In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The upcoming WNBA deadline

2. Bets to Watch: What to look for in Game 5 of the World Series

3. NFL Fantasy: Five players to start and five (or maybe seven…) to sit in Week 9

4. Public Money: The NFL lines with 65% of the early money with one team

5. Overtime: The NBA is starting the season with a record-setting scoring pace

1. Leading Off

The clock is ticking on the WNBA. Players and the league have until Friday to agree on a new contract, and both sides remain far apart on the biggest issues. After the league's best-ever season by the numbers, the WNBA should be doing everything possible to avoid slowing momentum and fan interest. But there’s been little progress.

Taking a step back, this year was historic: More than three million fans attended WNBA games for the first time in league history. TV viewership hit a record too, with regular season games averaging 1.3 million viewers on ESPN. The season opener between Indiana and Chicago drew 2.7 million viewers, the most-watched regular season game in decades.

The league's success helped it land a massive new TV deal worth $2.2 billion over 11 years. That contract kicks in next season and will bring in about $200 million per year, which is four times more than the current deal. Players want a bigger share of that money and say their salaries don't match the league's growth. Right now, the top salary is $249,244 per year while the minimum is $66,079.

On Tuesday, a players union official made it clear that Friday's deadline won't be met. "We have worked hard to be able to say on Friday, we did it. Unfortunately, that's not going to happen," Erin D. Drake, senior advisor and legal counsel for the WNBPA, said on The Athletic's women's basketball podcast. ESPN reported yesterday that the league has offered players a 30-day extension to continue negotiating and avoid a work stoppage.

But if talks break down completely, the league could see its first lockout ever. That would freeze everything from free agency to the draft until a new deal gets done. With the women's college basketball season tipping off Monday featuring a top-25 matchup between No. 16 Baylor and No. 7 Duke from Paris, expect the conversation about WNBA players' value to grow even louder.

—Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Smith Knocked 9 Singles Over Past 8 Games, Including 1 vs. Toronto Starter Yesavage

By Todd Cordell

Dodgers SS Mookie Betts over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-122 at DraftKings)
Betts was able to heat up in a big way down the stretch, particularly when playing on home soil. He has cleared this line in 14 of his past 20 home games, averaging 2.8 H+R+R in doing so. He’s failed to record multiple H+R+R in three straight games but is in a good spot to get back on track. Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage has allowed more hits and power to right-handed bats like Betts. When he exits the game, Betts can also look forward to seeing a bullpen he owns a .265 average and .231 ISO against.

Dodgers C Will Smith over 0.5 singles (+124 at DraftKings)
This line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Will Smith posted a .309 average vs. right-handed pitching this season and recorded a single in more games than not. He’s also red-hot at the dish, having hit nine singles over his past eight contests. After a zero yesterday, he gets to face a righty who has performed worse vs. bats of his handedness. Smith also got to see 11 pitches from Yesavage in his previous start, and took one for a single, so he has a better idea of what he’s facing.

Blue Jays C Alejandro Kirk over 0.5 singles (+127 at DraftKings)
Kirk piled up the singles all year long. Although he is having one of the best power-hitting postseasons we’ve seen from a catcher, he is still mixing in plenty of one-basers. Kirk has hit five singles over his past six games. He posted a .276 average against left-handed pitchers this year and all but 10 of those hits were singles. He also has a shockingly good track record against Dodgers starter Blake Snell, hitting safely in five of seven at bats with a pair of walks to boot. This is a really strong price for someone who hits so many singles and has proven he can handle this difficult matchup.

NBA

Kings G Zach LaVine over 27.5 points + rebounds + assists (-113 at DraftKings)
LaVine has been very productive out of the gate for the Kings. He has cleared this line in all four games he’s played, averaging 33.3 PRA in doing so. The Kings have put a massive workload on his plate, giving him nearly 37 minutes per game and no fewer than 34. LaVine has consistently soared over this number when playing big minutes. Last season he went over 71% of the time when given at least 34 minutes of floor time, his lowest total this season. The Bulls have impressed out of the gate but LaVine plays so many minutes it might not matter. Not to mention, he’ll likely have extra juice going up against his former team.

Celtics G Jaylen Brown over 1.5 three pointers (-168 at DraftKings)
Brown has cleared this line in three of four games this season, only failing to do so in a blowout win against New Orleans in which he also got into serious foul trouble. That was the only game Brown attempted fewer than four 3s. Brown recorded multiple 3s in 68% of his appearances when jacking 4+ 3s last season, which appears to be the floor in his current role. The Cavaliers ranked bottom-10 in defending the 3 vs. Brown’s position last year and that’s the case again in the early going this season. 

Magic F Paolo Banchero over 6.5 rebounds (-141 at DraftKings)
Banchero has piled up the boards thus far, averaging 8.5 through four games. He averaged 7.6 and posted a 60% over rate last season and that was while playing further away from the basket on an average possession than he is right now. The Pistons gave up the 10th most rebounds to power forwards last year and have given up the 4th most thus far. With Banchero playing 35+ minutes per night, and sticking closer to the hoop, the opportunities should be plentiful in this one.

Pelicans F Zion Williamson over 1.5 steals + blocks (-157 at DraftKings)
This line is juiced but not as much as it should be. Zion recorded multiple steals+blocks in 73% of his games last year and has upped his outputs this season, recording eight through just two games. Williamson has talked a lot about how his improved strength and conditioning, which should only help him showcase his athleticism and get more involved. If he’s good to go, he’s likely to clear this total with room to spare.

NHL

Blue Jackets C Adam Fantilli over 0.5 points (+114 at FanDuel)
Fantilli was born near Toronto and always gets up for games against the Maple Leafs. He has generated shots at a higher rate against Toronto, clearing his shot line in all three head-to-head meetings last season. That translated to plenty of success on the scoreboard, with Fantilli potting a hat trick in one of his visits to Toronto. The Maple Leafs rank 22nd in 5-on-5 shot share and 27th in goals against so they are a defense that can be had. Playing on the road with backup netminder Cayden Primeau between the pipes, Fantilli and the Blue Jackets should have a productive night whether they win or lose.

Blue Jackets C Kent Johnson over 1.5 shots on goal (-144 at FanDuel)
Johnson is enjoying a nice shooting start to the campaign. He has cleared this line in seven of nine games, attempting at least three shots in each. Last year he posted a 70% success rate when generating 3+ attempts so these results appear sticky. Johnson went over this number in three of four at home, only failing against a very good New Jersey Devils team off to an 8-2 start to the season. The Maple Leafs are not defending overly well and have conceded 28+ shots in six of their last seven. The volume should continue to be there for Johnson.

Maple Leafs RW William Nylander under 2.5 shots on goal (-120 at FanDuel)
For whatever reason, Nylander just isn’t shooting the puck this season. He is averaging 1.6 shots on 3.7 attempts and posting nowhere close to the kind of volume we’ve come accustomed to seeing. He attempted 6+ shots in half his games last season but has reached that mark only once this year. That came the very next game after head coach Craig Berube called him out and said he wanted Nylander to shoot more. Nylander has otherwise attempted five shots or fewer each time out. Last year he cleared his shot total in just 31% of his games (and 21% on the road) when attempting five shots or less. If that’s the new norm, there’s plenty of value at this price.

3. NFL Fantasy Insights

Bengals NFL-Worst Run Defense Means Opportunities for Swift, Texans Held 4 Straight QBs to Under 200 Yards

By Craig Williams

⬆️ D'Andre Swift, RB, Bears
The Bengals have been torched by running backs this season, including Jets running back Isaiah Davis, who totaled 109 scrimmage yards … behind teammate Breece Hall, who had 147 rushing-plus-receiving yards and accounted for three touchdowns. Swift’s dual-threat ability means he’ll be able to attack the Bengals’ porous run defenses from multiple angles. He’s received 20-plus opportunities in three games this season, and this is another spot in which the Bears can lean on him.

⬆️ Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals
If there’s one defense that Kyler Murray and Harrison Jr. should be able to exploit, it’s the Cowboys, who have surrendered three 100-yard performances and 15 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Harrison’s volume has been frustrating as the Cardinals can’t seem to fully unlock him, but several of his metrics have improved in Year 2, and we like his prospects against a porous pass defense.

⬆️ Nico Collins, WR, Texans
Be sure to double-check Collins’ status after he missed last week with a concussion, but he’s trending toward playing, and he’ll line up against a Patrick Surtain-less Broncos secondary. Collins has been held to four catches in each of the past three contests, but this is a spot where he may be able to break through for a bigger performance.

⬆️ Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders
Fantasy managers need to track Bowers’ status this week, but if we’re operating under the presumption that he’s going to be active, we can look at him as an immediate plug-and-play fantasy option. The Raiders have been a mess this season, and much of that is due to the absence and ineffectiveness (due to injury) of Bowers. Once he returns to the lineup, we expect him to receive a lot of work.

⬆️ Colston Loveland, TE, Bears
We’re looking at the Bears again and tight end Colston Loveland. The rookie out of Michigan got off to a slow start this season, but his usage has ramped up in recent games — he’s played 63.3% of offensive snaps the past three weeks vs. 41.2% over his first three contests. Loveland drew nine targets over his past two games, and this is a potential breakout spot.

⬇️ Jordan Mason/Aaron Jones Sr., RB, Vikings
We’re not necessarily overreacting to last week’s result in which Mason and Jones combined for 18 yards on nine carries, but we’re certainly not bullish on this backfield in the short-term. The Lions have been stingy against opposing backfields, especially over their past three in which they’ve held teams to below 80 yards rushing per game. Given the tough opponent and the division of touches, we’re fading the Vikings running back duo until further notice.

⬇️ Bo Nix, QB, Broncos
The Texans haven’t enjoyed the most impressive season overall, but that has nothing to do with their defense. They’ve held the past four quarterbacks below 200 yards passing, and they’ve been especially stingy against the pass at home. And it will come as no surprise that a second-year quarterback has struggled on the road compared to at home, so we’re anticipating a challenging day for Nix and the Broncos.

⬇️ Matthew Golden, WR, Packers
It’s been a slow ascent for Golden, who has only drawn a 13% share of the targets so far in his rookie season. And while the Panthers haven’t been airtight against opposing receivers, they’ve been surprisingly stingy. That’s thanks to the presence of top corner Jaycee Horn, who figures to continue making Golden’s rookie season a slow burn. 

⬇️ CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens, WR, Cowboys
We’re not suggesting both Lamb and Pickens are in for modest performances, but we’re acknowledging the heightened risk of a quiet night for one of the pair. The Cardinals pulled off the rare feat of holding breakout Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba somewhat in check in their Week 4 matchup, and they may be able to do enough to slow down one member of the Cowboys’ dynamic receiving duo.

⬇️ Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Commanders
We’ll be especially bearish on “Bill” Merritt getting going if Marcus Mariota is under center again for the Commanders. Not only does a Mariota-led offense pack significantly less punch than it does with Jayden Daniels (naturally), but the Seahawks feature the seventh best scoring defense, and they’ve only allowed 57 rushing yards per game over their past three.

4. Public Money

Blue Jays Turn to Rookie Starter Yesavage as Bettors are Split on World Series Game 5

MLB

• Blue Jays (Yesavage 2-1, 4.26) vs. Dodgers (Snell 3-1, 2.42): Game 5 in Los Angeles

  • Spread — Dodgers (-1.5, +102), Blue Jays (+1.5, -122): 70% of the money and 63% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • Moneyline — Dodgers -205, Blue Jays +172: 51% of the money is with Toronto but 51% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • Total (8.0) — Over -110, Under -110: 88% of the money and 81% of the bets are on the over

NBA

• Rockets (-5.5, -110) vs. Raptors (+5.5, -110): 83% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Houston

• Cavaliers (-3.5, -110) vs. Celtics (+3.5, -110): 87% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Cleveland

• Hawks (-7.5, -115) vs. Nets (+7.5, -105): 62% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Kings (+5, -110) vs. Bulls (-5, -110): 53% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Sacramento

• Indiana (+7, -112) vs. Mavericks (-7, -108): 62% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Indiana

• Lakers (+7, -108) vs. Timberwolves (-7, -112): 62% of money and 67% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Grizzlies (-2, -110) vs. Suns (+2, -110): 83% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Memphis

NFL

• Ravens (-7.5, -115) vs. Dolphins (+7.5, -105): 91% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Baltimore

• Falcons (+5.5, -102) vs. Patriots (-5.5, -120): 91% of the money and 85% of the bets are with New England

• Panthers (+13.5, -104) vs. Packers (-13.5, -118) 86% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Green Bay

• Chargers (-9.5, -115) vs. Titans (+9.5, -105): 80% of the money and 86% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• 49ers (-2.5, -120) vs. Giants (+2.5, -102): 92% of the money and 79% of the bets are with San Francisco

• Colts (-3, -115) vs. Steelers (+3, -105): 95% of the money and 85% of the bets are with Indianapolis

• Vikings (+8.5, -105) vs. Lions (-8.5, -115): 93% of the money and 89% of the bets are with Detroit

• Jaguars (-3, -115) vs. Raiders (+3, -105): 90% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Jacksonville

• Saints (+14.5, -115) vs. Rams (-14.5, -105): 86% of the money and 80% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Seahawks (-3.5, +100) vs. Commanders (+3.5, -122): 90% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Seattle

• Cardinals (+3, -122) vs. Cowboys (-3, +100): 89% of the money and bets are with Dallas

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will be back under center on Thursday night against the Dolphins. At 2-5, he said “every game is going to be like a win-or-go home game” for Baltimore. In other quarterback news, Saints rookie Tyler Shough will start against the Rams, as New Orleans decided to bench Spencer Rattler.

• There were 16 40-point games in the first week of the NBA season, setting a league record. Lakers guards Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, and 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey, have two 40+ point games a piece. Offense is up across the board at 236.6 points per game, a 7.6% increase compared to early games last year, according to the Associated Press.

• CBS Sports runs through the five coaches on the hot seat in the NFL, with the 2-6 Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel holding down the top spot. Miami has the 6th-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL according to Tankathon, so McDaniel (30-29 overall) could be gone if he can’t orchestrate another turnaround for the Dolphins.

• Red Sox closer Aroldis Chapman, who had 32 saves, 4 holds and just 2 blown saves last season, ripped the front office of his former team, the Yankees, saying, “If I were told that I was being traded to New York, I'd pack my things and go home.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 4pm: Newcastle vs. Tottenham in Carabao Cup action on Paramount+

• 7pm: Cavaliers vs. Celtics on ESPN

• 7:30pm: Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets on NHL Network

• 8pm: Blue Jays vs. Dodgers for Game 5 on FOX

• 8pm: USWNT vs. New Zealand in an international friendly on TNT

• 9:30pm: Lakers vs. Timberwolves on ESPN

• 10:30pm: LAFC vs. Austin FC on Apple TV