Harbaugh Bowl Set Up to Go Over 50.5 Points with Jackson, Henry and Herbert Rolling

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A wild NFL Sunday

• NFL: Chargers defense allows 4.7 yards per rush

• NBA: Pelicans are 1-7 straight up and 0-8 ATS on the road

• More NBA: Warriors hold opponents to NBA-low 30.9% from 3

• NFL Week 12 Insights: Courtland Sutton has first game with 2 receiving TDs

• Overtime: Eagles coach finds loophole in penalty rules

We warned you that sometimes what looks like a straightforward Sunday in the NFL can take a turn for the chaotic. The Cowboys beat the Commanders in one of the wildest finishes possible — Dallas was up 10-9 with 8:12 left in the game and won 34-26. The Bears scored 10 points in 1:56 to send the game to overtime, only to lose on a Vikings’ field goal. The Texans missed a potential game-tying 28-yard field goal with 1:56 left, got the ball back after just 24 seconds, but couldn’t find a way against the Titans. And the Chiefs won with stress again on a field goal as time expired against the Panthers.

And don’t forget, the Browns beat the Steelers in a snowstorm on Thursday. What a week. But it’s not done yet: The best game on paper is tonight’s Ravens vs. Chargers matchup.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering Monday Night Football, Craig and Jack analyze 14 NBA bets, and we have NFL Week 12 insights for you.

— Abe Rakov

Ravens' Secondary Allows 7.7 Yards per Pass (28th), 284.5 Passing Yards per Game (32nd)

By Chris Farley

Ravens -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh will be a classic for years to come, but we see one team with an obvious edge tonight. The Chargers have been extremely impressive in their first year under Jim Harbaugh. All facets of their team have improved, even with conceivably “less talent.” This game is just coming at a bad time. Baltimore is one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl for a reason, a complete roster that has been in big-game situations many times before. By no means do we think this will be a cake-walk, but the visitors can control this game on the ground, and even Jim Harbaugh can't completely prepare for Lamar Jackson.

Ravens vs. Chargers over 50.5 points (-110 consensus)
The L.A. Chargers have been in one low-scoring game after another, until they faced a really good QB and a flawed defense (last week). Cincinnati and LAC combined for 61 points and 887 yards last Sunday, a display of explosive offense, and we expect similar results tonight. The Chargers can clearly keep up with high-scoring programs, and Herbert's 297-yard performance last week showed that he can carry the team when he has to. On the other end, the Ravens were stymied by the Steelers last week, a team they always have issues with, so they'll be motivated for redemption. They also have a significant edge on the ground. Points should be coming!

Justin Herbert 275+ yards (+135 at DraftKings)
First and foremost, the Ravens are arguably the best rush-defense in football, and they have the stats to back it up. They only allow 3.4 yards per carry, a 1st-place mark, and just 77.5 rush yards per game (2nd). We bring this up because, in all likelihood, the Ravens should be able to limit the Chargers' run-game, which in turn means the Bolts offense will be on Justin Herbert's able shoulders. The Chargers are a run-first team, but it makes sense that they would try and expose a Ravens' secondary that's allowing 7.7 yards per pass (28th) and 284.5 pass yards per game (32nd). 

Derrick Henry 2+ TDs (+270 at FanDuel)
The biggest reason why the Ravens are favored on Monday night might not be because of Lamar Jackson, their future Hall of Fame coach, or the fact that they're a complete team and one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Derrick Henry is their biggest edge in this game. The Chargers' defense is very good overall, but they can be beaten on the ground. This season they're allowing 4.7 yards per rush (24th) and while they're very good at preventing rushing TDs (1st in opponent rush TDs/game, 2nd in opponent red-zone TDs), King Henry is a different beast behind a very effective offensive line. 

Mark Andrews 50+ receiving yards (+220 at FanDuel and DraftKings)
We expect this to be a high-scoring game, which means more skill players will be involved than usual. And we all know Mark Andrews tends to show up in big moments. Andrews hasn't had a big year, partially because he's competing with the studly Isaiah Likely, who's an athletic freak at the tight end position. Still, Andrews has found a way to eclipse 50 yards in four contests this season. The good news for him Monday is LAC's linebackers (the guys that often cover TEs) are banged up. Khalil Mack was a limited participant in practice, and Denzel Perryman won't suit up. Go get yours, Mark!

Ravens 1st Drive: TD (+185 at DraftKings)
Last week the Ravens trudged through the intimidating grass of Pittsburgh and in truth, found it hard to move. Baltimore gained only 339 yards in Week 11, and they turned over the ball on their second offensive play. Unbelievably, although they've scored a touchdown on 36% of their opening possessions this season, they haven't done zilch in their last six first drives. The bright lights of Monday Night Football in a beautiful indoor field is a great venue to put Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and their offense on the move early, especially coming off a disappointing loss. Expect Baltimore to start strong. 

Young Averaging 12 Assists Over Past 5, Mavs Allow 6 More Assists per Game on Road

By Craig Williams

Hornets +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Magic are stout at home but only 3-7 against the spread on the road. Meanwhile, the Hornets are 5-3 at Spectrum Center, both ATS and straight up. The Magic certainly hold the recent advantage, both in the win column and against the number. However, of the Hornets’ three covers against the Magic over their last 10, two came at home. We’re banking on the Magic’s road struggles and the Hornets’ statistical preference for home cooking to set the table for a competitive contest that allows the Buzz to remain close. The Hornets have covered three straight and seven of nine overall.

Brandon Miller over 24.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
This is primarily about MIller’s recent good form in the scoring column — he’s averaging 33 points on 56.1% shooting, including 55.9% from three-point range in his past three games. It’s also about Orlando’s defense loosening on the road significantly — both in terms of points per game and efficiency. Finally, both Miles Bridges and Tre Mann, who average the third and fourth most shot attempts, respectively, are day-to-day for Charlotte. Even if they return, we like the momentum that Miller has generated over his last three contests, and we anticipate him to continue carrying a heavy scoring load alongside Lonzo Ball. 

Pistons -5 (-110 at FanDuel)
We’re leaning into the Pistons’ recent run over the Raptors, a stretch that includes three straight wins and covers. The Raptors are winless on the road, and this game is tipping off in Detroit. We like Detroit to cover despite the Raptors’ own three-game streak against the spread. Toronto has struggled offensively, especially in the wake of Scottie Barnes’ injury. And their struggles have been amplified on the road. The Pistons have played respectable defense under head coach J.B. Bicketstaff, something that figures to make life challenging on the visiting Raptors, who are playing the second leg of a back-to-back.

Pacers -5.5 (-110 at Caesars)
The Pacers haven’t been setting the world on fire by any stretch, but they look like the 2016 Warriors compared to the Pelicans, who are 1-9 over their last 10, and 1-7 straight up and 0-8 ATS on the road. The Pelicans are decimated by injury and will be without a number of starters and key rotation players against a Pacers team that is 4-2-1 ATS at home. The Pacers are coming off of a push as 12-point favorites against the Wizards, a team even worse than the Pelicans in the win-loss column. The Pelicans enter tonight with a rest advantage as the Pacers played last night, but that hasn’t helped them against the spread through a pair of contests thus far, and we’re looking at a third loss against the number in this spot.

Mavericks +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
We’re rolling with the Mavs in Atlanta even though they remain without superstar guard Luka Doncic (wrist), who will be reevaluated in the coming days. They had won four straight, including two on the road, before falling to the Heat in Miami in overtime on Sunday. They’re 2-1 ATS so far this season in the second leg of a back-to-back, and 3-2-1 as a road underdog. The Hawks are 1-4 as home favorites, but it’s their lack of defense — 20th in efficiency, 28th in points allowed — that has us leaning toward the road team. The Mavericks still have Kyrie Irving to lead the charge in the absence of Doncic, and he’s averaging 21.8 points and 6.2 assists on 47.6 shooting over his last five.

Trae Young over 11.5 assists (-113 at FanDuel)
It’s a fun narrative when the Hawks and Mavs share the court, even without Luka Doncic suiting up for the Mavericks. We’re looking at Young having a busy day in the assists department. He’s averaging 12 dimes over his last five games and 11.7 on the season overall. Not only is Dallas coming off of an overtime loss on Sunday evening, but they’re allowing 30 assists per game on the road compared to 23.9 at home. The Hawks have hit the over in each of the two instances in which they’ve entered a contest with two-plus days rest, and given the circumstances of tonight’s matchup, we like Young to fill up the assist column.

Jayson Tatum over 3.5 three-pointers made (-130 at DraftKings)
With the exception of a dud against the Wizards, a game in which the Celtics won with ease despite failing to cover, Tatum has been lighting it up from beyond the arc over his last five. He’s averaging 4.2 three-point conversions over that span — 5.3 threes if you take out the 0 for 10 anomaly in Washington. It’s fair to acknowledge the Clippers’ success defending the three this season — opponents shoot 33.4% from beyond the arc against the Clippers. We’re riding with Tatum at home though, where he averages 10.6 long-range attempts and converts at a 43.5% clip. It may require a little more volume from Tatum, but the Clippers don’t put the clamps on three-point attempts on the road to the same degree as they do at home.

Sabonis Averaging 16.5 Rebounds a Game in Past 2, 14.8 in Past 10 Against OKC

By Jack Dougherty

Anfernee Simons over 2.5 turnovers (-135 at DraftKings)
Higher usage and more possessions lead to turnovers, and that’s what we’re expecting out of Simons in this matchup. Simons will be busy on the offensive end if Scoot Henderson (questionable with a back injury) doesn’t suit up, and this will be a high-possession game considering the Grizzlies run at the third-fastest pace in the NBA. Simons has recorded at least three turnovers in seven of his 13 full games this season, while Memphis ranks sixth in the league in forced turnovers per game (15.9).

Cam Thomas under 2.5 threes (-113 at FanDuel)
Thomas will be busy on the offensive end tonight based on Brooklyn’s lengthy injury report, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be efficient. The Warriors are the best in the business at guarding the three-point line, as they’re holding opponents to an NBA-best 30.9% from beyond the arc. Golden State also ranks No. 1 in the NBA in threes allowed per game to opposing shooting guards (2.59). Thomas is the only shooting threat who can hurt the Warriors in this matchup, so Steve Kerr will draw up a defensive game plan to shut down his clean looks from deep.

Knicks second quarter winner (+114 at FanDuel)
The Nuggets struggle in the second quarter when Nikola Jokic hits the bench. Denver is 5-10 against the spread in the second quarter this season because the bench unit is outmatched in nearly every game. That should especially be the case tonight, as Tom Thibodeau uses a 6.5-man rotation in most games. The Nuggets bench players will be going up against the Knicks starters for much of the second quarter, so New York shouldn’t be priced as an underdog in the second frame.

Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double (+105 at FanDuel)
We’re beating a dead horse with this prop, but it’s almost an auto-bet if oddsmakers are going to keep posting it at plus money. Jokic is averaging a comfortable triple-double this season (30.3/13.9/11.2), and he’s notched a triple-double in five of his last six games. Incredibly, Jokic leads the NBA in rebound chances per game (24.4) and ranks second in potential assists per game (19.5). He does everything for Denver with Aaron Gordon out of the lineup, and that won’t stop in this matchup. 

Karl-Anthony Towns over 2.5 threes (+120 at FanDuel)
Towns is questionable to play in this matchup, but if he suits up, the big man should have a big shooting night going up against Jokic. The Knicks center has been an elite outside shooter this season, draining 45.8% of his three-point attempts. He’s also increasing his volume of late, as he’s attempted at least eight threes in three of his last five games. Towns won’t be able to bang with Jokic down low, so he’ll be more than happy to step out and fire from the top of the key. 

Domantas Sabonis to record 14+ rebounds (+120 at FanDuel)
Sabonis has been a rebounding machine since returning to the lineup last week. In two games since coming back from his back injury, Sabonis is averaging 16.5 rebounds per game on an NBA-best 28.0 rebound chances per game. He grabbed 15 boards against the Clippers, which are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, and this is a much easier matchup against the Thunder. OKC ranks dead last in the NBA in rebound rate (45.8%) and opponent offensive rebound rate (29.1%). Sabonis is averaging 14.8 rebounds per game in his last 10 matchups against the Thunder.

Jalen Williams over 23.5 points (-103 at FanDuel)
Williams didn’t get off to the best start this season, but he’s been on fire shooting the ball over the last two weeks. The third-year guard has gone over this line in five of his last six games, and he’s averaging 18.7 field-goal attempts and 26.2 points per game in that span. Williams consistently scores in the mid-to-high 20s if he’s hitting threes, and the Kings rank 29th in the NBA in opponent made threes per game (15.1) and 27th in opponent three-point shooting percentage (37.7%).

Addison’s 162 Receiving Yards in Week 12 More Than 3.5x His Season Average

Week 12 was the craziest of the NFL season. Here are insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• Jordan Addison caught 8 of his 9 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown in Week 12 against the Bears, including two deep receptions (20+ air yards) for 114 yards. Addison gained 63 of his 162 yards after the catch, generating +45 YAC over expected, the most in a game for his career.

• Josh Jacobs rushed 26 times for 106 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Packers Week 12 victory over the 49ers, recording the most missed tackles forced (15) of a ball carrier in a game this season.

• Leonard Williams had a 28.1% pressure rate against the Cardinals in Week 12, his highest pressure rate since at least 2018, totaling 9 pressures and 2.5 sacks on 32 pass rushes.

• Tony Pollard rushed for 119 yards and 1 touchdown on 24 carries in Week 12 against the Texans, recording a career high 5 explosive runs (10+ yards).

• DeMarvion Overshown generated a career-high 5 pressures and 1 sack on 13 pass rushes (38.5%) on Sunday afternoon, his 5th-straight game and 7th overall game this season with multiple pressures, both the most among all off-ball linebackers this season.

• Courtland Sutton caught 8 of his 10 targets for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Raiders, his first career game with 2 receiving touchdowns.

  

In the News 

• Barkley for MVP?: “Saquon Barkley ran off the SoFi Stadium field Sunday night with two game balls under one arm and the other hand raised toward the sky as Philadelphia Eagles fans showered him with chants of ‘MVP!’ If he keeps playing like this, he might just be the first running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012 to capture the award. Barkley had a career night in the Eagles' 37-20 win over the Los Angeles Rams, posting 302 scrimmage yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns, both of which went for 70-plus yards.” [ESPN]

• South Carolina, USC losses show depth of women’s college basketball this season: “Defending champion South Carolina has been No. 1 for 23 straight weeks after going undefeated last season and winning its first few games of the new season before losing 77-62 at No. 5 UCLA. Sixth-ranked Notre Dame took it to No. 3 USC winning 74-61 a day earlier. UCLA coach Cori Close said she watched the entire Notre Dame-USC game and came away really impressed with the Irish. ‘Notre Dame looked really good and we have a lot of teams that can make a good case to be No. 1 and that’s a great testament to our game,’ she said. ‘There’s a lot more parity.’” [Associated Press]

• Sirianni changes mind on penalty after seeing Rams’ plan: “In the second half of Sunday night’s game against the Rams, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni played a separate game with his decision on whether to accept or decline a penalty. And referee Land Clark let him. The Rams, operating from the Philly 14, faced third and three with 2:26 left in the third quarter. A pass from quarterback Matthew Stafford to receiver Puka Nacua was incomplete. The Rams also were called for holding. Initially, Sirianni declined it. When he saw that the Rams would be going for it on fourth and three and not kicking a field goal, Sirianni changed his mind and accepted it. Clark allowed it.” [NBC Sports]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 8:15pm: Ravens vs. Chargers on Monday Night Football on ESPN/ABC

• 9pm: No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 5 Iowa State in men’s college basketball action from Maui on ESPNU

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