Last 5 Bulls Games Have Averaged 246.6 Points + More NBA and NCAAM Action

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: New College Football Playoff rankings

• NBA: Curry averages 41.6 points a game against Trae Young

• NCAAM: Stanford is 4-0 straight up and against the spread this year

• NBA: Bulls are 4-1 ATS against the Bucks in last 5 matchups

• Overtime: Lakers other rookie has a huge night

Boise State moved into the final bye slot in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. The 9-1 Broncos, whose only loss on the season is to No. 1 Oregon, are ranked 12th and leading the Mountain West. Because of a logjam of Big Ten and SEC schools ahead of them, and Notre Dame’s ineligibility to earn a bye, if the season ended today Boise State would jump eight schools and get the first week off in the playoffs.

They have 2-8 Wyoming and 4-6 Oregon State left on the schedule, and as long as they beat Wyoming, a matchup against either 8-2 UNLV or 7-3 Colorado State in the conference championship game. If this holds, there will certainly be questions about Boise State’s resume, as its best win is against UNLV (ranked 50th by Sagarin). But they were up by a touchdown in the fourth quarter against Oregon before losing on a walk-off field goal and have a superstar in running back Ashton Jeanty — he leads the NCAA with 1,893 rushing yards, 471 more than the next-best back, and is second to Colorado’s Travis Hunter on most Heisman lists right now.

As for the rest of the rankings: Ohio State is 2nd, followed by Texas, Penn State and Indiana. The Hoosiers travel to Columbus on Saturday to take on the Buckeyes for the Big Noon Saturday matchup on FOX. Notre Dame is No. 6 and Alabama, Miami (who would receive a bye as a conference champion), Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee and Boise round out the top 12. Check out ESPN’s playoff predicator to see how one game can upend the entire bracket.

In today’s newsletter, Jack and Chris cover the NBA, and Craig is tracking tonight’s men’s college basketball action.

— Abe Rakov

Jalen Williams Averages 2.2 Steals a Game, has Gone Over Tonight’s Line (1.5) in 10 of Last 13

By Jack Dougherty

Tyrese Haliburton under 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110 at DraftKings)
It’s always scary to fade Haliburton, but this is a tough matchup for him to stuff the stat sheet. The Rockets are an elite defensive team, as they give up the fewest assists per game (21.7), the fewest fastbreak points per game (10.3) and rank No. 1 in opponent shooting efficiency (1.060). Haliburton is struggling with his shot this season, shooting a career-low 38.3% from the field and 28.8% from three. The point guard has gone under this line in nine of 14 games so far, and this is one of the toughest matchups he’ll face all year.

Jalen Williams over 1.5 steals (+102 at FanDuel)
Williams has been one of the most disruptive defenders in the NBA this season, as he’s averaging 2.2 steals per game and has cleared this line in 10 of his last 13 games. He couldn’t ask for a better matchup against the Trail Blazers, which rank 29th in the league in opponent steals per game (10.2). Portland has coughed up 40 turnovers in the last two games with Anfernee Simons out of the lineup, and the point guard is questionable to play on Wednesday night. 

Karl-Anthony Towns over 2.5 assists (-142 at FanDuel)
Towns is expanding his playmaking role in this Knicks offense as the season goes on. The big man is averaging just 3.0 assists per game on 4.6 potentials and 38.1 total passes this season, but those numbers jump to 4.5 assists per game on 7.3 potentials and 42.5 total passes if you look at his last four starts. He should continue to dish it against a Suns team that gives up 4.37 assists per game to opposing centers. 

Stephen Curry 30+ points (+155 at DraftKings)
Curry will be licking his chops in this matchup against Trae Young and the Hawks. The future Hall of Famer has faced off against Young five times in his career. He’s averaging a ridiculous 41.6 points per game on 52.6% shooting and 41.6% from three in those matchups, scoring at least 30 points in all five. Curry is starting to be more aggressive on offense, attempting at least 12 threes in three of his last four games, and he’ll look to score early and often when matched up against Young. 

Draymond Green over 13.5 assists + rebounds (+100 at DraftKings)
As good of a matchup as this is for Curry to score, it’s just as good for Green to rack up assists and rebounds. This is expected to be an up-tempo, high-scoring game considering the total is set at a whopping 239. The Warriors and Hawks both rank inside the top five in the NBA in pace, so Green will have plenty of opportunities to crash the glass and dish out assists. The veteran forward has gone over this line in three of his last four games while averaging 14.8 assists + rebounds in that span.

Magic vs. Clippers under 206.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Magic have found their identity without Paolo Banchero on the court. Since Franz Wagner is the only consistent scorer in the current lineup, Orlando wants to limit possessions and win with defense. That strategy has paid off with six straight wins, and the average total in that stretch has been 199.5 points. The Clippers also play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA when James Harden is on the court, so it will be a challenge for both teams to reach triple digits against these strong defenses. 

Franz Wagner 3+ threes (+130 at FanDuel)
This is an automatic look at plus money due to the volume alone. Wagner has taken over as the alpha with Banchero out of the lineup, and he’s only gaining more confidence as the season goes on. The small forward has attempted at least 23 shots and eight three-pointers in four straight games, hitting this line in three straight. The Clippers aren’t the easiest matchup when it comes to outside shooting, but they do allow the eighth-most threes per game to opposing small forwards (3.07). 

Look for Mark Sears to Shake Off Slow Start to Season in Top-25 Matchup Tonight

By Craig Williams

Virginia Tech over 74.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
We’re looking at the Hokies to put up a solid offensive showing against Jacksonville tonight. Tech is off to a 3-0 start at home, and even though they haven’t knocked off any household programs, we’re acknowledging the ongoing trend of them playing significantly better at Cassell Coliseum. It is a challenging place to play for visitors, and Jacksonville hasn’t found their road legs in the early going. They’re allowing teams to score more per game and score more efficiently when they’re guests, a trend that is carrying over from last season. 

Stanford -18.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Cardinal are off to a 4-0 start, straight up and against the spread. They’ve yet to leave the comfort of their home floor, and that’s where they’ll host Norfolk State tonight. Each of their covers came as double-digit favorites, laying as many as 18 points. Norfolk State is 16-18 ATS overall and 7-9 on the road dating back to last season. We’re also considering the cross-country trek the Spartans are making from Norfolk to Palo Alto. One previous trip to the Golden State may not be enough of a sample for most bettors, but it’s worth noting that Norfolk State fell to San Jose State by 22 when they made the trip last season.

Citadel +11.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Citadel vs. Charleston might not register as a high profile rivalry, but when two crosstown programs meet on the floor, there is often a little bit extra on the line. Now, considering Charleston’s 10-0 mark in the series over their last 10 meetings, some may argue how much of a “rivalry” this actually is. Citadel, however, is 6-4 ATS over that span, demonstrating a degree of pluckiness even when outmanned. The Bulldogs are 3-1 at home this season after going 7-7 at McAlister Field House. A .500 record at home isn’t impressive on the surface, but it carries more weight under the context of their 11-21 overall record. 

Alabama -8 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Illini are in for a stiff test — on paper at least — as they head to Tuscaloosa for their first road game of the season. They enter the matchup with a young team, led by freshman forward Will Riley, who paces the team in scoring (17.7 PPG). Four of the top five Illini scorers are underclassmen, including a second freshman in their backcourt. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but winning on the road is a feat young teams and players must grow into through experience. Illinois has yet to be tested through three games, so sharing the floor with a veteran-laden Crimson Tide squad at Coleman Coliseum figures to serve as an early season wakeup call.

Rutgers over 76.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
The Scarlet Knights have only gone over this number in one of three games this season, but they left a lot of points on the floor in their first two contests, shooting a combined 10 of 39 from beyond the arc and 30 of 46 from the charity stripe. They shot 11 of 20 and 25 of 32, respectively, in their 98-point performance in their last time out. They remain at home, where they’ll host the defensive-minded Merrimack Warriors. Merrimack has held its first three opponents to an average of 60.6 points, but they haven’t faced a team with the talent of Rutgers. Tonight will be a test that challenges the sturdiness of their defense.

Mark Sears 20+ points (-145 at DraftKings)
Alabama’s senior lead guard is off to a sluggish start to the season and has reached this mark in only one of four contests so far. However, there’s no shame in enduring a tough shooting night at Purdue; and the Crimson Tide didn’t really need him to be in peak form in their three other contests. We know what Sears brings in the scoring department though, particularly in high-profile matchups against premium competition. Sears reached 20 points in 10 of his last 11 games last season. Tonight’s contest is a prime opportunity for him to take a leading role in setting the tone at home in a top-25 matchup.

USC -19.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)
We can forgive the Trojans for dropping their most recent game to Cal, even as 7-point home favorites. Both teams may reside in new conferences, but the matchup essentially served as a Pac-12 tilt; and we know that conference rivalries produce surprising results with a degree of regularity. We’re banking on Southern Cal bouncing back and getting back into the win column, both straight up and against the number. They were 9-8 ATS after a loss last season, a decent symbol of resilience, even if it falls short of impressive. We’re bullish on the Trojans though because San Jose State appears overmatched on paper. They enter the contest with a 1-4 record — 1-3 ATS — against modest competition. We anticipate them struggling a bit in their visit to Los Angeles.

Giannis Has Gone Over Tonight’s Rebounds Line (12.5) in 6 of Last 8 Games

By Chris Farley

Pelicans vs. Cavs over 221.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Cleveland's defense has been one of the best in the NBA since the season started, but this profiles as a great spot for a little negative regression. After a hard-fought battle with Boston last night, bones and muscles and joints are probably hurting more than usual for the Cavs, who are also on a road back-to-back. The Pels are also on a road back-to-back and their defense has been abysmal, a bottom-3 unit through 15 games. With both programs exhausted and the return of CJ McCollum to help aid the visitors on offense, look for more points than usual.

Pelicans +13.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
This wager isn't about metrics or models or some dorky quant-perspective that a machine could make, it's about intangibles (ya know, the things that actually govern human behavior). The Pels are 4-12 and hope for a great season is already waning. The Cavaliers lost last night in a battle that felt like two heavyweight contenders bashing each other in the face for four quarters. It's also a very sleepy letdown spot for a Cavs' squad that's been playing near-perfect basketball for a month, meaning a chink in the armor is near. As a great bettor once said, "sometimes you just gotta hate your money." Well, here we go!

Brandon Ingram over 24.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)
Even though CJ McCollum is set to return, it's Brandon Ingram who's held the team on his shoulders. The gangly forward is averaging 23.6 points per game, 18th among all active players and one of the more productive marks of his 9-season career. He’s also scored 20 or more points in 10 out of 16 starts this season. Since we project that the Cavaliers defense will be more lethargic than usual, and since New Orleans is as desperate as it gets, we expect their roster to keep depending on the dude who's been doing it consistently for the last month.

Bulls +8 (-105 at Bovada)
The Bulls have been a head-case for a long time, but there's space for cautious optimism this season. First, their offense is showing signs of consistency. Their playing style has sped up, which has led to a 12th-best 16.3 fastbreak ppg, and they're one of the better long-ball shooters in the NBA. They shoot threes at a 37.7% clip (8th), and they're 3rd in three-pointers made per game (16). On the other side, Milwaukee still looks tremendously unorganized and disparate at times, and their best player (Giannis) is working through a knee cap injury. Best of all, the Bulls are 4-1 ATS against the Bucks in their last 5 matchups.

Giannis over 12.5 rebounds (+100 at DraftKings)
As a proper hedge on the above wager, a position on one of the NBA's most impactful players is something we love. Oftentimes, hedging a superstar on the side you think will lose works out very well, but we digress. Giannis Antetokounmpo is used to taking games into his giant hands, especially when his team is suffering. The Bucks allowed 133 points to the Bulls in their first matchup this season. Giannis gained 11 rebounds in that affair, but he'll need to be even more active in the rematch. In November, he's averaging 13 rpg, and he's only had 2/8 games under 13 rebounds this month.

Bulls vs. Bucks over 237.5 points (-110 at Bovada)
Last time these two teams battled they scored 255 points and that was before their offenses caught a better stride. Overall, Milwaukee and Chicago are 21st and 20th, respectively, in offensive efficiency, but oddsmakers believe that they’ll have plenty more to offer when they face each other again. For starters, the Bulls run at a top-2 tempo in the NBA over their last 5 games, a key metric that’s led to a wild 246.6 ppg in the same span. And the good news is, we don’t think they’ll slow down. Chicago has multiple guys who can catch a rhythm and lead their team to another big scoreboard, and lately neither program is playing defense. Points! 

In the News 

• ESPN takes a look at how soccer teams across the world got their colors: “Los Blancos. The Reds. I Nerazzurri. How did soccer's most storied clubs become synonymous with something as simple as a color? … ESPN is telling the stories of how 50 of soccer's most popular clubs around the world got their colors, documenting the rich histories of their ever-evolving aesthetics and showcasing both the jerseys worn in the sport's most iconic moments and the threads that have transcended the game.” [ESPN]

• Knecht ties NBA rookie 3-point record: “Dalton Knecht could only shrug when he buried his fourth consecutive 3-pointer and sent the Los Angeles Lakers ' entire arena into a frenzy. That was a very specific shrug by the Lakers rookie, however — the one made famous by Michael Jordan in the 1992 NBA Finals after a legendary 3-point flurry. … A shrug is also the increasingly accurate response to the question many NBA fans are asking after Knecht’s 37-point barrage Tuesday night: Just how did Knecht fall to the Lakers with the 17th pick in last summer’s draft?” [Associated Press]

• NFL coaches on the hot seat: “There are plenty of coaches that are on the hot seat for the remainder of the 2024 season. Some may not make it to the end of the year, as teams will want to get a head start on the process to find their next head coach for 2025 and beyond. Some coaches may not even make it to Thanksgiving at this rate. Whose seat is the hottest heading into Week 12? There are certainly a few candidates that are on the hot seat at this point in the season.” [CBS Sports]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 5pm: No. 1 South Carolina takes on Clemson in women’s college basketball action on ESPN2

• 7:30pm: Bulls vs. Bucks followed by Knicks vs. Suns (10pm) for an NBA doubleheader on ESPN

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