Slow-Starting Bucks (-6) are Finally Shaking Off Rust

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: CFP brings excitement in year 1

• NBA: Pelicans scoring just 101 points a game without Zion Williamson

• NCAAM: Houston was 3-1 to the under after a loss last year

• More NBA: Pacers are top-6 in fast-break points, paint-points, and assists per game

• Overtime: A look at young QBs across the NFL

The latest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings were released last night, and the Miami and Georgia losses shook things up. The top four teams are Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State, but only two of the four could receive byes since only one school per conference is eligible.

The Big Ten has four of the top five teams, but No. 5 Indiana plays at No. 2 Ohio State on Nov. 23rd, so at least part of that logjam will get figured out on the field (both teams are still very likely to make the playoff no matter who wins). BYU sits at No. 6 and is in solid shape to get a bye with a Big 12 title. The SEC has five of the top 12 teams, giving the SEC + Big Ten combination nine of the top 12. No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 9 Miami are sandwiched in between.

At least in season one, the College Football Playoff has brought a ton more importance to regular season games. It’s going to be an exciting finish and nearly every team that makes the field is going to have a shot to win a championship. What a win for college football.

In today’s newsletter, Jack and Chris cover the NBA slate and Craig has college basketball action.

— Abe Rakov

Anthony Edwards has Made at Least 4 Threes in 10 of 11 Games this Season

By Jack Dougherty

Victor Wembanyama over 4.5 steals + blocks (+100 at Bet365)
It’s no secret why Wembanyama is a heavy favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. The Spurs big man leads the NBA with 3.9 blocks per game, while no other player averages more than 2.8. Wembanyama averages a combined 5.3 steals + blocks a game and this is a great matchup against a sloppy Wizards offense. Washington ranks 25th in opponent blocks/game (6.4) and 21st in opponent steals per game (9.0).

Devin Booker over 35.5 points + assists (-115 at FanDuel)
Booker has assumed a larger scoring and playmaking role since Kevin Durant went down with a calf injury. Over the last two games, Booker is averaging 21.0 field-goal attempts and 17.0 potential assists. The Suns guard put up 35 points + assists against the Kings over the weekend, and he went just 9-22 from the field and 3-10 from three. He should clear this number with a better shooting performance. 

Yves Missi over 6.5 rebounds (+105 at DraftKings)
The Pelicans are relying on Missi to play big minutes and control the glass with the rash of injuries they’re currently dealing with. The rookie center played a season-high 29 minutes in his last start against the Nets and reeled in 11 boards on 21 rebound chances. The Thunder are a poor rebounding team without Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein in the lineup, so this is a solid matchup for Missi.

Pelicans team total under 103.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
New Orleans struggles to score with Zion Williamson out of the lineup, as it’s averaging just 101.0 points over their last four games without him. Brandon Ingram is the only healthy Pelican who can create his own shot, and the Thunder can throw multiple long defenders at him throughout the game. OKC’s defensive weakness is down low, but New Orleans doesn’t have the healthy personnel to exploit that. 

De’Aaron Fox under 4.5 assists (+125 at Bet365)
Fox dished out eight assists in his last matchup against the Suns, but they came in 41 minutes of action because the game went to overtime. That performance was an anomaly for Fox, who averages just 10.5 potential assists and 4.7 assists per game. The Kings point guard has gone under this line in five of his last seven games, and Phoenix gives up the second-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards.

Jabari Smith under 10.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Smith’s role in this offense has diminished since the start of the season. The former No. 3 overall pick is averaging just 24.2 minutes and 8.2 field-goal attempts over his last five games, and he’s gone under this line in three of those five. The Clippers have also been shutting down power forwards all year, as they’re giving up the fewest points in the NBA to opposing PFs. 

Anthony Edwards 4+ made threes (-125 at FanDuel)
This is a surprisingly cheap line. Edwards ranks second in the NBA in three-point attempts per game (11.6), and he’s made at least four threes in 10 of his 11 games this season. The Trail Blazers rank 28th in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per game (15.0) and 29th in threes allowed to opposing shooting guards per game (4.4). Edwards is 13-25 (52.0%) from deep in two games against Portland this year. 

St. John’s Ranks in the Top-40 in Both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency

By Craig Williams

NC State over 81.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
The Wolfpack are off to a solid offensive start through a pair of contests. They rank 19th in offensive efficiency and went over this number in one of those two games. We’re considering the environment at Lenovo Center, where NC State scored at a higher and more efficient clip last season. It will take time before teams gel and establish an identity, but for now, the Wolfpack are receiving double-digit scoring from six players on their roster, so the odds of the team struggling due to one player’s off night are lower. Coastal Carolina has played better defensively through two games, but it’s too early to conclude that they’re a better defensive unit than the one that ranked 306th last season.

Wake Forest -14.5 first half (-108 at FanDuel)
Wake Forest enters the season with sights on an NCAA Tournament bid, and they’re off to a 3-0 start. They’re 1-2 against the spread, which we’re not going to dwell over, but we’re going to lean into the first-half number nonetheless. The Deacons feature a quality senior scorer in Hunter Sallis, a former five-star recruit who transferred after struggling for two seasons at Gonzaga. He’s joined by fellow double-digit scorers and seniors Cameron Hildreth and Tre’Von Spillers. Wake Forest hasn’t found its full gear as a unit just yet, but they finished 39th in offensive efficiency in 2023-24. They’re playing sound defense though, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency. South Carolina Upstate is struggling in both categories in the early going, further supporting a look at Wake Forest.

California vs. Vanderbilt under 160.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
Perhaps we’d take a different position if this was the over/under on team GPAs, but we’re looking at two teams that are projected to finish at or near the bottom of their respective conferences. Vanderbilt and Cal are in states of transition with a number of new players operating under first- and second-year head coaches, respectively. Together, they’re a combined 4-0 to the over, but both teams have beaten up on defensively challenged mid-major cupcakes. Despite bearish regular-season expectations, both Cal and Vandy figure to prove more stout on defense. And it’s not just the higher caliber of opponent that each team is facing that we’re considering. It’s doing so under the context of relatively unfamiliar rosters that are still building chemistry.

St. John’s -23.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
The Red Storm are on a mission to snag a ticket to the dance in March after being left without a bid last season, and they enter this contest with a significant advantage on paper. Their size, both in the front and backcourt, should allow them to dominate the glass and rack up second-chance points while limiting Wagner to one shot per possession. Digging further into the early offensive and defensive profiles suggests the Red Storm are in position for a convincing victory. They rank top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Wagner is struggling immensely on the offensive end, and we expect them to struggle scoring the ball again tonight.

Kadary Richmond over 10.5 rebounds + assists (-130 at FanDuel)
Richmond’s calling card in recent seasons has been his ability to stuff the statsheet, and he’s doing the same thing through two games with the Red Storm. He’s averaging 7.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists in the season’s early going, so reaching a combined 11 assists-plus-rebounds appears very manageable on paper. St. John’s has been strong defensively, suggesting they’ll smother a Wagner team that has not fared well offensively. In theory, more contested and errant shots will provide Richmond the opportunity to clean the glass — he currently owns a career-best 13% rebounding rate after finishing at 12.4% last season. He also enters with a 25.6% assists rate, and he’ll theoretically have plenty of opportunities to rack up enough assists to push his stat line to the over.

Louisiana under 53.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
This is more about Houston bouncing back from a loss to Auburn over the weekend and doing so with their patented suffocating defense. They were 3-1 to the under following a loss last season. And while that tally is from the combined total, we know Houston has a lot to do with low-scoring contests. The Cougars held eight of 13 non-conference foes to under 53 points in 2023, and their defensive rating is actually better through two games this season than last season’s top-ranked mark. Louisiana, for their part, have been less than stellar offensively through a pair of contests. It’s one thing to look good against UT-Dallas — no disrespect to the Comets — but a completely different equation scoring against a top-10 foe on the road.

UConn -36.5 alternate (-130 at DraftKings)
We’re looking at the Huskies here, but we’re doing so with a bit of a conservative approach. UConn has been dominant through a pair of contests, covering as heavy favorites in both. There is just a lot to consider — no matter the sport — when spreads are so big. The standard number is 37.5 at -112 for bettors who prefer a more aggressive play. There’s a lot that we will continue to learn as the season progresses, but the early impression of the 2024-25 Huskies, who rank No. 15 and No. 5 in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively, is that they still look very much like a dominant team built for a deep March run. No disrespect to Le Moyne, but it would not be a surprise to see UConn flirt with a 40-point margin of victory. We just want to give ourselves a little bit of cushion.

Bucks (-6) Finally Look Better and Face a Pistons Squad on a Quick Turnaround

By Chris Farley

Pacers -1.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
The Indiana Pacers off extra rest feels like a very dangerous thing, especially after their last few wins. Indiana's offensive prowess is rising: They went from the 12th to 7th-best offense over the last week. They're also top-6 in fast-break points, paint-points, and assists per game. Off three days of rest, we're getting an inflated spread against an Orlando program that's played very well at home (5-0), which is exactly what we look for — and Orlando is still without their star, Paulo Banchero. Outplaying a banged up Pelicans' squad, the Wizards and the Hornets is one thing; Indiana is a whole new beast.

Pacers vs. Magic under 224 points (-110 at BetOnline and FanDuel)
While we think the Pacers will experience plenty of success Wednesday night, it doesn't necessarily mean the scoreboard will blow up. The Orlando Magic have a way of slowing down games, in part due to their consistently frozen pace (25th overall in their last 4 games). They're 2nd overall in points allowed per game (106.3), and in their last three their opponents never eclipsed 94. They're also mediocre offensively without Paul Banchero. We see this contest going one of two ways — either it's a close game because Orlando manages to slow it down, or Indiana blows them out. In either result, this number is too high.

Celtics 1st half team total over 58.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
Fresh off a shocking upset-loss to the Hawks at home, the Celtics do not have an easy matchup on the road less than 24 hours later. Brooklyn took Boston to OT just five days ago, testing the champs all game and even leading them 51-29 heading into halftime. Last year the Celtics were historic in the first half, an unbelievable 66-34 against the spread. This year, it hasn't been as stellar (5-6 ATS, -2 units). The Celtics still rate highly across the board and have overwhelming talent that can pop off any night. We're inclined to believe they start aggressively and blow Brooklyn out of their own building early, and we're getting a nice number because of some recent disappointments from Boston.

Celtics vs. Nets over 217.5 points (-110 at BetOnline, FanDuel, and DraftKings)
This is solely based on what we said in the previous write-up. The Celtics are bound to escalate their intensity after a tough loss last night to open tournament play. Regardless, the Celtics are too explosive (over 120 ppg, 18.5 three-pointers made per game) to receive a total like this. Unless half of their team sits out (other than Kristaps Porzingis, their injury report is squeaky clean), there's little chance that Boston's offense will let their fans down twice. Even better, since the Nets have a few top-10 marks on defense, we're getting a discount. Sign me up.

Cavaliers team total under 114 points (-105 at BetOnline)
The Cavs haven't done much wrong this season...yet. Entering the week 12-0 after another gutsy win at Chicago, the Cavs keep finding ways to win, usually through their 1st-ranked offense. The only issue is that eventually their production has to regress, simply because they're performing at such a historic (and unsustainable) level so far. Cleveland is shooting a ridiculous 59.8% as a team, including an insane 41.3% three-point percentage. Philadelphia doesn't rate as an elite defense, but Embiid's return is significant, he's their best defender, and we imagine Philly is ready to avenge their shameful loss last night. This is too high.

Bucks -6 (-105 at Bovada)
The Bucks are starting to finally turn a corner. Even in a loss versus Boston, Milwaukee finally looked like a formidable contender against last year's champs, losing late but neck-and-neck with the C's for all four quarters. Last night they earned an important win over a familiar foe, maintaining a 10-point lead for most of the contest and not over-taxing Giannis. Detroit, on the other hand, is coming off an OT win against the Heat last night, setting up for a classic letdown spot following an emotional tournament win. This game will also tip-off 22 hours after Detroit's last affair ended. Advantages are across the board for the Bucks.

In the News 

• Self becomes winningest coach in KU history: “Bill Self brushed off becoming the winningest coach in Kansas basketball history, even as he surpassed the guy whose name is on the arena. ‘It means I’m old,’ the 61-year-old Self said with a slight grin. ‘And it means I’ve had a lot of really good players.’ Self claimed the top spot at one of college basketball’s most storied programs Tuesday night when No. 1 Kansas held off Michigan State 77-69 at the Champions Classic in Atlanta.” [Associated Press]

• College Football Playoff rankings get shaken up after losses: “Miami's first loss of the season, 28-23 at Georgia Tech, and Georgia's second defeat, 28-10 at Ole Miss, shook up the committee's rankings. The Hurricanes fell five spots to No. 9, while the Bulldogs dropped nine spots to No. 12. Using the current rankings, Oregon (Big Ten), Texas (SEC), BYU (Big 12) and Miami (ACC) would be the four highest-rated conference champions and would receive first-round byes in the 12-team playoff. Boise State is No. 13 in the committee's rankings, but the Broncos would be included in the 12-team playoff as the fifth-highest-rated conference champion from the Mountain West.” [ESPN]

• A look at young QBs: “Bryce Young hasn't been completely revitalized since getting the Panthers' starting quarterback gig again, but there've been considerably more positives than negatives. … As for C.J. Stroud, he left a lot to be desired in the home loss to the Lions, his third straight disappointing effort. Bo Nix held his own inside Arrowhead Stadium, and Caleb Williams took far too many hits in the defeat at the hands of the Patriots.” [CBS Sports]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7:30pm: Pelicans vs. Thunder on ESPN and Red Wings vs. Penguins on TNT

• 10pm: Grizzlies vs. Lakers on ESPN and Kings vs. Avalanche on TNT

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