Our 10 College Football Bets to Watch on a Packed Saturday Slate

We also looked at the ranked CFB teams that bettors are backing in a big way

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: What’s at stake in today’s college football matchups

2. Bets to Watch: Sark’s script vs. Kirby’s adjustments

3. Game of the Day: Georgia and Texas face off to stay in SEC championship game hunt

4. By the Numbers: Road underdog Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS this season

5. Overtime: Who’s the next Curt Cignetti?

1. Leading Off

The SEC takes center stage today with a couple of games that have huge SEC and CFP implications. No. 11 Oklahoma visits No. 4 Alabama at 3:30pm on ABC and No. 10 Texas faces No. 5 Georgia at 7:30pm, also on ABC (don’t worry YouTube TV subscribers, you have ABC and ESPN again).

The No. 10 Longhorns likely need to win out to have a shot at the SEC title, but a loss at No. 5 Georgia might not end their playoff chances — Texas still has No. 3 Texas A&M at home to close the season. The Bulldogs need a loss from those Aggies or No. 4 Alabama, both undefeated in the SEC, to have a shot to make it to the conference championship game, and like Texas, could find their way into the playoff even with a loss today.

While Oklahoma already has two conference losses, the Sooners could make a strong case for an at-large CFP spot with a win in Tuscaloosa. Alabama only has a flailing Auburn team left in SEC play after today, so a win against Oklahoma likely means the Crimson Tide will return to the conference championship game for the ninth time in 14 years. Alabama has won nine times in a row when appearing in the title game, a streak that goes back to 2009.

Another game game SEC and Big Ten teams will be watching: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 22 Pittsburgh. A Fighting Irish loss would open up an at-large spot that seems destined for Notre Dame if the school wins out. But Pittsburgh, which is still playing for an ACC Championship and CFP spot, is a 12.5-point home underdog.

— Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Pitt’s Coach Could Be Trying to Rope-A-Dope Notre Dame With Pre-Game Comments

By Jack Dougherty

Pittsburgh +12.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi made headlines this week when he told reporters he essentially doesn’t care if his team loses by 100 this week. He’s correct — the Panthers need…

3. Game of the Day

With Spotlight Back on Manning, No. 10 Texas Travels to No. 5 Georgia

Texas quarterback Arch Manning seems to have found his groove after a slow start to the season, as he’s passed for 674 yards and has six touchdowns to one interception in his past two games (both wins). No. 5 Georgia’s lone loss of the season was a three-point home heartbreak to then-No. 17 Alabama.

No. 10 Texas (7-2, 4-1 SEC) vs. No. 5 Georgia (8-1, 6-1 SEC)
7:30pm on ABC

The Odds

• Spread: Texas (+6.5, -112), Georgia (-6.5, -108)

  • 65% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Georgia

  • UT: 2-7, UGA: 4-5

• Moneyline: Texas +190, Georgia -225

  • 63% of the money is with UT but 78% of the bets are with UGA

• Total (49.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • UT: 4-5, UGA: 4-5

Players to Watch

• Georgia QB Gunner Stockton: 179-258 (69.4%), 2,040 yards, 15 TD, 2 INT, 153.4 rating

• Texas QB Arch Manning: 168-268 (62.7%), 2,123 yards, 18 TD, 6 INT, 146.9 rating

• Georgia RB Nate Frazier: 101 carries, 575 yards, 3 TD, 8 receptions, 54 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD, 0 fumbles

• Texas WR Ryan Wingo: 31 receptions, 593 yards (19.1 average), 5 TD, 0 fumbles

• Georgia LB CJ Allen: 75 tackles (39 solo), 3.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 3 pass deflections

• Texas DB Jelani McDonald: 55 tackles (31 solo), 2 INT, 1 fumble recovery, 3 pass deflections

Props

• UGA QB Gunner Stockton Passing Yards (220.5): Over -114, Under -114

• UT QB Arch Manning Passing Yards (222.5): Over -114, Under -114

• UGA WR Zachariah Branch Receiving Yards (62.5): Over -114, Under -114

• UGA WR Oscar Delp Receiving Yards (22.5): Over -114, Under -114

• UT WR Ryan Wingo Receiving Yards (58.5): Over -114, Under -114

• UT WR DeAndre Moore Receiving Yards (32.5): Over -114, Under -114

• UGA RB Nate Frazier Rushing Yards (54.5): Over -114, Under -114

• UT RB Quintrevion Wisner Rushing Yards (45.5): Over -114, Under -114

4. By the Numbers

12 Ranked CFB Teams That Have 60%+ of Spread Bettors Backing Them

CFB

• Arizona (+6.5, -102) vs. No. 12 Cincinnati (-6.5, -120): 76% of the money and 73% of the bets are with Cincinnati

  • Spread — UA: 5-4, CIN: 6-3

  • Total (56.5) — UA: 4-5, CIN: 6-3

• South Carolina (+17.5, -110) vs. No. 3 Texas A&M (-17.5, -110): 75% of the money and 69% of the bets are with A&M

  • Spread — USC: 4-5, A&M: 5-4

  • Total (49.5) — USC: 3-6, A&M: 7-2

• No. 24 South Florida (-10.5, -106) vs. Navy (+10.5, -114): 67% of the money and 65% of the bets are with South Florida

  • Spread — USF: 7-2, Navy: 2-7

  • Total (63.5) — USF: 6-3, Navy: 7-2

• Wisconsin (+29.5, -115) vs. No. 2 Indiana (-29.5, -105): 65% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Indiana

  • Spread — WIS: 4-5, IND: 6-4

  • Total (43.5) — WIS: 2-7, IND: 7-3

• NC State (+14.5, -110) vs. No. 15 Miami (-14.5, -110): 63% of the money and 56% of the bets are with Miami

  • Spread — NC St.: 4-5, UM: 5-4

  • Total (55.5) — NC St.: 6-3, UM: 4-5

• UCF (+23.5, -108) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech (-23.5, -112): 90% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Texas Tech

  • Spread — UCF: 4-5, TTU: 9-1

  • Total (47.5) — UCF: 4-5, TTU: 4-6

• No. 16 Georgia Tech (-16.5, -110) vs. Boston College (+16.5, -110): 88% of the money and 79% of the bets are with Georgia Tech

  • Spread — GT: 6-3, BC: 4-6

  • Total (59.5) — GT: 6-3, BC: 7-3

• No. 11 Oklahoma (+5.5, -100) vs. No. 4 Alabama (-5.5, -122): 80% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Alabama

  • Spread — OU: 5-4, ALA: 6-3

  • Total (45.5) — OU: 2-7, ALA: 4-5

• New Mexico State (+40.5, -110) vs. No. 23 Tennessee (-40.5, -110): 88% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Tennessee

  • Spread — NMSU: 4-5, UT: 4-5

  • Total (61.5) — NMSU: 3-6, UT: 7-2

• Florida (+11.5, -112) vs. No. 7 Ole Miss (-11.5, -108): 76% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Ole Miss

  • Spread — UF: 3-6, MISS: 6-4

  • Total (54.5) — UF: 3-6, MISS: 5-5

• No. 13 Utah (-8.5, -110) vs. Baylor (+8.5, -110): 74% of the money and 73% of the bets are with Utah

  • Spread — UTA: 7-2, BAY: 2-7

  • Total (60.5) — UTA: 6-3, BAY: 5-4

• UCLA (+31.5, -105) vs. No. 1 Ohio State (-31.5, -115): 70% of the money and 63% of the bets are with Ohio State

  • Spread — UCLA: 3-6, OSU: 7-2

  • Total (47.5) — UCLA: 4-5, OSU: 3-6

5. Overtime

In the News 

• When Indiana hired James Madison coach Curt Cignetti in 2023, the college football world didn’t think much of it. Now he has the Hoosiers on the cusp of back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances. ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg takes a look at who could be the next Cignetti in what will be a wild college football coaching carousel this offseason.

• What is rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart’s future with the Giants? CBS Sports reports that that depends on what New York does with its head coaching vacancy.

• The Associated Press is all over the 6-7 craze sweeping through college basketball. Have no idea what we’re talking about? Read the story to learn why “Dictionary.com made the viral term ‘6-7’ its word of the year, and it isn’t even really a word.”

• ESPN’s feature on BYU freshman AJ Dybantsa is worth a read. The No. 1 recruit in the 2025 class and almost certain top-5 NBA Draft pick is the school’s first top recruit told ESPN: “…my main goal is to go to the NBA and I wanted the closest thing to an NBA playing style, the closest thing to an NBA coach.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12pm: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 22 Pittsburgh [CFB] on ABC

• 3:30pm: No. 11 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Alabama [CFB] on ABC (or No. 21 Iowa vs. No. 17 USC [CFB] on Big Ten Network)

• 4pm: No. 18 Notre Dame vs. No. 14 Michigan [NCAAW] on NBC

• 5pm: Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers on NBA TV

• 7pm: No. 3 UConn vs. No. 7 BYU [NCAAM] on FOX (or Bruins vs. Canadiens on NHL Network)

• 7:30pm: No. 10 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia [CFB] on ABC

• 8pm: Lakers vs. Bucks on NBA TV (or No. 2 South Carolina vs. No. 8 USC [NCAAW] on FOX)

• 10:15pm: TCU vs. No. 12 BYU [CFB] on ESPN