Eight NBA Cup Matchups on Tap Tonight + Friday College Football Insights

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: F1 is back in Vegas

• NBA: Zubac is averaging career highs in rebounds (12.4) and assists (2.4)

• Column: How MLB Network research works

• College Football: Purdue has failed to cover by an average of 12.9 points in past 9 games

• More NBA: Wizards have lost nine straight outright and 8 of 9 ATS

• Overtime: Will you stay up until 1am (ET) to watch Jason Kelce?

Formula 1 back in Las Vegas and Red Bull’s Max Verstappen can claim his fourth consecutive title on Sunday even though there are two more races after this weekend. If Verstappen finishes ahead of McLaren’s Lando Norris, he will have an unsurmountable lead in the standings and win the drivers’ championship. Norris can keep his chances alive if he finishes at least two spots ahead of Verstappen in the race. Here is where FanDuel has the Las Vegas Grand Prix ahead of qualifying:

• Charles Leclerc +250

• Lando Norris +270

• Max Verstappen +420

• Carlos Sainz +650

• Lewis Hamilton +750

• George Russell +900

The good news for McLaren is that they are still in the drivers’ seat for the constructors’ championship (the team with the most points). McLaren is 36 points ahead of 2nd-place Ferrari and 49 ahead of Red Bull, which sits in third place thanks to Sergio Perez’s lackluster season.

In today’s newsletter, Jack covers tonight’s college football matchups (and looks at an interesting Big Ten champion future), and Chris and Craig track the NBA slate.

— Abe Rakov

Rockets are a Top-10 Offense and Top-2 Defense Over Past 5 Games

By Chris Farley

Rockets -12 (-110 at FanDuel)
Few (if any) programs are playing as well as the Houston Rockets right now. Rated top-10 on offense and top-2 on defense over their last five games, the Rockets have been teeter-tottering in and out of the #1 net-rated spot for the last week and a half. Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green lead a team that's getting more depth by the day, with young bucks like Amen Thompson and Tari Eason playing extremely well off the bench. The Trailblazers are going in the opposite direction, net-rated 22nd in their last five matchups and they're very banged up. On the road, they could be without DeAndre Ayton, Anfernee Simons, and/or Scoot Henderson on Friday night. The steam is rightfully on the home team.

Blazers team total under 105.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
Have we mentioned that the Blazers' offense isn't very good right now (28th in their last five) and that Houston's defense looks like one of the scariest in the NBA? Houston is only permitting a ridiculous 103 ppg in their last seven contests, and the supporting stats show just how consistent they are. Houston is 1st in opponent fastbreak points and assists/game, and they're top-5 in opponent paint points per game, turnovers, two-point shooting rate, and effective field goal percentage. Portland relies heavily on their front court and fastbreak attacks, but injury concerns and a stingy opponent suggest they'll fall well-below their average tonight.

Pelicans +10.5 (-105 at Bovada)
We love what the Warriors are doing as much as anyone. Golden State's depth is one of the best in the association and their starting-5 (stand up, Buddy Hield) has been extremely fluid (1st in assist ratio, 2nd in defensive efficiency). That said, this is a much better spot for the Pels. Keep an eye on updated injury reports, but as of Friday morning the home team is slated to see the returns of CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy III. That uptick in health alone will serve as a major boost of energy for a team that desperately needs signs of life at 4-12. At home and with Golden State on a road back-to-back into Saturday, we must consider this one!

Warriors vs. Pelicans under 223 points (-105 at BetOnline)
Even without their core for the majority of the first month, the Pelicans defense has done okay. Young players like rookies Yves Missi and Trey Jemison III have played well, scrappy in the paint and showing effort on every possession, while other more experienced replacement guards (like Brandon Boston Jr. and Jaylen Nowell) have been feisty on the perimeter. It hasn't amounted to many wins, but it did give valuable playing time to a group that barely sees the floor. With stalwart defenders like CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III returning against a conference foe that's top-4 in defense this season, this has the vibe of a very physical, low-scoring clash.

Ivica Zubac over 11.5 rebounds (-102 at FanDuel)
Ivica Zubac for MVP? Okay maybe not, but the big-man is playing some of the best basketball of his career. Earning career highs in both rebounds (12.4, 3rd overall) and assists (2.4) per game, Zubac has become more instrumental for the Clippers as they continue to contend with injuries. Over his last four games, he's accrued 51 boards, including a 17-rebound explosion in a win versus Golden State four nights ago. Domantas Sabonis, one of the NBA's best rebounders, is set to return after missing the last week with back issues, but that doesn't deter us. This is an A+ matchup against a Kings' program that's 28th in offensive boards. 

Clippers +3 (-105 at BetOnline)
It's hard to find consistency early in an NBA season, but the Clippers are starting to show that they can win even without Kawhi Leonard. They're also in a fabulous spot on Friday. In L.A. since last weekend, the Clippers have enjoyed their homestay, winning three straight games, including tough victories against Golden State and Orlando. Although their offense isn't great, they're doing the little things right. No team is better at grabbing defensive boards, they're the 6th-best defense, and they're top-10 in assist ratio. The Kings have not been consistent at all this season, but we're getting a nice underdog spread here since DeMar DeRozan's return is imminent.

Labar: The Secret Weapon to a Successful Studio Show

Every now and then on social media, somebody will quote a statistic that they hear me reel off on a show. Usually along the lines of “Per @abbylabar on Quick Pitch (insert stat here).” Now don’t get me wrong, I’ve spent an unbelievable amount of time throughout the years studying for broadcasts. I’ve always taken pride in my research and preparation, but this year I had a resource that I’ve never had before in my career so it feels a little funny when I see these types of comments on social media because I know the credit is due elsewhere. 

Alas, the MLB Network Research Department. They are truly the oil that feeds the engine that makes an entire show run. From working with the talent to the producers to the graphics department, they feed us so much information in such a timely and unique manner. Before we dive into a Q&A with one of the researchers I work the closest with on Quick Pitch, let me give you a little perspective on how they support my role. 

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

San Jose State WR Leads Nation in Catches (95), Receiving Yards (1,282) and Receiving TDs (14)

By Jack Dougherty

UTSA team total over 37.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
This will be a huge mismatch when UTSA’s offense is on the field. The Roadrunners are on fire offensively with at least 38 points in four straight games, averaging 43.8 points per game in that span. UTSA plays at the 12th-fastest pace in the country, and it should be able to torch a Temple defense that ranks 117th in the country in points allowed per game (35.0) and 122nd in rushing yards allowed per game (215.7). The Owls recently played two of the better offenses in the AAC and gave up 56 to East Carolina and 52 to Tulane.

Robert Henry 60+ rushing yards (-106 at FanDuel)
UTSA has been a pass-heavy offense this season, but it found something with the running game last week. Robert Henry notched a season-high 20 carries and 168 rushing yards against North Texas’ porous defense, and the Roadrunners can go back to that against Temple’s weak unit. The Owls have given up a whopping 227.0 rushing yards per game over their last three games. UTSA will also be operating in a positive game script in what should be a comfortable win, so Henry should be busy on the ground. 

Michigan State -14 (-108 at DraftKings)
This Purdue team is begging for the season to end. Ever since their season-opening win against Indiana State, the Boilermakers have gone 0-9 straight up and 1-8 against the spread, failing to cover by an average of 12.9 points per game. Now they have to take a trip to chilly East Lansing and try to contain dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles, who’s improved every week and cleaned up his turnover issues from early in the season.

San Jose State +7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
San Jose State’s 42-21 loss to Boise State last week is a misleading final score. The Spartans outgained the Broncos, 483-456, in the game and held a 21-14 lead in the third quarter before a series of unfortunate events led to a final score that doesn’t reflect how easily SJSU could’ve pulled off the upset. All UNLV wants to do is run the ball, and San Jose State has been much better at defending the run than the pass this season. Don’t be surprised if the Spartans pull off the outright win.

Nick Nash 120+ receiving yards (+120 at DraftKings)
If you don’t know the name Nick Nash yet, it’s time to get familiar. Nash leads the country in catches (95), receiving yards (1,282) and receiving touchdowns (14) this season. The Spartans know he’s their best chance to put up points, so they drop back to pass on 65.3% of their offensive plays, the highest rate in the country. San Jose State will continue to air it out against a UNLV defense that ranks 115th in the country in passing yards allowed per game (264.3). The Rebels have no answers for Nash down the field. 

Ohio State to win the Big Ten Championship (+115 at BetMGM)
If you like Ohio State to beat Indiana this Saturday (currently 11-point favorites at home), you’ll be interested in this bet. The Buckeyes will essentially clinch a Big Ten title berth with a win against the Hoosiers, which will set up a rematch against Oregon in the championship. Well, we know oddsmakers have Ohio State rated higher than Oregon since the Buckeyes were 3.5-point favorites on the road in the head-to-head matchup earlier this season. If they play again in Indianapolis, Ohio State’s moneyline price will be closer to -150. Look at the only plus-money price on this future while you still can.

Cam Ward to win the Heisman Trophy (+1500 at BetMGM)
Ward was the betting favorite to win the Heisman just a few weeks ago, but he’s slipped to 15/1 as Colorado continues to stack up wins to help Travis Hunter’s case. Now is the time to look at the dip. Ward has a chance to put up monster numbers against Wake Forest and Syracuse to close the season, and he’ll be playing in his conference championship game. Hunter might not, as Colorado could easily lose as a short road favorite against a resurgent Kansas team this weekend. We know how much team success matters to Heisman voters, so Hunter isn’t the lock many think he is if the Buffaloes finish the year with three losses and fail to make the conference title game in a weak Big 12.

Underdog Pacers (+5.5) are 7-3 Against the Bucks Over their Last 10 Matchups

By Craig Williams

Nets +5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Nets are far from a convincing No. 8 seed — as modest as that plateau may be; but they’re a far cry from where the bottom-feeding 76ers are at the moment. Paul George (knee) will likely miss the contest, placing extra burden on Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, who just made his return from a six-game absence (hamstring). They’re not finding any comfort at home, where they’re 1-5 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Nets have been competitive away from Barclays Center, going 6-1-1 ATS, including against the Knicks, Cavaliers, and Celtics in recent tilts.

Celtics -16 (-112 at FanDuel)
This is a big number, and the Celtics are on the road. However, they’re playing the Wizards, who are 1-5 straight up and against the spread as hosts. They’ve dropped nine straight outright and eight of nine ATS. It’s worth acknowledging that tonight’s contest is an NBA Cup tilt. The Celtics are 1-1 and sit in second place in their group, one which also includes the one-loss Cavs — that lone loss coming at the hands of the Celtics. The significance of the Cup matchup is point differential serves as an important tiebreaker. If the Celtics are motivated by the NBA Cup, one could surmise they won’t be afraid to put up a big number on the woeful Wizards.

Hawks vs. Bulls over 245.5 points (-115 at ESPNBET)
This has the makings of a track meet on paper. The Hawks and Bulls are both top-3 in pace, while neither team appears particularly interested in playing defense. For what it’s worth, the Hawks are perched atop Group C in the NBA Cup while the Bulls dwell in the basement, albeit with only one game played. All of that is to suggest the theoretical presence of incentive from both teams to operate on all cylinders. For these teams, that’s on the offensive side, and for the Bulls in particular, their work from three-point land. The Hawks allow the most three-point attempts and the highest percentage from range. Meanwhile, the Bulls are top-10 both in attempts and accuracy.

Bulls +1.5 (-110 at ESPNBET)
We’re sticking with the Hawks and Bulls in Chi Town with a lean toward the Bulls as home dogs. The element of the matchup to pay attention to is the Bulls’ work from three-point land, and the Hawks’ apparent aversion to defending the three-point line. In a game that figures to be uptempo and high-scoring, the Bulls should enjoy success if they’re able to force the Hawks to play keep-up from beyond the arc. The Bulls have won four of their last five head-to-head meetings. And the Hawks are completing the final game of a four-game road trip before they return home with two days off before taking the floor again.

Pacers +5.5 (-110 at ESPNBET)
We’re dipping our toe into the qualitative analysis, at least to start, and the angle we’re diving into is the Pacers’ confidence against the Bucks. It’s reasonable to suggest there’s a little bit of an extra edge to a team that believes it’s the better unit on the floor despite getting points on the betting line. And the reason the Pacers may feel that way is because they’re 7-3 against the Bucks over their last 10, including eliminating them in the first-round of last year’s NBA Playoffs. This isn’t the same Indiana team that raced up and down the floor last season, so we’re going to stop short of picking them outright, but the Bucks are even further away from the title contender we thought they were as recently as last season. 

In the News 

• Jason Kelce goes late night: “Jason Kelce will try his hand at late-night television early next year. Kelce announced during an appearance on ABC's ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ on Thursday night that he will host ‘They Call It Late Night with Jason Kelce’ on ESPN. The one-hour show will tape on five straight Friday nights beginning Jan. 3. That coincides with the last week of the NFL's regular season and the playoffs. The show will be filmed in front of a live audience from Union Transfer in Philadelphia. The first four episodes will air at 1 a.m. ET starting Jan. 4 with the final episode at 1:30 on Feb. 1.” [ESPN]

• Surging Chargers get another high-profile game slot: “The Los Angeles Chargers have played their way into another prime time appearance. Justin Herbert and company have had their Week 16 home game against the Denver Broncos flexed from Sunday, Dec. 22, to Thursday night, Dec. 19. Friday’s announcement makes this the first time a game has been flexed to the Thursday night spot. The league amended its policy last season where Thursday night games in Weeks 13 through 17 could be flexed with at least 28 days notice prior to the game, and teams could make more than one appearance on Amazon Prime Video’s 16-game package.” [Associated Press]

• Biggest surprises to start the men’s college basketball season: “The 2024-25 college basketball season is barely two weeks old at this point, and yet already there have been some major surprises. Programs like Alabama, Duke, and Houston have already taken early losses. Simultaneously some of the most anticipated transfers — like Kansas' AJ Storr, St. John's Kadary Richmond, Alabama's Cliff Omoruyi, and Arkansas's Johnell Davis — have yet to live up to expectations so far. Conversely, though, there have been unexpected players who have emerged into early star status. Whether they'll be able to sustain that level of production remains to be seen, but so far, these players have been the most pleasant surprises in college basketball.” [CBS Sports]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 9:30pm: No. 13 Baylor vs. No. 11 Tennessee in men’s college basketball action on CBSSN

• 10:30pm: No. 12 Duke vs. No. 17 Arizona on ESPN2 (today is a good NCAAM day for being so early in the season)

• 1am: Las Vegas Grand Prix qualifying on ESPN

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