In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: J.J. McCarthy won again

2. Bets to Watch: Insights on 10 MLB and golf bets

3. NFL Preview: Less than 12% of teams make the playoffs after starting 0-2

4. Public Money: Where the early Week 2 bettors are starting

5. Power Rankings: Bills grab the top spot, Dolphins fall into bottom 3

6. Overtime: Looking forward to February 2031 in Chicago

1. Leading Off

Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is a winner. After last night’s comeback victory over the Bears, the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft improved his record to 64-3 dating back to his sophomore year in high school. McCarthy went 27-1 at Michigan, the best winning percentage by any college quarterback since 1971.

Then in his NFL debut on Monday Night Football yesterday, he became the first quarterback to score three fourth-quarter touchdowns in his first game. McCarthy is also the first Vikings quarterback to throw multiple touchdowns in his NFL opener since 1961, when Vikings Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton accomplished the feat.

The 22-year-old hadn’t played a competitive football game since winning the national championship on January 8, 2024, after missing last year due to a season-ending injury in the preseason. But after throwing for just 48 yards in the first half, McCarthy led touchdown drives on three straight possessions in the 4th quarter to give the Vikings the win.

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Suarez Stuck Out 17 In Past 18 Innings, Gave Up Just 1 Earned Run During Stretch

By Jack Dougherty

Kyle Bradish 6+ strikeouts (-160 at DraftKings)
It’s a small sample size, but Bradish has already racked up 15 strikeouts in his first two starts in 2025, and one of those starts came against the stingy Padres. The Orioles right-hander has a whopping 39.5% strikeout rate and a 34.8% whiff rate through 10.0 innings of work. This is also a golden matchup against the Pirates, which have the third-highest strikeout rate against righties this month (28.9%).

Phillies vs. Mets under 8.5 runs (-110 at BetMGM)
The Phillies could be in trouble offensively going forward. With Trea Turner and Alec Bohm hitting the injured list, Philadelphia had to start Max Kepler at cleanup and scored only one run in Monday’s shutout win against the Mets. Although Sean Manaea has struggled of late, this is a good spot for him to have a solid outing with multiple Phillies backups in the starting lineup. On the other side, Ranger Suarez has found a groove with just one earned run and 17 strikeouts in his last 18 innings of work. Mets hitters have just a .201 batting average and a .286 xwOBA in 168 plate appearances against Suarez.

Marlins vs. Nationals both teams to score 2+ runs — first 5 innings (+110 at DraftKings)
This is a prime spot to fade both starting pitchers. Starting with Mitchell Parker, the left-hander ranks in the second percentile this season in xERA (5.97) and xBA (.305) and the first percentile in hard-hit rate (50.8%). In 57 plate appearances against Parker, Marlins hitters have a .331 xBA and a .439 xwOBA. Adam Mazur has also struggled in this matchup, as Nationals hitters are batting .371 with a .411 wOBA in 36 plate appearances against him. The right-hander just faced this lineup last week and gave up 10 hits and five runs in 6.0 innings.

Luis Garcia under 3.5 Ks (+125 at DraftKings)
Garcia returned to the MLB mound last week for the first time since 2023 and racked up six strikeouts against the Angels. The right-hander recorded a 38.6% whiff rate in the game, but it couldn’t have come against an easier matchup. Garcia could get a dose of reality against the Blue Jays, which have the lowest whiff rate (21.3%) and the highest chase contact rate (63.6%) in MLB this year. 

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline (+125 at BetMGM)
Robbie Ray is having a better season than Zac Gallen, but these two starting pitchers are going in opposite directions right now. Ray has given up 19 hits and 13 earned runs in his last three starts, and two of them came against the Rockies and Orioles. As for Gallen, he’s been lights out with only one earned run and 20 strikeouts in his last 18.0 innings of work. The Diamondbacks also have the fourth-highest OPS (.808) against lefties over the last three weeks. 

German Marquez over 5.5 hits allowed (-125 at DraftKings)
This number is too low for Marquez, who ranks in the fourth percentile in xBA (.297) and the sixth percentile in average exit velocity (91.3 mph) this season. The Rockies right-hander has given up at least six hits in 15 of his 22 starts this year. He’s also given up 12 hits and seven earned runs in just 4.2 innings of work against the Dodgers this season. In 171 plate appearances against Marquez, Dodgers hitters have a .279 xBA and a .369 xwOBA. 

Golf: Procore Championship

Russell Henley top-10 finish (+160 at FanDuel)
After the shortest offseason in sports, the PGA Tour is already back with the start of the FedEx Fall at the Procore Championship. Formerly the Fortinet Championship, this is a birdie fest played on a scoreable resort course in Napa Valley. Due to the short par 4s and tight, tree-lined fairways, shorter hitters who thrive with their accuracy and iron play can succeed here. Enter Henley, who finished the 2025 season with five top-10 finishes in his last seven starts. The American ranks third in the field in distance from edge of fairway and 15th in approaches from 100-150 yards over the last six months. 

Cameron Young top-20 finish (+100 at FanDuel)
Speaking of players who finished the 2025 season strong, Young capped off his year with a win at the Wyndham Championship and three top-11 finishes in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. He gained strokes from off the tee, on approach and putting in all four of those starts. Young is built perfectly for a gettable course like Silverado, as he ranks fifth in the field in birdie or better percentage and eighth in bogey avoidance over the last two months. 

Jackson Koivun top-20 finish (+200 at FanDuel)
The market hasn’t caught up to just how good Koivun is. The No. 1 player in the World Amateur Golf Ranking finished T11 at the John Deere Classic, T6 at the ISCO Championship and T5 at the Wyndham Championship in his last three PGA Tour starts. Since then, he reached the Round of 32 at the U.S. Amateur and led Team USA to a victory at the Walker Cup. This kid has all the goods.

Rico Hoey top Asian golfer (+300 at DraftKings)
This market is filled with fade material in Napa. Byeong Hun An, the favorite, has finished cut, cut, cut, 79th and T60 in his last five starts, as he’s bleeding strokes on approach and on the greens. We haven’t seen Tom Kim since he withdrew from the Wyndham Championship in early August. Takumi Kanaya has missed the cut in eight of his last 11 starts, and Ryo Hisatsune has missed three of his last four due to atrocious iron play. Hoey, on the other hand, ranks third in the field in strokes gained on approach over the last three months, and he has the highest ceiling of the bunch because he can make birdies in bunches. 

3. NFL Preview

Week 2: How Good Are the Packers? Which Contenders Will Fall to 0-2?

It’s just Week 2, but several contenders already face nearly must-win situations after stumbling in their openers. Since 1990, only 11.8% of teams made the playoffs after starting with two losses. And only three teams in NFL history have won the Super Bowl after starting 0-2: 1993 Dallas Cowboys, 2001 New England Patriots, and 2007 New York Giants.

Four Games to Watch

• Commanders (1-0) vs. Packers (1-0) on Thursday at 8:15pm on Prime: The Thursday night clash pits Washington’s stingy defense against Green Bay’s explosive passing attack led by Jordan Love. Second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels faces his biggest test yet against a Packers defense that dominated Detroit, while the Commanders look to prove their Week 1 defensive dominance wasn’t a fluke.

• Bears (0-1) vs. Lions (0-1) at 1pm on FOX: Chicago head coach Ben Johnson returns to face his former Lions team after Detroit’s offensive struggles without him in Week 1. Second-year quarterback Caleb Williams showed growth in Week 1 but couldn’t close out, while Detroit must bounce back from their shocking loss to Green Bay and prove they can function without Johnson calling plays.

• Eagles (1-0) vs. Chiefs (0-1) at 4:25pm on FOX: The Super Bowl rematch features Philadelphia’s high-powered offense against a Kansas City defense that allowed 27 points in their Brazil loss. Patrick Mahomes desperately needs to avoid an 0-2 start against an Eagles team confident after their season-opening win over Dallas.

• Buccaneers (1-0) vs. Texans (0-1) on Monday at 7pm on ABC/ESPN: Tampa Bay’s balanced attack faces a Houston defense that allowed just 14 points but couldn’t generate enough offense in their loss to the Rams. The Texans need C.J. Stroud to bounce back from his sluggish opener, while the Buccaneers look to build momentum behind Baker Mayfield’s steady play.

The Rest of the Schedule

• Jaguars (1-0) vs. Bengals (1-0) at 1pm on CBS

• Giants (0-1) vs. Cowboys (0-1) at 1pm on FOX

• Rams (1-0) vs. Titans (0-1) at 1pm on CBS

• Patriots (0-1) vs. Dolphins (0-1) at 1pm on CBS

• 49ers (1-0) vs. Saints (0-1) at 1pm on FOX

• Bills (1-0) vs. Jets (0-1) at 1pm on CBS

• Seahawks (0-1) vs. Steelers (1-0) at 1pm on FOX

• Browns (0-1) vs. Ravens (0-1) at 1pm on CBS

• Broncos (1-0) vs. Colts (1-0) at 4:05pm on CBS

• Panthers (0-1) vs. Cardinals (1-0) at 4:05pm on CBS

• Falcons (0-1) vs. Vikings (1-0) at 8:20pm on NBC

• Chargers (1-0) vs. Raiders (1-0) at 10pm on ESPN

4. Public Money

Bettors Are All Over the Cowboys in Week 2 After Better-Than-Expected Loss

MLB

• Royals (+104) vs. Guardians (-126): 59% of the money is with Kansas City but 55% of the bets are with Cleveland

• Mets (+109) vs. Phillies (-132): 54% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• Cubs (-108) vs. Braves (-112): 54% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Chicago

• Twins (-119) vs. Angels (-102): 76% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Minnesota

• Red Sox (-110) vs. Athletics (-110): 82% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Boston

WNBA

• Mystics vs. Liberty (-13): 55% of the money and 57% of the bets are with New York

• Lynx (-2.5) vs. Fever: 60% of the money is with Indiana but 64% of the bets are with Minnesota

• Sky vs. Aces (-17): 61% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Chicago

• Sparks vs. Mercury (-7): 57% of the money is with Phoenix but 52% of the bets are with LA

• Valkyries vs. Storm (-6.5): 89% of the money is with Seattle but 62% of the bets are with Golden State

Early NFL Action

• Commanders (+3.5, -108) vs. Packers (-3.5, -112): 52% of the money is with Green Bay but the bets are 50/50

• Rams (-5.5, -115) vs. Titans (+5.5, -105): 72% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Patriots (+1.5, -105) vs. Dolphins (-1.5, -115): 62% of the money and 58% of the bets are with New England

• Jaguars (+3.5, -114) vs. Bengals (-3.5, -106): 59% of the money is with Jacksonville but 65% of the bets are with Cincinnati

• Seahawks (+2.5, -104) vs. Steelers (-2.5, -118): 81% of the money and bets are with Pittsburgh

• Browns (+11.5, -105) vs. Ravens (-11.5, -115): 85% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Baltimore

• Bills (-7, -105) vs. Jets (+7, -115): 68% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Buffalo

• Giants (+5.5, -106) vs. Cowboys (-5.5, -114): 91% of the money and 85% of the bets are with Dallas

5. Power Rankings

Sportmoney NFL Power Rankings: Bills Jump to No. 1 After Comeback for the Ages

1. Bills: Buffalo has to be #1 at least for a week after the epic comeback

2. Eagles: The defending champions weren’t great, but they won a tough rivalry game under the spotlight (and with a long delay)

3. Packers: Green Bay dismantled Detroit, but aren’t further up because they let Jared Goff go 31-39

4. Ravens: Despite the epic collapse, Baltimore is still one of the most talented teams in the league

5. Chargers: Justin Herbert had a monster game and LA will be tough to beat if he keeps it up

6. Commanders: They might not have faced much competition, but Washington didn’t show signs that last year was a fluke

7. Chiefs: An opener far from home won’t decide the season, but KC was just fine on Friday

8. 49ers: SF should probably be higher, but they have injury woes again

9. Lions: Detroit can’t be as bad as they looked on Sunday, right?

10. Vikings: J.J. McCarthy started slowly last night, but all he does is win

No. 1 Pick Watch

1. Saints: New Orleans actually played a decent game but are pretty much as advertised

2. Giants: The only reason to keep starting Russell Wilson is to stay in contention for the top pick

3. Dolphins: There’s no reason Miami should be this bad, but they might actually be

6. Overtime

In the News 

• Chicago announced that it is leaving Solider Field for the suburbs and wants to host the Super Bowl in 2031.

• The 49ers injury woes have continued into a new season.

• Biff Poggi is getting his moment in the spotlight for Michigan.

• The Giants are sticking with Russell Wilson as the starting quarterback for Week 2.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7:05pm: Tigers vs. Yankees on TBS

• 7:30pm: Lynx vs. Fever on ESPN or U.S. vs. Japan in an international soccer friendly on TNT

• 9:40pm: Reds vs. Padres on MLB Network

• 10pm: Sparks vs. Mercury on NBA TV