Cowboys Could Struggle to Get over 16.5 Points + Analysis of 14 NBA Bets

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Another not-perfect NFL season

• NFL: Cowboys are allowing league-worst 8.4 yards per pass

• NBA: Bulls and Pistons have gone over in 3 of their past 4 head-to-heads

• More NBA: Magic are giving just 94.7 points per game at home

• Overtime: A look at how underdogs fared in the NFL and college football this weekend

The ’72 Dolphins once again popped their champagne to celebrate still being the only perfect team in NFL history after the Chiefs’ loss to the Bills yesterday. The Bills were home favorites, so it wasn’t an upset. But after finding ways to win week after week this season, Kansas City finally couldn’t get it done. The Lions and their league-leading +159 point differential dropped 52 on the Jaguars and are the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl. Here is where the current odds sit on FanDuel:

• Lions +420

• Chiefs +500

• Ravens +650

• Bills +700

• Eagles +900

• 49ers +1400

In today’s newsletter, Chris has the Texans vs. Cowboys Monday Night Football matchup and Craig and Jack cover tonight’s NBA slate.

— Abe Rakov

Mixon Line Set at 85.5 Rush Yards Against Cowboys’ 31st-Ranked Rushing Defense

By Chris Farley

Texans -7 (-114 at BetOnline)
The Houston Texans are coming off a tough loss last week in a game where they had a 23-7 lead at halftime. Regardless of the defeat, it's evidence of how great Houston can be when the team is all in. With a defense that ranks top-5 in DVOA and a star QB like C.J. Stroud, the Texans can make it far this year. We can't say the same for Dallas, which is forced to play Cooper Rush at QB without Dak Prescott and has an offense that can't run the ball. With superstar wide receiver Nico Collins set to return and Houston's desire to redeem themselves after last week's debacle, this could be a blowout.

Cowboys team total under 16.5 points (-112 at FanDuel and DraftKings)
There's a chance that Houston puts up a bunch of points on Monday night, but we feel great about their opponent failing to do so. The Cowboys were already struggling even with their star QB behind center (23rd in ppg, 21st in ypg, 31st in TD-red zone rate). Now, with Cooper Rush starting at QB, Dallas can only hope to establish a balanced attack and hang with an angry C.J. Stroud and the visiting Texans, and to that we say: good luck! Dallas has one of their worst ground attacks in the NFL (31st in ypg) and Houston is one of the best defenses against the pass (1st in opponent pass completion rate, 3rd in yards per pass allowed).

C.J. Stroud over 1.5 pass TDs (+100 at Bovada)
Somehow, someway, Stroud has thrown for 2 pass TDs or more in just three contests this season. That's bound to change on Monday night. The Houston offense has been limping a bit without star wide receiver Nico Collins and with a failing offensive line in pass protection (Stroud has been sacked 34 times, the most of any QB besides Caleb Williams). The good news is the Dallas defense has permitted 35 ppg and an astounding 9 passing TDs to opposing throwers the last four weeks. On turf and in a familiar Texas setting, MNF is a perfect backdrop for a big performance from Stroud.

Joe Mixon over 85.5 rush yards (-115 at Bovada)
Since the Houston offensive line (and at times their defense) has let them down, the Texans haven't been as committed to Joe Mixon and their run-game. Playing from behind can make that a difficult task, but Monday's game presents a very different opportunity. Mixon had four straight 100-yards performances until he faced the Lions, where he only managed a measly 46 yards. There's a real chance that the Texans are leading by margin throughout this entire contest, thus an assertive 7-point road chalk, which means plenty of time for Houston to grind the clock and give Mixon carries against the 31st-ranked rushing defense.

Cooper Rush over 175.5 pass yards (-113 at FanDuel)
A look at a Cooper Rush prop? We know, but hear us out. The Cowboys run the ball less than any other program (34.2%), relying heavily on their air-attack. Of course, that was their posture because they had Dak Prescott. But even without Prescott, we're not sure much will change. Since oddsmakers and many bettors expect that the Cowboys will be trailing early, it'll be up to Rush to keep his team afloat. Rush threw 13/23 for just 45 yards in his first start, which is not exactly an inspiring metric. But Mike McCarthy's job is on the line, and contrary to popular opinion he's an above-average play-caller. 

Nico Collins anytime TD (+135 at FanDuel)
The return of Nico Collins is a big deal for the Texans. The hyper-athletic wideout scored a TD in three of the five games he's played in this season, but this contest profiles as a better candidate than most. The Cowboys are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and even more so against explosive operations. Dallas allows 1 point on nearly half of their opponent's plays (0.463% to be exact), a 30th rank. Even worse, they permit 8.4 yards per pass, good for dead last in the NFL. Collins is a long-ball expert, already snagging passes of 34, 55, and 67 yard catches in just five starts. He should have plenty of opportunities to score.

Rockets are 9-6-1 ATS on No Rest Since 2023, Bucks are 8-13 ATS with Rest Advantage

By Craig Williams

Wizards vs. Knicks under 232 points (-112 at DraftKings)
Neither the Knicks nor the Wizards have played well against the spread in the second leg of back-to-backs (10-20 since 2023); and they have both trended to the under in those circumstances. The Knicks rank third in offensive efficiency but they play at the league’s slowest pace, so their offensive aptitude doesn’t necessarily show in raw point totals. Meanwhile, the Wizards have lost eight in a row, and only have two wins on the season, both against the Hawks. As poor as they are offensively, their performance dips just a bit more on the road. This is a spot where the Knicks can sink their defense into an offensively challenged unit, and do their part with a slow offensive pace to keep this total under.

Carlton Carrington under 18.5 points + assists + rebounds (-120 at FanDuel)
“Bub” Carrington is quietly having a productive rookie season, averaging 30.2 minutes per game while sprinkling production across the stat sheet. We’re fading him in this spot for a few reasons though. For starters, the Wizards are poor offensively on the road, including in the second leg of back-to-backs. We don’t expect Carrington, who is averaging 9.0 points, 5.2 assists and 3.4 rebounds, to be the one to spark a turnaround. Additionally, the nature of tonight’s contest will force Carrington to achieve a high level of efficiency in order to reach the over. The Knicks are a slow, defensive-minded team; and Carrington will have to settle for whatever usage is left after Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma get their pieces of the usage pie.

Bulls vs. Pistons over 233.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Pistons and Bulls have both trended to the over in the second leg of back-to-back sets since 2023. And they have gone over in three of their last four head-to-head matchups. It’s what they’ve done in recent contests this season that has us eyeing the over. The Bulls have gone over in three straight, combining to top totals of 233.5, 239, and 232. The Pistons haven’t gone over such large totals of late, but they’re entering tonight’s contest winning three of their last four while scoring 120-plus three times over that span. The Bulls play at the league’s fastest pace and have the league’s fifth-worst defensive rating, a combination that will theoretically allow the Pistons to score with relative ease on their home floor.

Josh Giddey over 10.5 assists + rebounds (-130 at DraftKings)
Giddey is stuffing the stat sheet even though he’s struggling with consistency in the scoring department. He’s hit the over in three of his last five, and we like him to do so tonight considering the expected game flow. The Bulls play at the league’s fastest pace, a rate that doesn’t change on the road, so we’re likely to see a lot of possessions and assist chances for Giddey. They also allow the most shot attempts per game. The Pistons rank 15th in team field-goal percentage (46.2%), so we anticipate that they’ll provide enough errant shots to help Giddey reach the over.

Heat moneyline (-142 at DraftKings)
We’re going off the stat sheet in this spot. Something is just way off with the 76ers right now. We know injuries are a significant piece of the equation in their struggles, but that doesn’t account for just how poorly they’ve played this season. After all, it’s not as if they’ve been missing their Big 3 for all of their games. They’re an abysmal 2-10 and riding a three-game losing streak. To be fair, the Heat aren’t setting the world on fire either, but at least they don’t appear to have a fundamental flaw eroding the team from its core. We can’t trust the 76ers, without or without Embiid, and we’re happy to look at the Heat’s reasonable moneyline price. 

Raptors under 114.5 points (-105 at FanDuel)
The Raptors have been abysmal this season, though we’ll acknowledge that most teams will struggle when their best player is absent for an extended period of time — not to mention they’re without other key players. And it’s not as if the Pacers are operating at the same breakneck pace of last season, so we’re not necessarily anticipating a track meet. The Pacers have the rest disadvantage, having played last night before traveling to Toronto. The Raptors, however, are 8-14 to the under since 2023 when they enter play with the rest advantage. We’re leaning into that trend and tracking a low-scoring performance from the home team. They’ve scored fewer than 115 points in five straight non-overtime games. 

Rockets +4 (-112 at FanDuel)
The Rockets have the NBA’s fifth-best net rating compared to the Bucks at No. 19. The Bucks are hosting, where they’re 3-3 as opposed to 1-6 on the road, but we’re still bullish on the Rockets in this one. They’re 8-2 over their last 10 and riding a five-game winning streak — with four straight wins ATS. They’re also 4-2 on the road for good measure. Another consideration is that the Rockets are finishing a back-to-back set against a rested Bucks team. However, the Rockets are 9-6-1 ATS on no rest since 2023 while the Bucks are 8-13 ATS with the rest advantage. We’re going to continue riding the hot team in this spot, especially against a Bucks squad that appears stuck in second gear. 

Dyson Daniels has Played at Least 35 minutes and Attempted at Least 14 Shots in 6 Straight

By Jack Dougherty

Devin Booker under 27.5 points (-104 at DraftKings)
Booker’s points prop has been hiked up recently because Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal are out of the lineup, but he’s still gone under this line in six of his last eight games. The star shooting guard is coming off an exhausting performance against the Timberwolves last night in which he played 40 minutes, took 29 shots and scored 44 points as the only player on the Suns who could create his own shot. Booker is averaging just 14.0 field-goal attempts and 19.5 points per game on the second night of back-to-backs this season, and the Magic have multiple excellent defenders to throw at him. 

Suns team total under 103.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
If Booker doesn’t have a big scoring game on Monday night, it’s going to be tough for the Suns to reach triple digits in the matchup. The Magic have been the best defensive team in the NBA, especially at home. Orlando ranks No. 1 in opponent points per game (102.4) and opponent field-goal attempts per game (82.3), and it’s giving up just 94.7 points per game at home this season. The Magic have held five straight opponents to fewer than 95 points, and they can stifle a tired Suns team playing for the second consecutive night. 

Franz Wagner 3+ threes (+175 at FanDuel)
Wagner spent the offseason working to improve his outside jumper, and it’s paying off with his career-high 5.8 three-point attempts and 2.0 makes per game this year. The fourth-year forward has even turned it up a notch since Paolo Banchero went down with an injury, as he’s attempting 7.5 threes per game over the last six contests. Wagner is coming off a season-high 11 three-point attempts and five makes against the Sixers, and the Suns rank 24th in the NBA in opponent three-point shooting percentage (36.9%).

Dyson Daniels over 12.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
This number is too low for a young player who’s starting to find his confidence in the NBA. Daniels has quickly become a key piece of this Atlanta offense, as he’s played at least 35 minutes and attempted at least 14 shots in six straight games. The third-year guard is averaging 16.7 field-goal attempts and 17.5 points per game in that span. He should keep it rolling against a Kings team that’s given up 117.0 points per game over their last five.

Ivica Zubac over 11.5 rebounds (-115 at DraftKings)
The Warriors don’t have a physical presence down low, which is why they’re giving up the most rebounds per game to opposing centers (17.8) this year. Centers have cleaned up on the glass against Golden State, including Zubac, who reeled in a season-high 18 boards in his lone matchup against the Warriors earlier this season. Zubac has cleared this line in nine of his 14 games this year, and this is just about the easiest matchup he could ask for. 

Jalen Johnson over 13.5 rebounds + assists (+106 at FanDuel)
Johnson has been stuffing the stat sheet for the Hawks all year. The forward is averaging 9.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game this season, and he ranks third in the NBA in passes per game (74.0). He’s gone over this line in nine of 14 games this year. This projects to be a high-scoring, up-tempo game with a total of 236, so Johnson should have more opportunities to rack up rebounds and assists with a high number of possessions. The Kings will also likely be without Domantas Sabonis, one of the best rebounders in the NBA. 

Stephon Castle to win Rookie of the Year (+1800 at FanDuel)
This feels like a good time to look at the Rookie of the Year market. Jared McCain has vaulted to the top of the odds board after scoring 113 points and draining 18 threes in his last four games, but that usage isn’t going to last. McCain is playing big minutes right now because Tyrese Maxey is out with a hamstring injury, and Joel Embiid and Paul George have been in and out of the lineup. Well, Maxey is set to return to the court soon, which will push McCain down to the fourth or fifth scoring option on the 76ers. Meanwhile, Castle has settled into the starting lineup for the Spurs, and he’s averaging 15.2 points and 4.7 assists per game over his last six. 

In the News 

• Giants bench Jones: “The New York Giants have benched the struggling Daniel Jones and named Tommy DeVito as their new starting quarterback. Coach Brian Daboll announced Jones' benching Monday, starting the process of the last-place Giants moving on from the quarterback they signed to a four-year, $160 million deal less than two years ago. DeVito will start in Jones' place beginning Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at MetLife Stadium.” [ESPN]

• Underdogs make a comeback in the football betting markets: “The underdogs were back in both college football and the NFL over the weekend. Several teams that were very popular among bettors lost on Saturday, and the NFL was roughly the same on Sunday. Here’s a look at the action using data from the BetMGM Sportsbook: On Saturday, four teams that received more than 70% of the bets failed to cover the spread, which was highlighted by Oregon (-13.5 at Wisconsin). The Ducks received 82% of the bets.” [Associated Press]

• Even with Mitchell out, Cavs move to 15-0: “The Cleveland Cavaliers joined a fantastic foursome of NBA clubs that began their season 15–0 with a 128–114 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday. With the win, Cleveland joined the 1948-49 Washington Capitols (15-0), 1993-94 Houston Rockets (15-0) and 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (24-0). All three of those teams eventually finished the season in the NBA Finals, but only the Rockets won the championship. The Cavs played without leading scorer Donovan Mitchell, who was kept out of the game for rest, according to the NBA injury report.” [Yahoo Sports]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 8pm: Rockets vs. Bucks on NBA TV and the U.S. Men’s soccer team vs. Jamaica in Concacaf Nations League action on TNT

• 8:15pm: Texans vs. Cowboys for Monday Night Football on both ABC and ESPN

• 10:30pm: Warriors vs. Clippers on NBA TV

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