. Lakers on ESPN