Dolphins (+2.5) are MNF Underdogs Trending Up + Looking at the Over (49)

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NFL winners keep on winning

• NFL: Rams average 12.6 2nd-half points per game

• NBA: Sengun grabs 11.1 rebounds a game, tonight’s total is 10.5

• NBA Cup: A look at contenders to win the in-season tournament

• Overtime: Bears evaluating “everything” after latest loss

The NFL’s top teams didn’t make it easy on themselves yesterday but gave the league the drama it wants. The Chiefs scored the last 13 points of the game after going down 14-3 in the 2nd quarter and won by two after blocking Denver’s 35-yard field goal attempt as time expired. Then last night, the Lions outscored the Texans 19-0 in the 2nd half to win by three via a Jake Bates’ 52-yard field goal as time expired.

The Bills and Eagles are riding five-game winning streaks and the Steelers have won four in a row. There is still nearly half a season to go, but with eight teams currently holding a winning percentage of .700 or better, we can’t wait to see what the NFL playoffs have in store.

In today’s newsletter, Chris takes a look at the Monday Night Football matchup between the Dolphins and Rams, Jack covers tonight’s NBA games and Craig looks ahead to the NBA Cup, which starts tomorrow.

— Abe Rakov

Rams Defense Allows 8.5 Yards per Pass (32nd) and 225 Passing Yards per Game (23rd)

By Chris Farley

Dolphins +2.5 (-105 at Bovada)
There's a reason this spread has dropped steadily all week, although we're finally seeing some correction in the marketplace now. This is a situation that we love. The Miami Dolphins' head coach, Mike McDaniel, has a history against the L.A. Rams. As a part of the 49ers staff, McDaniels' offenses averaged 27.4 ppg over six seasons against the Rams. At 2-6, this is also a desperate Dolphins' team, coming off their best performance in a long time in a near-win at Orchard Park. This one's not about the Rams; it's about a perfect spot for Miami to explode. 

Dolphins vs. Rams over 49 points (-105 at Bookmaker)
This is our favorite bet of the night. McDaniel's familiarity with the L.A. venue and Sean McVay's offense against Miami's porous defense (27th in opponent points/play) is too good of a recipe to pass up. The Dolphins' defense has been touch and go, but against better operations they quickly fold. In three of their last five games, they've allowed 28 points or more (TEN, ARI, BUF). The difference now? Tua is back. We're betting that McDaniel will have a masterful game plan and Stafford, who looks like a top-5 QB lately, will move the ball all game. We project this at 55.

De'Von Achane over 125 rushing/receiving yards (+155 at FanDuel)
De'Von Achane, one of the league's fastest players, is dying to have a breakout game. We think this one could be it. Most people probably think Mike McDaniel and the Miami offense is predicated on a strong passing game. The reality is McDaniel ranks top-10 in rush-play percentage (47.2%), and Achane is bound to be featured more after last week. The 23-year-old stacked up 121 total yards and two TDs in a near-win at Orchard Park. Like always, he benefited from having Tua back, and we love the speedster to rack up yards in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Tua Tagovailoa 275+ passing yards (+205 at DraftKings)
Considering the way we feel about the total in this game, this prop feels like a steal. The Rams' defense has shown improvement in recent weeks, led by standout rookie linebacker Jared Verse. The reality is, overall they've been very poor against throwers, allowing 8.5 yards per pass (32nd) and 225 passing yards per game (23rd). Miami could easily be playing catchup since their defense isn't much better, and even if it's a dogfight the narrative is there for an exceptionally productive game from the Miami air-raid.

Dolphins vs. Rams 1st quarter under 9.5 points (+105 at DraftKings)
Despite the many points we expect Monday night, we wouldn't be surprised if it was a slow start. The Rams are one of the slowest starting teams in the NFL, averaging just 1.6 ppg in the first 15 minutes. They've failed to score a point in the first quarter in three out of their last five contests. On the other side, no statistics are more shocking than Miami's 32nd rank in points per play and touchdowns per game. With Tua they're obviously more capable, but the off and on nature of his role this year and a Dolphins' offense riddled with injuries hasn't helped their chemistry. We'll look for humble beginnings.

Rams 2nd half over 12.5 points (-125 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
The Rams don't start fast but they know how to recover. Matthew Stafford and the Rams' offense have had to play catchup in five out of eight of their games, often falling behind from a big first quarter deficit. Line movement tells us that sharp bettors think Miami will be very feisty, which could conceivably lead to Stafford and his colleagues in comeback mode again. Regardless, the Rams average 12.6 ppg in the second half this season, a top-10 mark. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy, we don't trust that a middling Miami defense can stop Stafford when it matters.

Low-Expectation Nets Have Gone 8-2 Against the Spread this Season

By Jack Dougherty

Clippers +7 (-110 at Bet365)
Chet Holmgren went down with an injury early in Sunday night’s game against the Warriors, and it’s not a coincidence the Thunder gave up a season-high 127 points and lost by 11 at home. Oklahoma City is extremely weak in the paint without Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, so they likely won’t have an answer for Ivica Zubac down low. This is a good spot to back the Clippers, which are coming in on a four-game winning streak.

Ivica Zubac over 28.5 points + rebounds (-115 at FanDuel)
The Thunder have no choice but to go small with Holmgren and Hartenstein out of the lineup, so the Clippers would be wise to feed their 7-footer early and often in this matchup. Zubac should be able to pile up easy baskets off pick-and-rolls with James Harden and second-chance opportunities off misses. The center ranks fifth in the NBA in rebound chances per game (20.2), and he’ll be able to convert most of them against this undersized lineup. 

Alperen Sengun over 10.5 rebounds (-106 at FanDuel)
This a great matchup for Sengun to crash the glass. The Wizards rank fourth in the NBA in pace, 25th in shooting percentage and dead-last in rebound rate. Sengun ranks fourth in the league in rebound chances per game (20.3), and he’s grabbing 11.1 boards per game this season. 

Alexandre Sarr under 6.5 rebounds (-105 at DraftKings)
This is correlated with Sengun’s over, as Sarr will be battling him for rebounds all night. Sengun should be able to win that matchup, which is nothing new for centers going up against Sarr. The rookie has gone under this line in four of his last five games, and the Rockets rank No. 1 in the NBA in opponent defensive rebound rate (69.0%). 

Nets -1.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Oddsmakers still aren’t giving the Nets enough credit. Brooklyn was supposed to be one of the bottom-feeders in the NBA entering the year, but it’s gone 8-2 against the spread and continues to exceed expectations. Zion Williamson won’t be suiting up on Monday night, and the Pelicans have gone 0-3 with an average losing margin of 20.0 points in their last three games without him. 

Kyshawn George over 11.5 points (-111 at FanDuel)
This is strictly a volume play on a promising rookie. George has been handling a much bigger workload since Kyle Kuzma went down with a groin injury. The Miami product has played at least 34 minutes in three straight games, and he’s averaging 13.3 shot attempts and 17.3 points per game in that span. The Rockets are a tough defensive matchup, but George should see enough volume to clear this number for the fourth straight game.

Chris Paul 2+ made threes (-115 at FanDuel)
Paul has made at least two three-pointers in six of his last eight games, and this is a great matchup for him to get some open looks. The Kings rank 24th in the NBA in opponent three-point attempts per game (39.8). De’Aaron Fox will live with Paul settling for threes, so the veteran point guard should get up at least six or seven attempts in this game.

A Look at NBA Cup Contenders with In-Season Tournament Starting Tomorrow

By Craig Williams

Boston Celtics (+425 at DraftKings)
The Celtics own the NBA’s No. 4 net rating and are top-five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re also top in the league in three-pointers attempted and three-pointers made. It’s going to take a team to match the Celtics bucket-for-bucket or a defense that is able to smother them around the three-point line. The Warriors didn’t match the Celtics from distance, but essentially took route No. 1 to take down the C’s on the road. The Pacers, meanwhile, outlasted the Celtics, largely in part to holding them to 19 for 57 (.333) from three-point range and 40.4 percent from the field overall. We won’t argue against the Celtics’ position as Emirates NBA Cup favorites. There’s simply a lot a team has to do in order to take them out.

New York Knicks (+1000 at Caesars)
The Knicks are the second favorite to win the NBA Cup at FanDuel but enter the tournament with more value at other sportsbooks. The new-look Knicks aren’t clicking on all cylinders yet, but they’ve shown flashes of meeting preseason expectations. That includes Karl-Anthony Towns, who is averaging a career high in rebounds and his best scoring average since 2021-22. Metrics suggest the Knicks should be better than their 4-5 mark, but cue Bill Parcells … “You are what your record says you are.” In theory, winning the NBA Cup is low on the Knicks’ list of priorities. There’s still work to be done building chemistry, developing a thin rotation, and maintaining defensive consistency — objectives aimed at peaking in the spring.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+1000 at FanDuel)
Julius Randle, the main piece that came over in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns, seems to have found a comfort level in Minnesota. He’s surrendered raw production for elevated efficiency — he’s shooting 55.1% from the floor and 44.7% from three with a career-best player efficiency rating. Of course, when it comes to the Wolves, the conversation revolves around star guard Anthony Edwards, who has the ability to carry a team over extended stretches. The challenge with laying the odds on Minnesota — in addition to other Western Conference rivals — is the depth on that side of the bracket. But there’s still reason to look at the Wolves as a team on the rise, and a unit capable of getting hot at the right time.

Cleveland Cavaliers (+1000 at FanDuel)
The Cavs stand out as a prime “sleeper” to claim this season’s NBA Cup, based on relative odds at least. They have the league’s second-best net rating — best in the East — and feature a dominant 9-2 mark against the spread. New head coach Kenny Atkinson deserves his early Coach of the Year attention (+185 at FanDuel) for ramping up the Cavs’ offensive production without sacrificing the stingy defense that had become the Cavs’ calling card over the past three seasons. All eyes will be on their Nov. 19 matchup in Boston against the NBA Cup-favorite Celtics. It doesn’t require a vivid imagination to envision the Cavs remaining undefeated heading into that prime tilt. When it comes to the Cavs (and Celtics for that matter), consider that point differential is a key element in determining who will land the fourth and final knockout spot in each conference. Whether the Cavs — or any team for that matter — takes the NBA Cup seriously is difficult to ascertain from afar. But in theory, the Cavs may have extra motivation to build a strong point-differential in their Cup matchups.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+1200 at FanDuel)
The Thunder’s odds are lengthening in the wake of big man Chet Holmgren’s pelvic fracture. His absence will be felt heavily both offensively and defensively for a team that is tied with the Cavs for the league’s top net rating. Holmgren’s 2.6 blocks per game naturally lead the team by a wide margin and account for a heavy percentage of the team’s league-leading 7.2 swats per game. That lack of size — the Thunder are already without free agent big Isaiah Hartenstein — figures to prove problematic against the likes of Anthony Davis, Victor Wembanyama, and perhaps even the Suns’ Jusuf Nurkic, particularly when it comes to rebounding. It’s not uncommon for teams to remain competitive in the short-term even after losing a key player, but we’re not bullish on the Thunder’s chances of overcoming this absence over the course of the tournament.

Denver Nuggets (+1400 at Caesars)
The Nuggets are riding a five-game winning streak after a bit of a rugged start, thanks in large part to better shooting. Another “sleeper” relative to the odds and their competitors, the Nuggets are going to be a threat as long as two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic is in the fold. Jokic, the early favorite to claim another MVP award, is averaging a triple-double and currently enjoying career marks in minutes, points, assists, and steals. He has support in the likes of Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Christian Braun, each averaging 35-plus minutes and 16-plus points. One factor to consider ahead of the tournament is that the Nuggets host their toughest two group stage opponents, the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors, at home where they are 72-17 since 2022.

In the News 

• Bears rethinking offense after embarassing loss to Patriots: “Bears coach Matt Eberflus said he will evaluate "everything from the top to the bottom" following Chicago's third consecutive loss, a 19-3 defeat to the New England Patriots on Sunday. That includes potentially changing who calls offensive plays, Eberflus acknowledged. ‘We're looking at everything,’ Eberflus said. Six days after declaring that Shane Waldron would continue in his role as offensive coordinator after Chicago lost 29-9 at Arizona, Eberflus did not rule out making a change at offensive playcaller after the Bears' struggles were magnified by the Patriots.” [ESPN]

• Logano wins third NASCAR title: “Joey Logano is a three-time Cup Series champion. Logano took the lead from William Byron shortly after the NASCAR Cup Series championship race's final restart on lap 260 and led the rest of the way at Phoenix as he held off his Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney in the final laps.” [Yahoo Sports]

• Alcaraz loses first match at ATP Finals: “Carlos Alcaraz looked little like the player who won two Grand Slams this year in a 6-1, 7-5 loss to Casper Ruud at the ATP Finals on Monday. It marked Ruud’s first victory over Alcaraz in five career meetings and the result could make it difficult for Alcaraz to advance from the round-robin stage at the season-ending event for the year’s top eight players. Alcaraz won the French Open and Wimbledon this year to boost his career total to four Grand Slam titles. But he also struggled at the Paris Masters recently and dropped behind Alexander Zverev to No. 3 in the rankings this week.” [Associated Press]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 8pm: Clippers vs. Thunder on NBA TV

• 8:15pm: Dolphins vs. Rams on Monday Night Football on ESPN

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