In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: A look at the MLB playoff picture

2. Bets to Watch: Raleigh averages 2.8 bases per game in Seattle wins

3. Public Money: An early check-in on the NFL slate

4. College Football: Five things to watch in Week 3

5. Overtime: NFL players to consider picking up for your fantasy leagues

1. Leading Off

Teams have about 18 games left in the MLB regular season, so we’re starting today by checking in on the playoff push. The Rockies and the White Sox are the only teams that are technically eliminated already, with the Nationals about to follow. And no team has officially clinched a postseason spot yet.

The Phillies have the biggest division lead, as they’re up nine games on the Mets in the NL East. The Astros sport the smallest lead in a division — they’re just one game up on the Mariners in the AL West.

In the race for the Wild Card spots, the Yankees and Red Sox are leading the way in the AL, with the Mariners 1.5 games up on the Rangers, 2.5 on the Guardians, 4 on the Royals and 4.5 on the Rays for the final spot. In the NL, the Cubs and Padres are in front, while the Mets are 2 games up on the Giants, 3 on the Reds, and 4.5 on the Diamondbacks and Cardinals for the last slot.

The Guardians are the hottest team in baseball, winners of five straight, while the Rays, Rangers, and Phillies have won 7 of 10. The Astros and Mets have both lost 7 of 10. Here’s a look at some MLB playoff bets to watch, via FanDuel:

• AL East Winner: Blue Jays (-175), Yankees (+230, 2 GB), Red Sox (+600, 3GB)

• AL West Winner: Astros (-220), Mariners (+175, 2GB), Rangers (+1200, 3.5 GB)

• NL West Winner: Dodgers (-260), Padres (+190, 1 GB)

• American League Winner: Yankees (+320), Tigers (+330), Blue Jays (+420), Mariners and Astros (+600), Red Sox (+650)

• National League Winner: Dodgers (+230), Phillies (+330), Brewers (+340), Padres (+650), Mets and Cubs (+800)

—Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Frelick Hit 1+ Single in 63.6% of Games This Season (65.6% at Home)

By Todd Cordell

Shea Langeliers over 1.5 total bases (-115 at Bet365)
Langeliers is legitimately one of the most productive hitters in the league when facing left-handed pitching. He owns a sparkling .354 average and a .282 ISO to boot. He draws Payton Tolle on Wednesday, a talented young pitcher but one who is still very raw. Tolle throws a ton of fastballs and that plays into the hands of Langeliers, who has hit .294 with a .471 ISO against fastballs thrown by lefties. He hasn’t homered in 10 straight games and we wouldn’t be surprised if that changes today.

Luis Arraez over 0.5 singles (-150 at FanDuel)
Arraez is a hit machine who has generated at least one single in 67% of his appearances when playing in San Diego. While he does hit for a better average against right-handed pitchers — and draws a quality lefty in Andrew Abbott — it’s not as if can’t be productive. Arraez still owns a competent .250 average against left-handed arms and 35 of his 42 hits have gone for just one base. The lack of power is actually a plus. Arraez has a single in nearly 60% of all games yet has come up empty in four of the last five, one of his worst dry spells of the season. Look for him to get back on track Wednesday.

Taylor Ward over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-121 at DraftKings)
Taj Bradley has not had a good season by any means. He owns a 4.92 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, has earned only six wins through 24 starts, and has been both demoted and traded over the course of the year. Unfortunately for him, things aren’t likely to get any better in Minnesota. Bradley has allowed 12 runs over just three starts, which is even more underwhelming when factoring in two came against a 55-90 Chicago White Sox team. Bradley throws a lot of fastballs and Taylor Ward hits them for a ton of power. This is a matchup where he should do damage.

Sal Frelick over 0.5 singles (-111 at DraftKings)
This line does not pass the smell test. Frelick has generated singles in 63.6% of games this season, 65.6% when playing at home, and 65.9% isolating games against right-handed starting pitchers. Those results indicate fair value should be close to -170 based on his consistency and hit rate. Merrill Kelly is a quality pitcher having a good year but, even so, he’s allowed at least five hits in four of his last six. He has also given up a higher average to left-handed hitters. This appears to be a very generous price.

Ivan Herrera over 0.5 singles (-115 at DraftKings)
Herrera is hitting .267 on the season against right-handed pitching but with just a .114 ISO. He’s only generating power vs. left-handed pitching. That’s led to a ton of singles, as 52 of his 66 hits vs. righties have gone for just one base. That’s a plus. So, too, is the fact Logan Gilbert has posted a batting average 20 points higher when facing right-handed hitters. Herrera has a single in 62% of away games and 60% against right-handed starters. Look for his success to continue Wednesday.

Bobby Witt Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-132 at DraftKings)
Witt Jr. is very effective against pitchers of each handedness but his average is noticeably higher when facing lefties. Witt Jr. also owns a remarkable track record against Logan Allen, piling up seven hits through just 12 at bats. Allen leans heavily on a fastball/changeup combination that Witt Jr. hits very well, as evidenced by their head-to-head results. It’s worth noting Witt Jr. has also cleared this line at a higher clip on the road, which makes sense given how pitcher-friendly his home park is.

Josh Naylor over 0.5 singles (-120 at Bet365)
Naylor has piled up seven singles over his last five home games. The singles train should continue rolling against Michael McGreevy and the Cardinals. McGreevy has struggled mightily to slow down left-handed hitters, allowing them to post a .318 average on the season. McGreevy’s two most-used pitches are the fastball and cutter, which Naylor has posted excellent numbers against. Naylor owns averages of .263 and .333 vs. the two pitches. 

Cal Raleigh over 1.5 total bases (-110 at FanDuel)
Let’s start with the basics here. McGreevy has allowed lefties to hit .318 with a .212 ISO on the year and Raleigh will hit from that side of the plate in this matchup. Raleigh also owns an ISO above .300 vs. righties with 46 extra base hits. The Mariners are -225 favorites in this matchup, indicating a strong chance of victory. That’s noteworthy as Raleigh has averaged 2.8 total bases per game in Seattle wins this season.

Daulton Varsho over 1.5 total bases (-105 at FanDuel)
Varsho has produced at a high rate against righties this season. His .248 average won’t blow you away but his .432 ISO certainly will. Of his 38 hits vs. right-handed pitchers, 28 have gone for extra bases. He’s 2-3 against Astros starter Jason Alexander and, more importantly, owns an astronomical .728 ISO vs. Alexander’s go-to pitch in the changeup. Don’t be surprised if he gets a hold of one and clears this line with one swing.

Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-144 at DraftKings)
Hernandez has had an up-and-down season but his numbers have remained excellent against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .278 vs. lefties with a .258 ISO to boot. He draws a very hittable lefty in Kyle Freeland, who uses the fastball more than any other pitch. Hernandez has hit .343 vs. fastballs thrown by lefties this season so he’s certainly well equipped to take advantage. Freeland has allowed at least three earned runs in seven of his last 10 road starts, with the three exceptions each coming against non-playoff teams. Hernandez and the Dodgers should give him a world of trouble here.

3. Public Money

So Far Bettors Are Heavily With Road Favorite Eagles (-1.5) at Kansas City

MLB

• Brewers (-132) vs. Rangers (+108): 86% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Diamondbacks (-105) vs. Giants (-115): 94% of the money and 62% of the bets are with San Francisco

• Twins (+112) vs. Angels (-137): 83% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Royals (-108) vs. Guardians (-112): 81% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Cleveland

WNBA

• Dream (-14) vs. Sun: 61% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Atlanta

NFL Look Ahead

• Bears (+5.5, -110) vs. Lions (-5.5, -110): 79% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Detroit

• 49ers (-4.5, -115) vs. Saints (+4.5, -105): 80% of the money and 75% of the bets are with San Francisco

• Broncos (-2.5, -102) vs. Colts (+2.5, -120): 51% of the money is with Indianapolis but 56% of the bets are with Denver

• Panthers (+6.5, -105) vs. Cardinals (-6.5, -115): 88% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Arizona

• Eagles (-1.5, -102) vs. Chiefs (+1.5, -120): 79% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• Falcons (+4.5, -110) vs. Vikings (-4.5, -110): 73% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Buccaneers (+2.5, -102) vs. Texas (-2.5, -120): 61% of the money and 73% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• Chargers (-3, -120) vs. Raiders (+3, -102): 91% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Los Angeles

4. College Football

Preview: Napier’s Job Security is on the Line as Gators (+7.5) Are Road Underdogs at LSU

Just two weeks into the season, college football is already dealing out surprises and tightening the screws on programs with high expectations. With contenders trying to separate from the pack and a few coaches already facing uncomfortable questions, Week 3 has a little bit of everything on the line. Here are five of the biggest things to watch this week:

1. Miami’s Test Against USF: The Hurricanes face South Florida, which has shocked the college football world with back-to-back ranked wins to open the season. The Bulls are 17.5-point underdogs but bring momentum from their upsets of Florida and Boise State, and a third straight ranked victory would be unprecedented in program history.

2. Florida’s Season on the Brink in Death Valley: After losing at home to South Florida, Billy Napier’s Gators travel to LSU as 7.5-point underdogs in a game that could determine his job security for the rest of the year. Florida committed 11 penalties in the loss to USF and another defeat would leave the Gators at 1-2 with serious questions about the program’s direction.

3. Georgia vs. Tennessee in Knoxville: The Bulldogs visit Neyland Stadium as 4.5-point favorites looking to extend their eight-game winning streak against the Volunteers. Tennessee has not beaten Georgia since 2016, and the Volunteers’ best chance to end that drought comes with Georgia potentially vulnerable after sleeping through a sloppy win against Austin Peay.

4. Alabama’s Bounce-Back Chance: After their shocking Week 1 loss to Florida State, the Crimson Tide get Wisconsin as 20.5-point favorites to prove their playoff hopes are still alive. Alabama destroyed Louisiana-Monroe 73-0 last week, but the Badgers present a much stiffer test and Alabama needs to show they can perform against quality competition.

5. Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Quarterback Duel: The Fighting Irish are 6.5-point home favorites in a matchup between teams looking for a marquee win. Notre Dame needs CJ Carr to bounce back after finding very little rhythm 27-24 loss to Miami, while Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed has guided the Aggies to a 2-0 start with 509 yards, 7 touchdowns and no interceptions in two games against weak competition.

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Yahoo Sports takes a look at who might be available to pick up in your NFL fantasy league if you need a sub.

• The NFL decided against suspending Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter after Week 1 spitting incident.

• Josh Giddey agreed to a four-year, $100 million contract extension with the Bulls.

• The Illinois athletic department received $100 million and immediately renamed the football stadium in the donor’s honor.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Rhode Island FC vs. Sacramento Republic FC in the USL Jägermeister Cup on ESPN+

• 7:05pm: Tigers vs. Yankees on MLB Network / Prime Video

• 9pm: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 4 Louisville in women’s volleyball