In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The MLB final four is set — and it is (mostly) not the same old teams

2. NFL Bets to Watch: Mike Tomlin is 5-0 ATS coming off his past 5 byes

3. Public Money: Bettors are overwhelmingly backing the Blue Jays in Game 1

4. Soccer: The Dutch are averaging 3.6 goals per game in WCQ

5. Overtime: A preseason Heisman contender’s season is over

1. Leading Off

The MLB final four is set, and it features a lot of new faces.

In the ALCS, the Toronto Blue Jays are facing the Seattle Mariners. Toronto is seeking its first World Series appearance since winning back-to-back titles in 1992 and 1993. Seattle is, astoundingly, going for its first-ever appearance in the Fall Classic; it is the only active franchise in MLB never to reach that round.

On the other side of the bracket, the Milwaukee Brewers are seeking their first World Series victory, as well as their first trip to the Series since 1982, when as a member of the American League they lost in seven games to the Cardinals. They will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in a rematch of the 2018 NLCS, which the Brewers also lost in seven games. The Dodgers are the one highly familiar team still alive; they, of course, won last year’s World Series.

The ALCS is expected to be a tight series; Toronto (-124 at FanDuel) is a slight favorite over Seattle (+106). The Dodgers, despite not having home-field advantage, are -205 to win; Milwaukee is +172.

Los Angeles is the clear World Series favorite at +115. Toronto (+320) and Seattle (+340) are close behind, with Milwaukee the least-backed at +420.

Here’s a full breakdown of the matchups, complete with predictions, via Yahoo Sports.

—Patrick Dorsey

2. NFL Bets to Watch

Rico Dowdle Faces His Former Team After 206-Yard Rushing Day

By Chris Farley

Saints +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Patriots are coming off a roster-defining win against the Bills. The problem is that it happened far too early in the season. Psychologically, it’s almost impossible for the Patriots to not experience some sort of emotional letdown, on the road in an inter-conference game against an unfamiliar opponent. Drake Maye has proven to be a formidable quarterback, but the Saints’ defense is improving, allowing just 5.3 yards per play to opponents (14th). And their offense is still doing a great job of taking care of the ball (top five in turnover margin). At home and off a big win of their own, we like the Saints to continue playing it close to the vest.

Stefon Diggs under 62.5 yards (-114 at DraftKings)
Last Sunday was Diggs’ coming out party for his new team, flexing an amazing performance (10 catches for 146 yards) against his old franchise — a major part of why the Patriots beat the Bills. But the Saints are surprisingly stout against the pass, permitting only 204 yards through the air per game (9th) and allowing just a 52.58% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks (4th). Through five weeks, their opponents’ leading pass catchers have only gained 75 yards per game against their secondary. Diggs is always capable of a massive gain, but this is another spot where we can expect the Patriots to come back down to earth, since Diggs only averaged 53 receiving yards per game in four prior starts.

Panthers +3 (-108 at DraftKings)
Say what you want about the hapless Bryce Young era in Carolina, but the third-year quarterback and his team are 2-0 at home. Last week they engineered an impressive comeback, climbing their way back from a 17-0 deficit against the Dolphins. Eventually they out-gained the visitors 418 to 248 in total yards, another mark of improvement behind a big performance from backup running back Rico Dowdle and a stingy Carolina defense that sacked Tua Tagovailoa three times and kept the once hyper-explosive Dolphins to just 4.7 yards per game. The Panthers are growing, and we don't see them going down easy against a Dallas operation that's been inconsistent, at best.

Cowboys/Panthers over 49 (-107 at BetOnline)
Reading between the lines on this clash, Dowdle is super excited to face his former team after exploding last week in the RB1 position (23 carries for 206 yards). Young and the offense also perform better at home, and the former Alabama quarterback will have a great matchup against a Cowboys defense that allows 8.4 yards per pass, the worst in the NFL. Dak Prescott looks extremely confident, his offensive line is holding up and Carolina offers no pass rush. Dallas also knows they need to soar ahead in games to win. This has another big scoreboard written all over it.

Rico Dowdle over 72.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel and DraftKings)
Chuba Hubbard, who's battling through a calf injury, will not play on Sunday. Buy signs on the former Cowboys running back are prevalent, especially after last week's dazzling performance (234 total yards and a touchdown). That didn't happen by mistake. Dowdle is a speedy, agile X-factor who was a playmaker as a Cowboy, and in a bigger role he's already looking forward to facing his former team, telling the Dallas defense "they've got to buckle up" when he spoke to the media this week. We love another big all-around performance from the dynamic sixth-year back.

Bengals team total over 14.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
We hit the Bengals' team total last week and the same reasoning applies. Obviously this is a nightmare matchup for the Bengals, especially on the road, but they figured something out offensively in their last showing, putting up 21 points in a garbage-time fourth quarter. Whether they start off respectable or get blown out and more garbage time opportunities appear, this is far too low a number for a team with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and now better quarterback play by trading for Joe Flacco. When an organization makes moves that significant, they're not giving up on their season. This number is far too low for the second straight week.

Jordan Love over 236.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Whether Flacco plays or not, we feel great about Love's matchup on Sunday. Across almost all categories, the Bengals qualify as one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. They're 12th in opponent pass completion percentage (55%), easily their best mark, but they also allow 7.6 yards per pass and the fourth most pass yards per game (259). Love has played his best football at Lambeau Field, cerebral in two starts in front of his fans (480 yards, four touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 66% completion rate). Green Bay will present beautiful weather on Sunday, perfect conditions for their star thrower to dominate again.

Ja'Marr Chase 60+ receiving yards (-144 at FanDuel)
(Note: Chase is listed as questionable but is expected to play.) The addition of Flacco was a positive to Chase, who complimented the Bengals' management and their moves to keep the season alive. Jake Browning just wasn't cutting it, and it resulted in just 16 catches for 183 yards the past three games. Of course, the Packers present a tough defense that permits a league-low 5.6 yards per pass, although they do allow a 68.15% completion rate to opposing throwers (23rd) and they've been getting to the quarterback less, just three sacks in their last two contests. Flacco is unafraid to throw the ball downfield, as we've seen throughout his career, which is an immediate plus for the dynamic former LSU wideout.

49ers/Bucs over 47.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
It’s likely that Mac Jones will start at QB for the 49ers this week, but that won’t erase any confidence from their offense. Last Thursday, Jones showed his moxie and toughness by leading the Niners to a victory over a very good Rams defense, despite taking some wicked shots and having difficulty getting off the field after a few sacks. He was 33-49 for 342 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. On Sunday, San Francisco visits a Bucs offense that’s already one of the premier units in the NFL, averaging 27 points per game (7th). Tampa's starting running back is out, but their best offensive lineman, Tristan Wirfs, is likely to play. We think this gets beyond 50.

Mac Jones over 250.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
(Note: Jones is listed as questionable but is expected to play.) Jones proved gritty and earned his team's trust last week against the Rams, battling past a divisional rival for a win. Against an above-average defense on the road, he led the 49ers to 26 points, 27 first downs and a solid 7-18 mark on third-down conversions. The Bucs are a solid defense but mostly against the run, rated top-five in every major category. Against the pass they're not as formidable, allowing 7.3 yards per throw (24th) and posting a subpar sack rate, just 5.88% (19th in the NFL). Against another high-octane offense, Jones will need to produce.

Mike Tomlin is 5-0 ATS Coming Out of His Past 5 Bye Weeks

By Craig Williams

Broncos -6.5 alternate (-130 at FanDuel)
We like the Broncos from an experience perspective — namely in their coaching ranks with head coach Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. We’re giving the Jets just a little respect here with the alternate spread, but it’s not because they’re doing anything respectable. The Jets are 2-3 against the spread and losing by an average margin of nine points. A trip to London adds another layer of challenges for the Jets to navigate.

Jets under 17.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
There’s a lot working against the Jets right now — their own struggles, the Broncos’ stout defense, and the challenges associated with traveling across the pond. The Broncos are 2nd in points allowed per game and top five in yards per play. The Jets average the fifth fewest passing yards per game, so they’re not built on their aerial mastery. Still, if Justin Fields struggles to get Garrett Wilson in a rhythm against Patrick Surtain II, they will struggle to move the ball and score points.

Chargers vs. Dolphins under 44.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
The Chargers and Dolphins both enter this matchup undermanned on the offensive side. The Dolphins needed the Jets to implode in order to score 27 points, then they managed only seven points in the second half of a loss to the Panthers. The Chargers have lost two straight, but it’s not because of their sixth-ranked defense. They only managed 28 points in those two games, and they’ll play this one without top running back Omarion Hampton. Given the Chargers’ defensive form in conjunction with both teams’ offensive struggles, we like this to be a low-scoring affair.

Jaylen Waddle over 65.5 receiving yards (-115 at Fanatics)
Waddle handled a 26.7% target share in Week 5 and is serving as the clear No. 1 in the wake of Tyreek Hill’s injury. Waddle has demonstrated the chops to serve as the Dolphins’ No. 1 receiving option — he complements a 69.7% career catch rate with a 13.3 YPC. He finished with six catches and 110 yards in his first duty as Tua Tagovailoa’s top option. The Chargers have allowed solid production to opposing wide receivers, and if Waddle leads the team in targets again, he’s a solid bet to hit the over.

Rams over 26.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
The Ravens are allowing the most points per game and their 5.8 yards allowed per play ranks fifth worst. The Rams, meanwhile, are “only” 15th in scoring, but rank No. 3 in yards per play. On a micro level, Puka Nacua has been unstoppable, and Davante Adams has three touchdowns and is averaging 16.2 yards per catch despite not being locked in yet.

Steelers -5.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Mike Tomlin is 5-0 against the spread coming out of his past five bye weeks — and it would be six, but the Steelers “only” won 27-14 as 14-point favorites coming off their 2019 bye. The Steelers only allowed 35 points over their past two contests after looking porous across the first two weeks of the season. Dillon Gabriel was respectable in his first NFL start, and rookie running back Quinshon Judkins has continued to look like a keeper, but Tomlin is 26-6 against rookie quarterbacks, and if veteran Aaron Rodgers can do what he does best — protect the football — they should be able to do enough offensively to win straight-up and against the spread.

Seahawks +1.5 alternate (-138 at DraftKings)
Credit to the Jaguars for winning in a prime-time spot against the Chiefs, but we’re not quite ready to fully buy in despite their 4-1 start. The Seahawks are coming off of a tough loss to the Buccaneers at home, but they’re playing well offensively and defensively. The issue we’re considering goes beyond numbers. It takes time for upstarts — like the Jags — to learn how to win consistently. We’ve seen teams enjoy short spurts of success only to revert to levels of mediocrity. Maybe the Jags will be a playoff team this season, but Sunday’s contest will be a big test for them as they try to maintain a high level of play.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 75.5 receiving yards (-115 at Hard Rock Bet)
JSN enters Sunday with a massive 33.1 target share, and he is inflicting damage in an incredibly efficient manner with 15.7 yards per catch and a 79.1 catch rate. It’s the formula of a top-flight wide receiver — dominate targets and catch a lot of them for big yardage. He’s averaging 106.8 yards per game and has not finished below 79 receiving yards through five contests. The Jaguars have allowed three wide receivers to go over the 75.5-yard mark so far, and they’re allowing 250.4 passing yards per game, sixth most in the league.

Tyler Warren over 50.5 receiving yards (-114 at DraftKings)
Warren is delivering the Colts a return on their investment so far, producing a 20.7% target share and 13.3 yards per catch. The Cardinals have allowed their past two opposing tight ends to go over this number, and Warren should continue to factor heavily into the passing attack. He’s surpassed 51 receiving yards in three of five games so far.

Colts -6.5 alternate (-173 at DraftKings)
The Colts are tearing teams up offensively, averaging 32.6 points per game. On paper, the Cardinals’ fourth-ranked defense serves as a stiff challenge, but we’re considering the collective mindset of the team after they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the Tennessee Titans. We’ve seen teams struggle to bounce back from soul-crushing losses, and that’s what the Cardinals experienced last Sunday. Not to mention, Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (foot) is expected out.

3. Public Money

Bettors Overwhelmingly Backing Blue Jays (-1.5) in Game 1 vs. Mariners

NFL

• Browns (+5.5, -102) vs. Steelers (-5.5, -120): 71% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Pittsburgh

• Chargers (-3.5, -114) vs. Dolphins (+3.5, -106): 65% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Patriots (-3.5, -105) vs. Saints (+3.5, -115): 71% of the money and 75% of the bets are with New England

• Seahawks (-1.5, -102) vs. Jaguars (+1.5, -120): 52% of the money is with Seattle, but 51% of the bets are with Jacksonville

• Cardinals (+9.5, -105) vs. Colts (-9.5, -115): 81% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Indianapolis

• Rams (-7, -115) vs. Ravens (+7, -105): 82% of the money and 75% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Cowboys (-3, -110) vs. Panthers (+3, -110): 78% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Dallas

• 49ers (+3.5, -120) vs. Buccaneers (-3.5, -102): 63% of the money and 56% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• Bengals (+14.5, -114) vs. Packers (-14.5, -106): 60% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Cincinnati

• Lions (+2.5, -105) vs. Chiefs (-2.5, -115): 71% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Detroit

MLB

• Mariners vs. Blue Jays (Game 1): Bryce Miller vs. Kevin Gausman

  • Spread — Blue Jays (-1.5, +121), Mariners (+1.5, -148): 94% of the money and 78% of the bets are with Toronto

  • Moneyline — Blue Jays -174, Mariners +141: 81% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Toronto

  • Total — 8 (Over -103, Under -118): 81% of the money and 73% of the bets are with the over

4. Soccer

The Dutch Are Averaging 3.6 Goals Per Game in World Cup Qualifying

By Sam Farley

Netherlands over 2.5 goals (-188 at FanDuel)

• The Dutch are averaging 3.6 goals scored per game after five WC qualifying games.

• The Finnish team has conceded nine goals in six games and gave up two goals to the Netherlands when they met in Helsinki; that’s likely to increase away from home.

Denmark vs. Greece: Both teams to score — No (-116 at FanDuel)

• After three games in WC qualifying the Danes are yet to concede a goal and have only scored in two games themselves.

• Only one team scored when these teams met in September, with Denmark winning that game 3-0 and Greece only registering one shot on target.

Austria to win vs. Romania (-145 at FanDuel)

• Austria are looking for a clean sweep in Group H and have won all five of their games so far, scoring 19 goals and conceding just twice.

• Romania have won just two of five games in qualifying and lost against this same opposition 2-1 when they met in June.

Monday

Germany -1.5 goals vs. Northern Ireland (-118 at FanDuel)

• After three games these teams are level on points, with six from nine, but don’t overthink it — this Germany team is better across the pitch with far more talent.

• The Germans beat Northern Ireland 3-1 in the reverse fixture last month and are likely to win by a margin of two or more goals again, just as they’ve done in the previous five meetings.

5. Overtime

In the News 

• A preseason Heisman contender is now out for the season after sustaining an injury in his team’s latest humiliating loss.

• Arch Manning, on the other hand, was clutch in the biggest win of his young career.

• …but that wasn’t the biggest statement win in the nation on Saturday.

• Lionel Messi made more history Saturday as he took control of the MLS golden boot race.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 1pm: Browns vs. Steelers on CBS (or Chargers vs. Dolphins, Patriots vs. Saints)

• 1pm: Rams vs. Ravens on FOX (or Cardinals vs. Colts, Cowboys vs. Panthers, Seahawks vs. Jaguars, Titans vs. Raiders at 4:05pm)

• 1pm: No. 3 Kentucky vs. LSU in women’s volleyball on ESPN

• 3pm: No. 4 Pittsburgh vs. Florida State in women’s volleyball on ESPN

• 4:25pm: 49ers vs. Buccaneers on CBS (or Bengals vs. Packers)

• 5pm: Angel City FC vs. Houston Dash on ESPN

• 8:03pm: Mariners vs. Blue Jays on FOX (Game 1)

• 8:20pm: Lions vs. Chiefs on NBC