In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: NFL division favorites

2. Bets to Watch: Guardians’ rookie phenom is back on the mound

3. Game of the Day: Belichick’s college debut could be tough

4. Public Bets: Bettors are split in the Gauff vs. Osaka match

5. Power Rankings: Our weekly look at where the CFP stands

6. Overtime: The Cowboys got a big contract extension done

1. Leading Off

The NFL starts on Thursday with the Cowboys vs. Eagles (8:20pm ET on NBC) followed by the Chiefs vs. Chargers from Brazil on Friday (8pm on YouTube). Before the season begins, we wanted to give you a look at the current odds to win each division, via FanDuel:

• AFC East: Bills -260, Patriots +500, Dolphins +700, Jets +1700

• AFC North: Ravens -155, Bengals +240, Steelers +550, Browns +3000

• AFC South: Texans +110, Jaguars +270, Colts +360, Titans +700

• AFC West: Chiefs -105, Broncos +300, Chargers +320, Raiders +1100

• NFC East: Eagles -145, Commanders +220, Cowboys +700, Giants +1600

• NFC North: Packers +170, Lions +185, Vikings +350, Bears +600

• NFC South: Buccaneers -110, Falcons +210, Panthers +420, Saints +1600

• NFC West: 49ers +145, Rams +200, Cardinals +400, Seahawks +550

—Abe Rakov

P.S. Starting next Monday, the free edition of Sportmoney is moving to Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday each week. If you want our coverage 7 days a week (including our NFL bets to watch), head to our website to get one month free: https://sportmoney.com/upgrade.

2. Bets to Watch

Guardians Rookie Starter Has Struck Out 12 Batters in First 13.2 Innings

Phillies vs. Brewers over 8.5 runs (-120 at FanDuel)
The Phillies average 4.74 runs per game while the Brewers score 5.10, ranking third in MLB in runs. Both teams have potent offenses with the Phillies hitting 170 home runs and the Brewers hitting 149 home runs, while their pitching staffs have ERAs of 3.81 and 3.60 respectively, making this total achievable for these high-scoring clubs.

Brewers moneyline (-154 at FanDuel)
The Milwaukee Brewers have been profitable on the moneyline with a 15.03% ROI this season. They have a 63.4% win percentage in games when favored by -162 or better on the moneyline, and have been especially strong at home.

Astros over 4.5 runs (+102 at FanDuel)
The Houston Astros average 3.96 runs per game this season and rank eighth in the American League in runs scored with 572 total runs through 137 games. Jose Altuve has 23 home runs and Christian Walker adds 74 RBIs, while Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi has given up 4+ on his own in three of four starts.

Reds moneyline (-120 at FanDuel)
Cincinnati gets the significant pitching advantage with Hunter Greene (5-4, 2.81 ERA) on the mound against Toronto’s Chris Bassitt (11-7, 4.14 ERA), who has struggled mightily on the road with a 6.10 ERA away from home. The Reds just snapped a five-game losing streak with a victory over St. Louis and are fighting for a wild-card spot, sitting four games back of the final playoff position, while the Blue Jays are just 34-34 on the road this season.

Guardians vs. Red Sox under 8.5 runs (-120 at FanDuel)
Cleveland has averaged just 2.2 runs per game over their last 10 contests while posting a .223 batting average this season. The Red Sox are starting Brayan Bello, who has given up over three earned runs just once since mid-May. Guardians rookie pitcher Parker Messick has … mesmerized … opposing hitters, giving up 1 earned run across 13.2 innings while striking out 12 in his first two starts.

Tigers moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)
Mets starter Sean Manaea has given up 4+ runs in four of five starts, while the Tigers’ Charlie Morton has allowed 3 runs or fewer in five of seven. The Mets continue their road struggles at 28-37 away from Citi Field and have managed just one road series win against a team with a winning record all season, while Detroit has won seven of their last 10 games at home.

Cubs moneyline (-120 at FanDuel)
Braves starter Spencer Strider (5-12, 4.95 ERA) has struggled to return to his 2023 form and ranks in the bottom 25% of MLB in expected ERA and barrel rate allowed. The Braves remain one of baseball’s worst road teams at 29-42 away from Truist Park, while Chicago is a formidable 41-25 at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have won 29 of their last 44 games at home for a 9% ROI on their home moneyline bets.

College Football

TCU vs. North Carolina first half under 28.5 points (-134 at FanDuel)
Both teams should play conservative football early with Bill Belichick making his college coaching debut and installing a new system with over 60 new faces on North Carolina’s roster, including starting quarterback Gio Lopez, who transferred from South Alabama. TCU’s defense showed significant improvement in the second half of last season under new defensive coordinator Andy Avalos. Belichick has specifically praised TCU’s explosiveness on defense and their ability to “attack every blade of grass,” suggesting he expects a tough defensive battle that could keep first-half scoring relatively low.

Tennis

Alexander Bublik to win at least one set — Yes (-106 at FanDuel)
Bublik reached the fourth round of the US Open by defeating Tommy Paul in five sets, showing his ability to compete in long matches. Bublik has won three of the past four tournaments he’s played (including one ATP 500-level event), and beat today’s opponent, No. 1 Jannik Sinner, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 in June in Halle.

Felix Auger-Aliassime to win (+114 at FanDuel)
Auger-Aliassime won two ATP titles on hard courts to start the season before sputtering a bit, but he just upset third-seeded Alexander Zverev in five sets. He faces Andrey Rublev, who needed five sets to beat Chak Lam Coleman Wong in his last match and has struggled with consistency, making the Canadian good value as the underdog.

3. Game of the Day

The Belichick Era Begins With a Tough Non-Conference Matchup Against TCU (-3.5, -108)

Bill Belichick makes his college coaching debut tonight when North Carolina hosts TCU in what could be a challenging opener for the Tar Heels’ completely overhauled roster.

TCU vs. North Carolina
8pm ET on ESPN

• Spread: TCU -3.5 (-112), UNC +3.5 (-108)

• Moneyline: TCU -160, UNC +132

• Total (55.5): Over -105, Under -114

Public Betting

• Spread: 62% of the money and 58% of the bets are with UNC

• Moneyline: 72% of the money and 60% of the bets are with UNC

• Total: 85% of the money and 70% of the bets are on the under

Players to Watch

• UNC Quarterback Gio Lopez: The South Alabama transfer was officially named UNC’s starting quarterback by Bill Belichick. He completed 66% of his passes for 2,559 yards and 18 touchdowns while adding 463 rushing yards and seven touchdowns last season.

• TCU Quarterback Josh Hoover: He set the TCU school record with 3,949 passing yards and 27 touchdowns last season while completing 66.5% of his passes, and is on the Maxwell Award watch list for 2025.

• UNC Cornerback Thaddeus Dixon: The Washington transfer earned All-Big Ten honorable mention after recording 43 tackles, one interception and 10 pass breakups in 2024 under Steve Belichick, Bill’s son.

• TCU Wide Receiver Eric McAlister: McAlister grabbed 39 receptions for 762 yards and five touchdowns in 2024, leading the nation with 89.7% of his catches (35-39) going for first downs.

• UNC Linebacker Andrew Simpson: The Boise State transfer earned second-team All-Mountain West honors in 2023 with 66 tackles and 6.5 sacks, and had 45 tackles with three sacks and three forced fumbles in 2024.

• TCU Safety Bud Clark: The preseason All-Big 12 second-team safety recorded 67 tackles and led TCU with three interceptions last season, giving him 11 career picks (ninth all-time at TCU).

4. Public Bets

Gauff (-165) is Favored Over Osaka, But Bettors Are Split

MLB

• Mets (-1.5, +150) vs. Tigers (+1.5, -182): 65% of the money is with New York but 57% of the bets are with Detroit

• Athletics (+1.5, -162) vs. Cardinals (-1.5, +134): 51% of the money is with the Athletics but 69% of the bets are with St. Louis

• Giants (-1.5, +106) vs. Rockies (+1.5, -128): 82% of the money and 56% of the bets are with San Francisco

• Phillies (+1.5, -154) vs. Brewers (-1.5, +128): 89% of the money is with the Brewers but the bets are 50/50

WNBA

• Atlanta Dream (-10.5) vs. Connecticut Sun: 57% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx (-14): 96% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Minnesota

• Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm (-6): 95% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Seattle

Tennis

• Jaume Munar (+200) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (-275): 50% of the money and 84% of the bets are with Musetti

• Andrey Rublev (-150) vs. Felix Auger Aliassime (+110): 53% of the money is with FAA but 56% of the bets are with Rublev

• Coco Gauff (-165) vs. Naomi Osaka (+120): 53% of the money is with Osaka but 66% of the bets are with Gauff

• Karolina Muchova (-165) vs. Marta Kostyuk (+120): 71% of the money and 79% of the bets are with Muchova

5. Power Rankings

Sportmoney CFP Rankings: Who Would Be in Our Field After 1 Week

Everyone Monday during the season, we’re going to give you our College Football Playoff rankings. As a reminder, this isn’t the top 12 teams in the country, as the playoff will be made up of the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large teams.

1. Ohio State (Big Ten): The Buckeyes have a long way to go on offense, but their defense gives them a shot at an undefeated regular season.

2. Penn State: We kept the Nittany Lions ahead of LSU only because we’re unsure about Clemson, but Penn State did what it needed to in Week 1.

3. LSU (SEC): Many prognosticators thought the Tigers were underrated to start the season — us, too.

4. Georgia: Their SEC schedule could be more difficult, so it’s not hard to see the Bulldogs finding their way back to the conference championship game.

5. Miami (ACC): Carson Beck is back and always seems to find a way to win. He could finally get the Hurricanes over the hump and to an ACC title.

6. Florida: Are the Gators finally contenders again? A showdown at LSU in a couple of weeks will tell us more.

7. Oregon: We didn’t learn a ton about the Ducks in Week 1, but they’re a playoff team until proven otherwise.

8. Texas: Arch has to get better, right? With the Longhorns’ defense, even being a mid-tier SEC quarterback could be enough.

9. Notre Dame: Despite last night’s uneven performance against Miami, the Fighting Irish should be favored in every game the rest of season — and could win all of them.

10. Illinois: The scheduling gods did the Illini a favor — we only see one loss on their schedule (vs. Ohio State).

11. Arizona State (Big 12): The Big 12 is going to be an entertaining conference but will likely beat each other up so much that only one team earns a bid.

12. Tulane (American): South Florida had the most impressive Group of Six win, as the Bulls demolished Boise State, but Tulane has an easier path to the G6 bid because of an easier schedule.

6. Overtime

In the News 

• The Cowboys figured out how to give a defensive player a contract extension.

• CBS Sports grades college football teams after Week 1.

• McLaren’s Lando Norris (mechanical) and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton (separate crashes) didn’t finish F1’s Dutch Grand Prix, as championship leader Oscar Piastri extended his lead.

• The fashion world and tennis are colliding at the U.S. Open.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 11am: U.S. Open coverage begins on ESPN (switches to ESPN2 at 7pm)

• 1:10pm: Mets vs. Tigers on MLB Network

• 4:10pm: Phillies vs. Brewers on MLB Network

• 8pm: TCU vs. North Carolina on ESPN

• 9pm: Angel City FC vs. Bay FC on CBSSN

• 10pm: Sparks vs. Storm on NBA TV