Pelicans Hope Thunder Defense Sticks to Trend, Celtics Look to Bounce Back

This will be one of the most fun weekends of the season for NBA fans. There are back-to-back days with four playoff games, and there’s a sense of urgency in all eight matchups. The Magic and Sixers are trying to hold serve at home, the Heat, Pacers, and Mavs want to keep the home court advantage they stole, the Thunder can extinguish any hope the Pelicans might have, and the Lakers and Suns don’t want their seasons to end in embarrassing sweeps.

In today’s newsletter, Jason dives in on the Celtics chances to bounce back and is tracking the Lakers to be the first team out of the playoffs. In baseball, Craig is following a lot of good pitching today and thinks Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor has regained his form. And on the pitch, Sam is covering a demotivated Chelsea squad and Newcastle striker Alexander Isak’s goal-scoring streak.

Abe

• The Orlando Magic might’ve played their best game of the season on Thursday. The Magic earned a 121-83 win in Game 3 against the Cavaliers, where they scored 143.3 points per 100 possessions and held Cleveland to 91 points per 100 possessions. Orlando also shot a 60.7% effective field goal percentage, dominated the glass, and turned the ball over only 6% of the time. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers shot a 41.7% effective field goal percentage and only added 18.9% of offensive rebounds. Look for Orlando to continue this momentum in Game 4 at home. Orlando Magic (-130 at DraftKings)

• There hasn’t been a bad defensive game from the Thunder since April 7. The Thunder have put together six consecutive dominating defense performances, including the last two against the Pelicans. But here’s the deal: April 7th was also the last time the Thunder were on the road. Oklahoma City’s defense wasn’t nearly as remarkable away from Paycorn Center. In their final five-game road trip of the regular season, the Thunder allowed at least 120.6 points per 100 possessions in three of those games. The Pelicans could steal one here. New Orleans Pelicans (-102 at DraftKings)

• No matter who is on the Miami Heat, they’re a pesky bunch with less-known players stepping up in big spots. The Celtics likely came into the series expecting a cakewalk against a Jimmy Butler-less Heat. But now that they’re tied 1-1 and lost home-court advantage, look for the Celtics to really focus. Despite being dominant on the defensive glass, their defense has ultimately struggled in this series. For the Celtics to win, it’ll come down to more defensive communication and overall better shot-making on the offensive end. Boston Celtics -9 (-110 at DraftKings)

• This Lakers-Nuggets series has been much closer than people want to give it credit for. But at this point, down 0-3, the Lakers, specifically Anthony Davis, are talking about not knowing the game plan. There are also leaks about D’Angelo Russell looking toward free agency. The more the rumors come out, the more it seems the Lakers are checked out. Heck! Even LeBron James dropped the “it’s only basketball” line after the Game 3 loss. I’m not looking at the analytics in this game. This is a feel game. The Nuggets have won 11 straight games against the Lakers. Denver Nuggets (-159 at BetRivers)

• Wendell Carter Jr. saw an increase in minutes in Game 3 against the Cavaliers and still only went 1-for-4 from the field with two points. However, Orlando won by nearly 40 points in that game with Carter Jr. starting at center. You’d have to figure that he will get 25 minutes again today. Ultimately, Carter Jr. averaged 11 points per game during the regular season and shot 52.5% from the field. In two games against the Cavaliers in the regular season, he managed 11 points per game. This point total just got super low. Wendell Carter Jr. OVER 6.5 Points (-107 at BetRivers)

• Jalen Williams averaged 20 points per game this season for the Thunder. He also added 19.7 points per game against the Pelicans in three regular season games and dropped an average of 20 points in the first two playoff games. However, on the road, the Pelicans should ultimately play better defense. Williams has become the third option for the Thunder in the postseason, behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgrem. In a predicted low-scoring game with the thought that the Pelicans will come out on top, taking Williams Under 19.5 points makes the most sense. Jalen Williams UNDER 19.5 Points (+100 at DraftKings)

• It’s been two games in the NBA Playoffs for Jaime Jaquez. In those two games, he’s managed just three assists per game. He’s coming off 31 minutes against the Celtics, where he had only one assist. Instead, he took 13 shots from the field and allowed Tyler Herro to be the assist man. The Heat will work through Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. Those two will get everyone else involved. Jacquez could have a big day, but likely not in the assists column. Jaime Jaquez Jr. UNDER 3.5 Assists (-150 at BetRivers)

• Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has been one of the toughest pitchers to square up throughout the early juncture of the season, allowing a paltry .222 xwOBA, the best in MLB. He supports that with favorable advanced metrics and batted ball data and is 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA. The Padres have a .699 OPS against southpaws and are 6-8 at home. We expect Suarez to deliver another quality outing. Ranger Suarez over 17.5 outs recorded (-150 at DraftKings)

• We touched on Suarez above, but the Padres’ Dylan Cease has been on a roll of his own. They go about their craft in different ways — Suarez will add and subtract a bit more while Cease features overpowering stuff — but they’re mowing down hitters nonetheless. Quality contact, or contact at all, will already be at a premium tonight, but the favorable nighttime pitching conditions at Petco Park further promote the idea of a low-scoring affair. Phillies vs. Padres under 7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

• Edward Cabrera is the favorable pitcher on paper against Nationals rookie Mitchell Parker, but the Marlins struggle woefully against lefthanders, ranking 29th in OPS versus lefties and 25th in xwOBA. The Nats, meanwhile, are one of the league’s better teams when it comes to avoiding punchouts. Considering that generating swings and misses is a primary key to Cabrera’s success, we’re going to look for the Nationals to make enough contact to keep this one close. Nationals +0.5 first five innings (-122 at FanDuel)

• Oakland southpaw JP Sears takes the hill in the midst of a stretch of dominance, despite lacking overpowering stuff. He has a 0.52 ERA and is allowing a .166 wOBA over his last three starts (17.1 innings). The Orioles have hit lefties well this season, but we’re looking for Cole Irvin to keep the A’s bats under control as well. Oakland owns the league’s third worst xwOBA (.293) and a .698 OPS against lefties. Orioles vs. Athletics under 8 (+100 at FanDuel)

• We like Sears to continue his hot streak, even against the lefty mashing Orioles, but Baltimore’s Ryan Mountcastle still catches our eye in this matchup. He has success against Sears. It’s only 10 at-bats, but he has two homers over that span, not to mention a favorable career OPS versus southpaws. Mountcastle is batting .367 with .421 wOBA since April 7 and hits in the middle of a talented and productive lineup. Ryan Mountcastle over 1.5 total bases (+100 at DraftKings)

• Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor got off to a frigid start in 2024, but he’s slowly pushing his numbers upward. He’s hit safely in eight of 11 starts with a 1.046 OPS over that stretch. His batting average isn’t too hot against Cardinals starter Sonny Gray (5 for 21), but he’s connected on two homers. We’re not trying to be greedy in this spot. We like Lindor to continue his offensive awakening with a base knock. Francisco Lindor over 0.5 hits (-166 at Caesars)

• The Dodgers and Blue Jays may find themselves scratching and clawing for runs considering the pitching matchup. Both Tyler Glasnow and Yusei Kikuchi are enjoying a great deal of success thus far and have the numbers to show for it. Both rank top-20 in xwOBA with dominant strikeout numbers. Don’t be surprised to see a low-scoring pitcher’s duel, especially early before either lineup gets comfortable. Blue Jays vs. Dodgers under 4.5 first five innings (-135 at FanDuel)

• Newcastle striker Alexander Isak comes into today’s match on a serious hot streak with a goal in each of his last six starts in the Premier League. He now sits on a tally of 17 goals for the season in just 25 games. Isak has the best possible matchup with bottom of the table Sheffield United, which has conceded 92 goals in the league this season — a full 17 goals more than the next-worst team. Both Man Utd and Burnley have hit four goals past them in the past week, and Isak will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing their defense. Alexander Isak to score (-138 at Bet365)

• Chelsea come into this game having had a terrible week. Last Saturday, they lost their FA Cup semifinal to Man City despite playing fairly well, and then midweek they got smashed 5-0 by Arsenal. The most concerning part of that defeat was how unmotivated they looked. With the FA Cup now gone, they have nothing left to play for this season. That’s very different to Aston Villa, who are in good form and know that they have can seal fourth spot and Champions League qualification if they continue winning. Aston Villa are an attractive price (+130) to win this, but given we’ve seen Over 2.5 goals in each of Chelsea’s past seven Premier League games, we’re also tracking goals in this match. Aston Villa and Over 2.5 goals (+170 at FanDuel)

• PSG come into today knowing that a win over Le Havre will see them lift the Ligue 1 trophy once again. However, they play Dortmund in a Champions League semifinal on Wednesday. Given that they have an 11 point cushion in the league, it seems quite likely that they might rest some players. That likelihood of sitting their stars means that despite this being a title decider, we’re not looking at Kylian Mbappe to score. Instead we’re going to put our money on Goncalo Ramos to find the back of the net. He’s only started 14 of his 25 Ligue 1 games this season, but has scored 10 goals. He’s done well at home, with seven in 12 games at the Parc des Princes, including goals in each of his last five starts in Paris. With Mbappe likely resting, it’s the Portuguese striker’s time to shine. Matias Goncalo Ramos to score (+125 at Borgata)

• We have just two games left in the Championship and there is a desperate battle to avoid relegation to League One. The big game of the day sees 23rd-place Huddersfield host 22nd-place Birmingham City, with both teams needing to catch teams above them to escape the drop. These are two poor teams who both deserve to be relegated, but it’s Huddersfield who are favored to win (and rightly so). They have home advantage and face a Birmingham team who blew a chance to beat already relegated Rotherham last weekend. Huddersfield to win (+125 at DraftKings)

• While automatic promotion has been decided in League Two, there are six clubs fighting for three spots in the playoffs in today’s final matches of the season. One of those in Doncaster, who are currently fifth in the division and arguably the most in-form team on the planet. Two months ago, Doncaster were in the relegation zone before turning their form around. They’re coming into today on a 10-game winning streak. Gillingham are stuck in the middle of the table and have lost three of their past four, making it hard to see them stopping League Two’s form team at home, especially when a playoff spot is on the line. Doncaster to win (+105 at DraftKings)

• Another team in the playoff hunt is Crawley Town, who are currently on the outside looking in, just one point behind Barrow for the final playoff spot. Crawley have struggled to get over the line with just two points from the last 12 available, but they should be able to beat Grimsby, who despite being fourth from bottom are safe from relegation. Grimsby have nothing to play for and Crawley have both the motivation and the home advantage — a win would secure them playoffs if Barrow lose to Mansfield, who are second in the division. Crawley to win (-140 at DraftKings)

• Unless you’re a fan of either Nashville or San Jose it’s unlikely you’ll be tuning in to watch this MLS game since the home team is second from bottom in the Eastern Conference and San Jose is at the bottom of the West. Despite that, Nashville has lost just three times in eight games, scoring nine and conceding 16 as they picked up seven points. San Jose have a solitary win and have lost the other eight games that they’ve played this season, scoring 13 times but conceded an insane 24 goals. We’ve seen San Jose score but ultimately lose six of their nine games. Nashville to win and Both teams to score (+280 at FanDuel)

We publish our weekend soccer coverage at 8:30am ET at sportmoney.com, so be
sure to go there before the matches start if you’re looking for European soccer analysis.

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