In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: There’s a new No. 1

2. Bets to Watch: Alec Bohm has hit at least 1 single in 63% of games

3. NFL Fantasy: Dak Prescott’s return is worth a look

4. Public Bets: Bettors are confident in battle between two of WNBA’s worst

5. College Football: Five things to watch in Week 2

6. Overtime: The top up-and-comers in the NFL

1. Leading Off

The case against preseason college football polls was evident over the weekend, as only three teams in the AP Top 25 remained in the same spot after Week 1. Ohio State is unsurprisingly the new No. 1 after beating previous No. 1 Texas, which fell to 7th with worries about an ineffective offense. Penn State remained at No. 2, followed by LSU (won at Clemson), Georgia (beat Marshall), and Miami (upset Notre Dame). Clemson fell from 4th to 8th, while the Fighting Irish dropped from 6th to 9th. And South Carolina is now a top-10 team.

The biggest movers, also unsurprisingly, came from the Alabama-Florida State game. Alabama tumbled from 8th to 21st after its loss to the Seminoles, who jumped from unranked to 14th. The Crimson Tide now have their lowest ranking since the 2008 preseason (No. 24) but have two easy games and a bye week to get ready for a visit to No. 4 Georgia, when we’ll learn if game one was a fluke or the future for Alabama.

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Alonso Averages 3.3 H+R+R Over Past 10, Hit 4 Home Runs in Past 6 Games

By Todd Cordell

Luke Keaschall over 0.5 singles (+100 at FanDuel)
Keaschall has some of the most drastic splits you’ll see. He has hit .132 against left-handed pitchers yet boasts an absurd .400 average vs. righties. We’re still dealing with relatively small samples in his major league career but those numbers are telling. Keaschall has hit .333 against both the fastball and sinker, two of Yeondrys Gomez’ three go-to pitches when facing right-handed batters. That should bode well for Keaschall.

Pete Alonso over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-135 at DraftKings)
Alonso is one of the hottest hitters in the majors. He’s homered four times over the last six games and has averaged a healthy 3.3 H+R+R spanning his last 10. He now draws Casey Mize, who has struggled with right-handed hitters. Mize has given up 1.6 homers per nine innings against righties – he’s allowed 1.0 per nine vs. lefties – while also striking them out at a much lesser rate. Alonso also profiles well against Mize’s pitch mix. Alonso possesses a .281 ISO vs. the fastball, Mize’s most-used pitch, while he’s hit .328 against Mize’s No. 2 in the sinker. Alonso is 2-3 against Mize and his success should continue here.

Alejandro Kirk over 0.5 singles (-130 at FanDuel)
Kirk has hit .303 against right-handed pitchers this season but has only managed a .134 ISO. Put simply, he has strung together a lot of hits with little power. Nearly 77% of his hits vs. righties have gone for singles as a result. Kirk will face off against Zack Littell, who he knows well from inner-division battles while Littell was still with the Rays. That should play into his hands as the more a batter sees of a pitcher, the easier it is to adjust.

Alec Bohm over 0.5 singles (-145 at DraftKings)
Bohm has hit at least one single in 63% of his games this season. His success rate climbs to 65% when isolating road games. He’s on the road in Milwaukee today and has a good matchup against Jose Quintana. Bohm owns a .280 average against left-handed pitching this season and has hit .286 or higher against two of Quintana’s three most-used pitches. Having gone four straight without a single, this is a great spot for Bohm to rebound. 

Riley Greene over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-110 at Bet365)
Clay Holmes is having a nice season for the Mets but he’s been more hittable of late, allowing two runs or more in nine of his last 11 starts. He’s not untouchable and Riley Greene could cause him real problems. Holmes has six pitches he throws at least 6.9% of the time. The fastball – Holmes’ least used pitch – is the only one Greene owns an average below .267 against. Naturally, Greene has hit the most homers against it. There is no easy way for Holmes to attack Greene, making it more likely the hitter wins out in this battle.

Addison Barger over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-115 at DraftKings)
It has not been a good run for Barger, who hasn’t homered since The Stone Age and has averaged just 0.8 H+R+R over the last 10. The good news is he couldn’t profile any better against Littell. He most frequently throws the splitter against left-handed bats, which should have Barger very excited. Barger owns a .353 average and .588 ISO against splitters thrown by righties this season. Barger also has a .253 ISO vs. the slider, Littell’s No. 2 pitch, so he could still do damage even if Littell tries to shy away from that pitch.

Shane Bieber over 5.5 strikeouts (-118 at FanDuel)
Have you had enough Jays bets? No? Good, because we have one more up our sleeve with Shane Bieber. He has piled up the strikeouts since returning to the rotation, averaging 11.9 per nine innings of work. The Reds have struck out in close to 25% of their at bats against righties over the last 15 days so the matchup is nice. The Jays also got just two innings out of Jose Berrios on Tuesday, forcing them to run their bullpen into the ground. They might push Bieber for a little more length in this one, giving him extra opportunities to pile up the Ks.

Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 total bases (+130 at Bet365)
Schwarber is another Phillies player with a great profile against Quintana. He has a solid .276 average in head-to-head matchup, which is well above the .245 he’s hit this season – and we all know how much damage he’s dished out along the way. Quintana leans on the sinker, slurve, and fastball against left-handed bats. Schwarber has ISOs of .442 or higher against the sinker as well as the fastball. If he’s able to lay off the slurves and force Quintana into throwing something he’s better equipped to hit, the ball may never land.

Seiya Suzuki over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120 at DraftKings)
Suzuki hasn’t hit for much power of late but he appears to be finding his swing again. He’s cleared this line in four of the past five games, averaging 2.4 H+R+R along the way. He has a mouthwatering matchup against Bryce Elder, who has a near 6 ERA and has allowed three runs or more in eight of the last 12. Elder most prominently throws the sinker, which Suzuki has excelled against in terms of average and generating power. 

Brent Rooker over 1.5 total bases (-120 at Bet365)
Rooker is a menace to society when facing left-handed pitching. He owns a .311 average, .246 ISO, and nearly half of his hits have gone for extra bases. He will see Matthew Liberatore, a low strikeout pitcher – especially vs. righties – who gives up noticeably more power against hitters of Rooker’s handedness. Rooker has piled up 11 bases over the last five games and his success should continue here.

3. NFL Fantasy Insights

Ward Faces Tough Opening Game Against One of NFL’s Top Returning Defenses

By Chris Farley

Saquon Barkley ⬆️
The Dallas Cowboys had plenty of issues last season, none more obvious than their run defense. Dallas was 28th in rush yards per carry allowed, 29th in rush yards allowed per game, and the worst team in the NFL in preventing rushing touchdowns. Dallas added Dante Fowler, but he's not as proficient against the run, and they just lost one of the best defensive players in the NFL, edge-expert Micah Parsons. This is a game that profiles as a lost cause for Dallas if they can't put up a bunch of points, since the Eagles' offense is notoriously efficient. We think Philadelphia will play keep-away, which means an emphasis on their run game, and the league's best runner (1st in carries, 1st in rush yards in 2024) will benefit the most.

Dak Prescott ⬆️
A probable Philadelphia win notwithstanding, Dak Prescott must be dying to get back on the field. After a frustrating injury sidelined him in the middle of last season, one of the league's most prolific passers returns. And this time he'll be equipped with two deadly wide-receivers, mainstay CeeDee Lamb and newcomer George Pickens, who's a dangerous deep threat at all times. Throw in Jake Ferguson at tight end and the Cowboys have one of the most formidable groups of pass catchers in the league. We expect Dallas to be catching up to the reigning champions all game, which means the ball will be in Dak's hands plenty. Lastly, Philadelphia's defensive losses are well-documented. 

Justin Herbert ⬇️
The Chargers enter another season with Jim Harbaugh, and they're eager to see even better results. Offensively they upgraded their offensive line and own a new pair of running backs, but Joshua Palmer, who steadily gave highlight reel moments for the Bolts, is off to Buffalo. It remains to be seen if Ladd McConkey and an older Keenan Allen can prove formidable, but last year Herbert and company weren't overly impressive through the air (17th in completion percentage, 19th in pass yards per game). Meanwhile, Kansas City held Herbert to just 392 yards in two contests. Fueled after a Super Bowl loss where their defense gave up a tidal wave of offense, we don't like Herbert's chances.

Baker Mayfield ⬆️
We feel sorry for the Atlanta Falcons' defense. Of course Atlanta could suddenly turn into a top-tier unit, but there's no evidence to suggest they will. They lost their best pass-rusher in Grady Jarrett and signed linebacker Leonard Flloyd, whose performance has declined the last few seasons. Their secondary has exceptional talent that has yet to bud into their best, and most of their linebacking crew are no-names. Somehow, they beat Tampa twice last season. Mistakes from the Bucs and some Kirk Cousins' magic helped, but Baker Mayfield is bringing the NFL's deepest roster of pass-catchers and they're out for revenge. Light 'em up, Baker!

Justin Fields ⬇️
We don't think it's a stretch to say that Justin Fields has yet to prove himself as a formidable passer. Yes, the 26-year-old had some great moments in his career, mostly in his first tenure with Chicago, but overall he has consistently demonstrated mistake-prone, volatile tendencies. In his best year with the Bears (2023), he threw a 61.4% completion percentage for just 197 yards per game. On Sunday the new-look Jets will battle one of the NFL's premiere defenses. Pittsburgh is loaded with the league's most talented front-seven and a wholly upgraded secondary, signing Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay, two of the best cover-corners on Earth. This is a terribly tough opener for the Jets' new starter.

Brian Burns ⬆️
The New York Giants have done more to upgrade their pass-rushing talent than any NFL program the last two seasons. This offseason they drafted a freak athlete in Penn State's Abdul Carter with the third overall pick, a player who we see as a breakout star waiting to happen. Overall their front-seven is one of the most talented in the league, anchored by nose tackle Dexter Lawrence, But it was the addition of Brian Burns that really sparked the Giants into a different defense last season, a smart linebacker and natural leader who already earned 8.5 sacks in his inaugural season with Big Blue. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have plenty of hype, but we like Burns to capitalize thanks to a ferocious group around him. 

Spencer Rattler ⬇️
One of the teams we like the least entering the 2025 NFL season is the New Orleans Saints, and that's largely because of their offense. The Saints will enter Week 1 with Rattler under center, which we don't feel great about. Rattler had some of the worst marks of any quarterback in the NFL in seven games last season, throwing just 57% for four touchdowns and five interceptions. Meanwhile, Arizona upgraded their defensive line significantly, adding Josh Sweat and Dalvin Tomlinson, and we believe in defensive guru Jonathon Gannon in his third year with the Cardinals. In short, Rattler hasn't shown a keen ability to adapt, and we think Saints' new coach, Kellen Moore, might be in over his head.

Joe Flacco ⬆️
If the preseason is any indication, the Bengals are going to incur the exact same issues that they did last season. On paper, Cincinnati profiles as one of the worst defenses in the NFL, even after signing star edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. A group that was 25th in yards and points per game last season (along with the NFL's third worst red-zone marks), Cincinnati's defense will need to contend with an ageless Joe Flacco, who just keeps getting starting gigs even at 40 years old. This season marks the third straight year where Flacco has moved to a new team, although he was with Cleveland in 2023. With every outfit he's produced, averaging a healthy 246 yards per game, and often with supar options at wide-receiver. Sunday beckons another great opportunity.

Cam Ward ⬇️
Week 1 must be an anxiety-provoking spot for any starting rookie quarterback, but we can't imagine a more difficult situation than what awaits Cam Ward. The former Miami star has shown poise and maturity on and off the field already, but he'll be battling one of the league's best defenses, on the road, at elevation, in his first NFL moment. Last season Denver surprised many by becoming the stingiest defense in the NFL, 1st in opponent points per play and red-zone success. They got better in the offseason, signing one of the best linebackers in Dre Greenlaw and enigmatic safety Talanoa Hufanga. They'll also have the benefit of a raucous home crowd. We don't like anything about this opener for Ward.

Lamar Jackson ⬆️
Although Baltimore lost the playoff battle at Orchard Park in the AFC's Divisional Round, they nearly doubled the Bills in total yards in two meetings last season. The majority of that was thanks to one of the NFL's true superstars, Lamar Jackson, who alone earned 503 yards, four passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown against Buffalo last season. If their first meeting wasn't virtually over after the first half (the Ravens were up 21-3 at home), we bet he would have done even more. Jackson's 41 passing touchdowns were second overall last season, and Buffalo's cornerback room is hurting; their first round draft pick is on IR while corners Tre'Davious White and Christian Benford aren't practicing.

4. Public Bets

81% of the Moneyline Money is With Milwaukee Today

MLB

• Marlins (-136) vs. Nationals (+116): 67% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Miami

• Mets (-115) vs. Tigers (-105): 58% of the money is with Detroit but 54% of the bets are with New York

• Rangers (+112) vs. Diamondbacks (-137): 93% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Arizona

• Mariners (-137) vs. Rays (+112): 86% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Seattle

• Phillies (-105) vs. Brewers (-115): 81% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Athletics (-110) vs. Cardinals (-110): 93% of the money and 66% of the bets are with the Athletics

• Yankees (-126) vs. Astros (+104): 54% of the money is with the Astros but 71% of the bets are with the Yankees

WNBA

• Sparks vs. Dream (-6.5): 79% of the money and 57% of the best are with Los Angeles

• Sun (+1) vs. Sky: 95% of the money and 89% of the bets are with Connecticut

Tennis

• Alex de Minaur (-150) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (+120): 53% of the money and 51% of the bets are with de Minaur

• Naomi Osaka (-250) vs. Karolina Muchova (+200): 71% of the money and 85% of the bets are with Osaka

5. College Football

Only Matchup Between Ranked Teams Puts Spotlight on Michigan’s True Freshman QB

1. Underwood’s First Road Test: Michigan’s true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood looked comfortable at home, completing 21 of 31 passes for 251 yards and a touchdown against New Mexico. But a game in Norman presents a different beast entirely. The Sooners defense smothered Illinois State for just three points while John Mateer was busy breaking Baker Mayfield’s debut record with 392 passing yards. Underwood hasn’t seen anything like the pressure Oklahoma can bring or the noise that’ll rain down from the stands.

2. Becht’s Record-Setting Precision: Iowa State’s Rocco Becht was surgical against South Dakota, completing 19 of 20 passes for 278 yards and three touchdowns to set a school record with 95% accuracy. Meanwhile, Iowa’s defense made Albany quarterback Mark Gronowski look lost, limiting him to just 44 passing yards before cramping knocked him out early. Becht thrives on timing and rhythm, but Iowa’s defense specializes in disrupting both with gap discipline and hits that arrive right on schedule.

3. Illinois’ Pass Rush Against Duke’s Offensive Line: Gabe Jacas wasted no time making his presence felt for Illinois, collecting five tackles, two sacks and a forced fumble against Western Illinois. Duke’s offensive line has been a strength, allowing only 12 sacks all of last season to rank among the nation’s best. But there were warning signs in their opener when Elon managed to drop Darian Mensah twice despite the quarterback throwing for 389 yards.

4. Dakorien Moore Steps Into the Spotlight: With Evan Stewart sidelined by a torn patellar tendon, Oregon’s receiving corps has been thrust into the hands of true freshman Dakorien Moore and a group of newly elevated pass-catchers. Moore flashed potential against Montana State, making catches and showing he’s not afraid to block. Oklahoma State’s secondary had a mediocre pass defense last season, giving up 285.6 yards per game. That creates opportunities for Moore and Oregon’s other receivers to prove they can fill the void left by Stewart’s absence.

5. Leavitt Under the Microscope: Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt put up solid numbers against Northern Arizona, going 25 of 39 for 257 yards and two touchdowns — while adding 73 rushing yards and another score on the ground. But Mississippi State linebacker Nic Mitchell knows exactly what’s coming. He’s talked about keeping Leavitt trapped in the pocket, where the quarterback loses much of his effectiveness. The Bulldogs have seen plenty of dual-threat quarterbacks in the SEC, and they’ll test whether Leavitt can beat them with his arm when his legs are taken away.

6. Overtime

In the News 

• CBS Sports breaks down the top up-and-comers in the NFL.

• Ohio State, as expected, is the new No. 1 after knocking off Texas over the weekend (the Longhorns fell to 7th).

• Clemson coach Dabo Swinney gave LSU a low grade despite his team losing to them.

• Jannik Sinner bettors beware: Drake put $300,000 on him to win the U.S. Open.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 11:30am: U.S. Open coverage begins on ESPN (through 11pm)

• 1:10pm: Mets vs. Tigers on MLB Network

• 8:10pm: Yankees vs. Astros on MLB Network/Prime Video