Our Top 10 College Football Bets to Watch and the Matchups that Could Decide Today’s Biggest Games

We're also highlighting the new Heisman favorite

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Meet the new Heisman favorite

2. Bets to Watch: Indiana ranks 4th in the country in yards allowed per completion (9.65)

3. Top 10: The college football matchups that could decide today’s games

4. Public Money: Bettors aren’t scared of big spreads for Ohio State, Indiana and Georgia

5. Overtime: The Orlando Jaguars?

1. Leading Off

Julian Sayin is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and the Ohio State sophomore quarterback earned it with a demolition job against Penn State last week. He threw for 316 yards and four touchdowns while completing 20 of 23 passes, his fifth 300-yard game this season.

The betting markets reacted immediately to Sayin's performance. He jumped from +400 to +175 overnight, creating a little separation from the field. Indiana's Fernando Mendoza sits at +225, Alabama's Ty Simpson is at +340, and Texas A&M's Marcel Reed rounds out the top four at +650 (all are quarterbacks).

What makes Sayin special isn't just the big numbers but the efficiency behind them. He leads the country in completion percentage at 80.7% and has thrown 23 touchdowns against just three interceptions. His last pick came back in mid-September, and he hasn't fumbled once this season. Those are the kind of clean stats that Heisman voters love.

The schedule sets up perfectly for Sayin to pad his resume over the next three weeks. Ohio State faces Purdue today and is favored by 30. Two more cupcakes follow (UCLA and Rutgers) before the Michigan rivalry game, where Sayin will be looking to end the Buckeyes’ four-game losing streak to the Wolverines.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Texas Tech Ranks 5th in Points Allowed (13.5), 1st in Rushing Yards Allowed (74.6) per Game

By Jack Dougherty

Boston College +10.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
We highlighted SMU against Miami last week, and the Mustangs got us paid with an outright win at home. This is just as intriguing to fade SMU coming off that emotional victory. The upset win pushed…

3. Top 10

The Potential Game-Deciding Matchups to Watch During Today’s College Football Slate

November brings pressure in college football. These 10 matchups will define who stays in the playoff (or good bowl game) hunt and who has an uphill climb the rest of the season. From freshmen standouts to veteran stalwarts, Saturday's games feature what could be season-defining head-to-heads.

1. BYU true freshman QB Bear Bachmeier vs. Texas Tech's nation-leading havoc creator Jacob Rodriguez: Rodriguez leads the nation in forced fumbles (7) and has 77 tackles. Bachmeier has thrown just three picks all year. This top-10 showdown in Lubbock will test if the 19-year-old can handle the biggest stage of his young career.

2. Georgia freshman RB Chauncey Bowens vs. Mississippi State's struggling run defense: Georgia’s ground game might have found its next star. Bowens has rushed for over 60 yards in four of his last five games, including 12 carries for 119 yards against Alabama. Mississippi State gives up yards on the ground in bunches: The (other) Bulldogs allow 157 rushing yards per game.

3. Oregon QB Dante Moore vs. Iowa's veteran defense at Kinnick Stadium: Moore has completed 71% of his passes with 19 touchdowns in a breakout first season with the Ducks. Iowa's defense ranks second in the nation and allows just 125 passing yards per game. Moore handled Penn State's White Out in September, now he faces a black and gold buzzsaw in always tough Iowa City.

4. Texas A&M pass rush leader Cashius Howell vs. Missouri third-string QB Matt Zollers: Howell has been a menace to opposing quarterbacks this season with 9.5 sacks. Zollers is Missouri's third-string signal caller after the Tigers lost both Beau Pribula and Sam Horn, who started the season as co-No. 1s on the depth chart. Zollers has looked decent in limited action, but hasn't faced a front seven like Texas A&M's.

5. LSU interim coach Frank Wilson vs. Alabama's dominant home atmosphere: The Tigers fired Brian Kelly and need a spark. Wilson takes over with talent but zero momentum after back-to-back losses, including Kelly’s tenure-ending blowout defeat to Texas A&M. Despite it all, LSU has the pieces to hang around, the question is whether a coaching change provides enough juice to keep this one close.

6. Navy's top-ranked rushing attack vs. Notre Dame's 14th-ranked run defense: The Midshipmen average more rushing yards than anyone in the country (317.3). Notre Dame stops the run better than most (90.9 ypg). If Navy can control the clock there’s a chance they could keep it close, but if not, Notre Dame's athletes can take over and run away with it.

7. TCU QB Josh Hoover vs. Iowa State's collapsing defense: Hoover throws for nearly 300 yards per game and has 22 touchdowns, while Iowa State can't stop anyone right now. The Cyclones have lost four straight games, giving up over 31 points per contest. Hoover should be able to get the job done today unless Iowa State’s can revert to it’s early-season form, when the Cyclones allowed just 14.2 points per game during their 5-0 start.

8. Wake Forest RB Demond Claiborne vs. Virginia's seven-game winning streak: The Demon Deacons bring one of the ACC's most dangerous backs into hostile territory, as Claiborne has three games with 119+ yards. Virginia is riding a seven-game win streak and hasn't lost since early September. The Cavaliers allow just 18.9 points per game with the No. 2 scoring defense in the ACC. After being held to 27 yards on 14 carriers last week against Florida State, Claiborne will need a monster game to give Wake Forest a shot.

9. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels vs. Arizona's struggling defense on the road: The Jayhawks head west looking to earn bowl eligibility. Daniels has shown flashes this season but struggles with consistency. Arizona's defense ranks near the bottom of the Big 12. Kansas won last week against Oklahoma State after back-to-back 42-17 losses, the question is whether they can string together back-to-back wins for the first time since the first two weeks of the season.

10. Cal true freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele vs. Louisville's ball-hawking defense: The only true freshman in Power 4 football to throw for 200-plus yards in every game has a tough matchup today. Sagapolutele has thrown nine interceptions already this season, and Louisville’s defense ranks 11th nationally — Cardinals linebacker Antonio Watts is tied for 15th nationally with three picks.

4. Public Money

Bettors Backing a Handful of Ranked Road Favorites With Big Spreads

CFB

• No. 2 Indiana (-14.5, -112) vs. Penn State (+14.5, -108): 82% of the money and 81% of the bets are with the Hoosiers

  • IND: 6-3, PSU: 1-7

• No. 5 Georgia (-9.5, -110) vs. Mississippi State (+9.5, -110): 67% of the money and 69% of the bets are with UGA

  • UGA: 3-5, MSU: 8-1

• No. 1 Ohio State (-29.5, -115) vs. Purdue (+29.5, -105): 89% of the money and 78% of the bets are with the Buckeyes

  • OSU: 7-1, PUR; 4-5

• No. 3 Texas A&M (-6.5, -120) vs. No. 22 Missouri (+6.5, -102): 81% of the money and 75% of the bets are with the Aggies

  • A&M: 4-4, MIZ: 5-3

• Auburn (+6.5, -110) vs. No. 16 Vanderbilt (-6.5, -110): 82% of the money and 83% of the bets are with Vandy

  • AUB: 3-6, VAN: 7-2

• No. 23 Washington (-11.5, -106) vs. Wisconsin (+11.5, -114): 81% of the money and 77% of the bets are with the Huskies

  • UW: 4-4, WIS: 3-5

• Wake Forest (+6.5, -104) vs. No. 14 Virginia (-6.5, -118): 79% of the money and 78% of the bets are with UVA

  • WF: 5-3, UVA: 6-3

• LSU (+10.5, -110) vs. No. 4 Alabama (-10.5, -110): 84% of the money and 80% of the bets are with the Crimson Tide

  • LSU: 3-5, ALA: 5-3

NBA

• Bulls (+8.5, -112) vs. Cavaliers (-8.5, -108): 65% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Chicago

• Pelicans (+11.5, -110) vs. Spurs (-11.5, -110): 81% of the money and 66% of the bets are with San Antonio

• Lakers (-3.5, -108) vs. Hawks (+3.5, -112): 83% of the money and bets are with Los Angeles

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Another star Japanese baseball player could be headed to MLB, as third baseman Munetaka Murakami started the process of becoming a free agent yesterday, according to ESPN. The 25-year-old has the single-season home run record for a Japanese player in the Nippon Professional Baseball league, as he hit 56 in 2022 to break a record that was set in 1964.

• The NBA is hoping to launch it’s new Europe-based basketball league in October 2027, the Associated Press reports. The goal is for the 16-team league to have 12 permanent franchises while cycling in four others. Current target cities include London, Manchester, Paris, Lyon, Madrid, Barcelona, Rome, Milan, Munich, Berlin, Athens and Istanbul.

• The Jaguars are planning to play their home games in Orlando during the 2027 season while their home stadium undergoes a major renovation. Jacksonville still needs approval from NFL owners, which it expects to receive next month.

• In just 24 hours, the Jets completely altered their franchise, ESPN reports. By trading cornerback Sauce Gardner to the Colts and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys for a combined four draft picks, the franchise decided it was time to rebuild — even its top-5 defense.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 9am: F1’s São Paulo Grand Prix Sprint Race on ESPN2

• 10am: Everton vs. Fulham on USA (followed by Sunderland vs. Arsenal at 12:30pm)

• 12pm: No. 7 BYU vs. No. 8 Texas Tech (CFB) on ABC (or No. 15 Alabama vs. No. 5 St. John’s (NCAAM) on FS1)

• 3:30pm: No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 20 Iowa (CFB) on CBS (or No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 22 Missouri on ABC)

• 7pm: No. 14 Arkansas vs. No. 22 Michigan State (NCAAM) on FOX

• 7:30pm: Navy vs. No. 10 Notre Dame (CFB) on NBC (or LSU vs. No. 4 Alabama on ABC)

• 8pm: Lakers vs. Hawks on NBA TV

• 10:30pm: Suns vs. Clippers on ESPN