Our 10 Bets to Watch for the Last Regular Season College Football Saturday of the Season

We also look at where bettors have money in today’s rivalry games and NBA matchups

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Death Valley is a coaching death trap

2. Top 10: Best NFL Draft prospects as the college football regular season ends

3. Game of the Day: Ohio State looks to end four-game losing streak to Michigan

4. By the Numbers: Alabama can all-but punch ticket to playoff with rivalry game win over Auburn

5. Overtime: A trio of quarterbacks are set to play tomorrow

1. Leading Off

Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has led his team to an 11-1 record and an almost certain spot in the College Football Playoff. If No. 10 Alabama is upset by Auburn today, the Rebels would go to the SEC Championship game. That success has led some of the biggest-budget schools in college football to try and lure Kiffin away from Oxford. Ole Miss got grumpy about the situation and decided to force Kiffin into giving administrators his decision by this morning, a move that wasn’t a dealbreaker but didn’t help the school’s cause in keeping its star coach.

Kiffin had already said Ole Miss will match the salary any other university can offer. So why would he leave? There are two logical reasons: More guaranteed money or a better chance to win a national championship. But it would be a mistake for Kiffin to abandon what has become an phenomenal spot for him — especially with Florida reportedly out of the conversation (though that is almost certainly be because they got wind Kiffin isn’t interested, not the other way around).

The main reason Kiffin should stay at Ole Miss is because LSU is the premier opening left. LSU fired Ed Orgeron two seasons after he won a national championship. The school just fired Brian Kelly with a 5-3 record in just his fourth season, and he was 34-14 overall. The Governor of Louisiana is involved in athletic department decisions. The situation is a mess, and a new coach, no matter how good, won’t fix it.

If the Tigers offer Kiffin $100 million in guaranteed money and he wants to take care of his family for generations, the move makes sense. If this is about his coaching career, heading to LSU more than likely won’t pan out. Kiffin has earned the right to make this decision. The college football carousel is waiting on him.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Top 10

Best Prospects for Next Year’s NFL Draft as College Football Regular Season Ends

It’s the last regular season college football Saturday of the year, so we’re looking at the top 10 NFL Draft prospects. This doesn’t take into account who will be picking, but as you’ll see, we believe teams are going to trade up to take quarterbacks if the draft order doesn’t shake out that way based on records.

1. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza: Even though the Hoosiers quarterback passed for 3,000+ yards last year, nobody knew about it because he was playing for Cal. He has been outstanding (32 TDs, 5 INTs), but his chances at being the No. 1 pick depend on how he plays in a likely matchup against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.

2. Oregon QB Dante Moore: The Ducks quarterback got off to a rocky start at UCLA then waited behind Dillon Gabriel last season after transferring to Oregon. But he’s getting looks for the top pick now that he got a shot. Moore is completing nearly 73% of his passes and has thrown for nearly 2,500 yards.

3. Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson: The junior’s production fell behind last year’s stellar season, but he’s still the top wide receiver available and has plenty of upside. Tyson has eight touchdowns and is averaging 11.7 yards per catch.

4. Miami OT Francis Mauigoa: The best offensive lineman in the draft should be a top-5 pick any year. The 6-foot-6, 315-pound junior from American Samoa will be a very popular pick for the quarterback who gets him.

5. Ohio State LB Arvell Reese: Already at 6.5 sacks and 30 solo tackles, Reese is a game-changer on defense and can make a difference on any team in the NFL.

6. Alabama QB Ty Simpson: Another quarterback who finally got a chance to shine and is taking advantage, Simpson has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards, is completing almost 67% of his passes and has 22 touchdowns to just four interceptions.

7. Miami Edge Rueben Bain Jr.: A very consistent presence on Miami’s defensive line, Bain Jr.’s freshman season was still his best. But he has some of the best potential in the entire draft.

8. Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: He might actually be the best player in the draft, but NFL teams see running backs as expendable so he could fall a bit (outside of the top 10 would be ridiculous, though). Love has already rushed for over 1,300 yards and matched last season with 17 touchdowns.

9. Ohio State S Caleb Downs: After starting his career at Alabama, Downs has become one of the premier defensive backs in the nation at Ohio State. If he somehow drops out of the top 10, the team will be getting a steal.

10. Auburn Edge Keldric Faulk: The 6-foot-6, 285-pound junior hasn’t lived up to his sophomore season, but that year alone is enough to draft him. This year hasn’t been too shabby (26 tackles, 2 sacks), and he’s built for the NFL. 

3. Game of the Day

No. 1 Ohio State Looks to Beat Michigan for 1st Time Since 2019, Secure Big Ten Title Game Spot

Ohio State was ranked No. 2 when it played Michigan each of the past four years and lost each time. The last time the Buckeyes were ranked 1st in this matchup was also the last time they won in Ann Arbor, a 56-27 blowout against No. 13 Michigan. Ohio State would like nothing more than a similar outcome today to exorcise the Michigan demons and keep steamrolling toward a repeat national championship. The Buckeyes give up 206.6 yards per game, good for best in the nation, while the Wolverines’ sophomore running back Jordan Marshall has rushed for 110+ in four straight games, scored at least one touchdown in each.

No. 1 Ohio State (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 15 Michigan (9-2, 7-1 Big Ten)
12pm on FOX

The Odds

• Spread: Ohio State (-10.5, +100), Michigan (+10.5, -122)

  • 66% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Ohio State

  • ATS — OSU: 9-2, UM: 4-7

• Moneyline: Ohio State -390, Michigan +310

• Total (43.4): Over -115, Under -105

  • OSU: 4-7, UM: 6-5

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Ohio State QB Julian Sayin — Passing Yards: 237.5 (157, 184, 303)

• Michigan QB Bryce Underwood — Passing Yards: 154.5 (215, 280, 145), Rush Yards: 16.5 (20, 30, 44)

• Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith — Receiving Yards: 80.5 (40, 137, 123), Anytime TD: -110 (0, 1, 2)

• Michigan WR Andrew Marsh — Receiving Yards: 52.5 (76, 189, 25)

• Ohio State RB Bo Jackson — Rush Yards: 78.5 (110, 112, 75), Anytime TD: -140 (2, 1, 0)

• Michigan RB Jordan Marshall — Rush Yards: 83.5 (142, 185, 110), Anytime TD: +110 (2, 3, 1)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Bettors Backing No. 10 Alabama to Handle Rival Auburn, Head to SEC Championship

CFB

• No. 5 Texas Tech (-23.5, -110) vs. West Virginia (+23.5, -110): 83% of the money and 70% of the points are with the Red Raiders. ATS — TTU: 10-1, WVU: 7-4

• UCF (+17.5, -110) vs. No. 11 BYU (-17.5, -110): 89% of the money and 84% of the bets are with the Cougars. ATS — UCF: 4-7, BYU: 8-3

• No. 14 Vanderbilt (+2.5, +100) vs. No. 19 Tennessee (-2.5, -122): 76% of the money and 63% of the bets are with the Volunteers. ATS — VAN: 9-2, UT: 5-6

• LSU (+10.5, -110) vs. No. 8 Oklahoma (-10.5, -110): 83% of the money and 75% of the bets are with the Sooners. ATS — LSU: 3-8, OU: 7-4

• UCLA (+21.5, -110) vs. No. 17 USC (-21.5, -110): 77% of the money and 60% of the bets are with the Trojans. ATS — UCLA: 3-8, USC: 5-6

• No. 10 Alabama (-5.5, -114) vs. Auburn (+5.5, -106): 87% of the money and 84% of the bets are with the Crimson Tide. ATS — ALA: 7-4, AUB: 4-7

• No. 9 Notre Dame (-32.5, -105) vs. Stanford (+32.5, -115): 75% of the money and 70% of the bets are with the Fighting Irish. ATS — ND: 6-5, STAN: 4-7

NBA

• Celtics (+7, -108) vs. Timberwolves (-7, -112): 68% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Boston

  • Jaylen Brown — Points: 28.5 (33, 35, 26), Reb: 5.5 (10, 4, 8), Ast: 4.5 (5, 8, 4)

  • Anthony Edwards — Points: 27.5 (31, 43, 41), Reb: 5.5 (8, 7, 5), Ast: 4.5 (5, 4, 4)

• Bulls (-4, -110) vs. Pacers (+4, -110): 58% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Indiana

  • Josh Giddey — Points: 19.5 (25, 21, 18), Reb: 8.5 (11, 7, 12), Ast: 8.5 (9, 6, 11)

  • Pascal Siakam — Points: 24.5 (24, 11, 24), Reb: 7.5 (11, 4, 8)

• Pistons (+3.5, -112) vs. Heat (-3.5, -108): 73% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Detroit

  • Cade Cunningham — Points: 28.5 (39, 42, 24), Reb: 6.5 (13, 8, 11), Ast: 9.5 (11, 5, 6)

  • Tyler Herro — Points: 21.5 (29, 24), Reb: 4.5 (5, 7), Ast: 4.5 (7, 0)

• Nets (+11.5, -110) vs. Bucks (-11.5, -110): 58% of the money and 56% of the bets are with Milwaukee

  • Nic Claxton — Points: 13.5 (12, 8, 10), Reb: 8.5 (6, 4, 11), Ast: 3.5 (1, 1, 3)

  • Ryan Rollins — Points: 16.5 (13, 26, 10), Ast: 6.5 (6, 5, 7)

• Pelicans (+8, -108) vs. Warriors (-8, -112): 74% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Golden State

  • Zion Williamson — Points: 21.5 (17, 29, 22), Reb: 5.5 (5, 1, 3), Ast: 3.5 (4, 2, 2)

  • Jimmy Butler — Points: 20.5 (21, 18, 20), Reb: 5.5 (5, 6, 8), Ast: 5.5 (5, 7, 5)

5. Overtime

In the News 

• The Bears might be for real, as they defeated the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles 24-15 on the road on Black Friday to improve to 9-3. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has gone just 4-4 after a 4-0 start.

• Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is set to play against the Bills, according to coach Mike Tomlin. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is “trending to play,” according to coach Todd Bowles. And Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has cleared concussion protocol and will start against the Colts, according to coach DeMeco Ryans.

• San Diego FC is in the Western Conference final in its first season in MLS after earning the No. 1 seed and will face the 2nd-seeded Vancouver Whitecaps. In the Eastern Conference, Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami’s squad, which finished third, takes on New York City FC, the No. 5 seed.

• Stanford has hired former Cardinal quarterback Tavita Pritchard to be its next head coach. Pritchard is currently the Commanders quarterbacks coach and was a senior at Stanford when Stanford general manager and former quarterback Andrew Luck was a freshman at the school.

Quotable

“You tell me. That team is undefeated. No. 3 in the country, and a lot of the pundits out there think they are the No. 1 team in the country. We just beat them by 10.” — Texas coach Steve Sarkisian on if his Longhorns should make the College Football Playoff after beating No. 3 Texas A&M.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 10am: Brentford vs. Burnley on USA (followed by Everton vs. Newcastle)

• 12pm: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 15 Michigan [CFB] on FOX

• 2pm: Lightning vs. Rangers on NHL Network

• 3:30pm: No. 6 Oregon vs. Washington [CFB] on CBS (or LSU vs. No. 8 Oklahoma [CFB] on ABC)

• 5pm: Celtics vs. Timberwolves on NBA TV (followed by Pelicans vs. Warriors at 8:30pm)

• 6pm: Inter Miami vs. New York City FC in the MLS Eastern Conference final on Apple TV (followed by San Diego FC vs. Whitecaps in the Western Conference final at 9pm)

• 7:30pm: No. 19 Alabama vs. Auburn [CFB] on ABC