Doncic Averaged 41 per Game Against Suns in Last 4 + PFF NFL Insights

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Men’s college basketball futures

• NBA: Pacers have allowed six of eight opponents to score at least 115

• Column: NBA Q&A with TNT Sports NBA Analyst Sean Little

• More NBA: Denver has won 5 of 6

• College Football: Iowa ranks 132nd out of 134 teams in passing yards per game (119.0)

• Sportmoney x PFF: A look at quarterbacks going into Week 10

• Overtime: The wide gap between the good and bad teams in the NFL

The first big men’s college basketball matchup of the season is tonight, with No. 1 Kansas hosting No. 9 North Carolina (7pm on ESPN2). Kansas is a 7.5-point favorite in the game and sits anywhere from +900 (BetMGM) to +1300 (FanDuel) to win the National Championship. Here are a few men’s college basketball futures, via FanDuel:

• Battle 4 Atlantis Winner (Nov. 27-29): Gonzaga +135, Arizona +180, Indiana +600, Louisville +1000

• Maui Invitational Winner (Nov. 25-27): UConn +170, Auburn +310, North Carolina +400, Iowa State +430, Michigan State +1300

• ACC Regular Season Winner: Duke -105, North Carolina +380, Clemson +1200, Wake Forest +1200

• Big Ten Regular Season Winner: Purdue +450, Indiana +550, UCLA +850, Oregon +850, Michigan State +850, Ohio State +850

• Big 12 Regular Season Winner: Kansas +220, Houston +230, Iowa State +500, Arizona +750, Baylor +850

• SEC Regular Season Winner: Alabama +220, Auburn +250, Tennessee +470, Texas A&M +1200

• Big East Regular Season Winner (via Bet365): UConn +100, Creighton +350, St. John’s +500, Marquette +600 (Note: you can’t bet on St. John’s if you live in NY)

• National Champion: Duke +950, UConn +1100, Houston +1100, Alabama +1100, Gonzaga +1100, Kansas +1300

If you stay up late or aren’t on the East Coast, New Mexico vs. No. 22 UCLA (-4.5) at 11pm on CBS Sports is worth a watch.

In today’s newsletter, Craig covers NBA Eastern Conference home games, Chris has the Western Conference, and Jack is tracking tonight’s college football matchups.

- Abe Rakov

P.S. Miss our Friday NFL coverage? We launched Sportmoney Daily to give you research and analysis 7 days a week. If you want our daily coverage (including before kickoff on NFL Sundays), upgrade to Sportmoney Daily on our website today and we’ll give you your first month free (it’s just $2.99/month after that).

Undefeated Cavs Face Warriors, Who are 7-1 Straight-Up and Against the Spread

By Craig Williams

Pistons -1 (-108 at DraftKings)
We don’t trust the Hawks as far as we can throw them, which isn’t to say we trust the Pistons. We’re sticking with the home team in this spot nonetheless. It’s not a bad idea to consider the emotional journey the Hawks experienced after beating the Knicks with a fourth-quarter comeback on Wednesday. The atmosphere was lively at State Farm Arena with a vocal collection of Knicks fans in attendance — the largest home crowd since the opener. It’s easier to dig deeper at home against a big-market team than it will be on the road against a bottom-feeding side like the Pistons. Making matters worse is the Hawks’ porous defense. The best way to help an offensively challenged team is to make it easy on them, which is what the Lakers did on Monday when they fell to the Pistons as 6.5-point favorites.

Pelicans vs. Magic under 213.5 points (-105 at ESPNBET)
It’s been a rough go for the Magic since Paolo Bancharo injured his oblique. They lost that game against the Bulls and the subsequent four contests. They averaged 115.5 points across their first four games; they’re averaging 98 points over their last five. The Pelicans have been bad too. They’re sporting the league’s No. 21-ranked offensive efficiency and are down several key players tonight, including C.J. McCollum, Jordan Hawkins, and Dejounte Murray. Not to mention, both Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy are questionable and doubtful, respectively.

Hornets over 114.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
The Hornets enjoy playing at home, at least from a scoring standpoint. They average five more points at Spectrum Center compared to on the road. They’re hosting a Pacers team that ranks No. 24 in defensive efficiency and allows 120.5 points per game. They can score though, which will force the Hornets, led by LaMelo Ball and his 28.1 points and 6.0 assists per game, to play keep-up. Meanwhile, second-year wing Brandon Miller is coming off of his season-high in scoring with 19 points. Once Miller gets into a rhythm — and perhaps tonight is a prime opportunity to do so — the Hornets will have some firepower. The Pacers have allowed six of eight opponents to score at least 115 points — and four of six opponents in non-OT games.

LaMelo Ball under 4.5 three pointers made (-146 at FanDuel)
Ball has been stellar from range this season, converting on 39.4 percent of his 11.8 attempts per game. He will be busy from distance tonight in what looks like a high-scoring game. However, the Pacers defend the three relatively well, limiting attempts (11th fewest) and accuracy (6th lowest opponents’ percentage). In eight games, Ball has split the over/under right down the middle. Furthermore, Ball is shooting better on the road in the early going. We need to acknowledge how tiny the sample is, but it’s a factor nonetheless when we’re considering the volume of threes Ball is likely to attempt. Stingy three-point defense plus Ball’s slightly worse accuracy at home could be the difference between a 4 for 12 and a 5 for 12 performance from beyond the arc.

Warriors +4.5 (-105 at ESPNBET)
The Warriors own the NBA’s top net rating with strong offensive and defensive efficiencies. The same can be said for the Cavaliers, who rank No. 3 in net rating. The Cavs may be undefeated, but the Warriors have been nearly as dominant with a 7-1 record straight-up and against the spread, including a win on the road against the Celtics. It’s easy to consider the likelihood of a letdown after such a big win, but we’re going to fade those odds with the long-tenured trio of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Steve Kerr leading the way. We’ll stop short of calling this a “revenge” game, but it’s reasonable to suggest that those three in particular have enough lingering bitterness from 2016 that they’ll wait one more night before they allow themselves to take the foot off of the pedal.

Labar: A Q&A with Action Network and TNT Sports NBA Analyst Sean Little

With the Knicks, Nets and Sixers all within a very easy travel distance to where I am in Manhattan, maybe this will be the year I jump on the NBA train? I grew up in a basketball family: My dad played in college, my brother was dedicated to the game, and after I didn’t make Varsity my Junior year, I hung up the sneaks and proceeded to cover basketball in the college basketball mecca — Tobacco Road.

I love the game. It’s not that I choose not to follow it, but when I’ve been covering baseball, hockey and college football over the last several years, it’s a lot for your girl to keep up with. Better late than never though, and the energy here up north when it comes to professional ball is something much different than the feeling in Charlotte surrounding the Hornets (not a knock on any Hornets fans, Buzz City you’re great).

With the start of a new season, I called in reinforcements to help me with this column. He knows and understands the NBA better than anybody I know, and is a good friend and colleague of mine who has been so passionate about the game — he really knows his stuff.

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

In Last 4 Matchups Against Phoenix, Doncic has Averaged 41 Points a Game

By Chris Farley

Suns vs. Mavs over 230.5 points (-105 at Bookmaker)
In game one the Suns played their best defense and beat Dallas in a low-scoring game, but this one feels different. The Mavericks play faster at home and these are two of the most talented offenses in the NBA. Regression back to the mean (all 3 of their matchups went way over this number last season) strongly suggests that more scoring is coming. It helps that the Suns, who are in a more vulnerable position as the road team and against a program seeking revenge, are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA (3rd in true shooting percentage). Dallas should be aggressive early, and Phoenix is a great team to chase if we're looking for a big scoreboard.

Luka over 31.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
By his standards, Luka Doncic is having a slow start. The Slovenian star is only shooting 40% from the field, a massive drop-off compared to any of his previous seasons (he shot 48.7% last year). Doncic is still able to do damage, averaging 28 ppg, but he's due for a bigger performance. Friday is an ideal situation for that to happen. Doncic doesn't like the Suns, specifically Devin Booker, who he seems to spat with in every battle. In his last four matchups against Phoenix, Doncic has scored 41 ppg, including a 40-burger this season on October 26th. We have no reason to expect anything different.

Rockets +9 (-110 at Bookmaker)
When a team finally loses after starting perfect, it takes off a ton of pressure. It also makes losing a lot easier. The OKC Thunder finally dropped a contest on Wednesday, losing to the Nuggets on the road as (ridiculous) 7.5-point favorites. But there's no rest for the weary — a Rockets' squad with momentum and confidence is headed their way. The Rockets recently got big wins against San Antonio, Dallas, and New York, and they're 4th in net rating the last week. Gritty, stingy on defense, and playing with great chemistry on offense, the Rockets are a bad matchup for a program looking for a rebound.

Nuggets -3.5 (-105 at BetOnline and Bovada)
NBA teams should be on notice: The Nuggets are back. Denver picked themselves up after a less-than-inspiring start to their season, winning five of their last six games. Their victory two nights ago against the Thunder, the same squad that annihilated them in the opener, reminded us how great they can be. Four starters scored over 23 points, and Russell Westbrook had his most impactful game yet (29 points on 10-15 from the field, 6 rebounds, 6 assists). Denver is a top-7 offense and defense over their last three contests, and the Heat just aren't playing at the same level. We're chasing the former champs.

Blazers team total under 104.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)
Portland's long road trip continues, on their fourth in a row and playing in Minnesota tonight, and they looked lifeless last night at San Antonio. One of the worst shooting teams in the NBA (28th in true shooting percentage), now they'll be forced to face one of the association's premiere defenses, a Timberwolves' squad that's 6th in opponent shooting percentage and 3rd in opponent three-point percentage over the last week. Unlike the visitors, Minnesota cruised over Chicago last night, outscoring their foe 79-54 in the second half. Both teams are tired, but Minnesota has home court, momentum, and a significantly better defense.

Lakers -8 (-105 at Bookmaker)
This is a premiere spot for the L.A. Lakers. The Philadelphia 76ers are now without Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, their two best players, and this is the third leg of a long, West Coast road trip. Through seven games, Philadelphia is among the worst programs in the NBA, rated 28th overall, and 26th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers have been missing Anthony Davis, who's working through an ankle injury, a big part of why they've lost four of their last five games. After a 3-0 start, this profiles as the perfect matchup for the Lake-show to return home and get a resounding win against a program that's been outscored by 8.6 ppg.

New Mexico Games are 7-2 to the Over with an Average Cover Margin of 15.1 Points

By Jack Dougherty

Rice team total over 20.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
The Memphis defense is a lost unit right now. The Tigers have given up an average of 38.7 points and 454.7 yards over their last three games. Memphis gives up a ton of explosive plays, especially in the passing game, and E.J. Warner loves to air it out with his career 11.1 yards per completion. Rice is coming off its best performance of the season in a 24-10 win against Navy, and it can keep the momentum rolling against this defense. 

UCLA +6.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
UCLA was set up to fail to start the season. After a road game against Hawaii in Week 1, the Bruins went through a five-game gauntlet against Indiana, LSU, Oregon, Penn State and Minnesota. That stretch understandably didn’t go well with a new head coach and a fresh roster, but it toughened them up for a late-season surge. This is a much different UCLA team after back-to-back road wins against Rutgers and Nebraska, and Ethan Garbers is playing great football.

Brendan Sullivan under 131.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Iowa ranks 132nd out of 134 teams in passing yards per game (119.0) this season. Navy, which runs the triple-option offense, is a more prolific passing offense. Iowa might as well be a triple-option offense under Sullivan. Over the last two weeks, Sullivan has attempted only 24 passes and rushed 17 times. The Hawkeyes will continue to ride Kaleb Johnson on the ground. 

New Mexico vs. San Diego State over 65.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Death, taxes and New Mexico overs. New Mexico games are 7-2 to the over with an average cover margin of 15.1 points, which is the highest mark in the country this season. Four of the Lobos’ last five games have reached at least 89 total points. Their defense ranks 132nd in opponent yards per play (7.0) and 131st in points allowed per game (41.5), and they have one of the best rushing offenses in the country behind dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier.

Devon Dampier to score 2+ touchdowns (+320 at FanDuel)
This price is too high on one of the most explosive rushing QBs in college football. Dampier is averaging 8.0 yards per carry this season, and he’s scored at least two rushing touchdowns in five of his nine starts. San Diego State played a similar quarterback in Washington State’s John Mateer two weeks ago and let him score twice on the ground. 

(Futures)

Ole Miss to make the College Football Playoff (+162 at FanDuel)
This is a misprice by FanDuel. Ole Miss is only +114 to beat Georgia at home this weekend, and its price to make the College Football Playoff should be close to the same. If the Rebels knock off the Bulldogs, they’ll be big favorites against Florida and Mississippi State to close the season. A 10-2 record with wins against Georgia and South Carolina will get them into the 12-team playoff. If you like Ole Miss this weekend, look at this price to make the CFP instead of the moneyline. 

LSU to win the national championship (+4500 at FanDuel)
This is a similar thought process to the Ole Miss future. LSU is a short home underdog against Alabama this weekend, but it’s tough to roll into Death Valley under the lights and get a win. If the Tigers can pull off the upset, they finish the season against Florida, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Win out, and they’re in the College Football Playoff. With no dominant favorite in college football this year, this is a good time to take a shot on a talented team with an excellent quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier. 

Sportmoney x PFF Week 9 Rundown: Quarterbacks

• Justin Herbert has been spectacular off of play action passing concepts this season: 

  • 92.2 Passing Grade (1st) 

  • 50/69 

  • 643 yards (T-8th) 

  • 3 TDs / 1 INT 

  • 6 Big Time Throws (T-1st, Sam Darnold) 

  • 32 completions gaining a first down (9th) 

• Lamar Jackson is known for his jaw-dropping playmaking ability, but he is also one of the most productive red-zone passers in the NFL:

  • 17 TDs (1st) 

  • 20 completions gaining a first down (2nd) 

  • 75.4 Passing Grade (7th) 

• There has been no better QB in the 4th quarter & overtime than Patrick Mahomes this season: 

  • 89.5 PFF Grade (1st) 

  • 38/52 

  • 438 yards 

  • 4 TDs / 0 INTs 

  • 0 turnover-worthy plays 

  • On throws 10+ yards: 

    • 11/13 

    • 212 yards 

    • 2 TDs / 0 INTs 

  • On throws 20+ yards: 

    • 1/1 

    • 35 yards 

    • 1 TD / 0 INTs 

  • 3rd & 4th down passing: 

    • 12/19 

    • 119 yards 

    • 2 TDs / 0 INTs 

    • 14 completions gaining a first down (3rd) 

• Daniel Jones has been great targeting single coverage this season:

  • 86.2 PFF Grade (6th) 

  • 69 completions (1st) 

  • 825 yards (6th) 

  • 5 TDs / 0 INTs 

  • 46 completions gaining a first down

Read the full Sportmoney x PFF rundown, which also includes running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, on our website: sportmoney.com.

In the News 

• A bigger gap between the NFL haves and have nots this season: “Nine NFL teams have nearly no chance nine weeks into the season. The Patriots, Raiders, Jaguars, Browns, Giants, Saints and Panthers are 2-7. The Dolphins and Titans are 2-6. On the opposite side, 11 teams have at least six wins. So much for parity. The league’s goal has always been to have every team stay in contention for as long as possible. But 28.1% of the teams — more than a quarter of the league — will likely spend the second half battling for draft positioning.” [Associated Press]

• Bronny James heads to the G League: “The Los Angeles Lakers have assigned rookie Bronny James to their G League affiliate, South Bay, and sources told ESPN that he is expected to debut for the team Saturday against Salt Lake City. James will be on the Lakers' roster for Friday's game against the Philadelphia 76ers, then will rejoin South Bay, according to sources. The organization's current plan is for James to play in only G League home games as he shuttles between the Lakers and South Bay, sources said.” [ESPN]

• A look at NASCAR’s closing weekend: “The NASCAR Cup season comes to a close Sunday at Phoenix Raceway with the crowning of a champoion. Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick and William Byron will race for the championship. Logano seeks his third Cup title. Blaney looks to become the first driver to win back-to-back titles since Jimmie Johnson’s record run of five consecutive championships from 2006-10. Reddick and Byron look to claim their first Cup crown.” [NBC Sports]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: No. 9 North Carolina travels to No. 1 Kansas for a high-powered early season men’s college basketball matchup on ESPN2

• 7:30pm: Suns vs. Mavs followed by the 76ers and Lakers at 10pm, both on ESPN

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