Suns Offense Struggling Without KD + Friday Night College Football Action

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Updated NHL futures

• NBA: Wemby has averaged 36 points in his last 3 games and tonight’s total is 25.5

• Column: Who has been the most surprising skater to start the NHL season?

• College Football: Arizona has lost 5 straight games by an average of 20.8 points

• More NBA: Nets are 9-3 ATS, including covers in 4 of their past 5

• Sportmoney x PFF: A look at wide receivers going into Week 11

• Overtime: Three first-year coaches have their teams in the NFL playoff hunt

The NHL is in full swing (read more about the start of the season in Abby’s column), so we’re starting today looking at some hockey futures with odds from FanDuel:

• Presidents’ Trophy winner: Winnipeg +550, Carolina +600, Dallas +750, Florida +800, New York Rangers +950

• Regular Season worst record: San Jose +135, Columbus +370, Anaheim +600, Montreal +750, Chicago +750

• Rocket Richard Trophy winner (top goal scorer): Auston Matthews +400, Leon Draisaitl +600, Sam Reinhart +700, Nikita Kucherov +750, Kirill Kaprizov +800

• Art Ross Trophy winner (top point scorer): Nathan MacKinnon +170, Kucherov +260, Connor McDavid +340, Kaprizov +380

• Alex Ovechkin to score 42+ goals to break Gretzky’s career record: +150

In today’s newsletter, Chris and Craig team up to cover tonight’s NBA slate, Jack is tracking Friday night college football matchups, and in her column Abby looks at the NHL’s early-season surprises (and players that shouldn’t be called surprises).

- Abe Rakov

P.S. Miss our full Friday NFL coverage? We launched Sportmoney Daily to give you research and analysis 7 days a week. If you want our daily coverage (including before kickoff on NFL Sundays), upgrade to Sportmoney Daily on our website today and we’ll give you your first month free (it’s just $2.99/month after that).

Without KD, Suns Offense is Down to 17th in NBA Over Past 3 Games

By Chris Farley

Lakers vs. Spurs over 227.5 points (-110 consensus)
Over their last four games, the Spurs are one of the best teams in the NBA, ranked 3rd overall in net rating. Victor Wembayama is coming off a massive 50-point performance and they've won three of their last four games. Many might pick their side on Friday, but we see a better opportunity. Both teams are on travel-spot-back-to-backs, on the road immediately after their matchup on Friday, and they're both top-6 on offense over the last week of action. Expending energy on defense might be a challenge considering the situation. Even better, San Antonio is running the floor much faster, and no team has been better at distributing the rock (1st in assist ratio) the last week. In a battle of stars, we see points.

Victor Wembanyama over 25.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)
Victor Wembanyama is averaging 36 ppg and shooting 56% from beyond the arc in his last three contests, but none of those facts are why we think he'll have another big game on Friday. It's more about his opponent. Like his last three foes (Utah, Sacramento and Washington), the Lakers haven't been very good defensively. They're rated 22nd over their last four contests, they allow opposing offenses to shoot 48% from the field (27th), and they're the second-worst defense in the paint, permitting 54.4 points per game. Motivated against GOAT LeBron, this is another great spot for a big Wemby performance.

Thunder -7.5 (-110 consensus)
The OKC Thunder are feeling the loss of Chet Holmgren, but we don't see it mattering much on Friday night. The Suns are not a tall team, nor are they particularly gifted in the front court. They're built to play around their three superstars. Without Kevin Durant, their offense is struggling (down to 17th over their last three games). Bradley Beal will not play on Friday either, which leaves too much on Devin Booker's shoulders, and at home the Thunder have been lights out (3rd in net rating). This has blowout written all over it, and it helps that OKC remains at home with no uncomfortable spots in the days ahead.

Nuggets -4.5 (-105 at Bookmaker)
The Nuggets are starting to hum, and other NBA teams best take notice. Leading the charge is the incomparable Nikola Jokic, who's questionable for Friday night due to "personal reasons." Even if he doesn't suit up, we doubt his teammates will let him down. Jokic has been killing himself to catalyze his team, playing over 38 minutes per game and averaging well over a triple-double. Whether the Nuggets have him or not, the Pelicans are extremely banged up: without CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Zion Williamson, and Herbert Jones. The results have been terrible: they're rated as the worst program in the NBA over their last four games. This is Denver or pass.

Steph Curry under 26.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Steph Curry is coming off a classic performance. Hyper-motivated to silence the fanfare around Klay Thompson's return to the Chase Center (apparently Klay ignored Curry's text before the game, and Curry didn't appreciate it), he dropped 37 on Dallas in a win. That sort of emotional high is bound to deflate heading into Friday, especially against a Memphis squad without Ja Morant. The problem is that Memphis has been quietly proficient on defense, top-3 in opponent shooting percentage and 5th in total defense this season. It won't be as easy for #30 tonight, nor do we think he'll be as aggressive. 

Clippers vs. Rockets under 216 points (-105 at Bovada)
Most NBA fans don't love games without a big scoreboard. It's unlikely they'll get it in this affair. The Clippers and Rockets are two of the premiere defenses in the association, both ranked in the top-7. Combined they allow just 215 points per game, probably a big reason why oddsmakers set it at this number, and they both move at a pedestrian pace (23rd and 24th in tempo). Two nights ago these two programs clashed and both offenses got off to a fast start, scoring 117 combined points in the first half. The battle still ended at 214. 

Labar: NHL Early Season Surprises (and Not-So Surprises)

With the temperature falling below 60 this week in New York, the more frigid temps coupled with a recent trip to Prudential Center to take in a matchup between the Devils and Canadians have got me really in the hockey spirit. A little over a month into the season, I figured we could have some fun with early season surprises and not-so surprises. I broke down the top-5 point getters among skaters (sorry Cale Makar fans) in the NHL (as of Nov. 13th).

I started working in the NHL in 2017, so I’ve followed a chunk of these guys over the years as they’ve gone from rookies to now essentially entering or playing in their prime. I’m going to use a rating scale that you can decide whether you agree or disagree with – that’s part of the fun!

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

UCLA has Won 3 Straight and Faces a Washington Team that Just Benched its QB

By Jack Dougherty

Wyoming +9.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
This is a completely different Wyoming team than the one we saw at the beginning of the season. The Cowboys went 1-6 against the spread in their first seven games, but they’re 2-0 ATS since switching to quarterback Kaden Anderson. Veteran running back Harrison Waylee also made his debut last week and rushed for 170 yards and a touchdown in Wyoming’s 49-45 win against New Mexico. Colorado State has beaten up on bad teams recently, but this line is too high against a much-improved Cowboys offense. 

Wyoming vs. Colorado State over 46.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
This is a similar play to the Wyoming spread in that oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough to the Cowboys’ offensive changes. Anderson can actually push the ball down the field and create explosive pass plays, as we saw last week when he threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns against New Mexico. That threat wasn’t the same with Evan Svoboda under center. Waylee is a terrific running back, and it’s no coincidence the Cowboys put up a season-high in his first game of the year. On the other side, Colorado State’s run-heavy offense should have success against a Wyoming defense that ranks 131st out of 134 teams in yards allowed per rush (6.0). 

Houston moneyline (+102 at DraftKings)
These two teams are going in opposite directions right now. Arizona has lost five straight games by an average of 20.8 points, and it’s coming off a 44-point dismantling against UCF in which the Wildcats gave up 308 rushing yards and managed just five rushing yards themselves. Meanwhile, Houston has won three of its last four games since switching to quarterback Zeon Chriss. Chriss went 11-11 passing and ran for 75 yards and a score in Houston’s upset win against Kansas State two weeks ago. The Cougars are going to pound the rock against a Wildcats defense that’s been shredded on the ground in recent weeks. 

Chandler Morris 400+ passing yards (+265 at FanDuel)
If you love high-flying, air-it-out offense, this is the game for you. North Texas might not attempt a single run play in this game based on the matchup. The Mean Green attempt the second-most passes per game (43.8) in the country, while UTSA ranks 132nd in passing yards allowed per game (313.3). The Roadrunners have given up 787 passing yards and nine passing touchdowns in their last two games. Morris has cleared 400 yards four times this season, and this is the worst passing defense he’ll face all year. 

DT Sheffield 125+ receiving yards (+260 at FanDuel)
Correlated play alert: If Morris has a big day with his arm, that means Sheffield will put up a huge stat line himself. The junior is a big play waiting to happen, as he averages 13.1 yards per catch this season. UTSA has given up back-to-back 125-yard receiving games to opposing wideouts, and neither of those players has the explosive speed and home-run ability Sheffield possesses. 

UCLA +3.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
UCLA has a losing record because it went through a gauntlet of a schedule to start the season that included Indiana, LSU, Oregon and Penn State. Most teams would struggle with that brutal four-game stretch. Since then, though, the Bruins are 3-1 with road wins against Rutgers and Nebraska. They won’t be intimidated by the purple sea up in Seattle. Washington is coming off a blowout loss to Penn State in which it benched Will Rogers for freshman Demond Williams Jr. If you have two quarterbacks you don’t trust, you have no quarterbacks. 

Georgia to win the national championship (+800 at DraftKings)
Now is the time to look at Georgia in the futures markets. The Bulldogs are coming off an embarrassing loss to Ole Miss, but they’re still 7-2 with the toughest strength of schedule in the country. Georgia is facing Tennessee this week, and Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava might not be able to suit up due to an injury. Take care of business at home, and the Dawgs finish the season with easy games against Umass and Georgia Tech. A two-loss Georgia team with wins against Texas, Clemson and Tennessee won’t be kept out of the College Football Playoff. Once they’re in, they could make a run at the title with no dominant force in college football this year.  

The Hawks, Facing the Wizards Tonight, are 1-3 Against the Spread After a Win this Season

By Craig Williams

Nets +10.5 alternate (-135 at DraftKings)
The Knicks are the superior team on paper, but they’re still searching for that “winning gene,” evidenced by their 7-4 expected record and actual 5-6 tally. They’re coming off of a loss to the Bulls, so it’s not as if they’re immune to dropping games to mid- and bottom-tier NBA teams. The Knicks are 4-1 against the spread following a loss, so we like the odds of them playing well. We’re looking at an alternate line here. Nets +10.5 was the original number, but it has been bet down to +9.5. The Nets are 9-3 ATS this season, including covers in four of their last five. Finally, the Nets and Knicks rank 28th and 30th in pace, theoretically creating an environment in which it will be more difficult for the Knicks to run away and hide.

Karl-Anthony Towns over 39.5 points + rebounds + assists (-127 at Caesars)
Towns is on fire at the moment, averaging over 39.5 from points and rebounds alone (32.6 points, 11.8 rebounds) over his last five. He’s averaging three assists over that span for good measure, including games with five and six helpers. We presume Nic Claxton will spend a significant portion of the contest as the primary defender against Towns, which is a mismatch in terms of size — a claim backed by recent contests. Towns has gone over this number in each of his last three matchups against Claxton and the Nets, and four of his last five overall. One more factor we’re considering is the Knicks’ superior offensive and defensive rebounding rates, which figure to help Towns clean the glass.

76ers moneyline (+110 at FanDuel)
The season is on the verge of spiraling out of control for the 76ers, who will presumably have both Joel Embiid and Paul George on the floor Friday evening. Their next nine games are more important than a typical stretch in mid-November. They only have one set of back-to-backs over that span, and the schedule is dominated by teams who are beatable on paper — “on paper” is always the key term. The Magic are riding a four-game winning streak, but beat the Pelicans, Wizards, and Hornets (plus the Pacers) over that span, so we’re not talking about the cream of the NBA’s crop. Finally, don’t be surprised if we see glimpses of vintage Embiid. Getting out of Philadelphia and playing the role of villain in another team’s building might be the breath of fresh air he needs ot spark his season and the Sixers.

Wizards +9 (-110 at FanDuel)
We’ll stop short of looking at the Wizards to win outright despite the fact that their two wins came against the Hawks. It’s difficult to continually beat up on the same team, but one can imagine the Wizards will enter with a degree of confidence. They’re coming off of a loss at the Spurs, but they covered in the process. The Hawks, meanwhile, will need to guard against a letdown after downing the Celtics in Boston. They’re 1-3 against the spread after a win, and we’ve seen their performance dip the game after a big victory (their loss to the Pistons after beating the Knicks as a recent example). The Wizards and Hawks both rank top five in pace and bottom five in defensive efficiency. This is the type of “game structure,” in theory, that allows an underdog like the Wizards to keep the score close.

Bulls +11.5 alternate (-130 at DraftKings)
This is absorbing some juice in exchange for a little more cushion on the spread. It’s reasonable to anticipate an up-tempo contest as the Bulls and Cavs rank Nos. 1 and 9 in pace. The Bulls have won two of their last three and covered each of those contests, including against the Cavs as 8-point dogs, and played well offensively over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Cavs have dropped three straight against the spread. Finally, while it’s difficult — perhaps impossible — to quantify how teams will respond to the NBA Cup, it’s worthwhile to consider that some teams may take it more seriously than others.

Parlay: Jarrett Allen over 0.5 blocks + 10 rebounds (+104 at DraftKings)
For starters, we’re looking at this play under the presumption that Allen will play 30-plus minutes. Each of his four games below 10 rebounds occurred in contests in which his playing time was held below that mark. He’s not a prolific shot-blocker, but he only has three games this season in which he finished with a goose egg in that department. And more generally, we like to pay attention to “over 0.5” lines in a lot of cases, and this is a situation in which Allen can “stumble” into an easy block. And considering Bulls center Nikola Vucevic takes the most two-pointers on the team, it’s reasonable to anticipate that Allen will be presented with opportunities to defend and redirect a number of Vucevic’s shot attempts.

Pistons vs. Raptors under 224.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
We’re thinking outside the box a little bit for this one. There are a number of on-the-court and off-the-court elements that suggest Friday’s contest will be a rock fight. At least consider that the young players on Detroit’s roster are in an upper echelon international city after spending a lot of time in much more modest destinations. More practically, we’re eyeing the Pistons’ solid defense that ranks 12th in the league in defensive rating — with tighter defensive clamps on the road. They will sink their teeth into a team without much offensive mojo going thanks to a rash of injuries. We’re banking on a sluggish, somewhat ugly offensive performance by both teams, particularly the home side. We’ll simply tip our cap to the Raptors if they muster the offensive performance to push this one over.

Sportmoney x PFF Week 11 Rundown: Wide Receivers

• The Ravens look to utilize Zay Flowers a lot off of play action: 

  • 30 targets (1st) 

  • 26 catches (9 more than any other player) 

  • 372 receiving yards (1st) 

  • 6 catches gaining a first down (1st) 

  • 10 catches gaining a first down (T-2nd) 

• There is no bigger “go-to” guy in goal-to-go situations than Amon-Ra St. Brown is for Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions: 

  • 8 targets (1st among WR’s) 

  • 8 catches (most in the NFL) 

  • 6 TDs (most in the NFL) 

  • 3 contested catches (T-2nd among WR’s) 

• When Aaron Rodgers sees a press coverage look with Garrett Wilson in the game, it’s likely he’s going his way:

  • 68 targets (11 more than any other WR) 

  • 49 catches (7 more than any other WR) 

  • 558 yards (2nd) 

  • 31 catches gaining a first down (1st) 

  • 12 missed tackles forced on RECs (1st) 

  • 13 catches gaining 15+ yards (T-1st, Ja’Marr Chase) 

Read the full Sportmoney x PFF rundown, which also includes running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, on our website: sportmoney.com.

In the News 

• Poch gets first competitive USMNT win: “United States men's national team manager Mauricio Pochettino congratulated his side on its 1-0 win over Jamaica in the first leg of the Concacaf Nations League quarterfinals, though he noted the U.S. needs to improve ‘in all areas.’ The result marked Pochettino's second win since taking charge in September, and his first with the U.S. in a competitive match. … The two teams will meet again on Monday in St. Louis to determine which one will advance to the CNL semifinals in March.” [ESPN]

• The quick turnaround NFL teams of the season: “Teams considering a coaching change should be encouraged by some of the quick turnarounds around the NFL. Three teams with new coaches entered Week 11 holding a playoff position. Dan Quinn’s Washington Commanders (7-4) led that group in victories despite a 26-18 loss to Philadelphia on Thursday night. Raheem Morris and the Atlanta Falcons (6-4) are first in the NFC South. Jim Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) currently have the second wild-card spot in the AFC.” [Associated Press]

• Boston College QB bolts after benching: “Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos will leave the program and is expected to transfer with one year of eligibility remaining, he announced on social media Thursday. Castellanos' decision comes after coach Bill O'Brien announced Monday that Grayson James will start at quarterback for the Eagles this week against No. 14 SMU.” [CBS Sports]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 5pm: UVA vs. Villanova for some early men’s college basketball action on TNT

• 6pm: No. 2 UConn vs. No. 14 UNC on ESPN2 to get a glimpse of how potential WNBA No. 1 pick Paige Bueckers is looking

• 7:30pm: LeBron vs. Wemby on ESPN as the Lakers travel to San Antonio in NBA Cup action

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