In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Belichick’s embarrassing debut

2. Bets to Watch: Garrett Crochet has gone under today’s earned runs line in 7 of 12 home starts

3. NFL Preview: Ravens vs. Bills highlights Week 1

4. Public Bets: Bettors are flocking to the Fever tonight though Clark is still out

5. Power Rankings: Looking at the 10 best and 3 worst NFL teams to start the season

6. Overtime: 45-year-old Venus Williams is in the U.S. Open doubles quarterfinals

1. Leading Off

It’s hard to imagine how Bill Belichick’s debut at North Carolina could have gone worse. With the attention of the college football world on him and a team made up of 70 new players, Belichick not only consistently fumbled with the buttons on his headset, he looked dazed as his team was out-classed by unranked, but experienced, TCU.

After scoring on the first drive of the game, UNC went over two hours without completing a pass in the 48-14 loss. It was the most points a Belichick-coached team has ever allowed.

Maybe TCU is a juggernaut, or maybe this is a bigger rebuilding project than Belichick was hoping for when he chose coaching over riding off into retirement with TV and podcast appearances. The Tar Heels are “better than what we were [last night],” according to Belichick. With games against Charlotte and Richmond in the next two weeks, the spotlight will be off UNC as its legendary coach tries to figure out what to do with this team of newcomers.

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Mets Rookie Has Given Up 10 Hits While Striking Out 21 Batters 20.1 Innings

By Jack Dougherty

Mets moneyline first 5 innings (-128 at FanDuel)
Nolan McLean has been a godsend for the Mets since getting called up to the majors. The rookie right-hander has given up only 10 hits and two earned runs while striking out 21 batters in his first 20.1 innings as a pro. Sawyer Gipson-Long hasn’t been as effective with his 4.84 xERA, .285 xBA and 12.2% barrel rate. As for the offenses, the Mets rank fourth in MLB in OPS and third in wRC+ against righties over the last 10 days, while the Tigers rank 23rd and 22nd in that same span.

Garrett Crochet under 1.5 earned runs allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
This is a good opportunity to fade Cleveland’s struggling offense. Over the last two weeks, the Guardians rank dead last in MLB in batting average (.144), OPS (.433) and wRC+ (27) against left-handed pitching. Now they have to face Crochet, who’s gone under this line in seven of his 12 home starts this season. In his career against Guardians hitters, Crochet has given up a .100 batting average and a .192 xwOBA to go along with a 34.8% strikeout rate. 

Drew Rasmussen over 4.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)
Rasmussen’s success this season hasn’t come from racking up a ton of strikeouts, but he has cleared this line in six of his last seven starts. He’ll have a good chance to keep that streak going against a Mariners team that ranks 28th in MLB in whiff rate (27.6%) and 22nd in chase contact rate (22.2%). Since the start of August, Seattle also has the second-highest strikeout rate on the road (26.4%). In 55 plate appearances against Rasmussen, Mariners hitters have a 32.7% K rate. 

Cubs team total over 4.5 runs (+104 at FanDuel)
It’s not a bad idea to fade this Braves pitching staff right now. Starter Joey Wentz ranks in the 20th percentile in hard-hit rate (44.4%), the 29th percentile in pitching run value (-3) and the 15th percentile in walk rate (10.5%) this season. In 41 plate appearances against Wentz, Cubs hitters are batting .394 with .490 wOBA. As for the bullpen, it ranks last in MLB in ERA (6.60) and wOBA (.383) over the last two weeks. 

Jose Altuve 2+ hits + runs + RBIs (+100 at DraftKings)
There aren’t many hitters in MLB seeing left-handers as well as Altuve over the last month. Since the start of August, the Astros infielder is batting .323 and has a 1.045 OPS against southpaws. Max Fried might seem like a tough matchup, but the Yankees starter hasn’t been the same pitcher since the calendar flipped to July. Over the last two months, Fried has a 5.33 ERA and a .331 wOBA. Altuve is also 5-11 with a double and a home run in his career against Fried. 

Astros vs. Yankees over 7.5 runs (-120 at BetMGM)
We’re not done fading Fried just yet. In his 10 starts since July 1, he’s given up at least three earned runs in seven of them. Eight of those 10 games went over 7.5 runs with an average total of 11.3. Framber Valdez has also been struggling of late, as he’s given up 19 earned runs and 12 walks over his last five starts. Yankees hitters are batting .300 with a .372 xwOBA in 97 plate appearances against Valdez, making this a great spot to bet against both starting pitchers. 

Framber Valdez 2+ walks (-215 at DraftKings)
This is a hefty price to lay on a walks prop, but it should be higher based on Valdez’s recent command struggles and the matchup he’s facing on Tuesday. The Yankees have one of the most patient lineups in MLB, and they have the second-highest walk rate against left-handed pitching over the last month (11.5%). Valdez also has a career 11.3% walk rate against this lineup. The lefty has walked at least two batters in 16 of his 26 starts this season, and this is the toughest matchup he can face in that regard.

Michael Lorenzen over 4.5 strikeouts (-142 at FanDuel)
This is a great spot for Lorenzen, who’s gone over this line in four of his last five starts. The Royals right-hander couldn’t ask for a better matchup to make it five out of six, as the Angels are one of the worst teams in MLB at avoiding strikeouts. Los Angeles ranks last in chase contact rate (48.9%) and 29th in whiff rate (27.9%) this season. It also has the highest strikeout rate against righties over the last two weeks (30.3%). In 71 plate appearances against Lorenzen, Angels hitters have a 28.2% K rate. 

Rockies vs. Giants under 10.5 runs (-110 at BetMGM)
It’s always scary to take an under in a game at Coors Field, but there are a few reasons to trust both starting pitchers in this matchup. Logan Webb is built to succeed at Coors Field because he’s one of the best pitchers in the league at keeping the ball out of the air. His 54.2% ground-ball rate ranks in the 91st percentile of pitchers this season. Rockies hitters are also batting just .194 with a .287 xwOBA in 68 plate appearances against him. On the other side, the Giants rank 27th in OPS (.632) and 26th in wRC+ (77) against lefties over the last month, giving Kyle Freeland a puncher’s chance in this matchup. 

Adam Mazur 2+ walks (-110 at DraftKings)
Mazur’s biggest issue in his young MLB career has been his lack of control. The right-hander has walked a whopping 26 batters through his first 10 starts as a pro, hitting this line in seven of those starts. In two starts this season, Mazur has already walked five batters in just 9.2 innings of work. This price simply shouldn’t be this low.

3. NFL Preview

Week 1: Ravens vs. Bills Rematch, New-Look Packers’ D and Rodgers vs. the Jets

Each week during the NFL season, we’re giving you a breakdown of the top four matchups of the week along with a look at where bettors are early in the week for the rest of the games.

Four Games to Watch

1. Ravens vs. Bills (-1.5) (7:20pm on NBC): The last two MVPs clash in Sunday’s biggest matchup, with 2024 winner Josh Allen facing 2023’s Lamar Jackson. Allen totaled 41 touchdowns last season while becoming the only player in NFL history with 25-plus passing TDs, 10-plus rushing TDs and a receiving score. The Ravens dominated Buffalo 35-10 in Week 4 last year behind Derrick Henry’s 199-yard performance, but the Bills won 27-25 in the playoffs.

   1. The money is 50/50 but 62% of the bets are with Baltimore

2. Lions vs. Packers (-2.5) (4:25pm on CBS): The defending NFC North champions head to Green Bay to face a completely transformed Packers defense now featuring Micah Parsons. Aidan Hutchinson returns for Detroit after missing 12 games with a fractured tibia and fibula, with quarterback Jared Goff calling him a “monster” in training camp. The Packers jumped from 20-1 to 14-1 to win the Super Bowl after acquiring Parsons from the Cowboys.

   1. 72% of the money and 75% of the bets are with Detroit

3. Vikings (-1.5) vs. Bears (Monday, 8:15pm on ABC/ESPN): Second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy makes his NFL debut for Minnesota after missing his entire rookie season with a torn meniscus, while Caleb Williams enters his sophomore campaign having thrown for 3,541 yards and 20 touchdowns despite taking a league-high 68 sacks. New Bears head coach Ben Johnson has set the bar high for Williams, publicly stating a goal of 70% completion percentage after the quarterback posted 62.5% as a rookie. The Vikings finished 14-3 last season with Sam Darnold but chose not to keep him, instead committing to McCarthy as their franchise quarterback. They’ll be without suspended receiver Jordan Addison and dealing with injuries to Justin Jefferson and Jalen Nailor.

   1. 52% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Chicago

4. Steelers (-2.5) vs. Jets (1pm on CBS): This is more about the drama than anything else: The matchup features two quarterbacks facing their former teams as Aaron Rodgers makes his Pittsburgh debut against the Jets after they released him, while Justin Fields starts for New York after being benched in Pittsburgh despite a 4-2 record. Fields completed just 4 of 9 passes for 46 yards in limited preseason action, though coach Aaron Glenn remains “very confident” in his new quarterback. The Steelers defense ranked 11th in the latest rankings while the Jets fell to 24th.

   1. 81% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Pittsburgh

The Rest of the Schedule

• Cowboys vs. Eagles (-7.5) (Thursday, 8:20pm on NBC): 65% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• Chiefs (-3) vs. Chargers (Friday, 8pm on YouTube): 58% of the money and 58% of the bets are with KC

• Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Falcons (1pm on FOX): 51% of the money is with Atlanta but 66% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• Bengals (-5.5) vs. Browns (1pm on FOX): 83% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Cincinnati

• Dolphins vs. Colts (-1.5) (1pm on CBS): 81% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Miami

• Raiders vs. Patriots (-3) (1pm on CBS): 54% of the money is with New England but 52% of the bets are with Las Vegas

• Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Saints (1pm on CBS): 81% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Arizona

• Giants vs. Commanders (-6) (1pm on FOX): 52% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Washington

• Panthers vs. Jaguars (-3) (1pm on FOX): 54% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Jacksonville

• Titans vs. Broncos (-7.5) (4:05pm on FOX): 87% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Denver

• 49ers (-2.5) vs. Seahawks (4:05pm on FOX): 84% of the money and 63% of the bets are with San Francisco

• Texans vs. Rams (-2.5) (4:25pm on CBS): 58% of the money and 56% of the bets are with Houston

4. Public Bets

Djokovic is the Bettors’ Favorite to Go 11-0 Against American Fritz

MLB

• Blue Jays (-105) vs. Reds: 59% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Toronto

• Marlins (-108) vs. Nationals (-112): 58% of the money is with Washington but 54% of the bets are with Miami

• Mariners (-108) vs. Rays: 52% of the money and 56% of the bets are with Seattle

• Athletics (-105) vs. Cardinals (-115): 61% of the money is with the Athletics but 51% of the bets are with St. Louis

• Yankees (-119) vs. Astros: 89% of the money and 73% of the bets are with New York

WNBA

• Liberty (-6) vs. Valkries: 68% of the money is with Golden State but 56% of the bets are with New York

• Fever (+6.5) vs. Mercury: 71% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Indiana

Tennis

• Alex de Minaur (-150) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (+120): 61% of the money is with FAA but 55% of the bets are with de Minaur

• Taylor Fritz (+135) vs. Novak Djokovic (-175): 62% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Djokovic

• Naomi Osaka (-200) vs. Karolina Muchova (+160): 92% of the money and 85% of the bets are with Osaka

5. Power Rankings

Sportmoney NFL Power Rankings: Our Top 10 Teams to Start the Season

Preseason rankings are tough, but we’re going to try it anyway. Each week going forward we’ll give you our top 10 teams in the NFL along with the three teams most likely to get the No. 1 pick next year (also known as the league’s worst team).

Top 10 Teams

1. Ravens: Led by two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, Baltimore is the favorite to win the Super Bowl for good reason.

2. Bills: Josh Allen aims to become the first back-to-back MVP since Aaron Rodgers in 2020-21 and has more offensive continuity than in the past.

3. Eagles: The defending Super Bowl champions enter with +700 odds to repeat, but did they lose too much talent?

4. Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes is determined to bounce back from his Super Bowl loss by emphasizing more explosive plays and figuring out how to get more out of Travis Kelce.

5. Lions: Detroit boasts a defense that NFL coaches believe could be elite if healthy, anchored by Aidan Hutchinson’s return from injury as he chases both Defensive Player of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year.

6. Packers: Micah Parsons’ arrival transforms Green Bay’s defense after signing the richest non-quarterback contract in NFL history, making him the new DPOY favorite at +500 odds.

7. 49ers: Despite 2024 struggles that saw them finish 6-11, injuries were the primary factor — so they should bounce back this year and have a good shot to win the division, at worst.

8. Commanders: Jayden Daniels enters his second season as a potential top-5 quarterback in the NFL, so he won’t surprise anyone this year.

9. Rams: Quarterback Matthew Stafford is expected to play through back issues as LA looks to build on their 2024 NFC West title, with the 37-year-old veteran seeking to extend his championship window in what could be his final season.

10. Bengals: Joe Burrow threw for 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns in 2024 and has elite weapons (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins) on offense, but can their defense improve?

No. 1 Pick Watch

1. Saints: New Orleans is starting a second-year QB and has a rookie backup, and are the undisputed leaders to begin the March for Arch … if that’s still a things after the Longhorn quarterback’s performance this weekend.

2. Browns: Kevin Stefanski has +750 odds to be the first head coach fired after a 3-14 season left the franchise with aging veterans, minimal depth at key positions, and a handful of average-looking quarterbacks that will compete with each other all season.

3. Giants: After cutting ties with quarterback Daniel Jones, the Giants enter 2025 with minimal veteran talent. Now they’ll face the consequences of years of poor roster construction that drove away franchise cornerstone Saquon Barkley to a division rival, where he immediately won a Super Bowl.

6. Overtime

In the News 

• Venus Williams is back in the U.S. Open quarterfinals at 45 years old, this time in doubles with partner Leylah Fernandez.

• New Packers defensive end Micah Parsons might need an injection to play this week.

• Breaking down the 2025 Ryder Cup teams.

• An NBA free agent is launching a professional skateboarding league.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 11:30am: U.S. Open coverage on ESPN through 11pm

• 7pm: Concacaf W Champions Cup on ESPN+ (Orlando Pride vs. Alajuelense followed by Alianza FC vs. Gotham FC)

• 8:10pm: Yankees vs. Astros on TBS

• 10pm: Fever vs. Mercury on NBA TV