In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The struggling Dolphins

2. Bets to Watch: Iowa’s defense has given up just 30 points this season

3. Game of the Day: Phoenix can take out defending champs at home

4. Public Money: Where bettors have their college football and MLB money today

5. Overtime: The Clippers and Steve Ballmer face even more questions

1. Leading Off

The Dolphins beat the spread but lost to the Bills to fall to 0-3 on the season. While Miami has improved from its disastrous Week 1 defeat to Indianapolis, after this latest loss quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said there are “No moral victories, that's for sure.”

Before the season began, the Dolphins were listed at +225 to make the playoffs. They’ve fallen to +920 — just the Giants and Saints have worse odds. But reports before the game indicated that owner Stephen Ross isn’t planning on firing head coach Mike McDaniel anytime soon.

Miami gets the 0-2 Jets at home next week then travels to the 0-2 Panthers. You have to believe that Ross expects his team to be 2-3 after that stretch. If not, his patience with his head coach, and maybe even quarterback, could end.

—Abe Rakov

2. Bets to Watch

Iowa’s Defense Has Given Up Just 30 Points Through 3 Games

By Todd Cordell

Mark Gronowski over 29.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Gronowski is not off to a torrid offensive start through the air. He has enjoyed success on the ground, though, rushing for at least 37 yards in two of three games thus far. The exception came last week against UMass in a game the Hawkeyes led 20-0 after a quarter and 30-7 at half. With the game well in hand, there was no need for Gronowski to get aggressive with his legs and try to move the ball in that manner. On the road against a competitive Rutgers team, he should have to rely on his legs more often.

Iowa Hawkeyes moneyline (-130 at Bet365)
Rutgers has piled up the points through their first three games, scoring 139 in total. They’ve yet to face a single competent defense, let alone one of Iowa’s caliber. The Hawkeyes have given up just 30 points and more than half of them came against No. 12 Iowa State. The Hawkeyes defense should cause Rutgers problems and I expect Gronowski, be it through the air or on the ground, to help them move the ball and put up some points in this game.

Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State under 54.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
This has the makings of a lower scoring game than the market anticipates. Tulsa is not a good offensive side, ranking outside the top-90 in EPA per play on both pass attempts and rushes. They also own a sub 40% success rate on 3rd and 4th downs, leading to a lot of stalled possessions and punts. The Cowboys have performed miserably on offense while rushing 33% more frequently (yes, 33%) than expected despite sitting 86th in EPA per rush. Put simply, they run a lot but not well. That helps chew clock as well, giving us a lot of outs on this under.

MLB

Jarren Duran over 1.5 total bases (+124 at DraftKings)
Duran has recorded multiple bases in six of his last nine games. He now gets the luxury of playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league at George M. Steinbrenner field. While Drew Rasmussen is a very good pitcher, Duran profiles well against him. Duran owns ISOs above .200 against both of his most-used pitchers. He also owns a .222 ISO vs. righties across the board. There is some power in his bat and he possesses a lot of speed as well, giving him a real chance to record multiple bases if he can find a gap in the outfield.

Jeremy Pena over 0.5 singles (-107 at DraftKings)
Pena has hit a single in 57% of his appearances this season. His numbers have soared at home, where he’s gotten the job done in 66% of his games. He draws a tough matchup against Bryan Woo but one he’s well equipped to handle. Woo throws a ton of sinkers and fastballs, with one of the two accounting for more than 70% of his pitches vs. right-handed bats. Pena has a .305 average against the sinker and has hit .326 against fastballs, making him a likely candidate to produce.

J.T. Realmuto over 0.5 singles (-140 at FanDuel)
There’s a lot to like with Realmuto in this spot. He has feasted on right-handed pitching this year, posting a .284 average to date. More than 73% of his hits against righties have gone for just one base. Realmuto should benefit from playing in such a hitter-friendly ballpark in Arizona. Even more so, facing Ryne Nelson. He throws fastballs on more than 60% of his pitches and Realmuto owns a .297 average against that pitch. 

Spencer Torkelson over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-111 at DraftKings)
Torkelson enters play in good form, having cleared this line in four of the last five while averaging 2.8 H+R+R. He is in a great spot to build on that success against Bryce Elder. He’s been torched by right-handed bats all year, allowing an alarmingly high .307 average with a .200 ISO to boot. He is sporting a 5.56 ERA and has given up at least five runs in four of his past 10 starts, showing real blow-up potential. After scoring just six runs in three games, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Tigers match that tonight. Expect Torkelson to play a big part.

Maikel Garcia over 0.5 singles (-110 at DraftKings)
Garcia is hitting .285 against right-handed pitching on the season and he’s singled in 54% of his games, including four of his last six. He is in a sneaky good spot to build on that vs. Max Scherzer, who has been giving up runs in bulk of late — allowing four in three of his past four starts. The lone exception was a two run effort when facing an AL East bottomfeeder in the Orioles. Scherzer’s go-to pitch is the fastball, and Garcia owns a higher average against it than anything else in his arsenal. 

Daulton Varsho over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-110 at Bet365)
Varsho has hit for insane power against right-handed pitching this season, owning a .404 ISO through 173 at bats. He’s been at his best — by far —against the changeup, hitting .371 with a .741 ISO. It just so happens Michael Lorenzen throws that almost as much as any other pitch. The fastball is the only pitch Lorenzen uses more and Varsho has a .291 ISO with seven homers against it. Expect Varsho to make noise at the dish in this one.

Jackson Holliday over 0.5 singles (-123 at DraftKings)
Yankees starter Will Warren is not in good form. He’s allowed 5.8 hits per game over his last five and an average of three earned runs along the way. Opponents are generating plenty of offense against him. He’s particularly struggled against left-handed bats, and that’s been the case all season long. Lefties are hitting .270 vs. Warren with 57 singles, nearly 20 more than he’s conceded against righties. Holliday owns a .267 average when facing right-handed pitchers and is 2-5 vs. Warren with a pair of singles.

3. Game of the Day

Mercury (-2.5) Favored to Beat the Champs in Decisive Game 3 at Home

The Liberty and Mercury face off tonight in a winner-take-all Game 3 at PHX Arena, with the defending champions suddenly fighting to keep their season alive. Phoenix evened the best-of-three series on Wednesday with an 86-60 rout at Barclays Center (the Liberty’s worst home playoff loss in franchise history) after dropping Game 1 in overtime. The winner will advance to meet the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals.

No. 5 Liberty vs. No. 4 Mercury
9pm ET on ESPN2

• Spread: Mercury -2.5 (-114), Liberty +2.5 (-106)

• Moneyline: Mercury -152, Liberty +124

• Total (155.5): Over -112, Under -108

Public Money

• Spread: 79% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Phoenix

• Moneyline: 61% of the money is with Phoenix but 51% of the bets are with New York

• Total: 81% of the money and 53% of the bets are on the under

Players to Watch

New York Liberty

• Sabrina Ionescu: The All-Star guard has yet to find her rhythm in this series, shooting just 3-13 from the field and 1-for-8 from deep in Game 2. Most surprising has been her free-throw struggles: after hitting 93% during the regular season, she opened Game 2 with four straight misses and finished 2-6.

• Breanna Stewart: Battling a sprained MCL suffered in Game 1, Stewart was limited to six points and two rebounds in 20 minutes in Game 2, snapping her streak of 44 straight playoff games in double figures. The two-time MVP, who averaged 18.3 points and 6.6 rebounds this season, is admittedly frustrated after the game, saying “I just wasn’t where I wanted to be today, and I have 48 hours to figure it out.”

Phoenix Mercury

• Satou Sabally: After a rough 2-17 shooting night in the opener, Sabally bounced back with 15 points, seven rebounds, four assists and four steals in Game 2, igniting the second-quarter surge that broke the game open. Averaging 16.3 points this season, the versatile 6-foot-4 forward will be central to Phoenix’s chances in front of the home crowd.

• Alyssa Thomas: Phoenix’s engine continues to power the team on both ends. In Game 2 she added 15 points, seven assists and six rebounds while shooting efficiently. Despite playing through torn labrums in both shoulders for years, her leadership and triple-double potential give the Mercury a reliable anchor as they chase their first semifinal berth since 2021.

4. Public Money

Bettors are Behind Iowa on the Road Against Resurgent Rutgers

College Football

• Tulsa (+10.5, -110) vs. Oklahoma State (-10.5, -110): 59% of the money and 66% of the bets are with the Cowboys

• Iowa (-130) vs. Rutgers (+110): 84% of the money and 67% of the bets are with the Hawkeyes

MLB

• Nationals (+1.5, -128) vs. Mets (-1.5, +106): 98% of the money and 80% of the bets are with New York

• Padres (-1.5, -113) vs. White Sox (+1.5, -106): 95% of the money and 80% of the bets are with San Diego

• Cubs (-117) vs. Reds (-104): 71% of the money and 75% of the bets are with Chicago

• Athletics (-115) vs. Pirates (-105): 93% of the money and 69% of the bets are with the Athletics

• Atlanta (-101) vs. Tigers (-121): 55% of the money is with Atlanta but 64% of the bets are with Detroit

• Yankees (-124) vs. Orioles (+102): 79% of the money and 78% of the bets are with New York

• Red Sox (-133) vs. Rays (+109): 93% of the money and 78% of the bets are with Boston

• Blue Jays (-132) vs. Royals (+109): 93% of the money and 80% of the bets are with Toronto

• Guardians (-105) vs. Twins (-115): 86% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Cleveland

• Brewers (-121) vs. Cardinals (-101): 96% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Milwaukee

5. Overtime

In the News 

• More payments from Steve Ballmer and the Clippers to Aspiration are leading to more questions about the Kawhi Leonard payments.

• The NFL said the Eagles should have been penalized for a false start before a crucial tush-push against the Chiefs.

• Dodgers' star pitcher Clayton Kershaw announced he’s retiring after this season.

• The Fever won a playoff series even without Caitlin Clark.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 6:40pm: Cubs vs. Reds on MLB Network

• 8pm: Iowa vs. Rutgers on FOX

• 9pm: Liberty vs. Mercury at 9pm on ESPN2

• 9:40pm: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks on MLB Network