In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The WNBA Finals are set

2. Bets to Watch: Insights on 10 bets across today’s 4 MLB Wild Card matchups

3. NFL Fantasy: Texans’ rookie RB gets NFL’s worst defense vs. RBs next

4. Public Money: The six teams NFL bettors are most behind this week

5. Overtime: WNBA star says the league has “the worst leadership in the world”

1. Leading Off

The WNBA is getting a lot of attention off the court, which risks overshadowing what has been a very entertaining first two rounds of playoff action. The Finals, which start on Friday (8pm on ESPN), is a matchup between the now perennially contending Las Vegas Aces and the out-of-nowhere retooled Phoenix Mercury.

The Aces beat the Indiana Fever in overtime last night in a decisive Game 5, a surprisingly close series considering the Fever were without Caitlin Clark and a slew of other players. The Mercury beat the heavily-favored Minnesota Lynx 3-1 in a highly contentious series that turned into a referendum on officiating and the league office as much as the on-court action.

Las Vegas, which won back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023, are Finals favorites (-126) — Phoenix starts as a +108 underdog. Sportsbooks see an Aces 4-3 win (+430) as the most likely outcome, with a 4-1 blowout at +470. The Aces are currently 3.5-point favorites (-104) in Friday’s Game 1 in Vegas.

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Facing Elimination at Home, Ramirez Has Good Matchup vs. Tigers Mize (5-10, 2 HR)

By Todd Cordell

Guardians Jose Ramirez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-120 at Bet365)
Ramirez had a tough series opener. He only recorded one hit (a single) and a baserunning blunder getting aggressive in the bottom of the 9th led to an out and cost his team a realistic shot at tying things up and forcing extra innings. Ramirez will want to make up for that mistake and get the Guardians back in the series, and he has a great matchup to do just that. Ramirez has feasted on Casey Mize in the past, hitting 5-10 with a pair of homers. Mize obviously won’t last the same kind of length as Tarik Skubal but that shouldn’t be a problem; the Tigers rank 23rd in bullpen FIP since September 1. 

Guardians Tanner Bibee under 1.5 earned runs (-135 at DraftKings)
Bibee enters this start in good form. He allowed just two runs over his final three games, which is notable as two of them came against these same Tigers. Bibee neutered their offense effectively all season long, giving up run totals of zero, one, and one while pitching 19 innings in aggregate. The Tigers have posted miserable numbers vs. right-handed pitching over the last month and Bibee clearly seems to have their number. Factor in a potential short leash if Bibee runs into any sort of trouble, or a difficult matchup the Guardians want to avoid for a third time, and there are plenty of outs for this prop.

Yankees Aaron Judge under 1.5 total bases (-145 at Bet365)
Brayan Bello is Judge’s Achilles Heel. There is no other way to put it. Judge has seen a ton of his division rival and enjoyed next to no success against him. Judge has just two hits through 21 at bats, good for a .098 average and .045 ISO. He has also struck out more times than he’s walked. Bello’s track record combined with the possibility the Red Sox aim to pitch around him after a multi-hit effort in Game 1 makes the under especially appealing.

Yankees Aaron Judge over 0.5 walks (-125 at Bet365)
Judge walked in 56% of his games this season and 12 of his past 20. Independent of matchup or situation, this is price relatively fairly based on his hit rate. This isn’t a normal game, though. It’s an elimination game. The Red Sox want to send the Yankees home and the best way to do so is limiting Judge. After a multi-hit performance, it’s even more likely they take a cautious approach and try to dance around him. If that means walking, so be it. Judge also has three times as many walks as hits against Bello.

Red Sox Romy Gonzalez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+126 at DraftKings)
Gonzalez has enjoyed a ton of success vs. lefties this season, hitting .331 with a .269 ISO. While that has yet to translate to results against Carlos Rodon, he is well equipped to change that. Rodon is fastball first when facing righties, throwing it nearly 20% more often than any other pitch. Gonzalez owns a .333 average vs. the fastball with a lower whiff rate than any other pitch. He should be able to make some noise in this spot.

Yankees Carlos Rodon under 15.5 pitching outs (-142 at DraftKings)
The Yankees are in do or die mode. There is no margin for error, which means Aaron Boone will be proactive in getting relievers involved if Rodon runs into any sort of trouble. The Yankees have played one game over the past two days and no reliever threw more than 15 pitches. The bullpen should be fresh, giving Boone plenty of options to work with. Rodon lasted just five innings in two of three starts against the Red Sox this season and, certainly, none of them carried anywhere close to the ramifications of this game. Don’t expect him to last.

Red Sox Brayan Bello under 2.5 earned runs (-140 at Bet365)
This line makes little sense. Pitchers tend to have shorter leashes in the playoffs, especially when a team is facing elimination or has the ability to close a series — as is the case in this game. The Red Sox were off Monday and used just one bullpen arm on Tuesday. They are fresh as can be and have a bevy of arms available. There is zero reason to leave Bello out there if he’s struggling and the Yankees are really threatening to put up a crooked number. Not to mention, Bello has allowed one run or less in three of his past four against New York while averaging more than six innings per start — a number he’ll only flirt with if he’s mowing them down.

Dodgers Freddie Freeman over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-135 at DraftKings)
Freeman feasted on righties during the regular season, posting a .299 average and ISO above .200. He picked up multiple hits in Los Angeles’ impressive Game 1 victory and should pick up where he left off tonight. Zack Littell leans heavily on the splitter, using it more often than any other pitch vs. left-handed hitters. That’s a recipe for disaster against Freeman, who hit better than .450 against the splitter in the regular season. 

Dodgers Shohei Ohtani over 0.5 walks (+100 at Bet365)
Let’s comb through a couple of facts here. Shohei Ohtani earned a walk more often than not during the regular season. He also destroyed the Reds in the series opener, hitting a pair of homers and accounting for three of the team’s first eight runs. Slowing him down is priority No. 1 and, after piling up eight total bases, that might mean taking a more cautious approach. At plus money, it makes sense to roll the dice and bank on the Reds running into a situation where they’d rather give him a free base than live with more severe consequences.  

Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. over 0.5 singles (-111 at DraftKings)
Tatis had an underwhelming series opener, going 0-4 with a strikeout in a relatively lifeless performance from the Padres. The good news is Tatis won’t be facing a lefty again (he’s much more productive vs. righties), nor a pitcher of Matthew Boyd’s caliber. Tatis recorded a single in 53% of all appearances this year and was most effective on the road, where he hit 10 over his final eight games of the regular season. Expect him to get back on track with the season on the line.

3. NFL Fantasy Insights

Cowboys (Temporary) New WR1 Pickens Had 8 Catches, 134 yards and 2 TDs Last Week

By Jack Dougherty

Jets QB Justin Fields vs. Cowboys
Fields has started and finished two games this season. In those games, he scored 29.52 fantasy points against the Steelers and 27.14 against the Dolphins. Now he gets to face a dreadful Cowboys defense that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Fire up Fields as a top-five quarterback option in Week 5. 

Panthers QB Bryce Young vs. Dolphins
At this point, every quarterback who gets to go up against the Dolphins defense is probably worth starting. Miami has given up 29.5 points to Daniel Jones, 26.3 to Drake Maye, 23.02 to Josh Allen and 27.14 to Fields. This secondary is a disaster, so opposing offenses are attacking the Dolphins with shots down the field over and over. That will be the game plan for Young, who should be on your radar in deeper leagues and superflex formats. 

Browns RB Quinshon Judkins vs. Vikings
Judkins got off to a rocky start to his rookie season, but now that he’s on the field, he’s dominating Cleveland’s backfield. Since taking over the starting job in Week 3, the Ohio State and Ole Miss product has recorded 39 rushes for 176 yards and two touchdowns to go along with five catches for 34 yards. Judkins is coming off a 21.5-point performance against the Lions, and now he gets to travel overseas to face a Vikings defense that just surrendered 31.4 PPR points to Kenneth Gainwell. 

Texans RB Woody Marks @ Ravens
The Marks era in Houston has officially begun. After playing 30 or fewer snaps in each of the first three games of the season, Marks played 40 of the team’s 71 offensive snaps in Week 4 and made the most of his big opportunity. The rookie rushed for 69 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries and added four catches for 50 yards and a score through the air against the Titans, solidifying his place as the RB to own in Houston. The Ravens have surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing running backs in the NFL, so do anything to get Marks on your roster if he’s still a free agent. 

Giants WR Darius Slayton @ Saints
Malik Nabers is out for the season after tearing his ACL in Week 4, opening the door for Slayton to possibly take over as Jaxson Dart’s No. 1 receiving option. Although he finished the game against the Chargers with just three catches for 44 yards, Slayton still led the Giants in both categories. His usage will only grow as he develops a deeper rapport with Dart. Slayton is a decent flex option this week against a Saints defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in points allowed per game (30.3).

Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy @ Jaguars
Fantasy owners may have been wary of starting Worthy in his return from injury last week, but he looked great. Despite playing only 59% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps, Worthy led the team in targets (8) and turned his seven touches into 121 total yards and 17.1 PPR points. The Chiefs are desperate for skill players who can create explosive plays, so Worthy should be busy against a Jaguars defense that ranks 22nd in points allowed to wide receivers. 

Lions WR Jameson Williams @ Bengals
Williams is averaging just 9.4 PPR points per game through four weeks, but his big-play ability always makes him an enticing start in friendly matchups. Speaking of friendly matchups, let us introduce you to the Bengals defense. Cincinnati has given up 27, 48 and 28 points in its last three games. Most importantly for Williams, the Bengals have already surrendered 11 pass plays of at least 20 yards. 

Cowboys WR George Pickens @ Jets
Pickens immediately jumped to the must-start zone after CeeDee Lamb was diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, and he paid off fantasy managers right away. Without Lamb on the field, Pickens put up eight catches on 11 targets for 134 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers, good enough for 33.4 PPR points. This isn’t the easiest matchup against Sauce Gardner and the Jets, but Dak Prescott will still feed Pickens with deep targets no matter who’s marking him. 

Commanders TE Zach Ertz @ Chargers
Ertz has only five catches for 59 yards over the last two games, but that was with Marcus Mariota under center. If Jayden Daniels returns from his knee injury in Week 5, upgrade Ertz to a top-12 TE option. In two games with Daniels under center this season, Ertz saw 13 total targets, scored two touchdowns and scored 11.6 and 18.4 PPR points. 

Dolphins TE Darren Waller @ Panthers
Waller returned to an NFL field last week for the first time since he retired in 2024, and he looked better than anyone could’ve predicted. The tight end caught three of his four targets for 27 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets, giving him 17.7 PPR points in his Dolphins debut. Now, Waller played only 28% of Miami’s offensive snaps. It’s highly unlikely he repeats that performance in Week 5, but Waller should eventually become a big part of this passing game with Tyreek Hill now out for the season.

4. Public Money

The 6 NFL Games Where 70%+ of Spread Bettors Have Their Money With One Team

MLB

• Tigers (+108) vs. Guardians (-132): 79% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Cleveland [C. Mize vs. T. Bibee]

• Padres (-102) vs. Cubs (-119): 71% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Chicago [D. Cease vs. A. Kittredge]

• Red Sox (+1.5, -144) vs. Yankees (-1.5, +120): 71% of the money and 62% of the bets are with New York [B. Bello vs. C. Rondon]

• Reds (+1.5, +108) vs. Dodgers (-1.5, -130): 95% of the money and 91% of the bets are with Los Angeles [Z. Littell vs. Y. Yamamoto]

NFL

• 49ers (+5.5, +100) vs. Rams (-5.5, -122): 84% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Raiders (+6.5, -105) vs. Colts (-6.5, -115): 70% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Indianapolis

• Cowboys (-2.5, -115) vs. Jets (+2.5, -105): 79% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Dallas

• Commanders (+2.5, -102) vs. Chargers (-2.5, -120): 76% of the money and 79% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Lions (-10.5, -104) vs. Bengals (+10.5, -118): 96% of the money and 92% of the bets are with Detroit

• Chiefs (-3, -118) vs. Jaguars (+3, -104): 89% of the money and 84% of the bets are with Kansas City

5. Overtime

In the News 

• The NFL season is starting with a substantial number of injuries to star players.

• Lynx star Napheesa Collier, vice president of the WNBA Players Association, said the league has the “worst leadership in the world.”

• Angels manager Ron Washington, who was on medical leave after undergoing quadruple bypass surgery, was fired by the club.

• Jonathan Kuminga ended the stalemate with the Warriors and signed a two-year deal.

• The Browns are benching quarterback Joe Flacco after all and bringing in rookie … Dillon Gabriel as the starter.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 1pm: Tigers (1-0) vs. Guardians on ESPN

• 3pm: Padres vs. Cubs (1-0) on ABC

• 3pm: Barcelona vs. PSG in Champions League action on Paramount+

• 6pm: Red Sox (1-0) vs. Yankees on ESPN

• 9pm: Reds vs. Dodgers (1-0) on ESPN