Tonight’s NBA and NHL Bets to Watch + CFP Rankings Analysis

We also look at where bettors have money across the NBA and MCBB

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The unwinding of Bill Belichick’s legacy

2. Top 10: Alabama could cause the most CFP controversy

3. Game of the Day: Rockets are NBA-Best 7-1 ATS on the Road

4. By the Numbers: Looking ahead to Black Friday NFL odds

5. Overtime: The LeBron streak that’s likely coming to an end

1. Leading Off

In just two years, future NFL Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick’s reputation has taken a beating. After going 4-13 in his 24th season with the Patriots in 2023, he and team owner Robert Kraft announced they had mutually decided the coach was leaving — though Kraft later said he made the change because the franchise wasn’t meeting expectations.

Rather than retire like an ultra-successful millionaire 71-year-old might, Belichick instead went through an embarrassing process of floating himself for another NFL opening, but the immediate prospects didn’t seem good. In came the University of North Carolina, which offered Belichick a five year, $50 million contract to coach in college for the first time in his career. Both his professional and personal life have caused his “legacy to take a detour,” reports Tim Keown in a must-read feature on ESPN. Some highlights:

• “Belichick, predictably, has waved away questions about the postseason, perhaps unwilling to acknowledge the truth: An invite to the Gasparilla Bowl, especially one based on a technicality, would be a far sadder end to his first college season than a week in the office poring over the names appearing in the transfer portal.”

• “A New York Post article on Friday offered a potential reason for Belichick's tardiness and Hudson's absence: After the game, the outlet reported, Belichick's daughter-in-law Jen, the wife of defensive coordinator Steve Belichick, spent 40 minutes berating Bill and Hudson in the coach's office.”

• “Maybe the saddest part, for now, is the football. Belichick has been routinely outcoached, by Wake Forest's Jake Dickert and Duke's Manny Diaz and Clemson's beleaguered Dabo Swinney. His team does not display the typical Belichick hallmarks of discipline and preparedness. Against Duke, the Tar Heels had more penalty yardage (103) than rushing yards (101) and had two offensive personal fouls.”

Do yourself a favor and read the whole story. And in an ironic twist, yesterday NFL insider Josina Anderson reported that teams are still interested in bringing Belichick back to the league next season.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Top 10

Oregon, Ole Miss Switch Spots in Only College Football Playoff Top-10 Movement

Today we’re following the College Football Playoff rankings that were released last night rather than recreating the wheel. This could be one of the most impactful rivalry weeks in college football in a long time. Here’s what we think about the committee’s work:

1. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have lost four games in a row to Michigan. Last season’s defeat nearly got coach Ryan Day fired before he went and won a national championship, so there’s a 0% chance Ohio State will get caught sleeping this year.

2. Indiana: Their signature win over Oregon shocked the country. If the Hoosiers can get past one of the worst teams in major college football this week, Purdue, they could be double-digit underdogs to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten championship — and could win.

3. Texas A&M: The Aggies have beaten all comers but haven’t gained a ton of respect due to a remarkably soft conference schedule (obviously not their fault). Texas isn’t elite, but a win in Austin could keep A&M in a bye slot even with a loss in the SEC championship.

4. Georgia: With the conference slate in the books, the Bulldogs have to wait and see if they’ll get a shot at an SEC title. They likely need a win Saturday vs. No. 23 Georgia Tech plus a win in that game to earn a bye.

5. Texas Tech: A win over West Virginia sends the Red Raiders to the Big 12 championship and likely ensures a home playoff game at worst with a first-round bye a real possibility.

6. Oregon: The Ducks are the only top-10 team to move up, as they jumped Ole Miss after finally getting a quality win (42-27 over USC). Their biggest problem is they haven’t had a chance to prove themselves much.

7. Ole Miss: A win over Mississippi State on Friday could send the Rebels to the SEC Championship. The bigger question this week is will Lane Kiffin still be coaching in Oxford on Saturday.

8. Oklahoma: A potentially tricky game against LSU awaits the Sooners on Saturday, and a win likely seals Oklahoma’s spot in the playoff.

9. Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish can’t love seeing Miami creeping closer to the top 10 (the Hurricanes are 12th), as Notre Dame lost that matchup earlier in the season. It would still be strange to see the teams switch spots without a Fighting Irish loss at Stanford, though.

10. Alabama: If the Crimson Tide handle Auburn, earn the tiebreak to get to the SEC Championship, and then lose that game, it’ll be quite a debate to determine if a high-quality loss in the extra game should knock Alabama out of the playoff.

As a reminder, the top-5 conference champions will make the playoff — and it’s very likely the final two of those title winners won’t be in the top 12. We’re currently projecting No. 18 Virginia (ACC) and No. 24 Tulane (American) to take the 11th and 12th spots, respectively.

3. Game of the Day

Rockets are NBA-Best 7-1 ATS on the Road, Warriors are 6-1 ATS at Home

No team is better against the spread on the road than the Rockets (7-1), but the Warriors are 6-1 straight up and against the spread at home. Houston is one of the hottest teams in the NBA at eight wins in a row, but along with Golden State is 1-2 in the NBA Cup. It’s very unlikely either team can find its way to the knockout round, but this game also counts toward the regular season standings. Rockets leading scorer Kevin Durant is out.

Rockets (11-4, 6-2 Away) vs. Warriors (10-9, 6-1 Home)
10pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: Rockets (+2.5, -110), Warriors (-2.5, -110)

  • 59% of the money is with Golden State but 52% of the bets are with Houston

  • ATS — HOU (road): 7-1, GSW (home): 6-1

• Moneyline: Rockets +120, Warriors -142

• Total (224.5): Over -108, Under -112

  • HOU 10-4-1, GSW: 13-6-0

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Rockets C Alperen Sengun

  • Points: 23.5 (18, 14, 28), Reb: 10.5 (5, 5, 11), Ast: 6.5 (5, 6, 7)

• Rockets G Amen Thompson

  • Points: 19.5 (28, 22, 12), Reb: 7.5 (7, 7, 9), Ast: 5.5 (8, 2, 6)

• Warriors G Stephen Curry

  • Points: 26.5 (31, 38, 34), Reb: 3.5 (4, 2, 3)

• Warriors F Jimmy Butler

  • Points: 20.5 (18, 20, 33), Reb: 5.5 (6, 8, 7), Stl: 1.5 (1, 2, 3)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Two NBA Teams Struggling ATS on the Road in Action Tonight: Knicks (1-6), Spurs (1-4-1)

NBA

• Pistons (-3.5, -110) vs. Celtics (+3.5, -110): 64% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Detroit. ATS — DET (road): 5-3, BOS (home): 4-5

  • Cade Cunningham — Points: 25.5 (24, 29, 25), Reb: 5.5 (11, 8, 6), Asst: 8.5 (6, 10, 10)

  • Jalen Duren — Points: 18.5 (17, 19, 24), Reb: 12.5 (12, 6, 8)

  • Jaylen Brown — Points: 26.5 (35, 26, 29), Reb: 5.5 (4, 8, 4)

• Knicks (-6.5, -114) vs. Hornets (+6.5, -106): 79% of the money and 77% of the bets are with New York. ATS — NYK (road): 1-6, CHA (home): 4-4

  • Jalen Brunson — Points: 28.5 (27, 33, 28), Ast: 6.5 (3, 11, 5)

  • Karl-Anthony Towns — Points: 24.5 (37, 24, 18), Reb: 11.5 (12, 8, 14)

  • LaMelo Ball — Points: 19.5 (18, 18, 20), Reb: 4.5 (4, 7, 5), Ast: 7.5 (7, 9, 8)

• Bucks (+8.5, -106) vs. Heat (-8.5, -114): 69% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Miami. ATS — MIL (road): 2-5, MIA (home): 7-2

  • Bam Adebayo — Points: 17.5 (17, 18, 18), Reb: 8.5 (6, 13, 7)

  • Kyle Kuzma — 13.5 (15, 13, 17), Reb: 4.5 (6, 3, 3)

• Pacers (+10.5, -106) vs. Raptors (-10.5, -114): 70% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Toronto. ATS — IND (road): 3-6, TOR (home): 4-4

  • Brandon Ingram — Points: 23.5 (37, 14, 24), Reb: 5.5 (7, 6, 8)

  • Pascal Siakam — Points: 23.5 (24, 26, 22), Reb: 6.5 (8, 9, 4)

• Grizzlies (-4, -110) vs. Pelicans (+4, -110): 63% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Memphis. ATS — MEM (road): 2-6, NOP (home): 5-4-1

  • Jaren Jackson Jr. — Points: 21.5 (16, 18, 26), Reb: 5.5 (6, 6, 5)

  • Zion Williamson — Points: 22.5 (29, 22, 14), Ast: 4.5 (2, 2, 5)

  • Trey Murphy III — Points 19.5 (20, 19, 25), Reb: 5.5 (4, 9, 3)

• Spurs (+1.5, -110) vs. Trail Blazers (-1.5, -110): 57% of the money and bets are with San Antonio. ATS — SA (road): 1-4-1, POR (home): 5-2

  • De’Aaron Fox — Points: 24.5 (26, 26, 26), Ast: 7.5 (3, 9, 3)

  • Shaedon Sharpe — Points: 22.5 (29, 36, 19), Reb: 4.5 (2, 4, 8), Ast: 2.5 (3, 6, 3)

MCBB

• Syracuse (+9.5, -102) vs. No. 15 Iowa State (-9.5, -120): 79% of the money and 66% of the bets are with the Cyclones

• Notre Dame (+11.5, -115) vs. No. 3 Houston (-11.5, -105): 86% of the money and 80% of the bets are with the Cougards

• Kansas (+4.5, -102) vs. No. 17 Tennessee (-4.5, -120): 90% of the money and 83% of the bets are with the Volunteers

• No. 14 St. John’s (-6.5, -104) vs. No. 21 Auburn (+6.5, -118): 62% of the money and 64% of the bets are with the Red Storm

• No. 23 NC State (-3.5, -108) vs. Texas (+3.5, -112): 57% of the money and 62% of the bets are with the Wolfpack

• No. 12 Gonzaga (-1.5, -110) vs. No. 7 Michigan (+1.5, -110): 59% of the money and 63% of the bets are with the Wolverines

NFL (Friday)

• Bears (+7, -118) vs. Eagles (-7, -104): 64% of the money is with Philadelphia but 56% of the bets are with Chicago

  • ATS — CHI (home): 3-2, PHI (road): 4-2

  • Total (44.5): Over/Under -110 — CHI 5-6, PHI 5-6

5. Overtime

In the News 

• LeBron James has been named to an All-NBA team for a record 21 straight times, and ESPN’s Dave McMenamin reports why that streak is at risk this season: “From now until the Lakers' regular-season finale on April 12, James can only miss three games to stay eligible for All-NBA.”

• Oklahoma State hired its first new football coach in 20 years, bringing in Eric Morris from North Texas to take over a squad that has lost 17 Big 12 games in a row. Morris’s Mean Green have a shot at a College Football Playoff berth, and he’ll remain with his current team until their run ends. Morris led North Texas to 5-7 and 6-7 campaigns before going 10-1 so far this year, and was 24-18 in four seasons at Incarnate Word in his previous head coaching stop.

• Just 19 games into his NBA career, Cooper Flagg “has been part of more losses with the Dallas Mavericks this season than he experienced in his last four years of basketball combined,” Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press reports in a feature out yesterday. “College is over, but class is still very much in session,” he wrote.

• Alex Rodriguez said there is “some hypocrisy” around former MLB commissioner Bud Selig getting into the Hall of Fame while players are being left out because of steroid era-suspensions and controversies that took place while Selig was in charge.

Quotable

“You want to be solution-oriented and not really much to dwell on the problem. Granted, we know the problem, I need to catch the f-ing ball. Other than that, man, we’ll be fine. When I do catch it, be ready.” —Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb on dropping three passes in Dallas’s comeback win over the Eagles on Sunday.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 1pm: Syracuse vs. No. 15 Iowa State [MCBB] on TNT

• 2pm: No. 4 Texas vs. No. 3 UCLA [WCBB] on truTV

• 3pm: Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich [Champions League] on Paramount+

• 3:30pm: Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Houston [MCBB] on TNT

• 5pm: Pistons vs. Celtics on ESPN

• 7pm: Kansas vs. No. 17 Tennessee [MCBB] on TNT

• 7:30pm: Timberwolves vs. Thunder on ESPN

• 8pm: No. 14 St. John’s vs. No. 21 Auburn [MCBB] on truTV

• 9:30pm: No. 12 Gonzaga vs. No. 7 Michigan [MCBB] on TNT

• 10pm: Rockets vs. Warriors on ESPN