In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: ICYMI the WNBA Playoffs are here

2. Bets to Watch: Skenes isn’t expected to pitch long today

3. NFL Preview: The four biggest games to watch this week

4. Public Money: Where bettors are putting their money early in NFL Week 3

5. Overtime: A new reason to ban the tush push

1. Leading Off

The WNBA Playoffs tipped off, but you might have missed it because the league inexplicably decided to start on an NFL Sunday. If you look at the schedule this season this isn’t a surprise, though, as the WNBA seems to operate in its own bubble rather than to look for opportunities for viewership.

Anyway, on Sunday the No. 1-seeded Lynx beat the expansion Valkyries by 29 in Game 1 of the three game series. The No. 2 Aces had no issues in the first matchup with the Storm, winning by 25. The Dream (3rd seed) beat the Caitlin Clark-less Fever (6th) by 12. And the one good game of the first day of the playoffs was the 5th-seeded Liberty winning by 7 on the road against the 4th-seeded Mercury.

FanDuel has the Lynx as pretty heavy favorites to win the title (-120) a season after falling to the Liberty 3-2 in the WNBA Finals. The Aces are next at +250, followed by the Liberty (+750) and Dream (+800). The other four teams have between +3500 and +50000 odds.

There are two Game 2s tonight (Dream vs. Fever and Aces vs. Storm), as the WNBA thankfully decided to fill a football scheduling gap for at least some of their playoff games.

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Dodgers vs. Phillies Should Be A Pitchers’ Duel, At Least to Start

By Jack Dougherty

Braves over 4.5 runs (-128 at FanDuel)
The Braves have scored 19 runs in their last two games, and they have a great chance to stay hot on Tuesday with Washington’s Jake Irvin on the mound. Irvin has given up at least three earned runs in eight straight starts. He ranks in the sixth percentile in xERA (5.63) and the fifth percentile in barrel rate (11.8%) this season. After Irvin, the Braves get to tee off against a Nationals bullpen that ranks dead last in MLB in ERA (5.47). 

Marcel Ozuna to hit a home run (+550 at DraftKings)
This is a good opportunity to look at a home run prop because Irvin has given up the second-most home runs (33) in MLB this season, including nine in his last seven starts. Ozuna is crushing right-handed pitching right now, as he has a 60% hard-hit rate and a .776 OPS against righties this month. He’s also 6-16 (.375) with a home run in his career against Irvin. 

Cubs moneyline (+110 at BetMGM)
The Cubs shouldn’t be underdogs in this matchup, even with Paul Skenes on the mound. Pittsburgh wants to limit Skenes’ workload down the stretch. The NL Cy Young favorite threw only 64 pitches in his last start against the Orioles, and that number will likely continue to drop as we near the end of the season. The Cubs will counter with Cade Horton, who has a 0.84 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP since July 20. He should dominate against a Pirates lineup that has the worst OPS (.544) and wRC+ (53) against right-handed pitching this month. 

Yankees moneyline first 5 innings (-150 at FanDuel)
The Yankees should be bigger favorites in this market with the starting pitching advantage they have going for them. Cam Schittler has given up one or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts, and he surrendered just two hits and one run in his lone start against the Twins this season. As for Zebby Matthews, opposing hitters have a .337 BAPIP and a 40% hard-hit rate against him dating back to August 11. In 28 plate appearances against Matthews, Yankees hitters have a .319 xBA and a .731 xSLG. 

Michael Wacha 5+ hits allowed (-127 at DraftKings)
A lot is working against Wacha on Tuesday night. For one, the Royals right-hander has given up at least five hits in five of his last six starts. He now ranks in the 30th percentile in xBA (.261) this season. As for the matchup, the Mariners rank sixth in MLB in batting average (.276) and OPS (.792) against righties over the last week. Finally, Mariners hitters are batting .305 with a .368 xwOBA in 152 plate appearances against Wacha. 

Eugenio Suarez 2+ hits + runs + RBIs (-107 at DraftKings)
One of those Mariners hitters who loves going up against Wacha is Suarez. In 38 career at-bats against the right-hander, Suarez is batting .447 and slugging .684 with three doubles and two home runs. We’re getting a discount on this prop because Suarez is ice cold at the plate. He’s failed to hit this line in seven straight games, but reuniting with Wacha might be exactly what he needs to break out of this slump.

Freddy Peralta to record a win (-111 at DraftKings)
Peralta gave up five earned runs in his last start against the Rangers, but he went 28 straight scoreless innings before that. He should return to that elite form against the lowly Angels, as Los Angeles hitters have a .130 xBA, a .169 xwOBA and a 38.7% strikeout rate against the right-hander. Peralta should pick up some run support here with rookie Caden Dana on the mound. Dana has struggled to adjust to MLB with 11 earned runs and 11 walks through his first 15.2 innings of work.

Dodgers vs. Phillies under 3.5 first 5 innings (+112 at FanDuel)
Tuesday’s heavyweight battle between the Dodgers and Phillies is shaping up to be an early pitchers’ duel. Cristopher Sanchez is as consistent as they come on the mound, and he’s pitching well with only three earned runs over his last 20.0 innings of work. Dodgers hitters have just a .298 xwOBA in 79 plate appearances against the left-hander. As for Shohei Ohtani, he’s been lights out at home this season with a 2.25 ERA, 0.875 WHIP and 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings.

Logan Gilbert under 5.5 strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Gilbert is a much different pitcher on the road than he is at home. The Mariners right-hander has a 5.29 ERA and 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings on the road this season, which is a stark contrast from his 2.13 ERA and 13.6 strikeouts per nine at home. The Royals have similar home/road splits at the plate. Since the start of August, Kansas City has the lowest strikeout rate against righties at home (18.4 percent). Gilbert also has a 20.9% strikeout rate against Royals hitters, which is much lower than his season K rate of 34.0%.

Michael King 2+ earned runs allowed (-151 at DraftKings)
King is having a great season for the Padres, but he’s starting to slip a bit with at least two earned runs in five straight starts. It’s hard to trust this Mets offense, but New York has hit King hard in the past. In 53 plate appearances against the righty, Mets hitters have a .311 xBA, a .534 xSLG and a .400 xwOBA. This line is just a touch too low.

3. NFL Preview

Week 3: With Chiefs Faltering, Broncos vs. Chargers Could Be Huge in AFC West

NFL Week 3 kicks off Thursday with a crucial AFC East showdown between the Bills and Dolphins and wraps up Monday night as the Ravens visit the Lions in a clash of championship contenders. The weekend slate also features two marquee battles of unbeatens—Eagles vs. Rams and Cardinals vs. 49ers—that should help separate early-season pretenders from contenders.

Four Games to Watch

• Rams (2-0) vs. Eagles (2-0), 1pm on FOX: Even though this is an early-season matchup, it could impact NFC home-field advantage. The Rams’ defense has eight sacks through two weeks, tied for fifth-most in the NFL.

  • Rams (+3.5, -112), Eagles (-3.5, -108): 60% of the money is with Los Angeles but 58% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• Broncos (1-1) vs. Chargers (2-0), 4:05pm on CBS: Another early game that could be crucial at the end of the season, this time for the AFC West title. The Chargers are averaging 394 yards per game, tied for fourth-best in the NFL, while Denver’s defense has seven sacks through two weeks.

  • Broncos (+2.5, -104), Chargers (-2.5, -118): 69% of the money and bets are with Los Angeles

• Cardinals (2-0) vs. 49ers (2-0), 4:25pm on FOX: The surprising Cardinals and injury-plagued 49ers are both looking to prove their staying power. The Cardinals are averaging 23.5 points per game while the 49ers have allowed just 21.5 points per game.

  • Cardinals (+1.5, -110), 49ers (-1.5, -110): 64% of the money and 54% of the bets are with San Francisco

• Lions (1-1) vs. Ravens (1-1), 7:15pm on ABC: The last game of the week features potential Super Bowl contenders both teams aiming to get back above .500. Baltimore is leading the NFL at 40.5 points per game while Detroit ranks third at 32.5.

  • Lions (+5.5, -104), Ravens (-5.5, -118): 64% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Baltimore

The Rest of the Schedule

• Dolphins (0-2) vs. Bills (2-0), Thursday at 8:15pm on Prime Video

• Packers (2-0) vs. Browns (0-2), 1pm on FOX

• Colts (2-0) vs. Titans (0-2), 1pm on CBS

• Bengals (2-0) vs. Vikings (1-1), 1pm on CBS

• Steelers (1-1) vs. Patriots (1-1), 1pm on CBS

• Jets (0-2) vs. Buccaneers (2-0), 1pm on FOX

• Raiders (1-1) vs. Commanders (1-1), 1pm on FOX

• Falcons (1-1) vs. Panthers (0-2), 1pm on FOX

• Texans (0-2) vs. Jaguars (1-1), 1pm on CBS

• Saints (0-2) vs. Seahawks (1-1), 4:05pm on CBS

• Cowboys (1-1) vs. Bears (0-2), 4:25pm on FOX

• Chiefs (0-2) vs. Giants (0-2), 8:20pm on NBC

4. Public Money

A First Look at Where Bettors Are Putting Money in NFL Week 3 Matchups

NFL

• Dolphins (+12.5, -110) vs. Bills (-12.5, -110): 87% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Buffalo

• Raiders (+3, -110) vs. Commanders (-3, -110): 78% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Washington

• Falcons (-4.5, -115) vs. Panthers (+4.5, -105): 78% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Packers (-8.5, -105) vs. Browns (+8.5, -115): 85% of the money and bets are with Green Bay

• Steelers (-1.5, -105) vs. Patriots (+1.5, -115): 63% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Pittsburgh

WNBA Playoffs

• Dream (-4, -112) vs. Fever (+4, -108): 53% of the money and 63% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Aces (-5, -112) vs. Storm (+5, -108): 77% of the money and 83% of the bets are with Las Vegas

MLB

• Mariners (-1.5, +116) vs. Royals (+1.5, -140): 66% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Kansas City

• Yankees (-1.5, +106) vs. Twins (+1.5, -128): 92% of the money and 72% of the bets are with New York

• Angels (+1.5, +104) vs. Brewers (-1.5, -125): 96% of the money and 87% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Marlins (-1.5, +104) vs. Rockies (+1.5, -125): 70% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Miami

• Cubs (+113) vs. Pirates (-137): 72% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Chicago

• Padres (+103) vs. Mets (-125): 51% of the money is with New York but 51% of the bets are with San Diego

• Blue Jays (-108) vs. Rays (-112): 70% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Toronto

• Reds (-122) vs. Cardinals (+101): The money is 50/50 but 73% of the money is with Cincinnati

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Raiders co-owner and FOX broadcaster Tom Brady was seen with a headset on in the Raiders’ coaching booth during last night’s game.

• Could officials struggling to follow the tush push eventually lead to the play being banned?

• In more quarterback injuries, the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy is out 2-4 weeks with an ankle injury and the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels could miss this Sunday’s game.

• Even the MLB teams at the top of the standings aren’t giving their fans much to be confident about as the postseason nears.

• LSU coach Brian Kelly apologized for his post-game press conference meltdown.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12:45pm: Athletic Club vs. Arsenal in Champions League on Paramount+ (6 UCL league phase matches today)

• 7:10pm: Padres vs. Mets on TBS

• 7:30pm: Dream vs. Fever on ESPN

• 9:30pm: Aces vs. Storm on ESPN

• 10:10pm: Phillies vs. Dodgers on TBS