In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The MLB playoff push is on

2. Bets to Watch: Can Miami’s offense keep Fins within 2 touchdowns?

3. Thursday Night Football: Tagovailoa is 1-8 against the Bills

4. Public Money: Where bettors are putting their money ahead of college football Saturday

5. Overtime: The impact of college football’s new transfer portal

1. Leading Off

With 10 regular season games left for most MLB teams, playoff placement is coming down to the wire. The Phillies have won the NL East and the Brewers and Cubs are going to the playoffs, but the other nine postseason spots and five division crowns are still undecided.

In the AL East, the Blue Jays are up four games on the Yankees, who are two games up on the Red Sox. The Tigers are 4.5 games up on the Guardians in the AL Central, and the Astros are a half-game ahead of the Mariners and 5 in front of the Rangers in the AL West. The Yankees lead the AL Wild Card race, with the Astros and Red Sox currently in and Guardians (-2.5), winners of an MLB-leading six straight, and Rangers (-4.5) just behind.

The NL East is decided (the Phillies are up 12.5 over the reeling Mets, losers of 9 of 11), the Brewers are 5 ahead of the Cubs for the NL Central, and the Dodgers are 2 ahead of the Padres in the NL West. The Cubs are up big in the NL Wild Card, and the Padres and Mets are currently holding down playoffs spots. The Diamondbacks are 1.5 back of New York, and the Reds and Giants are both 2 out as of this morning.

MLB.com has a look at what the playoff bracket would be if the season ended today.

—Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Miami’s Offense Came Alive in Week 2, But Is It Enough to Stay With Buffalo?

By Chris Farley

Dolphins +12.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
There’s a ton of negative press coming out of Miami. Some of that is well founded and justified, some of it isn’t. Offensively, there was much to appreciate in Week 2. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 315 yards at a 9.8 yards per pass clip. Tyreek Hill finally caught a ball over 30 yards and eclipsed 100 yards receiving, too. Their defense was another story. New England gained 18 first downs and 333 total yards, going 7-12 on third down conversions and 3-4 in the red zone, all this in South Florida. That's not a good sign when you're headed up to Buffalo against one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. But the Dolphins are also 0-2, ultra desperate, and the Bills' defense is injured this week (Ed Oliver and Matt Milano are both out). We like Miami to hang in.

Dolphins vs. Bills over 49.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
Somewhat shockingly, this number hasn't moved much all week. We think that's a flaw in the market. Sure, heading up North on a short week isn't easy for any program, especially one with institutional issues like Miami. But their offense looked more like its old self in Week 2, producing 358 yards on 6.9 yards per play. A perfect recipe for more points, their defense hasn't caught up, in two weeks making the Colts and Patriots look like juggernauts. On Thursday they'll travel to face the NFL's most productive offense through the same span (900 yards), a group that showed its prolific nature through the air in Week 1 and on the ground in Week 2. Since we don't see how Miami can slow down Buffalo and Miami's offense is capable, we love the over.

Bills over 31.5 points (+102 at DraftKings)
We're doubling down on Buffalo's production. The Ravens are a legitimate defense with arguably the most talented secondary in the NFL; it mattered not in Week 1. Josh Allen was again a one-man show, throwing for 394 yards and running for another 30, scoring four total touchdowns. In Week two Buffalo battled a Jets' run defense that seemed formidable a week prior, holding Pittsburgh to just 53 yards on the ground. On Sunday, Buffalo responded by bullying New York's front seven, totaling 224 rushing yards and three touchdowns to boot. Miami has shown zero signs of defensive prowess, easily capitulating to Indianapolis and New England and permitting 751 yards and 66 points in two weeks. The Bills could drop 50 here and we wouldn't bat an eye.

Tua Tagovailoa over 235.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Tagovailoa and the Fins haven't had an easy two weeks. Constantly answering tough questions in press conferences following painstaking losses, motivation is high for Tagovailoa and his teammates to figure out their issues. Last week was a good sign that they're getting closer. Tagovailoa completed 26 out of 32 passes (81%), the kind of efficiency we've been used to seeing from the former Alabama quarterback. Tyreek Hill and Devon Achane, Miami's most prolific pass-catchers last week, combined for 14 catches and 201 receiving yards. Hill gained a staggering 18.2 yards per catch. The Bills' pass defense is above average, but their best edge rusher is out Thursday (Ed Oliver), as well as their best linebacker (Matt Milano), and recently Tua has played his best at Orchard Park (50/63, 513 yards, three touchdowns in his last two starts). 

Josh Allen over 29.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
We rewatched the Patriots vs. Dolphins game on Tuesday to see just how bad Miami's defense really was. It was worse than we thought. The Dolphins eventually found a way to sack Drake Maye three times, but that was mostly due to the young quarterback's lack of pocket awareness. In general, Miami has one of the worst pass-rushes we've seen through two games. As a total defense, they rank 30th according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, Buffalo's offensive line is even better than advertised, with even right guard O’Cyrus Torrence proving his merit, permitting zero pressures last Sunday. The Bills' front allowed just six total pressures, too. When Allen can't find a receiver, he'll have plenty of room to take off. 

MLB

Blue Jays moneyline (-118 at BetOnline)
There’s a lot to like about the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday. Remaining ahead of the pack in the AL East, Toronto still has plenty of motivation to keep winning. They’re offense has been up to par, ranking in the top five in home runs, runs, and RBI since August 1. On Thursday they’ll start Chris Bassett (3.90 ERA over 166 innings), who’s been mostly steady all season, allowing just 1.19 home runs per nine innings. Tampa's starter, Shane Baz (5.15 ERA over 157  innings) has lost much of his command, permitting seven runs in his past seven innings. We like Toronto to roll.

Padres moneyline (+114 at Bovada)
It’s a quick turnaround when the opening pitch is just 15 hours after the last contest, which always favors the better pitcher. In that case, the Padres are far better positioned. In his past five starts, Randy Vasquez has shown great command, permitting just two runs per game. Mets starter Jonah Tong (8.49 ERA in 11 innings) has already been humbled in short stints. The 22-year-old has allowed 14 runs in 11 innings, instantly losing command in his latest showing versus Texas, where he was pulled after granting the Rangers six runs in less than an inning. Needless to say, we don’t feel great about the Mets chances. Bullpen game or not, we're dumbfounded by this price.

Tigers -1.5 (+110 at Bovada)
Despite Detroit’s commanding lead in the AL Central, Cleveland has already won their season series, edging out five wins. Thursday figures to be the exception. Once again, Tarik Skubal (2.26 ERA over 183 innings) is one of the premier pitchers in baseball, permitting just a 0.83 home run per nine inning allowance along with a commanding 80.5% left on base rate over 183 innings. In his starts, Detroit beat Cleveland by a combined score of 12-2. The Guardians will unleash Tanner Bibee (4.40 ERA over 170 innings), who nearly had a no hitter against the White Sox last Friday, but in general still shows a lack of command too often. We like the Tigers to take care of business.

Mariners vs. Rockies over 10.5 runs (-114 at DraftKings)
Coors Field is known for its prolific scoreboards. We doubt Thursday will be any different. At home, Colorado games have consistently soared into double digits, more than 10 runs in six of the past nine contests at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. On the one hand, this angle is obvious because of the pitchers occupying the mound. Sandy Alcantara has frequently lost command, resulting in the left on base rate that’s nearing 50% (currently at 60%). Tanner Gordon has his own struggles, permitting too many homers (1.5 per game) and posting the same left on base percentage (60.7%). Miami has been a top 10 offense since August 1, and we’re counting on them to catalyze points.

Brewers -1.5 (+120 at Bovada)
It’s been a little shaky for the team with the best record in baseball lately, losers of four out of their last seven battles. Thursday presents an opportunity for them to get right. Quinn Priester (3.25 ERA over 146 innings) has been solid this season, keeping home runs to just one per game and boasting a fabulous left on base rate (79.5%). Yusei Kikuchi (4.08 ERA over 167 innings) has been up and down all year, lately more down than up. The 34-year-old has regressed as the season weighs on, permitting five runs or more than three of his past five starts. Milwaukee hasn’t been quite as potent since the start of August, but there’s still top five in RBIs and slugging percentage.

3. Thursday Night Football

Buffalo Has Won 13 of 14 Against Miami, Tagovailoa is 1-8 Against Bills

The Bills head into Thursday night’s clash with the Dolphins riding a six-game win streak in the rivalry, including every home meeting since 2016. Buffalo must work around key defensive injuries, while Miami looks to build on last week’s offensive explosion and snap its winless start.

Dolphins (0-2) vs. Bills (2-0)
8:15pm ET on Prime Video

• Spread: Bills (-12.5, -112), Dolphins (+12.5, -108)

• Moneyline: Bills -850, Dolphins +575

• Total (49.5): Over -112, Under -108

Public Money

• Spread: 67% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Buffalo

• Moneyline: 69% of the money and 94% of the bets are with Buffalo

• Total: 67% of the money and 62% of the bets are on the over

Players to Watch

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen: The quarterback has torched Miami with 40 passing and 5 rushing TDs; his dual-threat game remains the engine of Buffalo’s offense.

• Keon Coleman: After posting 29 catches for 556 yards and four touchdowns through his first NFL season, Coleman is now Buffalo’s main outside target and has 11 receptions for 138 yards with a score through two games in 2025.

• Gregory Rousseau: With injuries mounting, his edge pressure and run containment are critical against Miami’s speed.

Miami Dolphins

• Tyreek Hill: One of the league’s premier deep threats when he’s on, Hill will look to exploit a shorthanded Bills secondary.

• De’Von Achane: Averaging 117 scrimmage yards and 1.5 TDs per game vs. Buffalo, he’s been a consistent problem for the Bills’ front.

• Tua Tagovailoa: In nine career games against Buffalo, Tagovailoa is 1-8 as the starter with 1,830 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, a 64.8% completion rate.

4. Public Money

Bettors are Behind Road Underdog Illini (+6.5), Against UNC (+6.5) at UCF

CFB

• No. 17 Texas Tech (+2.5, +100) vs. No. 16 Utah (-2.5, -122): 66% of the money and 65% of the bets are with the Red Raiders

• No. 21 Michigan (-2.5, -112) vs. Nebraska (+2.5, -108): 70% of the money and 74% of the bets are with the Wolverines

• No. 22 Auburn (+6.5, -110) vs. No. 11 Oklahoma (-6.5, -110): 87% of the money and 79% of the bets are with the Sooners

• South Carolina (+9.5, +100) vs. No. 23 Missouri (-9.5, -122): 53% of the money and 51% of the bets are with the Tigers

• Florida (+7.5, -115) vs. No. 4 Miami (-7.5, -105): 82% of the money and 83% of the bets are with the Hurricanes

• No. 9 Illinois (+6.5, -114) vs. No. 19 Indiana (-6.5, -106): 78% of the money and 79% of the bets are with the Illini

• Michigan State (+18.5, -115) vs. No. 25 USC (-18.5, -105): 68% of the money is with the Trojans but 52% of the bets are with the Spartans

• SMU (+6.5, -102) vs. TCU (-6.5, -120): 76% of the money and 64% of the bets are with the Horned Frogs

• North Carolina (+6.5, -105) vs. UCF (-6.5, -115): 60% of the money and 51% of the bets are with the Knights

• NC State (+3.5, -112) vs. Duke (-3.5, -108): 65% of the money and 75% of the bets are with the Wolfpack

• Arizona State (+2.5, -110) vs. Baylor (-2.5, -110): 62% of the money and 66% of the bets are with the Bears

WNBA

• Fever (+7.5, -112) vs. Dream (-7.5, -108): 71% of the money is with Atlanta but 57% of the bets are with Indiana

• Storm (+8.5, -114) vs. Aces (-8.5, -106): 82% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Las Vegas

MLB

• Guardians (+1.5, -125) vs. Tigers (-1.5, +104): 91% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Detroit

• Mariners (-1.5, +128) vs. Royals (+1.5, -154): 80% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Seattle

• Yankees (-1.5, -126) vs. Orioles (+1.5, +105): 93% of the money and 84% of the bets are with New York

• Angels (+1.5, -137) vs. Brewers (-1.5, +114): 97% of the money and 91% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Padres (+121) vs. Mets (-148): 52% of the money is with San Diego but 52% of the bets are with New York

• Blue Jays (-131) vs. Rays (+108): 90% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Toronto

5. Overtime

In the News 

• The Commanders are officially moving back to Washington.

• In more quarterback injury news, Justin Fields won’t play Sunday due to a concussion (Tyrod Taylor gets the start), and the earliest Jayden Daniels will practice is Friday.

• 38-year-old Lionel Messi is reportedly close to signing a new multiyear contract to stay in Miami.

• How the NCAA’s new transfer portal window will impact college football.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 1:10pm: Padres vs. Mets on MLB Network

• 3pm: Manchester City vs. Napoli on Paramount+ (one of six Champions League matchups beginning at 12:45pm)

• 7:15pm: Cubs vs. Reds or Yankees vs. Orioles on FOX

• 7:30pm: Fever vs. Dream on ESPN 2 (followed by Storm vs. Aces at 9:30pm) or Rice vs. Charlotte in college football action on ESPN

• 8:15pm: Dolphins vs. Bills on Prime Video

• 10:10pm: Giants vs. Dodgers vs. MLB Network