In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Chiefs begin campaign for 4th straight Super Bowl appearance

2. Bets to Watch: Boise State (-29.5) looks to rebound after embarrassing Week 1

3. Head to Head: A look at the U.S. Open men’s semifinal matches

4. Public Money: Bettors are split on Liberty vs. Storm

5. Season Preview: Insights on AFC futures to watch

6. Overtime: The Cowboys’ rival that wanted Micah Parsons

1. Leading Off

The Chiefs and Chargers kick off at 8 p.m. ET tonight in São Paulo, Brazil, where both AFC West teams face early season questions despite their playoff ambitions. The Chiefs are looking for their eighth straight win in the series, but Patrick Mahomes will be without key receivers Rashee Rice (suspended) and rookie Jalen Royals (knee), meaning he’ll be leaning on Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy.

Jim Harbaugh is back for Year 2 after leading the Chargers to an 11-6 record and playoff berth in 2024. Running back Najee Harris, who suffered a superficial eye injury in a July fireworks accident and missed all of training camp, is expected to start — but rookie Omarion Hampton should see significant time. Los Angeles boasted the NFL’s best scoring defense last season, allowing just 301 points, but on the offensive side has averaged just 14 points against the Chiefs in the past four matchups.

• Spread — Chiefs (-3, -115), Chargers (+3, -105): 68% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Kansas City

• Moneyline — Chiefs -166, Chargers +140: 75% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Kansas City

• Total (46.5) — Over -112, Under -108: 54% of the money and 52% of the bets are on the over

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Ohtani Racked Up 11 Bases Over Past 3 Games

By Todd Cordell

Brice Turang over 0.5 singles (-130 at Bet365)
Turang has enjoyed a bit of a power surge of late but singles have been his bread and butter all season long. He’s hit at least one in 58.2% of all appearances and close to 60% of his road games. He has a nice matchup Friday against Johan Oviedo, who is fastball-first against left-handed hitters. Turang’s average against the fastball is higher than any other pitch in Oviedo’s arsenal, setting him up well for success.

James Wood over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-120 at DraftKings)
Javier Assad will be taking the bump for the Cubs on Friday afternoon, which should be a plus for James Wood. Assad heavily features the cutter, sinker, and fastball, throwing the cutter and sinker most frequently. It just so happens those are the two pitches Wood has the best metrics against. He is hitting .310 with a .343 ISO against right-handed cutters while posting a .318 average and .243 ISO vs. the sinker. Wood has really picked it up of late and we don’t see him slowing down in a matchup perfectly suited for his strengths.

Chase Meidroth over 0.5 singles (+105 at DraftKings)
Meidroth is hitting a solid .258 on the season but boasts an ISO of just .073. Put simply, he’s stringing together plenty of hits but generating next to no power. He’s actually ramped things up another level of late, hitting .283 over the past couple of weeks with a 0% barrel rate. That’s a perfect storm for singles. Meidroth has at least one single in 59% of his games and 58.6% when facing off against a right-handed starter. 

Alejandro Kirk over 0.5 singles (-115 at DraftKings)
Kirk has piled up the singles as efficiently as almost anybody. He’s hit a single in 57.1% of his appearances, 61.8% of his away games, and 61% of his games against right-handed starting pitchers. He has only hit singles in two of his five games but has a good chance of getting back on track in this game. Right-handed pitcher Cam Schittler throws the fastball just under 54% of the time. The cutter is by far his favored secondary pitch, using it 25.2% of the time. That plays into the hands of Kirk, who owns a .316 average against the fastball and has hit .294 against cutters. With a lack of speed, Kirk would really have to get a hold of one to get extra bases. 

Giancarlo Stanton over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+100 at DraftKings)
Stanton is having a resurgent season for the Yankees. He’s at his best against right-handed pitching, owning a .292 average and .358 ISO to date. He draws a righty who has given up a lot of hard contact to right-handed bats in Kevin Gausman. As a fastball reliant pitcher, Guasman is not well equipped to slow down Stanton. The veteran slugger has hit .321 with an ISO approaching .400 against the fastball. Given how well Stanton performs against that pitch, it should be no surprise Stanton owns a .296 average and .370 ISO against Guasman — who he has seen a lot of over the years. As a cherry on top, Stanton is 16-37 (.432 average) against relievers in the Blue Jays’ bullpen. He is likely to do real damage in this spot.

Riley Greene over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-115 at DraftKings)
This is an awesome spot for Greene. He has dominated right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .286 with an ISO of .296. Incredible outputs. He draws Shane Smith, who is likely to have a difficult time getting Greene out. Smith has allowed drastically more power vs. left-handed bats than righties. His ISO spikes from .101 vs. righties to .195 against lefties like Greene. His home run rate also soars from 0.6 per nine innings to 1.6. Greene has the favorable splits and owns ISOs of .212 or higher against everything Smith throws. 

Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (-130 at Bet365)
There is a lot to love with this one. Ohtani has averaged 2.4 total bases per game and cleared this line at a clip 10% higher in away games than home games. Orioles starter Dean Kremer has given up a higher average and more power to left-handed bats than righties. The pitch mix is right in Ohtani’s wheelhouse as well. He has posted a .252 ISO or higher – and hit at least four homers – against every pitch Kremer throws. After a bit of a quiet spell, Ohtani has responded with 11 bases over his last three. Expect him to build on that Friday night.

CFB

James Madison vs. Louisville under 55.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
James Madison put up 45 points in their Week 1 win but that came at home against Weber State. They also only managed 130 yards through the air and turned the ball over two times. They’re likely to have a much tougher time moving the ball on the road against Louisville, who ranked 5th in EPA allowed per pass last week. Louisville also graded out better on the ground than through the air offensively and are likely to attack James Madison heavily that way in this matchup. That should help them control the ball and chew a lot of clock, helping this game stay under the number.

Isaac Brown over 95.5 rushing yards (-115 at Bet365)
Brown opened the season with a bang, running wild on Eastern Kentucky in a blowout win. He piled up 126 yards and a pair of touchdowns despite being pulled from the game just 20 minutes in. Louisville was favored by 37.5 in that game so it was clear Louisville wouldn’t need to put much on Brown’s plate. He should see a much larger workload this time around with Louisville more modest 14.5 point favorites. Brown averaged more than seven yards per carry last season and is extremely efficient. If his carry total goes well into the double digits — his attempt line sits at 16.5 — he should have no problem going over this number.

Boise State -29.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
The Broncos laid an egg in their opener against South Florida, scoring just seven points and fumbling five times (three were lost). They will be looking to get back on track with a dominant win and they have a great opportunity to get that on home soil against Eastern Washington. They were gashed against Incarnate Ward in Week 1, giving up nearly 500 yards of offense. They’re unlikely to have any answers for an angry Broncos team that wins double digit games nearly every season.

3. Head to Head

Sinner and Alcaraz Face One More Hurdle Before a Potential 1 vs. 2 Finals Matchup

The U.S. Open men’s semifinals take place this afternoon, with underdog Novak Djokovic looking to make it back to the final and capture his record-extending 25th Grand Slam title and Felix Auger-Aliassime making an exceptionally surprising final four appearance. Both of them have a problem, though, as they face the best two men’s tennis players in the world in Carlos Alcaraz (Djokovic) and Jannik Sinner (Auger-Aliassime).

No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz vs. No. 7 Novak Djokovic
3pm ET on ESPN

• Moneyline: Alcaraz -375, Djokovic +290

  • 57% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Alcaraz

• Total (38.5 Games): Over -110, Under -120

• Game Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 (-136), Djokovic +4.5 (+104)

Matchup

• Djokovic leads the all-time head-to-head 5-3. He’s won the last two times they’ve played: earlier this year in the Australian Open quarterfinal and last year in the Paris Olympics final. Djokovic has won four of the past five meetings dating back to 2023. They’ve never played at the U.S. Open.

No. 1 Jannik Sinner vs. No. 25 Felix Auger-Aliassime
7pm ET on ESPN

• Moneyline: Sinner -3500, Auger-Aliassime +1280

  • 82% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Sinner

• Total (30.5 Games): Over -116, Under -118

• Game Spread: Sinner -8.5 (+132), Auger-Aliassime +8.5 (-182)

Matchup

• Auger-Aliassime has won two of three matchups, but Sinner won 6-0, 6-2 in Cincinnati a few weeks ago. The Canadian’s last win against the now-No. 1 player in the world was in Cincinnati in 2022. They haven’t met at the U.S. Open.

5. Public Money

Four Unranked Double-Digit Favorites Make Up Tonight’s CFP Slate

MLB

• Mets (-120) vs. Reds (-102): 54% of the money and 64% of the bets are with New York

• Mariners (+117) vs. Braves (-142): 65% of the money is with Seattle but 54% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Guardians (+118) vs. Rays (-144): 83% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• Giants (-101) vs. Cardinals (-120): 65% of the money and 59% of the bets are with San Francisco

• Red Sox (-136) vs. Diamondback (+112): 95% of the money and 68% of the bets are with the Red Sox

CFB

• James Madison vs. Louisville (-14.5): 58% of the money is with James Madison but 55% of the bets are with Louisville

• Northern Illinois vs. Maryland (-16.5): 61% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Maryland

• Western Illinois vs. Northwestern (-27.5): 69% of the money is with Northwestern but 52% of the bets are with Western Illinois

• Eastern Washington vs. Boise State (-29.5): 94% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Boise State

WNBA

• Sparks vs. Dream (-5.5): 82% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Sky (+11.5) vs. Fever: 56% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Chicago

• Liberty vs. Storm (-1.5): 63% of the money is with Seattle but 53% of the bets are with New York

5. Season Preview

AFC: Chiefs Odds to Win Division, Super Bowl Are Creating a Buyers’ Market

By Jack Dougherty

Chiefs to win AFC West (-110 at FanDuel)
Fading the Chiefs with a different team in the AFC West seems to be a sexy handicap this offseason. Thankfully for us, it’s created a buy point on the most consistent machine in the NFL. The Chiefs have won at least 11 games in all seven of Patrick Mahomes’ seasons as the starter. Last we checked, Mahomes is still the starting quarterback. Andy Reid, who’s won double-digit games in each of the last 10 seasons, is still the head coach. Steve Spagnuolo, the top defensive coordinator in the NFL, is still calling the shots on defense. Keep riding the Chiefs until they give you a reason not to.

Chiefs to win Super Bowl (+850 at DraftKings)
Seriously, what are we doing here? What have the Bills and Ravens done to deserve a lower Super Bowl price than the Chiefs? All Mahomes has done is his seven years as the starter is make the AFC Championship seven times and the Super Bowl five times. You can never guarantee a futures bet is going to age well in value, but a Chiefs Super Bowl ticket is the closest you’re going to get. If you pencil in Kansas City for another conference championship appearance, its Super Bowl odds will be closer to +175 at that point. 

Buffalo Bills to be #1 seed (+270 at FanDuel)
The NFL sure did the Bills a favor with their 2025 schedule. Buffalo has the fifth-easiest schedule based on preseason win totals, and it couldn’t have asked for a better split of home and away games. The toughest games on the schedule come against the Ravens, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Bengals and Eagles. Somehow, all five will be held at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo also gets easy non-divisional games against the Saints, Panthers and Browns. With six games against the poor AFC East, the Bills could finish with 13 or 14 wins this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs (+170 at DraftKings)
The Jaguars have enough pieces to be competitive in the wide-open AFC South. It’s all about whether or not Trevor Lawrence can take the next step in his career, and this is his best chance with Liam Coen taking over the offense. Baker Mayfield put up a career-high 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns in Coen’s offense last season, adding to the lore that the 39-year-old is one of the top offensive minds in the NFL. If he can coach Lawrence to a breakout year in 2025, the Jags will be a playoff team. 

Cincinnati Bengals under 3.5 division wins (-120 at DraftKings)
It doesn’t matter how good your offense is in the NFL if your defense can’t stop a nosebleed. The Bengals proved that last season when they went 9-8 despite Joe Burrow leading the league in passing yards and Ja’Marr Chase winning the Triple Crown. Cincinnati’s defense ranked 30th in success rate and 27th in EPA/play, and the front office didn’t make any significant improvements to the unit this offseason. The Ravens have won four straight against the Bengals while averaging 34.3 points per game. The Steelers are a tough matchup due to their elite defense. The Browns are inferior, but Zac Taylor is 1-11 in Week 1 and Week 2 in his six years with the Bengals. 

Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs (-110 at FanDuel)
Coaching can go a long way in the NFL, and we trust Jim Harbaugh to lead his team to the playoffs even in a tough division. In Year 2 at Michigan, Harbaugh led the Wolverines to a 10-3 record and an Orange Bowl appearance. In his second year with the 49ers, he went 11-4-1 and made the Super Bowl. Once Harbaugh settles into a new coaching gig, he can work his magic. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter was fantastic in Year 1, so this could be one of the best defensive units in the NFL in 2025. 

Tennessee Titans over 5.5 wins (-140 at FanDuel)
The Titans were a disaster in 2024, but most of that was due to Will Levis and his league-worst 34 turnovers. The upgrade to No. 1 overall draft pick Cam Ward will make an immediate difference for Tennessee, and the crucial additions of Kevin Zeitler and Dan Moore on the offensive line will give this offense a huge boost. The defense, led by linemen T’Vondre Sweat and Jeffrey Simmons, cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and safety Amani Hooker, ranked third in the NFL in yards allowed per game last year. The Titans also have the eighth-easiest schedule in the league and play in a cupcake division.

6. Overtime

In the News 

• Caitlin Clark is out for the rest of the WNBA season.

• The keys to a potential Eagles’ repeat.

• Bill Belichick has banned his former team from scouting his current players.

• A Raiders veteran wide receiver has retired just nine days after signing with the team.

• The Cowboys reportedly had no interest in trading Micah Parsons to the Eagles.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: U.S. Open men’s semifinals begin on ESPN

• 7:05pm: Blue Jays vs. Yankees on MLB Network

• 7:30pm: Northern Illinois vs. Maryland on Big Ten Network

• 7:30pm: Sparks vs. Dream or Sky vs. Fever on ION (followed by Liberty vs. Storm at 10pm)

• 8pm: Chiefs vs. Chargers on YouTube