Insights on First Set of CFB Conference Championships + NBA Bets to Watch With Injuries Mounting

We also look at the saga surrounding Penn State’s coaching search

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Penn State’s self-inflicted debacle

2. The Rundown: NFL MVP race could come down to two quarterbacks

3. Game of the Day: Conference championship matchup with CFP berth likely on the line

4. By the Numbers: Highlighting four visiting NBA teams with winning road records ATS

5. Overtime: The pass that ended LeBron’s streak that started in 2007

1. Leading Off

We’re about to find out how fast a college football program can turn things around in the NIL and transfer portal era. Penn State fired longtime coach James Franklin on October 12th, a day after a loss to Northwestern dropped the preseason No. 2 team to 3-3 and 0-3 in the Big Ten. Franklin took the Nittany Lions to the College Football Playoff semifinal last season and won the Rose Bowl two years prior, so conventional wisdom was that Penn State had a master plan to land a big-name coach that could deliver the school a national title. That turned out to be very wrong.

Penn State still doesn’t have a coach and was even publicly outmaneuvered by a cookie company founder during its clumsy process. The program just lost 20 recruits, falling to 155th in 247Sports rankings — just behind South Dakota State. Whoever takes over from Franklin is now going to have a massive rebuilding job not because of the former coach, who quickly landed at Virginia Tech and took 11 former Penn State recruits with him, but because of how the administration handled the situation.

Multiple news outlets are reporting that after a series of failures, Penn State’s latest coaching target is Iowa State’s Matt Campbell, who reportedly turned down the Detroit Lions’ head coaching job in 2021 and has rebuffed other high-profile opportunities. It would be a major turn of events if Penn State can be the opportunity that finally lures Campbell away from Iowa State after 10 seasons.

With so many high-quality players changing schools every season and tens of millions of dollars available to pay them, no matter who the Nittany Lions hire, they’ll have the ability and resources to fix the self-inflicted problem the school created. But will Penn State make it back to the College Football Playoff before Virginia Tech gets there? I wouldn’t bet on it.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

23-Year-Old Drake Maye is Slight Favorite to Win NFL MVP Over 37-Year-Old Matthew Stafford

• Could the NFL MVP race come down to quarterbacks Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford? The Athletic compared the two signal callers, who “have traveled wildly different paths to this candidacy,” with Maye currently the favorite at most sportsbooks.

• Other than at Penn State, the college football coaching carousel is still going strong: Former Florida coach Billy Napier got a new job, as he’s headed to James Madison. Oregon already lost its offensive coordinator to Kentucky, and now its defensive coordinator, Tosh Lupoi, has been named the head coach at Cal. And former Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein was named the school’s next head coach a day after Chris Klieman announced his retirement. Klein is currently Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator.

• The University of Kentucky men’s basketball team reportedly cost $22 million this year, but at just 5-3, the Wildcats are off to a slow start. “Kentucky still has yet to beat anyone with a pulse one month into the season,” Yahoo Sports wrote. No. 11 Gonzaga comes to Rupp Arena tonight.

• ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle ran through where all 30 MLB teams stand as the 2025 winter meetings approach. From the No. 1 Dodgers, whose “lineup is getting pretty old,” to the No. 30 Rockies, whose “roster needs everything, but at least there will be some fresh eyes on it.”

• The National Women’s Soccer League rejected a contract offer that the Washington Spirit it made to their superstar Trinity Rodman. “At issue is the NWSL’s salary cap, which is $3.5 million for each team for the 2026,” the Associated Press reported.

3. Game of the Day

No. 20 Tulane and No. 24 North Texas Play for Conference Championship, Likely CFP Berth

Tulane coach Jon Sumrall was hired by Florida and North Texas coach Eric Morris is headed to Oklahoma State, but the winner of this matchup could have another job first: gameplanning for the College Football Playoff. The American Conference championship should see a lot of scoring, as North Texas has the No. 1 offense in the country with an average of over 500 yards per game.

No. 24 North Texas (11-1) vs. No. 20 Tulane (10-2)
8pm on ABC

The Odds

• Spread: North Texas (-2.5, -112), Tulane (+2.5, -108)

  • 79% of the money and 68% of the bets are with North Texas

  • ATS | UNT: 10-2, TUL: 6-6

• Moneyline: North Texas -134, Tulane +114

• Total (66.5): Over -115, Under -105

  • UNT: 9-3, TUL: 4-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff | Passing Yards: 237.5 (291, 231, 241), Pass TD: 1.5 (0, 2, 2), Rushing Yards: 37.5 (-4, 8, 1)

• North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker | Passing Yards: 319.5 (366, 469, 298), Pass TD: 2.5 (3, 3, 2)

• Tulane WR Shazz Preston | Receiving Yards: 48.5 (43, 96, 29), Receptions: 3.5 (3, 5, 3), Anytime TD: +135 (0, 1, 0)

• North Texas WR Wyatt Young | Receiving Yards: 103.5 (127, 295, 143), Receptions: 6.5 (6, 8, 8), Anytime TD: -185 (0, 2, 1)

• Tulane RB Jamauri McClure | Rushing Yards: 69.5 (69, 122, 94), Anytime TD: +130 (0, 0, 1)

• North Texas RB: Caleb Hawkins: Rushing Yards 123.5 (186, 97, 189)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Highlighting Four Visiting NBA Teams With Winning Records ATS on Road

CFB

• Troy (+23.5, -108) vs. No. 25 James Madison (-23.5, -112): 78% of the money and 65% of the bets are with James Madison

  • ATS | Troy: 8-4, JM: 8-4

  • Total (46.5) | Troy: 5-7, JM: 6-6

• UNLV (+5.5, -110) vs. Boise State (-5.5, -110): 54% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Boise State

  • ATS | UNLV: 7-5, BSU: 7-5

  • Total (58.5) | UNLV: 6-6, BSU: 6-6

NBA

• Heat (14-8, 4-6 Away) vs. Magic (13-9, 8-4 Home)

  • Miami (+5.5, -110), Orlando (-5.5, -110): 60% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Miami

    • ATS | MIA (road): 6-4, ORL (home): 6-6

  • Total (241.5) | MIA: 12-10, ORL: 13-9

  • Injuries | MIA: Herro (DD), Powell (DD); Banchero (O)

  • Adebayo (MIA) - Points: 17.5 (21, 27, 15), Reb: 8.5 (7, 14, 10)

  • Wagner (ORL) - Points: 23.5 (25, 25, 21), Reb: 5.5 (4, 6, 7)

• Nuggets (15-6, 9-2 Away) vs. Hawks (13-10, 4-5 Home)

  • Denver (-6.5, -106), Atlanta (+6.5, -114): 51% of the money is with Atlanta but 62% of the bets are with Denver

    • ATS | DEN (road): 7-4, ATL (home): 4-5

  • Total (238.5) | DEN: 14-7, ATL: 12-11

  • Injuries | DEN: Jones (DD); ATL: Johnson (DD), Topping (O), Porzingis (O), Young (O)

  • Murray (DEN) - Points: 23.5 (52, 10, 24), Reb: 3.5 (6, 4, 3)

  • Alexander-Walker (ATL) - Points: 19.5 (21, 26, 34), Reb: 3.5 (5, 3, 8)

• Spurs (15-6, 6-4 Away) vs. Cavaliers (13-10, 8-5 Home)

  • San Antonio (+4.5, -110), Cleveland (-4.5, -110): 54% of the money is with Cleveland but 55% of the bets are with San Antonio

    • ATS | SA (road): 6-4, CLE (home): 3-10

  • Total (238.5) | SA: 11-10, CLE: 10-13

  • Injuries | SA: Wembanyama (O), Castle (O); CLE: Garland (O), Allen (O)

  • Fox (SA) - Points: 25.5 (31, 29, 25), Reb: 3.5 (5, 4, 2), Ast: 5.5 (5, 4, 4)

  • Mitchell (CLE) - Points: 29.5 (33, 43, 18), Reb: 4.5 (5, 9, 7), Ast: 5.5 (5, 6, 8)

  • Mobley (CLE) - Points: 19.5 (23, 13, 27), Reb: 9.5 (10, 5, 14), Ast: 3.5 (5, 5, 4)

• Suns (13-9, 5-5 Away) vs. Rockets (14-5, 6-2 Home)

  • Phoenix (+11.5, -108), Houston (-11.5, -112): 61% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Phoenix

    • ATS | PHX (road): 7-3, HOU (home): 4-3-1

  • Total (221.5) | PHX: 11-11, HOU: 11-8

  • Injuries | PHX: Booker (O), Allen (DD)

  • Brooks (PHX) - Points: 21.5 (33, 27, 19), Reb: 3.5 (2, 3, 3), Ast: 1.5 (2, 2, 2)

  • Sengun (HOU) - Points: 22.5 (28, 31, 27), Reb: 8.5 (10, 8, 4), Ast: 6.5 (3, 14, 5)

MCBB

• No. 11 Gonzaga (-3.5, -115) vs. No. 18 Kentucky (+3.5, -105): 79% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Gonzaga

  • ATS | GON: 6-2, UK: 4-4

  • Total (158.5) | GON: 3-5, UK: 4-4

• Cincinnati (+1.5, -114) vs. Xavier (-1.5, -106): 59% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Xavier

  • ATS | CIN: 2-6, XAV: 4-5

  • Total (145.5) | CIN: 2-6, XAV: 6-3

• Notre Dame (+5.5, -102) vs. TCU (-5.5, -120): 64% of the money and 63% of the bets are with TCU

  • ATS | ND: 5-4, TCU: 5-2

  • Total (139.5) | ND: 4-5, TCU: 3-4

• UAB (+1.5, -102) vs. Drake (-1.5, -118): 72% of the money and 73% of the bets are with Drake

  • ATS: UAB: 5-3, Drake: 4-3

  • Total (147.5) | UAB: 3-5, Drake: 4-3

5. Overtime

Quotable

“None. We won.” — LeBron James on his thoughts on his streak of 1,297 straight regular-season games scoring in double-figures ending last night. James scored eight points on 4-17 shooting but had the game-winning assist on a pass to Rui Hachimura, who hit a three-pointer as time expired to give the Lakers a 123-120 victory. James’ streak began on January 6, 2007, and he beat the record by over five seasons — Michael Jordan had 866 double-digit scoring efforts in a row, Kareem Abdul-Jabar did it 787 straight times, and Karl Malone was good for 575 games. The new active leader is Kevin Durant at 267, which is 1,030 behind James’s record.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 7pm: Lakers vs. Celtics on Prime Video (or Troy vs. No. 25 James Madison [CFB] on ESPN or No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 18 Kentucky [MCBB] on ESPN2)

• 8pm: No. 25 North Texas vs. No. 20 Tulane [CFB] on ABC

• 9:30pm: Mavericks vs. Thunder on Prime Video