Thursday Night Football Bets to Watch + NFL Week 11 Fantasy Insights

We also look at where bettors have money in the NFL, NBA, NHL and men’s college basketball

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Thunder destroy Lakers as dominance continues

2. Bets to Watch: Jets average just 168 yards per game vs. top-20 defenses

3. Fantasy Football: 5 players to start and 5 to sit in Week 11

4. By the Numbers: Patriots and Jets combined for 12 overs, 7 unders

5. Overtime: Could Lamar Jackson miss another game?

1. Leading Off

The Thunder put on a clinic last night, leading the Lakers 70-38 at halftime in a game that felt over before it started. The final score was 121-92, but those halftime numbers tell the real story about just how dominant the defending champions looked.

The Thunder are now 12-1 on the season and remain undefeated at home. This isn't a surprise anymore. Oklahoma City is making the rest of the league look average and the team isn’t even at full strength (Jalen Williams hasn’t played a game yet).

The Lakers couldn't buy a bucket in the second quarter, missing their first 11 shots to start the period. The Thunder took full advantage and piled on 40 points in the quarter alone, turning the game into a 32-point laugher by halftime.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30 points, 9 assists) ran the show for Oklahoma City while the Thunder's defense forced turnover after turnover. The Lakers had 11 giveaways by halftime while the Thunder only had one. Luka Doncic was the only Lakers player in double figures at the break with 11 points as everything went wrong for LA. Cold shooting, sloppy passes and missed free throws combined for an embarrassing first half that had the home crowd roaring.

The Thunder coasted in the second half, so even a 29-point margin made the game seem closer than it was. Oklahoma City looks completely unstoppable so far. They're trying to prove last season was just a start.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Patriots Hold NFL-Best Mark in Opponent Rush Yards per Game (79.2)

By Chris Farley

Jets vs. Patriots under 43 points (-105 at BetOnline)
We think the Jets will be very limited in this game, to say the least. Against defenses that rank in the top-20 or better, their offensive numbers are…

3. Fantasy Football

With Harrison Jr. Out at Least 1 Game, Look for McBride to Pick Up Additional Targets

By Craig Williams

⬆️ Trey McBride, TE
Those playing in daily formats have reason to splurge on McBride. He’s already leading the team in targets, but Marvin Harrison Jr. will miss this week’s contest, freeing up his 20.4% target share. McBride has scored 20-plus half-PPR points twice this season, and he’ll be in prime position to make it a third this week.

⬇️ Chimere Dike, WR
Dike has emerged as a solid spot-starter for managers in deeper leagues and those navigating bye weeks. This is a tough spot to lean on the rookie though. He and the young Titans will face off against a Houston Texans defense that has surrendered the sixth-fewest points to opposing wide receivers.

⬆️ Green Bay D/ST
It might have been better news if Russell Wilson was in line to start for the Giants, but we know that Jameis Winston is among the kings of giveaways. It’s one thing for Jaxson Dart to spark a diminished offense, but we’re less bullish in Winston’s ability to do the same. Look for the Packers, coming into this week with back-to-back losses, to make sure they’re clicking defensively in a game they have to win.

⬆️ DK Metcalf, WR
Metcalf is entering this week’s contest with three single-digit performances over his past four. And the Steelers have struggled as an offensive unit overall, losing three of four — the same three in which Metcalf was quiet. Sunday’s matchup is one the Steelers have to have, and we expect them to get their top receiver involved early and often against a porous Bengals defense.

⬇️ Rico Dowdle, RB
The Saints executed the blueprint to slow down the Panthers — take away their run game and force Bryce Young to beat you. Not only are the Falcons coming into this contest riding a four-game skid, but they were embarrassed 30-0 when they played in Charlotte in Week 3. We expect them to play copycat and load up against the run — especially after giving up nearly 250 rushing yards to Jonathan Taylor in Germany last week.

⬆️ Brock Bowers, TE
We’re riding another top-flight tight end here in Bowers, who will be looking to bounce back from a quiet Thursday night performance against the Broncos. The Cowboys actually rank in the top half of the league in their defense of tight ends, but we expect the Raiders to make a concerted effort to feature Bowers in their passing game after he was limited to one reception in Week 10.

⬇️ Patrick Mahomes, QB
Don’t be surprised if Mahomes delivers back-to-back subpar fantasy performances as he’s visiting the Broncos this week. The time may come when the absence of cornerback Patrick Surtain II reveals a hole for opposing teams to exploit, but they’ve held six starting quarterbacks to single-digit fantasy scoring. We’ll stop short of predicting fewer than 10 points for Mahomes, but he could be in for a relatively light day in a difficult environment.

⬆️ Woody Marks, RB
The rookie out of Southern California could be in store for another solid day against a Titans defense allowing 156.7 rushing yards per game over their past three. Marks played a season-high 60 offensive snaps (80%) and produced 15.1 half-PPR points, his second-best output of the season. He’s averaging 15 opportunities per game over his past six, and he’ll be in position to deliver another strong performance with another healthy workload.

⬇️ Sam Darnold, QB
We could certainly include Matthew Stafford in this spot as well. The Rams are hosting the Seahawks in a highly anticipated NFC West showdown. As well as both teams have played offensively, both are top-five defenses as well. We won’t be surprised if it’s both teams’ defenses who show out on Sunday, contributing to potentially quiet days from both signal-callers.

⬇️ Brian Thomas Jr., WR
This applies to the Jaguars’ wide receiving corps overall, even in the wake of Travis Hunter’s season-ending knee injury. Thomas, in particular, is working his way back from an ankle injury, and he’s struggled to get in sync with quarterback Trevor Lawrence when he is on the field. If Thomas is out again, we’re not excited about the likes of Jakobi Meyers, who has never been a quality fantasy asset, nor Parker Washington, who has an 11.2 catch average on 76 career receptions. Especially not against the Chargers, who have surrendered the second fewest half-PRR points to wide receivers this season.

4. By the Numbers

Bettors Backing 2 NBA Favorites and Sharks Upset in the NHL

NFL

• Jets (+12.5, -104) vs. Patriots (-12.5, -118)

  • 77% of the money and 60% of the bets are with New England

    • NYJ: 5-4, NE: 7-3

  • Over-Under — NYJ: 6-3, NE: 6-4

NBA

• Raptors (+7.5, -110) vs. Cavaliers (-7.5, -110): 75% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Cleveland

  • TOR: 5-5-1, CLE: 4-8-0

• Hawks (-2, -112) vs. Jazz (+2, -108): 62% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Atlanta

  • ATL: 6-6, UTA: 7-4

NHL

• Capitals +114 vs. Panthers -135: 61% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Florida

• Sharks +136 vs. Flames -162: 81% of the money and 59% of the bets are with San Jose

• Jets -148 vs. Kraken +124: 75% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Winnipeg

NCAAM

• FIU (+21.5, -118) vs. LSU (-21.5, -104): 76% of the money and 73% of the bets are with LSU

• California (+6.5, -110) vs. Kansas State (-6.5, -110): 76% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Kansas State

5. Overtime

In the News 

• There were some massive performances on the hardwood yesterday, with Nikola Jokic scoring 55 in a Nuggets win (Denver was 0-4 when Jokic scored 50+ previously), Steph Curry collecting 46 points in a Warriors come-from-behind win over the Spurs, and Notre Dame junior Hannah Hidalgo setting a school record with 44 points to go with an NCAA-record 16 steals. On the other end of the spectrum, Knicks guard Jalen Brunson left Madison Square Garden on crutches after turning his ankle.

• After being benched again in favor of Jameis Winston, Giants quarterback Russell Wilson said he wants to stay in New York and also wants to play again next season. “I know what I’m capable of. I know how great I am. I know what I’ve done,” Wilson said.

• CBS Sports has a run through of potentially impactful injuries for Week 11 in the NFL. The top of the list: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson sat out practice yesterday with concerns about his knee.

• Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal won his second straight AL Cy Young, while Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes followed up his Rookie of the Year season with a unanimous NL Cy Young win. Skenes finished just 10-10 because of his team’s lack of offense, but had an NL-leading 1.97 ERA to go along with 216 strikeouts in 187 2/3 innings. Skubal is the first pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Youngs since Jacob deGrom in 2018-2019.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Raptors vs. Cavaliers on NBA TV (or No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 8 Alabama [NCAAM] on ESPN2)

• 7:30pm: Troy vs. Old Dominon [CFB] on ESPN

• 8:15pm: Jets vs. Patriots on Prime Video

• 9pm: No. 11 UNC vs. No. 3 UCLA [NCAAW] on ESPN2