With Aaron Gordon Injured, Look for Jokic to Have to Do More + NCAAM Odds

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: First College Football Playoff rankings

• NBA: OKC ranks second in first-quarter scoring margin (+6.8)

• NCAAM: Notre Dame’s top six players in average minutes return this year

• More NBA: Without Banchero, Magic have averaged 93.3 points and are last in offensive efficiency

• NCAAW: South Carolina is +155 to repeat as National Champs

• Overtime: NFL trade deadline winners and losers

The first edition of the new College Football Playoff rankings came out last night, and the biggest controversy was less a controversy and more a realization of how the bracket rules work. Oregon is ranked No. 1, followed by Ohio State, Georgia and Miami to round out the top 4.

But because the top-4 teams have to be the four highest-ranked conference champions, if the rankings stay the same the rest of the year (hint: they won’t), the Buckeyes would drop all the way to the 5th-seed and lose a bye because Ohio State and Oregon are both in the Big Ten. BYU would jump from 9th all the way to 4th because the teams ranked 5-8 are in the same conference of teams ranked above them. Here’s how the bracket would look if these first rankings match the final rankings on Dec. 8:

In today’s newsletter, Jack and Chris cover a full schedule of NBA action, Craig looks at tonight’s men’s college basketball games, and we run through some women’s college basketball futures.

— Abe Rakov

Caleb Martin Averages 7.3 Rebounds per Game and Tonight’s Line is Just 4.5

By Jack Dougherty

Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double (+130 at DraftKings)
Aaron Gordon left Denver’s last game against the Raptors with a calf injury, and Jokic proceeded to rack up 13 assists on a whopping 25 potentials and 92 total passes. He also recorded 14 rebounds on 25 chances. Jokic will need to do everything for the Nuggets with Gordon out of the lineup for a few weeks. This is a tough matchup against the Thunder, but Jokic’s overwhelming usage without Gordon is worth considering.

Thunder -2.5 first quarter (-105 at FanDuel)
The Thunder are a force right now, especially when its starting lineup is on the court. Oklahoma City ranks first in the NBA in first-quarter points allowed per game (23.5) and second in first-quarter scoring margin (+6.8). OKC has gone 5-2 against this first-quarter line this season, including on opening night when it outscored Denver, 31-24, in the first frame. 

Raptors vs. Kings over 237.5 points (-112 FanDuel)
This is the highest total on the board Wednesday night, but it still might be too low. The Raptors are an over bettor’s dream right now, as they rank fourth in the NBA in pace, fourth in points per game (119.4) and dead-last in points allowed per game (125.0). Five straight Toronto games have gone over this total with an average of 255.6 points per game. 

Keegan Murray under 2.5 threes (-118 at FanDuel)
Although Wednesday night’s matchup between the Raptors and Kings projects to be high-scoring, Murray could have a tough time clearing this prop. The Kings forward hasn’t been a high-volume or high-efficiency shooter since he went 5-10 from three on opening night. Murray has gone under this line in six straight games and is 8-33 (24.2%) from deep in that span, while the Raptors give up the fourth-fewest three-point attempts per game (33.0). 

Fred VanVleet over 2.5 threes (+100 at DraftKings)
VanVleet is shooting just 27.6% from three this season, but that hasn’t stopped him from chucking them up. The Raptors point guard is averaging 8.3 three-point attempts per game, putting up at least eight threes in five of his seven starts. He’s cleared this line three times this season, and two of those performances came against the Spurs. San Antonio ranks 27th in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed (37.8%) and 26th in threes per game allowed to point guards (4.0). 

Caleb Martin over 4.5 rebounds (-148 at DraftKings)
Martin has been busy on the glass with Joel Embiid out of the lineup to start the season. The 76ers small forward is averaging 7.3 rebounds per game, and he’s cleared this line in five of his six starts. Martin racked up 10 rebounds on 13 chances in Paul George’s first game with Philadelphia, so his rebounding role looks to have expanded with this new lineup. 

Jarrett Allen to record 12+ rebounds (-125 at FanDuel)
Allen is averaging 21.2 rebound chances and 14.0 rebounds over his last five games, and this is a great matchup against the Pelicans. Yves Missi and Daniel Theis are completely outmatched against Allen, and Zion Williamson is questionable to suit up. Even if Williamson plays, the Pelicans rank 24th in the NBA in opponent offensive rebounding rate (27.4%), which is where Allen thrives. 

UConn, Favored by 35, Has Only Won by 35+ in 6 of 21 Non-Conference Games in Past 2 Seasons

By Craig Williams

Wagner +12.5 1st half (-122 at Fanduel)
Rutgers is under the spotlight thanks to landing top recruits Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper as part of a promising crop of new players. They’re ranked No. 25 and enter the season with fanfare after years of relative anonymity. There’s plenty to be excited about, but it will also be a process for Rutgers, who will need time to gel as a unit, and for their top freshman to mature on the fly. That won’t necessarily be easy, even in a game they’re expected to win handily. We’re looking at the first half and accounting for the challenges that face Rutgers head coach Steve Pikiell as he develops a collection of promising players into a unified squad. It certainly won’t happen in one half of basketball, and that should leave the door open for Wagner to keep things close(ish).

Rutgers -9.5 2nd half (-108 at FanDuel)
We won’t be surprised if some early miscommunications or blown assignments help keep Wagner — a gritty, defensive-minded team coming off of an NCAA Tournament trip last season — within reach for the opening 20 minutes. Rutgers’ talent and depth (on paper), however, is such that they should be able to establish full control of the contest in the second half. Even though Pikiell is regarded as a defensive-minded coach — the Scarlet Knights ranked 332nd in scoring and 171st in pace last season — there is some belief he will take the advice of his mentor, Jim Calhoun, and let his top flight players spread their wings. We may not see it as consistently early in the season, but likely enough in Game 1 to cover the second half.

Campbell under 56.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
Virginia has been a notoriously slow, rigid, defensive team that can be a nightmare to play against. We’re anticipating that carrying over into this season, at least in the early going under interim head coach Ron Sanchez. They were especially suffocating at home last season, where they held opponents to 51.4 PPG. Defense will need to serve as the calling card for the Cavaliers until they get into a rhythm offensively with new players in new roles. Campbell was not a particularly good offensive team in 2023-24 and performed even worse on the road. We expect Virginia to lean into its bread and butter in this contest and make it extremely difficult for Campbell to operate offensively.

Virginia under 74.5 points (-112 at FanDuel)
The Cavaliers are tasked with replacing four of their five top scorers from 2023-24 and will do so with a new head coach after Tony Bennett retired shortly before the season began. Ron Sanchez, the interim boss, was head coach at Charlotte from 2018-2023. And for what it’s worth, Sanchez’s Charlotte teams were mediocre, at best, offensively. In a vacuum, offense is often the last part of the equation to come together for teams. That theory is especially relevant when stifling defense has been so ingrained in a program’s DNA for well over a decade. We’re looking at a slow offensive start for the Cavaliers as they begin the journey of blending all of their new pieces together.

Sacred Heart +35 (-112 at DraftKings)
UConn experienced a great deal of turnover in its program, a natural occurrence when you win back-to-back national titles. They’re returning junior forward Alex Karaban, who started 77 of 78 games across his first two seasons. And he’ll be supported by a cast that includes returning players and a quality three-player freshman class led by five-star recruit Liam McNeely, so the cupboard isn’t bare. It’s going to take the Huskies some time to climb to their new lofty standards though. That certainly doesn’t mean they’re in danger of a close game. But consider that UConn “only” achieved a 35-plus point margin of victory in six of 21 non-conference games the last two seasons.

Georgia Tech - 23.5 (-110 at ESPNBET)
The Yellow Jackets are returning three starters from last season’s team, one that beat Duke, North Carolina, and Clemson among its 14 victories. Head coach Damon Stoudamire is entering his second season in the role, so it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll improve with a year of ACC experience under his belt. The expectation is they will be able to compete for a tournament bid this season. That’s enough upside to be bullish on them ahead of their opening night contest with first-year Division I program West Georgia. Transitioning from playing Division II to sharing the court with an ACC foe will be quite a large jump, and perhaps a shock to the system for some of the West Georgia Wolves.

Notre Dame over 83.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)
The Fighting Irish endured a disappointing 2023-24 season but are returning four starters from what was a young team. Among those players is sophomore guard Markus Burton, who averaged 17.5 points and 4.3 assists as a freshman. In fact, Notre Dame’s top six players in average minutes from last season are returning, and they’re joined by a couple of veteran transfers and four-star freshmen recruits. Stonehill ranked No. 308 in opponents’ scoring average, and were even more porous on the road. A Fighting Irish team that enters the season with continuity and confidence should have the chance to hit the ground running and put on a nice offensive showing against an overmatched guest.

Three Knicks Starters are Shooting Over 50%, Brunson is at 46.3%

By Chris Farley

Pacers -6.5 (-105 at Bovada)
It's been a tough stretch for the Orlando Magic. After losing Paulo Banchero, their rising star who was averaging 29 ppg, their offense has been abysmal. Without Banchero, in three games they've only averaged 93.3 ppg and rank dead-last in offensive efficiency. They're also 30th in effective field goal shooting percentage. Meanwhile, no one is shooting the ball better than Indiana over the last week of action. Making matters even worse, the visiting team is on its fifth straight road game, a journey that started before Halloween. We can only look at the home chalk.

Pistons vs. Hornets under 223 points (-110 at Bovada)
JB Bickerstaff might be finally bringing change to Detroit. Winners of three of their last four contests, the Pistons are rising early as a stout defensive program, ranked 7th overall in their last four contests. They also rank top-2 in rebounding percentage and top-6 in offensive rebounds during the same span, all signs of a roster that's winning with sweat-equity and effort. The Hornets, meanwhile, can't escape good defenses, having battled the Celtics twice and the Timberwolves recently in blowout losses. The result is an average total of just over 100 points per game. With a combined pace that should result in a very slow contest, low-scoring is this battle's best bet.

Knicks team total over 116.5 points (-110 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
This is not a good matchup for the Atlanta Hawks. The Knicks are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season, shooting under 39% against a stingy Houston defense on Monday, but that's bound to regress in big-time fashion tonight. Atlanta's defense ranks in the bottom-four units in the association, allowing 122 ppg. Worst of all, they're permitting the highest three-point shooting rate to opponents of any program in the NBA (39.8%). No team is better from beyond the arc so far this season (NYK makes long-balls at a 41.4% clip), and the visiting team will be highly motivated to correct their flaws from Monday.

Jalen Brunson top-points scorer (+100 on FanDuel)
If Jalen Brunson were removed from the Knicks' starting five, believe it or not, they would be a better shooting team. Three of the Knicks' starters shoot well over 50%, and Brunson is by far the "worst shooter" of all five (46.3%). Still, the dynamic point-guard takes close to 20 shots on average and he's led his team in scoring in five out of their six games so far. Today he'll oppose an Atlanta defense that ranks in the bottom-three in nearly every major category. On the other end, the Knicks' defense has been steadily improving, now ranking in the top-8 over their last three contests, which suggests the path is wide-open for Brunson to lead all players in scoring.

Warriors +6.5 (-105 at Bovada)
The Warriors profile as a very tough team to figure out, especially when facing them for the first time this season. Golden State has impressed through two weeks of NBA action, ranked 2nd in net rating (only OKC has done better), and boasting better defensive marks than the Celtic, Cavs, and Magic. Steve Kerr's commitment to developing his young roster has paid dividends, and their new talent has been sensational. Buddy Hield is making the biggest difference, adding 22 ppg on 52% from the floor off the bench. This is a better spot for Boston at home, but Golden State keeps finding ways to win. As the spread falls, it's clear that big-money bettors think this will be no walk in the park for the champs. We're chasing that steam.

Jayson Tatum under 4.5 threes (-154 at DraftKings)
Boston is known for its elite roster composition, which in turn results in "stars" like Jayson Tatum not having to handle the full-superstar load that we see on many other teams. Tatum has looked good, leading his team in scoring in six out of eight contests so far, but his three-point shooting has been far from stellar. In three November games, his long-ball percentage has dropped significantly, hitting just 31%. This season, he's hit 5+ threes in half of his starts, but Golden State holds opponents to a second-best 28.3% from beyond the arc. Things won't get any easier for him tonight, and you'd have to go back to 2021 to find the last time he made 5 or more threes against the Warriors. 

South Carolina Women Favored to Repeat, Bueckers and Watkins Lead for Top Player

Coming off a banner year, women’s college basketball has a lot of momentum coming into the season. There are superstars ready to fill the void left by the game-changers now in the WNBA and familiar names as the leading contenders to win the title. Here are a couple of current futures with odds via FanDuel:

• National Champion

  • South Carolina: +155

  • UConn: +400

  • USC: +450

  • Notre Dame: +600

  • Texas: +700

• John Wooden Award Winner

  • Paige Bueckers (UConn): +140

  • JuJu Watkins (USC): +140

  • MiLaysia Fulwiley (South Carolina): +1500

  • Hannah Hidalgo (Notre Dame): +1500

In the News 

• NFL trade deadline winners and losers: “For the NFL’s 32 teams, Tuesday was Election Day – i.e. electing whether or not to make a move ahead of the league’s 4 p.m. ET cutoff to execute trades for the 2024 season. Predictably, several clubs sat out the event entirely, while others rendered their decision(s) well in advance. There wasn’t a flood of marquee talent changing addresses over the final 24 hours – most of the available stars had already moved ahead of Week 9’s games – yet there was a fair amount of significant activity on the last day to tweak rosters, the potential future additions of free agents notwithstanding. Who got better? Who didn’t?” [USA Today]

• No clear favorite to win the NASCAR Cup Series title: “Roger Penske already won two sports car championships this season and heads to Phoenix Raceway with two chances to win a third consecutive NASCAR Cup Series title with both Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney in the winner-take-all season finale. The two Penske drivers will try to make it three consecutive Cup titles for “The Captain,” who won the 2022 title with Logano and last year’s championship with Blaney. They are up against Tyler Reddick of 23XI Racing, one of two teams embroiled in an antitrust lawsuit with NASCAR.” [Associated Press]

• American leads AC Milan to win over Real Madrid: “Christian Pulisic hailed AC Milan's win at the home of Champions League holders Real Madrid as a "really special night" after the United States star helped put the Italian side on the path to a memorable 3-1 victory at the Bernabeu on Tuesday. Pulisic sent in a corner for Malick Thiaw to head the visitors into a 12th-minute lead before further goals from Álvaro Morata and Tijjani Reijnders ensured back-to-back wins for Milan.” [ESPN]

• Chief draw over 20 million viewers on MNF: “ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 multicast? Good. No World Series game at the same time? Better. The Kansas City Chiefs? Best. A week after Giants-Steelers finished behind Dodgers-Yankees in the ratings (13.4 million to 13.6 million), Monday night’s broadcast of the Buccaneers at the Chiefs topped 20 million viewers. The numbers confirm that the Chiefs are becoming the new de facto America’s Team.” [NBC Sports]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Inter vs. Arsenal in Champions League Action on Paramount+ (or you can watch PSG vs. Atlético at the same time)

• 7:30pm: The Warriors take on the Celtics on ESPN

• 8pm: Hockey on TNT, as the Red Wings face the Blackhawks

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