In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Checking in on MLB odds

2. Bets to Watch: Brewers have 16-6 run advantage over Cubs through 2 games

3. NFL Fantasy: Flowers has a tough matchup and likely backup QB

4. Public Money: A look at all 4 Division Series games and WNBA Finals Game 3

5. Overtime: Did the Bengals figure out a temporary quarterback fix?

1. Leading Off

All four MLB Division Series matchups are in action today, with the Brewers (at Cubs) and Dodgers (home vs. Phillies) both going for sweeps in the National League. On the American League side, the Mariners can move onto the ALCS with a win in Detroit, while Yankees rookie pitcher Cam Schlittler will try to send the series back to Toronto for a decisive Game 5.

Mid-series is an interesting time to look ahead at the betting markets, as there can be some value when teams fall behind. The Mariners (+155) are currently favored to win the American League, followed by the Blue Jays (+170), Yankees (+340) and Tigers (+700). The Dodgers are the heavy favorites to win the National League at -170, followed by the Brewers (+185), Phillies (+1400) and Cubs (+1500).

Los Angeles (+150) also is the favorite to win the World Series, with Milwaukee (+460), Seattle (+480), Toronto (+550) and New York (+800) following.

If you want more MLB insights on this four-game day, read ESPN’s hot takes from the first week of playoff action.

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Suzuki Hit 7 Home Runs Across Past 9 Games, Has 1+ Hit in 11 of 12

By Todd Cordell

Mariners CF Julio Rodriguez over 0.5 singles (-110 at DraftKings)
Rodriguez is a much better contact hitter against right-handed pitching. He produced more power vs. lefties but hit for higher average, and struck out less frequently, when facing righties like Casey Mize. He throws a lot of sinkers, which Rodriguez posted a .366 average against this season. 

Cubs RF Seiya Suzuki over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+106 at DraftKings)
After an underwhelming second half of the season, Suzuki has flipped the switch and turned into one of the hottest batters in baseball. He’s homered seven times over his past nine games, during which time he’s averaged 3.4 H+R+R and cleared eight different occasions. Suzuki is 3-10 against Quinn Priester and hits for by far his highest average against the sinker, Preister’s most used pitch.

Phillies C J.T. Realmuto over 0.5 singles (+125 at Bet365)
Realmuto hit a single in 54% of his games this season and posted identical splits, not being impacted when playing on the road. He draws a tough assignment Wednesday night in Yoshinobu Yamamoto but he appears well equipped to handle it. Yamamoto throws a lot of fastballs, which is good news for Realmuto. He hit .283 against the fastball this year with just two of his hits going for homers. He consistently got on base but generated little power.

Brewers CF Jackson Chourio over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-109 at DraftKings)
Chourio enters this contest in top form. He has produced at least three H+R+R in each of his past four games and combined for 13 over the first two games of this series. He now draws Jameson Taillon, who he has feasted on in the past. Chourio is 7-13 against Taillon with a .385 ISO. While Chourio generally performs better against left-handed pitching, that is somewhat offset by Taillon’s struggles vs. righties. Look for Chourio to have another big performance for the Brewers.

Brewers moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
The Brewers were the best team in the majors during the regular season and they have looked the part in the playoffs, sweeping the Cubs in Milwaukee while winning 16-6 in aggregate. A lot of their best hitters — Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, etc. — are teeing off in the playoffs and now draw a pitcher they’ve enjoyed great success against in the past. Factor in the Cubs are struggling offensively (they have 12 runs through five playoff games) and keeping up with the Brewers’ offense seems like a lot to ask.

NHL

Golden Knights RW Mitch Marner over 0.5 assists (-125 at FanDuel)
The Golden Knights handed Marner a $96 million contract to play with Jack Eichel on the top line and create offense. While he is a dual threat player and strong defender, his bread and butter is his playmaking. Marner will ride shotgun with Eichel at 5v5 and is quarterbacking the power play on a five forward unit. He is quite familiar playing that role from his time in Toronto. He will be distributing the puck every chance he gets and, playing against a backup goaltender in Anton Forsberg, the Golden Knights have a higher offensive floor and ceiling than they otherwise would against Los Angeles.

Golden Knights C Jack Eichel over 2.5 shots (-140 at FanDuel)
Eichel averaged more than 10 shots per 60 minutes of 5v5 play when skating with Marner in preseason play. Eichel’s shot is also a focal point on the man advantage so he could be in for a big shooting season. Although the Kings are a consistently solid shot suppression team, their defense downgraded in the off-season and could also take some time to gel with several new faces. Eichel recorded three shots or more in each of his last two vs. Los Angeles.

Oilers C Connor McDavid over 2.5 shots (-154 at DraftKings)
McDavid has said he wants to score more goals this season. You have to shoot the puck to score, so it feels safe to assume we’ll also see an uptick in shot volume from the league’s best player. McDavid averaged 3.5 shots per game at home last year while clearing this line at a 60% clip. He also recorded five shots in his only meeting against the Flames. The volume should be there in this one.

Capitals LW Pierre-Luc Dubois over 0.5 points (-135 at DraftKings)
Dubois is coming off the best season of his career, having set new highs in assists and points. He did his best work on home ice, recording a point in 57% of games. His hit rate jumped to 67% in home wins. That is notable as the Capitals are nearly -200 favorites against the Bruins in their season opener.

Maple Leafs RW William Nylander over 2.5 shots (-135 at FanDuel)
This line seems off. Nylander was one of the best volume shooters in the league a year ago, especially when playing in Toronto. He averaged 3.6 shots per game while clearing this line at a healthy 67% rate. He also enjoyed great success against Montreal, producing shot totals of four and seven at home. With Mitch Marner gone, there could be even more touches to go around on the power play. This price is short.

3. NFL Fantasy Insights

Odunze Has 1+ Touchdown in All 4 Bears Games This Season

By Craig Williams

⬆️ Cowboys RB Javonte Williams
We’re planting our feet firmly onto the Javonte Train. He’s handled 40 touches over the past two weeks, and we expect him to continue receiving a heavy dose of opportunities and touches against a Panthers defense that allows 4.5 yards per carry. It’s also a bit of a homecoming for Williams, who played his high school and college ball in North Carolina. The Cowboys have a bit of momentum and will enter this contest with a chance at going above .500.

⬆️ Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan
McMillan is enjoying a very solid rookie season so far, garnering 25.3% of the team’s target share and averaging 14.3 yards per catch. The Cowboys have been victimized by wide receivers to a large degree this season, and we expect McMillan to continue hogging target share. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but the Cowboys have allowed 10 touchdowns to wide receivers, so this is a friendly spot for McMillan on paper.

⬆️ Cardinals RB Michael Carter
Emari Demercado has a one-way ticket to the doghouse after fumbling a surefire touchdown inches before the goal line. Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell pulled a similar gaffe in Week 4, and he went from 54 snaps in Week 4 and 78 snaps between Weeks 3-4 to a season-low six in Week 5. Carter played 39 snaps in his first action of the season, and we can expect him to play another heavy load this week. He wasn’t efficient — 3.1 yards per touch on 24 touches — but he scored 15.8 FanDuel points, and he should receive the opportunity to find the paint again.

⬆️ Bears WR Rome Odunze
Consider this a quadrupling or quintupling down on Odunze, who has scored in each of the Bears’ four games this season. He’s averaging 17.4 FanDuel points and 20.7 DraftKings points, but it’s more about his ability to produce high-scoring outbursts that keeps our attention. He “only” has one such game so far, but with his ability to hog targets, operate at multiple levels of the passing attack, and find the end zone, we expect him to deliver more explosive matchup-altering performances.

⬆️ Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty
We’re considering Jeanty here more for those partaking in daily contests. Given the absences at the position, traditional fantasy managers are very unlikely to be in a position to bench Jeanty. It’s been a slow start to the season for Jeanty, who is averaging 9.2 FanDuel points outside of his Week 4 breakout. But the 1-4 Titans present an opponent to pick on. They’re allowing 5.0 yards per carry, and are unlikely to muster the offense necessary to take the Raiders out of their desire to run the rock.

⬇️ Giants QB Jaxon Dart
Those who are in a tough spot quarterback-wise might not have a better option than Dart, but we encourage those managers to curb their expectations. The Giants are entering an awful spot against an Eagles team that just suffered a frustrating loss. New York is 3-7 over their past 10 head-to-head matchups, and have averaged 16.3 points across those games. Dart’s rushing ability remains valuable for fantasy managers, even against a stout defense, but the floor is lower, especially on a short week.

⬇️ Jets WR Garrett Wilson
Wilson’s 11.6 yards per catch leaves a bit to be desired, but he’s still winning on volume (his 48 targets are 20 more than the second-most targeted pass-catcher) and touchdowns (four). He’s also producing the highest catch rate of his career. The challenge in London will be facing off against a stingy Broncos defense and having to deal with All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. He faced off against Surtain last season and finished with a lackluster 5-41 line and 4.6 FanDuel points. Benching Wilson comes with some risk, but his floor is low enough to consider it this week.

⬇️ Ravens WR Zay Flowers
The Ravens’ struggles to this point have been concerning, both offensively and defensively. We’re focused on Flowers and fading him against a difficult Rams opponent that will be rested and coming off of a frustrating loss. He enjoyed a respectable performance last week with Cooper Rush under center — five receptions, 72 yards — but that still only produced 9.7 FanDuel points. The likelihood of him reaching his ceiling is seriously capped this week, and it’s worth considering alternate options if you’re fortunate to have them.

⬇️ Saints WR Chris Olave
Olave, like a number of Saints, is enduring a terrible season. He’s dominating target share (31.6%), but is averaging a putrid 7.4 yards per reception. And given his 7.9 average depth of target, his 61.1% catch rate is sub-par. Drew Brees isn’t walking through the facility doors, nor is Aaron Brooks for that matter. We’re wiling to encourage fantasy managers to park Olave on their benches — if they haven’t already. 

⬇️ Panthers RB Rico Dowdle
We’re not suggesting Dowdle doesn’t belong in your lineups this week — and for as long as Chuba Hubbard is hurt. We’re just tampering expectations. The “revenge game” narrative will add to a rosy outlook, especially against the defensively deficient Cowboys, but these spots can often be fool’s gold. As is the case with many “down” picks, context matters. With injuries and byes already taxing the fantasy landscape, we’re not necessarily suggesting you need to bench Dowdle. Just don’t pin all of your hopes on a repeat of last week’s outburst.

4. Public Money

Bettors Are Behind Dodgers to Get the Sweep Over the Phillies

MLB

Mariners (B. Miller) vs. Tigers (C. Mize): SEA leads 2-1

• Spread — Mariners (-1.5, +162), Tigers (+1.5, -196): 52% of the money is with Seattle but 53% of the bets are with Detroit

• Moneyline — Tigers -112, Mariners -104: 51% of the money is with Detroit but 59% of the bets are with Seattle

• Total (8.5) — Over -105, Under -115: 59% of the money and 58% of the bets are on the over

Brewers (Q. Priester) vs. Cubs (J. Taillon): MIL leads 2-0

• Spread — Brewers (-1.5, +180), Cubs (+1.5, -220): 74% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Moneyline — Cubs -120, Brewers +102: 51% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Total (6.5) — Over -118, Under -104: 69% of the money and 84% of the bets are on the over

Blue Jays (L. Varland) vs. Yankees (C. Schlittler): TOR leads 2-1

• Spread — Yankees (-1.5, +115), Blue Jays (+1.5, -138): 94% of the money and 69% of the bets are with New York

• Moneyline — Yankees -184, Blue Jays +154: 77% of the money and 66% of the bets are with New York

• Total (8.5) — Over -105, Under -115: 62% of the money and 79% of the bets are on the over

Phillies (A. Nola) vs. Dodgers (Y. Yamamoto): LAD lead 2-0

• Spread — Dodgers (-1.5, +118), Phillies (+1.5, -142): 74% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Moneyline — Dodgers -180, Phillies +152: 55% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Total (8.0) — Over -106, Under -114: 68% of the money and 68% of the bets are on the over

WNBA

Aces vs. Mercury: LV leads 2-0

• Spread — Mercury (-4, -110), Aces (+4, -110): 70% of the money is with Phoenix but 83% of the bets are with Las Vegas

• Moneyline — Mercury -188, Aces +152: 58% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Las Vegas

• Total (164.0) — Over/Under -110: 77% of the money and 82% of the bets are on the over

5. Overtime

In the News 

• The Bengals traded for veteran quarterback Joe Flacco to help the team’s quarterback woes. And the Harbaugh brothers traded with each other.

• Aaron Judge credited Monument Park ghosts for his season-saving home run last night.

• The NCAA continues to add rules to shrink the transfer portal time.

• A former Stanford football player donated $50 million to try to turn the program around.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3:08pm: Mariners (2-1) vs. Tigers on FS1

• 5:08pm: Brewers (2-0) vs. Cubs on TBS

• 7:08pm: Blue Jays (2-1) vs. Yankees on FS1

• 7:30pm: Bruins vs. Capitals on TNT (followed by Kings vs. Golden Knights on 10pm)

• 8pm: Aces (2-0) vs. Mercury on ESPN

• 9:08pm: Phillies vs. Dodgers (2-0) on TBS