In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: A look at the major NFL races at the one-third point of the season

2. Bets to Watch: Vlad Jr. recorded a single in 58% of road games this year

3. Fantasy Football: Dak’s hot streak looks primed to continue

4. Game of the Day: Can Toronto keep from going down 3-0 in the ALCS?

5. Public Money: The money is behind the Panthers tonight

6. Overtime: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s CG broke an 8-year MLB streak

1. Leading Off

We’re one-third of the way through the NFL season, which means it’s a good time to take a look at where some of the major races stand, odds-wise (all via FanDuel):

MVP
Patrick Mahomes’ magic hasn’t run out; he’s even leading his team in rushing yards. This has the two-time MVP sitting in the favorite’s spot (+200). Close behind is defending MVP Josh Allen (+300), whose team has dropped two in a row but is impossible to count out as a potential 1-seed. The last serious candidate at the moment wasn’t on many radars before the season: Baker Mayfield (+350), whose magic has pushed Tampa Bay to a 5-1 record.

Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year
OPOY has gone to non-quarterbacks lately, and the odds see it happening again; Jonathan Taylor (-105) is, pun intended, running away with it, although Bijan Robinson (+360) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+500) might have something to say. On the other side of the ball, Broncos standout Nik Bonitto (+340) has the edge in a tight race with Aidan Hutchinson (+360), Micah Parsons (+360) and Myles Garrett (+500).

Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year
OROY has a lot of candidates — Emeka Egbuka and Ashton Jeanty at +450, Tyler Warren at +750, Tetairoa McMillan at +850 — but all are well behind QB Jaxson Dart, whose two wins in his opening three starts for the always-well-covered-by-the-media Giants have him at +100. Speaking of the Giants, Abdul Carter (+175) is tops on the other side of the ball despite registering just 13 tackles and 0.5 sacks so far; Eagles LB Jihaad Campbell (40 tackles, 1 FF, 1 INT) is +290 and Browns LB Carson Schwesinger (52 tackles, 1 sack) is +470.

Super Bowl
The writing off of Kansas City is, for the time being, over, as the winners of three of the past six Super Bowls are favored to make it four in seven. KC’s odds are just +650, though, slightly ahead of Buffalo (+700) and Green Bay (+700), with Detroit (+850) and defending-champion Philadelphia (+950) also nearby. Preseason contender Baltimore has fallen to +2200 after a 1-5 start.

—Patrick Dorsey

2. Bets to Watch

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Recorded a Single in 58% of Road Games This Season

By Todd Cordell

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 singles (-114 at DraftKings)
Guerrero Jr. hit a ton of singles this season, especially on the road. He picked up at least one in 58% of all away games. He recorded six over his first four playoff games, including both road appearances in New York. Vladdy very rarely went more than a couple in a row without a single and he didn’t record one, let alone a hit, over the first two against Seattle. He hit .314 against sinkers by righties this season, which is George Kirby’s most used pitch. Look for Guerrero Jr. to take advantage.

Julio Rodriguez over 0.5 singles (-104 at DraftKings)
Rodriguez is off to a productive start to the series with a pair of hits, runs, and three RBIs through two games. He’s positioned well to build on that success against Shane Bieber, who did not pitch overly well after arriving from Cleveland, allowing a .297 average and .298 ISO to right-handed bats. Rodriguez hit .271 vs. righties during the regular season, and 64% of those hits were singles.

Daulton Varsho over 1.5 total bases (+175 at FanDuel)
Varsho hits for power and little else. Of his 46 hits vs. right-handed pitchers this season, 33 went for extra bases. That’s a whopping 72%. He managed ISOs of .260 or higher vs. each of Kirby’s top three pitches against left-handed batters, making him well equipped to do some damage in this matchup.

NHL

Fabian Zetterlund over 1.5 shots (-150 at ESPNBet)
Zetterlund has multiple shots in two of three games this season. He is now skating on the top line and headed for more opportunity with captain Brady Tkachuk sidelined due to injury. Zetterlund is skating on a line opposite Drake Batherson, who really helped boost his shot rates a season ago. Zetterlund averaged more than 22 shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5v5 play. That’s a very healthy rate. He should have plenty of opportunities to put that shot to use against a Buffalo team that is giving up 5v5 shots at the 7th highest rate.

Drake Batherson over 0.5 points (-148 at DraftKings)
Batherson is another guy who might benefit from Tkachuk’s absence. He stepped up in a big way without Tkachuk last year, recording points in seven of 10 games. He is going to play on the No. 1 line as well as on the top power play, where a lot of it will run through him on the flanks. Batherson has points in nine of his last 12 on the road dating back to last year and should be able to pick up where he left off in this advantageous matchup.

Nick Schmaltz over 0.5 points (-148 at DraftKings)
The Flames’ roster has one of the league’s best starters in Dustin Wolf. They don’t have anybody competent behind him. After using Wolf on Tuesday night against the Vegas Golden Knights, they’ll be turning to backup Devin Cooley in this road back-to-back. I’m skeptical he’ll hold up. Cooley owns an .870 save percentage through six career NHL starts and struggled mightily in the preseason, posting an .846 save percentage. Schmaltz ranks 2nd on the Mammoth in scoring chances and skates on a line with their most productive player, Clayton Keller, at 5v5 and on the power play. He should have plenty of opportunities to test Cooley.

Mikhail Sergachev over 0.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
We’re going to double dip with Mammoth players as well. They’re trading as -230 home favorites and Sergachev was consistently productive in winning efforts last season, picking up a point in 66% of victories. That was even more so the case without Sean Durzi, one of their best offensive defensemen who is again sidelined with an injury. Sergachev hit the scoresheet in 78% of Utah’s wins without Durzi in the lineup. After three straight pointless efforts to start the year, this is a great spot for Sergachev to rebound.

Jordan Kyrou over 0.5 points (-145 at DraftKings)
Kyrou is a Blackhawks killer. They have been bottom feeders for a few years now and Kyrou has taken full advantage, hitting the scoresheet in 11 of the past 14 head-to-head meetings. The Blackhawks rank dead last in expected goal share in the early going of this season, meaning they’re spending a ton of time on their heels and getting out-chanced as badly as anybody. This is a great matchup for Kyrou to get going offensively.

Josh Doan over 1.5 shots (-150 at ESPNBet)
Doan has very quickly become a favorite of Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff. His usage has increased in each game thus far, with Doan’s shot totals rising as well. He had two shots in 12 minutes in Game 1, three shots in 16 minutes in Game 2, and four shots in nearly 18 minutes in Game 3. Doan is clearly someone Ruff trusts. With the Sabres struggling, and talk of potential changes in management and behind the bench, Doan is likely to be leaned on heavily.

Brad Marchand over 0.5 points (-140 at FanDuel)
Marchand was a monster in last year’s playoffs and he has picked up where he left off, hitting the scoresheet in three of four games thus far. With injuries to stars like Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, he finds himself playing a crucial role on the No. 1 line and power play. The Red Wings have mostly played well thus far but their goaltending has been quite poor, which could work in Marchand’s favor Wednesday night.

3. Fantasy Football

Dak Prescott (22+ FP in Last 3 Games) Set to Face Porous WSH Defense

By Jack Dougherty

⬆️ Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
After rough fantasy performances against the Eagles and Bears earlier in the year, Prescott has turned it on with 30.96, 28.28 and 22.34 points in his last three starts. The veteran QB leads the NFL in completions (164) and pass attempts (229) this season, mostly because Dallas’ defense gives up so many easy points that the offense is forced to air it out and keep up. Now, Prescott gets to face a Commanders defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed per pass (8.2) and 27th in fantasy points allowed to QBs.

⬆️ Bengals QB Joe Flacco
Flacco attempted 45 passes and scored 18.76 fantasy points in his Bengals debut because Cincinnati was playing from behind for most of the game. That game script will keep repeating itself due to Cincy’s terrible defense, which is good news for Flacco fantasy owners. The 40-year-old hooked up with Ja’Marr Chase 10 times on 12 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown, and that was after only a few days of practicing and preparing with his new No. 1 target. Flacco is a decent start in two-quarterback leagues against an overrated Steelers defense.

⬆️ Browns RB Quinshon Judkins
Death, taxes and running backs going off against the Dolphins defense. Last week, the Dolphins gave up 124 rushing yards to Kimani Vidal. The week prior, Rico Dowdle torched them for 206 rushing yards and a touchdown. Before that, Justin Fields and Breece Hall each rushed for 81 yards, and James Cook rumbled for 108. Miami has the worst run defense in the NFL right now, and it’s not showing any signs of improvement. Fire up Judkins as a top-10 RB this week.

⬆️ Steelers RB Jaylen Warren
Warren owners had to be worried after Kenneth Gainwell put up 134 total yards and two touchdowns as the Steelers’ starter in Week 4, but Warren returned to his normal post after the bye. Warren played 53 percent of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps and recorded 63 total yards on only 13 touches last week. This week, Warren gets a juicy matchup against the Bengals, who rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to running backs. He should be a big part of the game plan on Thursday night.

⬆️ Chiefs WR Rashee Rice
Rice is set to make his season debut in Week 7 after serving his six-game suspension, and fantasy owners should slot him into their starting lineups right away. The last time we saw Rice on the field, he had 24 catches, 288 receiving yards and two touchdowns through three games before suffering a season-ending injury. The Chiefs’ passing game is rolling right now, and Patrick Mahomes should have no issues working in Rice and his fresh legs right away. The Raiders have allowed the fifth-most points to opposing wide receivers.

⬆️ Bengals WR Tee Higgins
Higgins has probably been rotting on your bench since Week 3, but he showed some signs of life last week with Flacco at the helm. The star wide receiver recorded season-high marks in targets (8), catches (5) and receiving yards (62) against the Packers. Say what you want about Flacco, but he still has the ability to push the ball downfield and give his horses a chance to make big plays. Higgins is back in the WR2/flex tier with Flacco under center.

⬆️ Rams WR Jordan Whittington
With WR Puka Nacua nursing an ankle injury and uncertain for Sunday’s game against the Jaguars in London, Whittington becomes an immediate waiver-wire add. Whittington led all Rams wide receivers in snaps (92 percent) last week, pulling in three of his four targets for 23 yards. He will be much busier in this pass-heavy offense when Sean McVay has a full week to put together a game plan for life without Nacua. Consider Whittington a flex play if Nacua sits out.

⬆️ Jets TE Mason Taylor
Taylor has a ton of talent as a pass-catcher, but his production entirely depends on how Justin Fields performs in a given week. The rookie caught only one pass for two yards last week because Fields struggled against the Broncos, but he also recorded a combined 19 targets, 14 catches and 132 yards against the Dolphins and Cowboys before that. The Panthers offer an easy matchup for Fields, and they’ve given up a touchdown to opposing tight ends in three straight games.

⬆️ Buccaneers TE Cade Otton
Baker Mayfield is quickly running out of receivers. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin didn’t practice last week and missed Sunday’s game against the 49ers, and now Emeka Egbuka is expected to miss time with a hamstring injury. Otton might be Mayfield’s No. 1 target in Week 7. When the Bucs were dealing with similar WR injuries last season, Otton exploded for 25 catches on 31 targets, 258 receiving yards and three touchdowns in a three-game stretch.

⬆️ Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr.
Dillon Gabriel certainly loves feeding his tight ends. Through his first two starts, the rookie quarterback has targeted Fannin and David Njoku a combined 29 times. Those targets are about to be concentrated to Fannin, as Njoku is dealing with a knee injury and might not play in Week 7. If Njoku sits, Fannin is a sneaky top-10 option at tight end this week.

4. Game of the Day

Mariners (-1.5) Are Favored to Push Blue Jays to Brink in ALCS

We’ve had four League Championship Series games in 2025, and the home team has won zero. The Blue Jays certainly hope that trend continues Wednesday, as a loss in Game 3 would put Toronto in a position that only one MLB team has ever come back from. The Blue Jays are looking for an awakening from their bats; after averaging nearly five runs per game this regular season, they’ve put up just four total in the first two contests.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners (2-0)
8:08pm ET on FS1

• Spread: Mariners -1.5 (+162), Blue Jays +1.5 (-200)

• Moneyline: Mariners -137, Blue Jays +113

• Total (7): Over -115, Under -106

Public Money

• Spread: 79% of the money and 54% of the bets are with Seattle

• Moneyline: 58% of the money is with Toronto, while the bets are split 50-50

• Total: 76% of the money and 75% of the bets are with the over

Players to Watch

Blue Jays

• P Shane Bieber: 0-0, 6.75 ERA, 2.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 2.25 WHIP

• 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 9-24 (.375 AVG), 5 R, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 3 BB, 1 K

• 2B Ernie Clement: 10-21 (.476 AVG), 6 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI

Mariners

• P George Kirby: 0-0, 2.70 ERA, 10.0 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 14 K, 1.00 WHIP

• C Cal Raleigh: 10-28 (.357 AVG), 5 R, 1 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 6 BB, 10 K

• 2B Jorge Polanco: 8-31 (.258), 5 R, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 2 BB, 9 K

5. Public Money

The Money is Heavily Behind the Panthers (-1.5) Tonight at the Red Wings

College Football

• Delaware (-3, -105) vs. Jacksonville State (+3, -115): 64% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Delaware

• UTEP (-2.5, -118) vs. Sam Houston (+2.5, -102): 73% of the money and 61% of the bets are with UTEP

NHL

• Panthers (3-1-0) vs. Red Wings (2-1-0)

  • Spread — Panthers -1.5 (+180), Red Wings +1.5 (-218): 79% of the money is with Florida, but 51% of the bets are with Detroit

  • Moneyline — Panthers -142, Red Wings +120: 73% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Florida

  • Total — 5.5 (Over -125, Under +105): 83% of the money and 81% of the bets are with the over

• Senators (1-2-0) vs. Sabres (0-3-0)

  • Spread — Senators -1.5 (+205), Sabres +1.5 (-250): 69% of the money is with Ottawa, but 63% of the bets are with Buffalo

  • Moneyline — Senators -120, Sabres +100: 71% of the money is with Buffalo, but 54% of the bets are with Ottawa

  • Total — 5.5 (Over -135, Under +114): 74% of the money and 72% of the bets are with the over

• Blackhawks (1-2-1) vs. Blues (2-1-0)

  • Spread — Blues -1.5 (+114), Blackhawks +1.5 (-135): 63% of the money and 54% of the bets are with St. Louis

  • Moneyline — Blues -238, Blackhawks +195: 73% of the money and 84% of the bets are with St. Louis

  • Total — 5.5 (Over -130, Under +110): 91% of the money and 79% of the bets are with the over

• Flames (1-3-0) vs. Mammoth (1-2-0)

  • Spread — Mammoth -1.5 (+110), Flames +1.5 (-130): 51% of the money is with Calgary, while the bets are split 50-50

  • Moneyline — Mammoth -230, Flames +190: 53% of the money is with Calgary, but 71% of the bets are with Utah

  • Total — 5.5 (Over -135, Under +114): 92% of the money and 84% of the bets are with the over

6. Overtime

In the News 

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw the first playoff complete game since 2017.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo wants to finish his basketball career outside the NBA.

• A former Jets great is seeking a kidney donor to help him fight his chronic disease.

• Christian Pulisic was injured in the USMNT’s friendly vs. Australia.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Delaware vs. Jacksonville State on ESPN

• 7pm: Panthers vs. Red Wings on TNT

• 8:08pm: Blue Jays vs. Mariners (2-0) on FS1

• 9:30pm: Blackhawks vs. Blues on TNT

• 10:30pm: Mavericks vs. Lakers in NBA preseason on ESPN