In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Quarterback struggles in Week 2 in the NFL

2. Bets to Watch: Chargers could set the pace in AFC West

3. Game of the Day: Texans are favored at home in first of two MNF games tonight

4. Public Money: Bettors are heavily with road favorite Chargers in MNF game 2

5. Power Rankings: Here come the Sooners

6. Overtime: Burrow is out for at least 3 months

1. Leading Off

Seven NFL games finished within seven points yesterday, but the story of the day was uncharacteristically sluggish quarterback play — even from winning teams.

• In the Super Bowl rematch won 20-17 by the Eagles, quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes combined to throw for just 288 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.

• The Sunday Night Football matchup won 22-6 by the Falcons featured 7 field goals and only 1 touchdown — Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. was 13-21 for 135 yards and Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy was 11-21 for 158 yards and 2 interceptions (and was sacked 6 times).

• Justin Fields suffered a concussion after being sacked in the fourth quarter, and was just 3-11 for 27 yards before he was forced out of the Jets 30-10 loss to the Bills.

• Titans rookie Cam Ward was sacked five times and was 19-33 for 175 yards in a 33-19 loss to the Rams.

• Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was 18-33 for 203 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions in a 31-17 loss to the Seahawks — he was also sacked 3 times.

The best quarterback performance of the day, the Giants’ Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards on 30-41 passing with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, came in an overtime loss to the Cowboys.

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Hampton Notched 15 Carries in Chargers Debut And Tonight’s Total is 13.5

By Craig Williams

Raiders +3.5 (-115 at bet365)
The Raiders and Chargers have played it relatively close in recent seasons. While the Chargers have the overall advantage over their past 10 meetings, the Raiders have won and covered three of the past five at home. There’s only so much that can be gleaned after one week of action, but this Raiders team gave us the impression that they can be an improved team under new head coach Pete Carroll. Finally, we’re selling the Chargers adopting a pass-happy approach, and anticipate a more balanced attack in Week 2.

Omarion Hampton over 13.5 rush attempts (-148 at FanDuel)
Hampton was quiet in his debut last week, but still managed to handle a team-leading 15 carries. A busier night could be ahead for Hampton if the Chargers ease up on Justin Herbert’s workload. He attempted 34 passes — something he did in only six of 17 games last season — and totaled seven carries. Even if Najee Harris becomes more involved in the backfield rotation, it’s only a matter of time before Hampton’s talent begins to translate to games.

Ashton Jeanty over 85.5 rushing + receiving yards (-125 at Fanatics)
Jeanty handled 21 opportunities last week at New England, and we’re pegging that as the primary takeaway more than his 40 total yards. We expect Jeanty to be busy once again, especially with top pass-catcher Brock Bowers (knee) banged up a bit. Don’t be surprised to see Jeanty increase his receiving work as he gets more settled, perhaps as soon as this week.

Chargers moneyline (-174 at FanDuel)
The Raiders looked promising in their first game under Pete Carroll, and we anticipate them putting forth another quality effort, but the Chargers appear poised to contend for the AFC West crown — especially if they take an early two-game lead over the Kansas City Chiefs. We like that the Chargers are in Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh era with eyes toward competing deep into the winter, while the Raiders are still building their new culture. Even if this is a close contest, we anticipate the Chargers taking the W on the road.

Bucs vs. Texans over 42.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Both the Bucs and Texans engaged in low-scoring contests in Week 1, but both teams have the offensive horses to light up the scoreboard to a larger degree tonight. We’re looking extra close at C.J. Stroud and the Texans in this spot too. They only mustered nine points against a Rams defense that looks stout two weeks into the season. The Buccaneers are no defensive slouch themselves, but we like the Texans to enjoy more offensive success in Week 2 and combine with the Bucs for at least 43 points.

Emeka Egbuka over 4.5 receptions (+100 at Hard Rock Bet)
Egbuka demonstrated his polish in his NFL debut last week, and he figures to have another chance to be heavily involved in the offense again, especially if Mike Evans receives the Derek Stingley Jr. treatment. Egbuka finished with four grabs on six targets in Week 1 — along with two touchdowns. He appears ready to take ownership of the No. 2 role until — and perhaps even after — Chris Godwin returns to the lineup.

Nico Collins over 73.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Last week was a dud for Collins, who finished with three catches and 25 yards on five targets. The Texans spread the ball around a lot in Week 1 — eight players recorded at least two targets — but look for them to get their No. 1 offensive option going early and often tonight. Collins led the Texans in targets in 2024 despite only playing 12 games, and he averaged over 14 yards per catch. Even though there’s a new offensive coordinator in tow, we don’t expect they’ll go another game without leaning into their top weapon.

MLB

Yankees under 1.5 runs first 3 innings (-140 at DraftKings)
The Yankees are 8-1 against the Twins over the past two seasons, and have had their number for a longer stretch than that. We’re respecting the improved play of the Yankees, who have won five of their past six series, but they also played the Sunday night game before traveling from Boston to Minnesota. We won’t be surprised if it takes the Yankees a turn through the order to get locked in offensively. 

Aaron Judge over 1.5 hits + runs + total bases (-121 at DraftKings)
Judge is in quality form overall and has gone over this number in four straight contests. Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson has struggled in three starts since returning to the rotation, pitching to a 6.59 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. We’re banking on Judge remaining hot and the rest of the lineup providing enough support to get him an over in this spot.

Nationals +1.5 (-120 at Hard Rock Bet)
The Nats are already mathematically eliminated and the Braves are close to facing the same fate. They’re 3-3 this season, but the Nats have taken three of the past four. Neither lefty Mitchell Parker nor right-hander Spencer Strider has pitched particularly well in recent weeks, and both the Nats and Braves have been quiet offensively over their past few contests. Something will need to give, but one way or another, we like the Nats to continue playing the Braves tough and to cover tonight’s meeting.

3. Game of the Day

Buccaneers (+2.5) Are Road Underdogs But Texans Offense Sputtered in Week 1

Tampa Bay travels to Houston to face the Texans in the first of two Monday Night Football games tonight, with both teams looking to establish momentum early in the season. The Buccaneers are looking for a fourth consecutive 2-0 start under Todd Bowles, while Houston’s attempt to bounce back from offensive struggles in Week 1 while dealing with multiple injuries to key skill position players.

Buccaneers (1-0) vs. Texans (0-1)
7pm ET on ABC/ESPN

• Spread: Buccaneers (+2.5, -105), Texans (-2.5, -115)

• Moneyline: Texans -152, Buccaneers +128

• Total (42.5): Over/Under -110

Public Money

• Spread: 64% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• Moneyline: 53% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• Total: 85% of the money and 78% of the money are on the over

Players to Watch

• Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield: Mayfield threw for 167 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener and will need to manage the game against Houston’s pass rush featuring Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.

• Buccaneers WR Mike Evans: With Chris Godwin still sidelined from ankle surgery, Evans becomes the primary target in Tampa Bay’s passing attack and will likely see increased volume.

• Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka: The rookie first-round pick caught four passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut, including the game-winning 25-yard touchdown with 46 seconds remaining.

• Texans WB C.J. Stroud: The third-year quarterback struggled in Week 1 with 188 yards and an interception but has a strong history against Tampa Bay, throwing for 470 yards and five touchdowns in their last meeting in his rookie year.

• Texans WR Nico Collins: Collins managed just three catches for 25 yards against the Rams but remains Houston’s primary receiving threat with Christian Kirk and Tank Dell unavailable.

• Texans TE Dalton Schultz: With Cade Stover on injured reserve due to foot surgery, Schultz becomes the featured tight end and tied for the team lead with five targets in Week 1.

4. Public Money

87% of the Money is With Road Favorite Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas

NFL

• Chargers (1-0) vs. Raiders (1-0)

  • Spread — Chargers (-3, -120), Raiders (+3, -102): 87% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • Moneyline — Chargers -180, Raiders +152: 79% of the money and 88% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • Total (46.5) — Over -105, Under -115: 78% of the money and 60% of the bets are on the over

MLB

• Cubs (-1.5, +130) vs. Pirates (+1.5, -156): 62% of the money is with Chicago but the bets are 50/50

• Braves (-1.5, -106) vs. Nationals (+1.5, -113): 59% of the money is with Atlanta but and 53% of the bets are with Washington

• Yankees (-1.5, -122) vs. Twins (+1.5, +102): 88% of the money and 75% of the bets are with New York

• Orioles (-1.5, +116) vs. White Sox (+1.5, -140): 56% of the money is with Baltimore but and 55% of the bets are with the Chicago

• Reds (-105) vs. Cardinals (-115): 56% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Cincinnati

• Rangers (+104) vs. Astros (-127): 53% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Houston

• Phillies (+101) vs. Dodgers (-123): 63% of the money is with Philadelphia but 52% of the bets are with Los Angeles

5. Power Rankings

Sportmoney CFP Rankings: Oklahoma Climbs, Notre Dame and Texas Drop Out

1. Ohio State (Big Ten): The Buckeyes got off to a slow start in a game it must have been hard to get motivated for, so we’ll give them a pass

2. Penn State: The Nittany Lions haven’t played a quality team yet and have a bye week for a home primetime matchup against Oregon

3. Georgia (SEC): All Georgia does is win and we aren’t going to doubt them unless they do

4. LSU: It’s probably unfair to drop the Tigers, who keep winning, but despite what coach Brian Kelly says the offense is concerning

5. Oregon: The Ducks still haven’t shown any real weaknesses yet

6. Miami (ACC): Miami didn’t let South Florida sneak up on them in a blowout win

7. Oklahoma: Quarterback John Mateer now has the second-best odds to win the Heisman (+900)

8. Ole Miss: Their offense isn’t slowing down, which is what you need to win in the SEC this year

9. Florida State: The Seminoles have two more easy opponents coming up, so we won’t learn much more about FSU until their showdown against Miami

10. Illinois: A matchup at No. 19 Indiana this week is as close to a must-win as there is so early in the season if the Illini want a shot at the CFP

11. Iowa State (Big 12): It’s time to give the Cyclones some respect. But the Big 12 is going to be just as unpredictable as predicted

12. South Florida (American): The Bulls couldn’t stay close to Miami, but we think that says more about the Hurricanes so they keep the final spot

6. Overtime

In the News 

• Joe Burrow needs toe surgery and will be out for at least three months.

• UCLA fired football coach DeShaun Foster after just 15 games.

• Mike McDaniel isn’t worried about his job after another Dolphins loss.

• Notre Dame is the first 0-2 team ranked in the AP Top 25 in 37 years.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 6:40pm: Cubs vs. Pirates on MLB Network

• 7pm: Buccaneers vs. Texas on ABC/ESPN

• 10pm: Chargers vs. Raiders on ESPN

• 10:10pm: Phillies vs. Dodgers on MLB Network