In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The bull case for the Chiefs

2. Bets to Watch: Raptors Poetl has low assist total to start season

3. NFL Analysis: Comparing sportsbook win totals to strength of schedule

4. Public Money: Where bettors have their money in all 12 NBA games

5. Overtime: The coach-QB war of words you didn’t know you needed

1. Leading Off

Don’t look now, but the Chiefs are suddenly the significant favorite to win the Super Bowl. Kansas City, 4-3, is +500 at FanDuel, ahead of Detroit and Buffalo (+700), Green Bay (+800), Philadelphia (+950), and Indianapolis (+1200). It’s not like the Chiefs have an easy road, as Tankathon gives them the 15th-toughest remaining schedule with the Colts, Bills, Chargers and Broncos (twice) left to play.

So are sportsbooks confident in the Chiefs or reverting to what’s comfortable in an unpredictable season? Kansas City gains the fifth-most yards total per game (370.6) and gives up the fifth-fewest (280.3). The Chiefs have the third-best point differential in the league (+62, behind the Lions +64 and Colts +92). Their three losses have come by a combined 12 points to opponents with a combined 13-7 record. And Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown for 1,800 yards (164-248) and has 14 touchdowns to two interceptions with a 102.9 rating, is now the favorite to with his third MVP award (+125).

Kansas City is favored by 10.5 in a Monday Night Football home matchup against the Commanders, who could be without quarterback Jayden Daniels again. The week after, the Chiefs travel to Buffalo to face the Bills in a game that will give us a better idea of who should be the Super Bowl favorite as the first half of the season comes to a close.

—Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Bridges Should Rack Up P+R+A With Knicks Starting Season Banged Up

By Todd Cordell

Knicks G Mikal Bridges over 23.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at FanDuel)
This line doesn’t make much sense. Bridges cleared it more often than not last season while never really hitting his stride under Tom Thibodeau. He now has a new head coach in Mike Brown who will keep more players involved and push for more flow on offense. Brown wants to get Bridges going and make him a bigger part of the team, which we saw during preseason play when his average PRA spiked. With Josh Hart and Mitch Robinson out, and Karl-Anthony Towns questionable, there could be more touches and minutes to go around in the season opener. Look for Bridges to take advantage.

Trail Blazers G Shaedon Sharpe over 20.5 points (-105 at FanDuel)
Sharpe piled up the points to finish last season, going over in eight of his final 10 games while averaging 25.3 along the way. One of the only unders came against a Cavaliers team that dominated the entire year. His usage should continue to expand with Scoot Henderson sidelined, leading to more time on the ball and extra shooting opportunities.

Raptors F Brandon Ingram over 27.5 points + rebounds + assists (-108 at DraftKings)
Ingram’s role is somewhat of an unknown in Toronto’s offense – he’s yet to play a regular season game with the Raptors – but that could be leading to a discounted price. Ingram is an excellent bucket-getter and was given a huge contract to stay in Toronto. They didn’t give him that money to play a limited role in the offense. The Hawks play with a lot of pace and this game should be competitive, increasing Ingram’s upside.

Raptors C Jakob Poetl over 1.5 assists (-165 at FanDuel)
The Raptors have more talent and depth this season, but they’re still thin on bigs and lacking in the front court. They are also lacking in true facilitators, with a lot of their best players (Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, etc.) better scorers than passers. Poetl is likely going to be tasked with plenty of playmaking responsibilities. Not to mention, he cleared this line in 86% of his games with worse surroundings a season ago.

NHL

Devils D Luke Hughes over 1.5 shots (-128 at FanDuel)
Hughes hasn’t posted gaudy shot totals yet he’s found a way to clear this line in all six games this season. What makes that especially impressive is five of the six opponents were playoff teams a year ago and four cracked the top-10 in terms of pre-season Stanley Cup odds. The schedule has been very difficult. Minnesota has played a high-event brand of hockey and ranks in the bottom half of the league in shot suppression, which should help increase Hughes’ floor and ceiling.

Wild LW Kirill Kaprizov over 0.5 assists (-110 at DraftKings)
Kaprizov is one of the best offensive players in the league. While he draws a tough matchup on paper against a solid Devils team, the circumstances are favorable for him to produce. The Devils were in action on the road last season and had to travel late, making fatigue a potential issue. They also are without starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom and backup Jake Allen was given the nod Tuesday night. That means they’ll draw third string netminder Nico Daws, who owns a sub .900 save percentage in his NHL career. Minnesota’s team total of 2.5 goals is juiced to the over. We’re likely to see a few goals from them and Kaprizov is the straw that stirs the drink.

Sabres LW Zach Benson over 1.5 shots on goal (-168 at FanDuel)
Benson missed the first few games of the season due to injury. He’s been productive since joining the lineup, recording multiple shots in all three games while seeing his shot attempt output – and total ice time – increase in each contest. He’s averaged 4.7 attempts per game and generated at least three each night. That’s noteworthy as Benson’s an accurate shooter who doesn’t need a ton of volume to get shots on target. Last season he recorded multiple shots in 86% of his games when attempting three shots or more, which is the floor we’ve seen and nearly two below his season average.

Red Wings LW Lucas Raymond over 0.5 points (-170 at FanDuel)
Raymond averaged just under a point per game in 2024-25 and has picked up where he left off in the early going, producing five points through four appearances this season. The good times should continue against the Sabres on Wednesday night. They rank bottom-5 in shot suppression and don’t have a high-end goaltender. Raymond has also feasted on the Sabres for years, hitting the scoresheet in nine consecutive head-to-head meetings.

Canadiens D Lane Hutson over 0.5 assists (-125 at DraftKings)
There aren’t many better playmaking defensemen than Hutson. He has piled up 64 assists over his past 89 games, tying him with Quinn Hughes for 2nd among blueliners in helpers since the beginning of last season. He has picked up an assist in nearly 70% of Montreal’s wins dating back to his rookie campaign. That’s noteworthy as the Flames are giving up nearly four goals per night and have just one win through seven games. Montreal is favored here – rightfully so – and Hutson’s likely to get in on the fun if they have any sort of success.

Canadiens D Lane Hutson under 1.5 shots on goal (-169 at FanDuel)
Hutson refuses to shoot the puck. He averaged just 1.1 shots per game as a rookie while generating 3.7 attempts per night. This led to a putrid 29% clear rate on a 1.5 shot line. He has actually shot even more sparingly this season, averaging exactly three attempts through seven games. He generated only two in more than half of those games, giving him no wiggle room to have a shot blocked or miss the target. Hutson generated just two shots spanning two meetings with the Flames a year ago. Expect the volume to be low once again.

3. NFL Analysis

Comparing Remaining Strength of Schedule With Season Win Totals

As we researched the Chiefs remaining strength of schedule for today’s Leading Off, it got us thinking: What if we compare win totals from DraftKings with Tankathon’s strength of schedule ratings to see if there are disconnects?

Here are the 10 teams with the least difficult remaining strength of schedule (from easiest to toughest), along with the worst opponents they have left:

1. Patriots (5-2) — 10.5 wins (-145 over, +120 under): MIA, BAL, NYG, CLE, CIN, NYJ (2)

2. Bengals (3-4) — 7.5 wins (+100 over, -120 under): NYJ, MIA, BAL (2), ARI, CLE

3. Jaguars (4-3) — 9.5 wins (+100 over, -120 under): NYJ, TEN (2), LV, ARIZ, HOU

4. Jets (0-7) — 3.5 wins (+115 over, -135 under): NO, MIA, BAL, CLE, CIN, ATL

5. Browns (2-5) — 5.5 wins (-180 over, +150 under): NYJ, TEN, BAL, LV, CIN

6. Dolphins (1-6) — 4.5 wins (+115 over, -135 under): NYJ, NO, BAL, CIN, WAS, ATL

7. Buccaneers (5-2) — 11.5 wins (+125 over, -150 under): NO (2), MIA, ARI, ATL, CAR (2)

8. Falcons (3-3) — 9.5 wins (+130 over, -155 under): NYJ, NO (2), MIA, ARI, CAR

9. Saints (1-6) — 4.5 wins (+105 over, -125 under): NYJ, TEN, MIA, ATL (2), CAR (2)

10. Ravens (1-5) — 8.5 wins (+100 over, -120 under): NYJ, MIA, CLE, CIN (2), MIN

4. Public Money

Where Bettors Are Putting Their Money in All 12 NBA Day 2 Matchups

NBA

• Nets (+5, -110) vs. Hornets (-5, -110): 69% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Charlotte

• Cavaliers (-1.5, -105) vs. Knicks (+1.5, -115): 55% of the money and bets are with Cleveland

• Heat (+8, -105) vs. Magic (-8, -115): 59% of the money is with Orlando but 55% of the bets are with Miami

• 76ers (+2, -108) vs. Celtics (-2, -112): 75% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Boston

• Toronto (+5.5, -110) vs. Hawks (-5.5, -110): 58% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Toronto

• Wizards (+9.5, -108) vs. Bucks (-9.5, -112): 82% of the money and 75% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Pistons (-4, -106) vs. Bulls (+4, -114): 63% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Detroit

• Pelicans (+4.5, -114) vs. Grizzlies (-4.5, -106): 68% of the money and 59% of the bets are with New Orleans

• Clippers (-10.5, -106) vs. Jazz (+10.5, -114): 82% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Spurs (+2, -106) vs. Mavericks (-2, -114): 66% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Dallas

• Timberwolves (-4, -112) vs. Trail Blazers (+4, -108): 89% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Minnesota

• Kings (+4, -110) vs. Suns (-4, -110): 59% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Sacramento

NHL

• Wild (+114) vs. Devils (-135): 74% of the money and 78% of the bets are with New Jersey

• Red Wings (-108) vs. Sabres (-112): 65% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Detroit

• Canadiens (-125) vs. Flames (+105): 55% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Montreal

CFB

• Middle Tennessee (+9.5, -110) vs. Delaware (-9.5, -110): 72% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Delaware

• Missouri State (-110) vs. New Mexico State (-110): 66% of the money and 60% of the bets are with New Mexico State

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said “I don't respect my profession” in response to the NCAA allowing G-Leaguers to regain college eligibility.

• The Jets owner doesn’t seem to have confidence in starting quarterback Justin Fields, who is expected to be benched and replaced by Tyrod Taylor.

• How the Dodgers pitching staff figured things out just in time.

• Sean Payton and Russell Wilson’s relationship isn’t getting any better.

• The La Liga game in Miami, a matchup between Barcelona and Villarreal scheduled for December 20th, has been called off.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Real Madrid vs. Juventus in Champions League on Paramount+

• 7pm: Cavaliers vs. Knicks on ESPN

• 7:30pm: Red Wings vs. Sabres on TNT

• 9:30pm: Spurs vs. Mavericks on ESPN