In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The Champions League has kicked off

2. Bets to Watch: Rays’ Mangum has at least 1 single in 59% of his games

3. NFL Fantasy: 5 players trending up this week and 5 to be concerned about

4. Public Money: Where early NFL money is for Week 3

5. Overtime: The Chiefs are in a position they haven’t been in since 2018

1. Leading Off

The Champions League kicked off yesterday with 12 of the 36 teams in action — the other 24 play today and tomorrow. The competition runs through next May to crown soccer’s best club. In the League Phase, each team will play four home and four road matches between now and January, when 12 teams are eliminated, and the knockout round continues from there.

FanDuel gives three teams the best odds to win the trophy, with Arsenal, Barcelona and Liverpool all at +600. Reining champion PSG is at +650, followed by Real Madrid (+850), Manchester City (+950), Chelsea (+1200), Bayern Munich (+1200), and last season’s runner-up Inter, Napoli, and Tottenham (+2500). Barcelona and Liverpool lead the way to reach the final (+280), followed by PSG and Arsenal (+310), Real Madrid (+430) and Manchester City (+490).

Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé is the favorite to score the most goals in the tournament (+380), followed by Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (+850), Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski (+1100), Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (+1400), and Bayern’s Harry Kane and PSG’s Ousmane Dembélé (+1600).

• ESPN: A Reminder of How the New Format Works

• Yahoo Sports: Champions League Power Rankings

• Sports Illustrated: David Beckham Names ‘Surprise’ Contender

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Judge Averages 2.4 Bases Per Game This Year And Has A Good Matchup Today

By Todd Cordell

Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases (-107 at DraftKings)
Judge might send a ball to the shadow realm tonight. Taj Bradley has not had a good year, sporting an ERA near 5 through 132 innings of work and even spending some time in the minors prior to the trade to Minnesota. He leans heavily on a fastball-cutter combo when facing right-handed hitters, throwing one of the two on 87.5% of his pitches. Judge has feasted on each of them, hitting .289 or better with ISOs of at least .430 against each. Insane numbers. Judge has averaged 2.4 bases per game this year and is in good form, having gone over in four of his last six. Expect him to do so again.

Jake Mangum over 0.5 singles (-150 at FanDuel)
Mangum is one of the best singles producers in the majors. He has at least one in 59% of his games and rarely goes more than a couple without hitting one. Mangum enters this game amidst a three-game drought, making the .310 hitter against righties all the more appealing playing in a hitter-friendly park against a divisional opponent his team and coaching staff knows well. Not to mention, Kevin Gausman has allowed just two homers over his past five starts. He’s neutered power effectively of late, leading to more singles.

Vinnie Pasquantino over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-123 at DraftKings)
Pasquantino has gone on a few wildly productive runs this season. When he gets hot, he really gets hot, and he’s hot right now. He has averaged 2.6 H+R+R over his last 10 games and cleared his line in four of six. Bryce Miller has struggled mightily to slow down left-handed hitters this season, giving up a .254 ISO and 2.2 homers per nine innings. Look for Pasquantino to take advantage.

Colson Montgomery over 1.5 total bases (+155 at DraftKings)
Montgomery has gone quiet of late, hitting just one extra base hit over his last 10 games. He is in a good spot to right the ship Wednesday afternoon. Tyler Wells has only pitched 11.2 innings this season. His 2.31 ERA is impressive but his FIP sits at 3.92 and he has induced soft contact just 6% of the time. Put simply, opponents are making good contact and he’s not pitching as well as the counting stats would suggest. Despite this recent dry spell, Montgomery still owns an ISO above .300 vs. right-handed pitchers. Don’t be surprised if that power shows up today.

Brice Turang over 0.5 singles (-140 at FanDuel)
Turang has hit a single in 58% of his appearances and enters play in very good form at the dish. He’s recorded 24 hits over the last 20 games, hitting a single in 12 of them. He now draws Jose Soriano, a ground ball pitcher who has had singles account for nearly 74% of hits allowed this season. Soriano is unlikely to give up much power, making opponents take what they can get. That’s perfect for Turang’s single chances.

Ramon Laureano over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105 at DraftKings)
Laureano has excelled against pitchers of each handedness but he has performed a little better when facing lefties. He’s hit .286 with a .255 ISO, getting on base consistently while generating a lot of power as well. While Mets starter David Peterson has enjoyed a good year, things have really gone south of late. He has allowed at least three runs in five of his past seven starts and conceded 15 over his last five. Laureano has an ISO above .200 against each of Peterson’s most-used pitches, which should make it difficult to slow him down.

Josh Naylor over 0.5 singles (-120 at Bet365)
Naylor has a reputation as a real power threat but he loves a good old fashioned single. He’s hit one in 57% of all games this season and more than 68% of his hits have gone for just one base. A matchup against Cole Ragans sets up well for him as Ragans throws fastballs close to 55% of his pitches. Naylor has feasted on lefties throwing the fastball, hitting .325 on the year.

Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+100 at Bet365)
Soto has dominated right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .272 with an ISO approaching .300. Nick Pivetta is a very good one, of course, but he’s allowed multiple runs in three of his last four starts, only slowing down a sub .500 Reds team. Soto also has a good track record vs. Pivetta, hitting 4-15 with a double and a homer.

Willy Adames over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-135 at Bet365)
There’s a lot to like with Adames in this spot. Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has not had a good year in any sense, and his numbers are woeful against right-handed bats: They’ve hit an even .300 on the season with a .190 ISO. Adames has teed off on Pfaadt of late as well, going 4-7 with a pair of doubles and a home run. Adames possesses excellent power numbers against two of Pfaadt’s go-to pitches (fastball, sweeper). He should also benefit from playing in a much more hitter-friendly park than he is used to.

Heliot Ramos over 0.5 singles (-125 at Bet365)
It’s been an up and down season for Ramos but, through it all, he’s cleared this line at a healthy 55% rate. He’s hit for a better average, and less power, against right-handed pitching, which aids his chances of hitting a single. He also has a fantastic matchup against Pfaadt, who he is 4-8 against to date with three singles. After three straight games without one, this is a great spot to rebound.

3. NFL Fantasy Insights

5 Players to Start and 5 to Sit in Week 3 in the NFL

By Craig Williams

Down: Tetairoa McMillan
Don’t be swayed by the absence of Falcons’ top corner A.J. Terrell (hamstring). We still expect the Panthers to struggle offensively after losing two offensive lineman in a loss against the Cardinals. The Falcons found a pass rush on Sunday night, sacking Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy six times. Playing at home will help the Panthers some, but we’re concerned about Bryce Young having the necessary time to allow McMillan to have a big day.

Up: Justin Jefferson
No fantasy manager is going to sit Jefferson. But for DFS players and those with itchy trade fingers, keep in mind that Jefferson produced incredibly well with a number of quarterbacks under center. We’re not sweating J.J. McCarthy’s absence this week, especially with Jefferson going against his LSU teammate. Carson Wentz may not be anything to write home about, but there are worse backup quarterbacks in the league.

Up: Ja’Marr Chase
Chase will get to reunite with his former title-winning LSU runningmate, and he faces a similar challenge to Justin Jefferson as he’ll also catch passes from a backup quarterback. But like Jefferson, we expect Chase to continue producing catching passes from Jake Browning, who played 2.5 quarters in relief on Sunday, and helped Chase produce a monster 14-165-1 line on 16 targets.

Down: Garrett Wilson
We’re not jumping ship on Wilson yet, but his formula for success is simple: hog the modest passing volume the Jets produce on a weekly basis, and do so efficiently. Neither will be particularly easy against the Buccaneers making their 2025 home debut. Factor in that Justin Fields needs to pass concussion protocol, and the limited nature of backup Tyrod Taylor’s ability at this stage of his career, and Wilson has a steep hill to climb if he’s going to deliver a quality Week 3 outing.

Down: Terry McLaurin
Unlike Jefferson and Chase, we don’t maintain a high level of confidence in McLaurin producing at his level with Marcus Mariota potentially taking snaps. He only has seven catches on 13 targets two games into the season, perhaps a byproduct of his lengthy offseason absence. As productive as McLaurin was last season, it’s worth asking yourself if he’s currently a “set and forget” option for your lineup(s).

Up: Brock Bowers
This isn’t a reaction to the Commanders surrendering 21.4 half-PPR points to Tucker Kraft last week, but we expect Bowers to be better off after he still managed eight targets in Week 2 despite a banged up knee. He only managed 39 yards, so perhaps he was slowed, but we expect him to bounce back. The Raiders just don’t have  the luxury of not featuring Bowers if they expect to be competitive.

Down: Daniel Jones
This isn’t an overall selling of Jones, who seems like he may just have found a home; but we don’t expect him to produce to the same degree all season. He and the Colts will be hitting the road for the first time and playing their first division foe. Three of the last five meetings in Nashville finished under, and the Titans will have an extra game of film on Jones plus plenty of experience playing against a Shane Steichen offense.

Up: Caleb Williams
If head coach Ben Johnson is the real deal, Williams will come around and we’ll begin to see more consistent signs of his upside. We’re willing to be bullish on Williams against a Cowboys team that was just torched through the air by Russell Wilson and the Giants. Rome Odunze may not quite be Malik Nabers, but he’s off to a strong start, and one can argue that the Bears actually have more weapons to work with than the Giants did last week.

Down: Quinshod Judkins
Judkins’ grip on the Browns’ backfield will continue to grow stronger after he led the team with 13 touches against the Ravens in his NFL debut. But we’re not expecting an impressive encore against a Packers team that is allowing 2.4 yards per rush through two games. The Packers are fresh off of dominating the Lions and Commanders, and in theory, they shouldn’t have trouble turning the Browns into a one-dimensional offense.

Up: Javonte Williams
The Cowboys may appear to be susceptible against the pass, but the Bears have been soft against the run, allowing 5.3 yards per carry and 56 rush attempts overall — both marks are bottom-nine in the league. Williams racked up 18 opportunities (carries + targets) in Week 1 and 25 in Week 2, and we expect to see him handle another healthy workload in a favorable matchup.

4. Public Money

Early Bettors Are Heavily With Cowboys (+1.5) and Chiefs (-5.5)

NFL

• Colts (-3.5, -115) vs. Titans (+3.5, -105): 80% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Indianapolis

• Jets (+6.5, -112) vs. Buccaneers (-6.5, -108): 79% of the money and 73% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• Bengals (+3, -110) vs. Vikings (-3, -110): 53% of the money and 54% of the bets are with Cincinnati

• Texans (+1.5, -115) vs. Jaguars (-1.5, -105): 71% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Houston

• Saints (+7.5, -115) vs. Seahawks (-7.5, -105): 91% of the money and 78% of the bets are with Seattle

• Cowboys (+1.5, -115) vs. Bears (-1.5, -105): 91% of the money and 87% of the bets are with Dallas

• Chiefs (-5.5, -118) vs. Giants (+5.5, -104): 86% of the money and 74% of the bets are Kansas City

WNBA

• Mercury (+2.5, -108) vs. Liberty (-2.5, -112): 75% of the money and 79% of the bets are with New York

• Lynx (-10, -114) vs. Valkyries (+10, -106): 84% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Minnesota

MLB

• Cubs (-1.5, +116) vs. Pirates (+1.5, -140): 82% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Chicago

• Braves (-1.5, +112) vs. Nationals (+1.5, -134): 66% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Athletics (+1.5, -138) vs. Red Sox (-1.5, +115): 87% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Boston

• Angels (+1.5, -130) vs. Brewers (-1.5, +108): 93% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Yankees (-1.5, +100) vs. Twins (+1.5, -120): 93% of the money and 79% of the bets are with New York

• Marlins (-1.5, +100) vs. Rockies (+1.5, -120): 77% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Miami

5. Overtime

In the News 

• The NFL said Tom Brady didn’t violate any rules during Monday Night Football.

• The Chiefs have their longest odds to win the AFC West since 2018 — before Patrick Mahomes took his first snap.

• CBS Sports ranks its current bottom 25 college football teams.

• Cal Raleigh broke a Mickey Mantle-held record last night.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12:35pm: Cubs vs. Pirates on MLB Network (followed by Giants vs. Diamondbacks at 3:40pm)

• 3pm: Ajax vs. Inter in Champions League action on CBSSN (plus another 5 UCL league phase matches today on Paramount+ starting at 12:45pm)

• 6:40pm: Guardians vs. Tigers on FS1

• 8pm: Mercury vs. Liberty on ESPN (followed by Lynx vs. Valkries at 10pm)

• 10:10pm: Phillies vs. Dodgers on MLB Network