Packers (-14.5) and Saints Face the Cold on Monday Night Football

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Who’s the favorite to win the CFP now?

• NFL: Cold and windy weather could affect Monday Night Football

• NBA: Wemby vs. Embiid might be a big test for the young Spurs star

• NBA: Nikola Jokic is putting up monster numbers on the second night of back-to-backs

• NFL: Saints vs. Packers key player projections

• Overtime: Tyreek Hill says there’s a reason for his drops

It’s been a dramatic Week 16 in the NFL; we’ll say more tomorrow after Monday Night Football.

For now, let’s take an updated look at where the remaining eight teams in the College Football Playoff stand in terms of championship odds:

• Texas (+330 DraftKings, +310 FanDuel)

• Ohio State (+360 DraftKings, +330 FanDuel)

• Oregon (+425 DraftKings, +480 FanDuel)

• Penn State (+500 DraftKings and FanDuel)

• Georgia (+550 DraftKings, +480 FanDuel)

• Notre Dame (+550 DraftKings, +700 FanDuel)

• Arizona State (+7000 DraftKings, +6500 FanDuel)

• Boise State (+7000 DraftKings, +8500 FanDuel)

In today’s newsletter, Chris covers Monday Night Football, and Craig and Jack have insights on the NBA slate.

— Patrick Dorsey

Freezing Weather Could Affect Saints-Packers on Monday Night Football

By Chris Farley

Packers -14.5 (-102 at FanDuel)

We respect the Saints' efforts to prepare for this contest (apparently the quarterbacks studied plays in a freezer), but we don't think it'll make much of a difference. This is a pristine spot for the Packers, at home and on what's bound to be a cold, windy day at Lambeau Field. They're also one of the NFL's best rushing offenses (4.2 yards per carry, 6th overall), anchored by a motivated Josh Jacobs (1,147 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns) against one of the NFL's worst rush defenses (the Saints are 31st, permitting 4.9 yards per carry). Add rookie Spencer Rattler throwing for New Orleans, and it doesn’t look good for the Saints.

Saints vs. Packers under 42.5 (-105 at FanDuel and Bookmaker)

While the snow should clear up by kickoff, freezing temperatures and wind will have an effect. Gusts from 15-20 mph are possible, on a field where the hometown Packers have allowed just 17 points per game in their past five contests. The Packers' pass defense has also gotten better as the season has gone on, now a top-six unit in sack percentage (7.97%) and formidable against the run (4.2 yards per carry allowed, 6th). The Pack should be able to slow this game down and play ball control.

Josh Jacobs 2+ touchdowns (+190 at DraftKings)

Look at any standard Jacobs prop line tonight and you'll see that the market is expecting a big game for the bruising back. Jacobs has been a punishing, perfect addition to Matt LaFleur's offense, a coach who prefers to run the ball (the Packers are 3rd in rush play percentage). The conditions will warrant an obvious game plan against a vulnerable Saints defensive line, and while the visitors likely know what's coming, it might not matter. Jacobs has 12 touchdowns this season, and mostly against much better defenses.

Spencer Rattler over 172.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Last week, the rookie showed why many thought he could be a starter in the NFL, willing his team to a productive second half and nearly beating the Commanders, who led 17-0. Rattler quickly stacked up 135 yards in just two quarters in Week 15. Additionally, the young thrower can neutralize a formidable Green Bay pass rush with his athletic ability, as we saw last week (he took zero sacks against Washington), and Green Bay certainly has some flaws in their secondary (they allow a 67.53 completion percentage, 24th overall). Not to mention, Rattler figures to be playing catch-up most of the game.

Kendre Miller over 12.5 rushing attempts (-114 at FanDuel)

We're not sure why markets have decided to make this number so low. Kendre Miller will be suiting up in just his fifth game this season, but he has a much bigger role than before. With Alvin Kamara out, Miller will be New Orleans' featured back on Monday night, and odds are the Saints have similar plans to the Packers in how they'll approach this game. Regardless of whether the Saints are playing catch-up, Miller will be their starter in a cold, windy game with a rookie quarterback behind center. The carries should be there.

Spencer Rattler over 18.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

As a nice hedge to our Kendre Miller position (although both could easily hit), this is a wager we simply must take. Rattler showed off his elusiveness last week against Washington, avoiding sacks and pushing the ball downfield. There's a high probability that fewer receivers will be open on Monday, a result of the conditions and a pass defense that plays better at home. Below-average passing attacks (IND, HOU, SF) struggled at Lambeau Field, and the athletic Rattler will undoubtedly look for every opportunity he can to gain first downs and propel the Saints' offense.

Matchup vs. Joel Embiid Might Be Big Opportunity for Victor Wembanyama

By Craig Williams

Jazz vs. Cavs over 231.5 (-115 at BetMGM) 

The Cavs and Jazz are both entering tonight’s contest on modest win streaks — the Cavs have won four straight and the Jazz have won back-to-back games. Both have gone over in six of their past seven. The Cavs, in particular, have been humming offensively, and their 1.24 offensive efficiency over their past three games outpaces their league-leading full-season mark (1.18). Finally, the Cavs have been strong defensively all season, but we won’t be surprised if their intensity wanes heading into Christmas Eve.

Magic +10 (-108 at DraftKings)

We’re going to give the Magic some respect in spite of their injuries. They’re 10-2-1 against the spread at home, including 2-1-1 over their past four contests at the Kia Center. They’re still facing a tall task against the Celtics sans key players, including the Wagner brothers, Paolo Banchero and possibly Jalen Suggs (questionable). We expect the Celtics to win, but don’t be surprised if the Magic put up a fight. From the Celtics’ perspective, it’s the final road game before returning to Boston ahead of their Christmas Day contest with the 76ers. It wouldn’t be a shock to see them take their foot off of the pedal defensively and allow the Magic to keep things closer than expected.

Jayson Tatum over 8.5 rebounds (-140 at DraftKings)

We’re taking the conservative option on Tatum’s rebounds here — other books are offering 9.5 at plus-money odds. First of all, we’re acknowledging the theoretical offensive struggles the Magic will experience with so many injuries. As we mentioned, however, this is a spot in which the Celtics’ defense could dip a bit given a return home and prime Christmas spot looming. More than theories though, the Magic attempt among the fewest shots per game, so we’re factoring in the possibility of fewer errant shots for Tatum to corral.  

Spurs +5.5 (-105 at bet365)

The Sixers are playing better basketball of late, but we’re not quite ready to trust them. They’ve won four of their past six, but they’re 3-3 against the spread over that span. And those four wins came against the Banchero-less Magic, Bulls and Hornets twice, so we’re not talking about a gauntlet of top-tier NBA foes. We can’t pretend the Spurs are beating the world, but they’re certainly on a steady rise. A “steady rise” is more of a macro view. Speaking from a micro perspective, they’ve won and covered back-to-back games, and this current road trip is an opportunity for them to continue building upon their improved play.

Victor Wembanyama over 4.5 steals + blocks (+100 at DraftKings)

Wembanyama is on a hot streak in the blocks column, rejecting 10 shots alone against the Trail Blazers his last time out. He’s gone over the number in three straight, and we’re looking for the defensive dominance to continue. There’s one primary intangible factor we’re considering. This is a measuring stick game for Wembanyama, as he has the opportunity to go up against Joel Embiid. And even though Embiid is still rounding into form, this remains a great spot for Wembanyama to deliver a signature performance.

Anthony Edwards over 26.5 points (-105 at BetMGM)

Edwards was born and raised in Atlanta, so tonight serves as a homecoming. He went over 30 points in each of his past two visits to Atlanta, and we like the chances for another big showing in the scoring column. While the Hawks have some impressive individual defenders, they’re mediocre in defensive rating as a team, and they play at the game’s third fastest pace. Edwards should have plenty of opportunities to push his scoring total over the number.

Rockets -6 (-110 at Caesars)

This is a fade against the Hornets as much as it is a play to back the Rockets. The Hornets are 1-9 straight-up and 4-6 against the spread over the past 10 games. They’ve been especially porous of late defensively, evidenced by their 1.16 defensive rating over their past three. The Rockets have not dominated against the number in recent contests, with a 2-3 mark against the spread over their past five. They are 4-1 straight-up though, and in spite of the Hornets’ opening-night win over the Rockets, we’re skeptical about a competitive showing from the hosts.

Nikola Jokic Is Averaging a Whopping 60 Pts + Reb + Ast on 2nd Night of Back-To-Backs

By Jack Dougherty

James Harden over 7.5 assists (-102 at FanDuel)

Harden has gone under this line in six straight games, but this is a great buy-low spot against the Grizzlies. Memphis plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, which creates more possessions and more assist opportunities for opposing teams. Harden has played four games this season against teams that rank fifth or better in pace, and he averaged 10.0 assists per game in those contests. 

Jordan Poole under 19.5 points (-116 at FanDuel)

Poole has averaged 24.7 points over his past three games, but that’s creating some value on this prop against the best defensive team in the NBA. The Thunder rank No. 1 in the NBA in opponent effective field-goal percentage (50.0 percent), opponent 3-point shooting percentage (33.3 percent) and opponent points per game (102.9). Oklahoma City is especially dominant against guards, giving up the fewest points per game to opposing shooting guards (19.7). This is a nightmare matchup for an inefficient shooter. 

Deni Avdija over 11.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

This line doesn’t properly reflect how much volume Avdija has been seeing. The Trail Blazers forward averages 27.8 minutes, 10.5 field-goal attempts and 15.3 points per game over his past 10 contests. He’s cleared this line in 13 of his past 15. Avdija just saw the Mavericks a few weeks ago and put up a season-high 21 points on 7-of-12 shooting and 2 of 4 from beyond the arc. 

Nuggets team total over 117.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Many teams tend to struggle with tired legs on the second night of back-to-backs, but the Nuggets haven’t been one of them. In four back-to-backs this season, Denver has averaged a ridiculous 135.3 points per game in the second leg. The team shot a combined 200 for 359 (55.7 percent) from the field and 57 for 118 (48.3 percent) from 3 in those games, which would be the best shooting marks in the NBA by a wide margin. The Suns are also struggling on the defensive end, giving up at least 118 points in five of their past seven games.

Nikola Jokic over 49.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at DraftKings)

This might come as a surprise, but Jokic is the main reason why Denver has fared so well in back-to-backs this season. The star center averages a whopping 60.0 points + rebounds + assists in the second leg of back-to-backs this year, going over this line in all four. Phoenix gives up the second-most points per game (25.2) and the seventh-most assists per game (4.7) to opposing centers, so Jokic should be able to stuff the stat sheet in this matchup.

Tyrese Haliburton under 16.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

Haliburton isn’t the same scorer he was last year. His points-per-game average has dipped from 20.1 to 17.8, and his 3-pointers attempted per game has dropped from 7.4 to 5.6. The point guard hasn’t needed the same usage, so it will be tough for him to clear this line against Golden State’s strong defensive backcourt. The Warriors give up the fewest points per game (21.3) and the second-fewest made 3s per game (2.8) to opposing point guards.

Saints vs. Packers: Green Bay Looks to Solidify Playoff Spot

Saints (5-9, 2-4 Away) vs. Packers (10-4, 5-2 Home)
Monday, 8:15pm on ESPN

Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• Saints

  • QB Spencer Rattler: 185.6 pass yards, 0.9 pass TD

  • TE Juwan Johnson: 2.9 receptions, 32.0 receiving yards

• Packers

  • QB Jordan Love: 252.1 pass yards, 1.9 pass TD

  • RB Josh Jacobs: 83.2 rush yards, 19.3 receiving yards

  • WR Romeo Doubs: 3.9 receptions, 48.4 receiving yards

In the News 

• Tyreek Hill says his drops are due to a lack of reps with Tua Tagovailoa.

• Both Jalen Hurts and Kenny Pickett picked up injuries in the Eagles’ loss vs. Washington.

• World Series hero Walker Buehler is reportedly leaving the Dodgers for the Red Sox.

• Shohei Ohtani won his 3rd AP Male Athlete of the Year award, one shy of the record.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:30pm: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on ESPN

• 8:15pm: Saints vs. Packers for MNF on ABC/ESPN

• 10:30pm: Nebraska vs. Hawai’i in men’s college basketball on ESPN2

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