In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Spotlight on the Packers

2. Bets to Watch: Deion has moved on to his 3rd string quarterback

3. Game of the Day: There’s a big total in tonight’s Big 12 showdown

4. Public Money: Bettors are with a couple double-digit road underdogs in CFB matchups

5. NFL: Five things to watch in Week 1

6. Overtime: There’s some major line movement in Week 2 NFL games

1. Leading Off

In the spotlight on Thursday Night Football, Green Bay’s commanding 27-18 win over Washington confirmed the Packers are genuine Super Bowl contenders. Green Bay’s championship odds jumped dramatically from +1800 before acquiring Micah Parsons to +750 after last night’s win, giving them the second-best odds in the NFL behind Philadelphia, Buffalo and Baltimore (all +700 on FanDuel).

Green Bay is just the fifth team since 1966 to open with wins against opponents that each won at least 12 games the previous year. Quarterback Jordan Love is starting this campaign hot, completing 66% of his passes for 480 yards and four touchdowns. And Josh Jacobs extended his franchise record with touchdowns in 10 consecutive games, sitting one game away from tying the NFL record.

The addition of Parsons has transformed Green Bay’s defense into a dominant unit, holding two top-four offenses from last season without first-quarter touchdowns — and allowing just 15.5 points per game. Now a huge favorite to win NFC North (-155, Minnesota is next at +340), the Packers look poised for a deep playoff run.

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Guerrero Jr. Recorded Multiple H+R+R in 63% of Games This Season (2.4 Average)

By Todd Cordell

Houston -4 (-112 at DraftKings)
Houston is off to a 2-0 start on the back of strong defensive play. They’ve allowed just nine points through their first two games and are poised to cause problems at home against Colorado. The Buffaloes are going through a change at quarterback, opting to start Ryan Staub after Kaidon Salter combined for just 261 passing yards through 1.5 games. He’s likely to have a tough time helping Colorado score, which is problematic as the Buffaloes have underwhelming defensive metrics and are not a good bet to hold up against Houston’s offense.

MLB

Bobby Witt Jr. over 1.5 total bases (-105 at DraftKings)
Witt has averaged exactly 2.0 total bases per game this season. He’s been slightly more productive on the road, which checks out given how pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium is. He should benefit from playing in Citizens Bank Park, one of the better environments for offensive players. Perhaps more importantly, he is expected to draw Walker Buehler, who owns a 5.45 ERA and has given up 22 homers on the year. Witt Jr. has hit righties very well and fares well against a lot of what Buehler throws, positioning him well to produce in this game.

Luke Keaschall over 0.5 singles (-120 at FanDuel)
Keaschall has piled up the singles since he reached the major leagues. He’s hit one in 24 of 39 games, good for an impressive 62% success rate. He’s performed even better at home, where he’s hit a single at a 70% clip. Keaschall has struggled vs. lefties but has posted a remarkable .379 average vs. right-handed pitchers. On the flip side, Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has conceded 107 singles on the year and right-handed bats are hitting nearly .300 off of him. After back-to-back games without a single, this is the perfect spot to rebound.

Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105 at Bet365)
The Orioles have had a very difficult year but that hasn’t stopped Henderson from having a good season at the plate — especially vs. right-handed pitching. He’s hit .296 with a .208 ISO and more than 40 extra base hits. He should be able to make plenty of noise against Chris Bassitt, who has struggled against left-handed bats. They’ve hit .276 with a .183 ISO vs. him this season. It’s also worth noting Henderson is 4-11 against Bassitt with a pair of homers.

Colson Montgomery over 1.5 total bases (+147 at DraftKings)
Montgomery has hit for ridiculous power when facing right-handed pitching. He is sporting a .354 ISO and 20 of his 35 hits have gone for extra bases, with singles only accounting for 43% of his hits. Montgomery has cleared this line in only one of the last five but has a good matchup to get back on track against Tanner Bibee. He has allowed an ISO approaching .200 vs. left-handed hitters and features both the cutter and sinker in his pitching arsenal, two pitches Montgomery has generated absurd power against.

Ivan Herrera over 0.5 singles (-115 at DraftKings)
Herrera has hit a single in 57% of all games and 60.9% when playing on the road. Although he has hit for a higher average vs. lefties, he still owns a strong average against right-handed pitchers like Quinn Priester. However, the power is largely neutralized when facing that handedness. That’s why 77% of his hits against righties have gone for just one base while only 54% of his hits vs. lefties have done so. As an added bonus, Priester throws a lot of sinkers and Herrera has a .303 average against it this season.

Ryan O’Hearn over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105 at Bet365)
O’Hearn has had a tough time producing offense in San Diego but it’s hard not to get excited about his chances facing Tanner Gordon and Colorado. Gordon has given up a .318 average and .200 ISO on the season, with more of the power stemming from left-handed hitters like O’Hearn. Gordon throws a ton of fastballs, using that pitch nearly 60% of the time vs. lefties. O’Hearn has hit it very well, recording a .276 average and .239 ISO. Look for him to up his production in this spot.

Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 total bases (+116 at DraftKings)
Schwarber is a Michael Lorenzen whisperer. He’s faced him 22 times in recent years and recorded eight hits (.364 average), half of which have gone for extra bases. Lorenzen has allowed a higher average to left-handed bats, working in Schwarber’s favor. He also relies heavily on the fastball/changeup combination, which Schwarber owns ISOs of .368 and .271 against.

Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (+100 at Bet365)
Ohtani has averaged 2.3 total bases per game this season, a number that grows on the road. He’s excelled against pitchers of both handedness but has generated even more power vs. righties, posting an astronomical .373 ISO. He’s piled up 55 extra base hits against right-handed pitching alone. Justin Verlander has tightened the screws on hitters of late but is still prone to blowup spots, allowing five or more in two of his last six. Don’t be surprised if Ohtani and the Dodgers get to him.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-141 at DraftKings)
It’s hard not to back Guerrero Jr. at this price. He’s recorded multiple H+R+R in 63% of his games this season, averaging 2.4 along the way while serving as a focal point of the offense on one of the league’s best teams. While he draws a tough matchup in Trevor Rogers, Guerrero Jr. is well equipped to handle what he throws. Rogers uses the fastball a lot and Guerrero has hit .325 with a .300 ISO against fastballs thrown by lefties this season. He’s also hit better than .300 against sinkers and sliders, both of which Rogers also features.  

3. Game of the Day

Kansas State (-1.5) Looks to Avoid First 1-3 Start Since H.W. Bush Administration

Kansas State travels to Tucson looking to avoid their first 1-3 start since legendary coach Bill Snyder’s first season in 1989. They face an Arizona team that has outscored opponents 88-9 through two games. Kansas State has been upset twice as heavy favorites, falling to Army 24-21 after struggling against North Dakota, while Arizona enters their Big 12 opener fresh off dominating wins over Hawaii (40-6) and Weber State (48-3).

Kansas State (1-2, 0-1 Big 12) vs. Arizona (2-0, 0-0 Big 12)
9pm ET on FOX

• Spread: Kansas State (-1.5, -102) vs. Arizona (+1.5, -120)

• Moneyline: Kansas State -111, Arizona -108

• Total (54.5): Over/Under -110

Public Betting

• Spread: 51% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Arizona

• Moneyline: 51% of the money is with Arizona but 61% of the bets are with Kansas State

• Total: 58% of the money is on the over but 56% of the money is on the under

Players to Watch

• Kansas State QB Avery Johnson:
The junior has completed 64-98 passes for 763 yards and six touchdowns with just one interception through three games. Johnson’s dual-threat ability remains dangerous despite the team’s struggles, as he’s added 78 rushing yards and one touchdown. He has a 148.9 passer rating.

• Arizona QB Noah Fifita:
The junior has thrown for 534 yards and six touchdowns without an interception in two games, bouncing back from a disappointing 2024 season. Fifita’s completion percentage has improved under new offensive coordinator Seth Doege, and he’s shown better decision-making while working with an upgraded receiving corps.

• Kansas State LB Austin Romaine:
The preseason All-Big 12 selection leads a defense that allowed Army to control the ball for over 40 minutes in their last game. Romaine recorded 96 tackles last season and has been Kansas State’s most consistent defensive player, averaging 10 tackles over the last two games while serving as the emotional leader of the unit.

• Arizona RB Quincy Craig: The Portland State transfer has been Arizona’s most explosive offensive weapon, rushing for 156 yards and one touchdown on 15 carries (for a 10.4-yard average). Craig scored Arizona’s first touchdown against Hawaii on a 54-yard run and gives the Wildcats a home-run threat they lacked last season.

• Kansas State WR Jerand Bradley: The 6-foot-5 Boston College transfer brings veteran experience to a Kansas State offense that needs playmakers. Bradley caught 10 passes for 152 yards and one touchdown through three games, providing Johnson with a reliable red zone target who can create mismatches with his size.

• Arizona WR Javin Whatley: The senior leads Arizona with eight catches for 206 yards and two touchdowns, including five catches for 168 yards and two scores against Weber State. Whatley has emerged as Fifita’s favorite target in the red zone and provides the consistent production Arizona needs from their receiving corps.

4. Public Money

Bettors Are With Houston at Home Against New-Look Colorado

CFB

• Colorado (+3.5, -102) vs. Houston (-3.5, -120): 68% of the money and 61% of the bets are with the Cougars

• New Mexico (+15.5, -112) vs. UCLA (-15.5, -108): 57% of the money and 63% of the bets are with the Lobos

• Colgate (+37.5, -110) vs. Syracuse (-37.5, -110): 65% of the money and 62% of the bets are with the Orange

• Indiana State (+48.5, -115) vs. No. 22 Indiana (-48.5, -105): 64% of the money and 66% of the bets are with the Sycamores

MLB

• Tigers (-1.5, -104) vs. Marlins (+1.5, -115): 91% of the money and 78% of the bets are with Detroit

• Rockies (+1.5, +106) vs. Padres (-1.5, -128): 97% of the money and 92% of the bets are with San Diego

• Dodgers (-1.5, +114) vs. Giants (+1.5, -137): 71% of the money and the bets are with Los Angeles

• Orioles (+113) vs. Blue Jays (-137): 61% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Toronto

• Rangers (-108) vs. Mets (-113): 55% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Toronto

• Diamondbacks (+118) vs. Twins (-144): 64% of the money and 54% of the bets are with Arizona

5. NFL

Super Bowl Rematch in Week 2 Could Also Be a Super Bowl Preview

The Super Bowl rematch headlines Sunday’s slate with the Chiefs hosting the Eagles at Arrowhead Stadium, while the 49ers will start Mac Jones with Brock Purdy sidelined for multiple weeks. Here are the five storylines that will shape Week 2.

1. Super Bowl revenge game between Eagles and Chiefs:
The Eagles will try to repeat their dominant 40-22 Super Bowl victory when they visit Kansas City on Sunday afternoon. Patrick Mahomes has historically thrived as an underdog with an 11-4 record when the Chiefs aren’t favored, but Philadelphia’s defense stifled Kansas City’s offense in the Big Game.

2. Mac Jones takes over 49ers offense without key weapons:
San Francisco will start Mac Jones at quarterback with Brock Purdy expected to miss 2-5 weeks due to a turf toe injury. The 49ers offense faces additional challenges with George Kittle on injured reserve and Brandon Aiyuk still recovering from his knee injury.

3. Russell Wilson’s job security hanging by a thread:
The Giants quarterback’s time as starter appears limited after managing just 168 yards and zero touchdowns in Week 1. Coach Brian Daboll’s refusal to commit to Wilson beyond this week has fueled speculation that rookie Jaxson Dart could take over if the offense struggles again.

4. Joe Burrow looks to bounce back from Week 1 struggles:
The Bengals quarterback threw for just 113 yards in their narrow 17-16 win over Cleveland, marking his lowest output in a victory. Cincinnati managed only seven yards in the second half and had -18 yards in the fourth quarter, but Burrow historically rebounds strongly after poor opening performances.

5. Cam Ward seeks first NFL touchdown: The Titans rookie quarterback went 12-28 for 112 yards and took six sacks in his debut loss to Denver, failing to reach the end zone in both preseason and his first regular season game. Ward showed promise with his arm talent and poise under pressure, but Tennessee needs better protection and fewer dropped passes to help their top draft pick.

6. Overtime

In the News 

• Detroit’s new offensive coordinator said “nobody’s in panic mode” after the team’s dud of a first game.

• The Noah Lyles and Kenny Bednarek rivalry continues at the track and field world championships in Tokyo.

• A look at the major line movement in NFL Week 2 matchups after injuries and unexpected results in the first games.

• The Clippers saga continues, with more evidence.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:20pm: Rays vs. Cubs on MLB Network

• 7:10pm: Rangers vs. Mets on MLB Network

• 7:30pm: Colorado vs. Houston on ESPN

• 9pm: Kansas State vs. Arizona on FOX

• 10:15pm: Dodgers vs. Giants on MLB Network