10 Bets to Watch Today + NFL Week 4 Fantasy Insights

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Another NFL (rookie) backup QB is reportedly getting a start

2. Bets to Watch: Soto has averaged 3.1 H+R+R a game over his last 20

3. NFL Fantasy: The Eagles’ rushing attack is just 14th in yards per game

4. Overtime: Robots are coming to MLB

1. Leading Off

Yet another backup quarterback looks set to get a start in the NFL this week, but this time it’s not because of an injury. Giants rookie Jaxson Dart is reportedly replacing veteran Russell Wilson after just three games.

Giants fans have been clamoring for Dart to get the nod over Wilson basically since the Ole Miss product was drafted with the 25th pick just a month after Wilson agreed to a one-year, $10.5 million deal with New York. Dart had an eye-opening preseason, and while Wilson had a 450-yard performance against the Cowboys just a Sunday ago, he couldn’t stop the rookie’s momentum to keep his spot in the lineup.

Dart has come in for six plays in the past two games in specific packages designed for him — and got cheered by his home fans while Wilson was booed. DraftKings has Dart’s passing yards total at 193.5 (Over/Under -112), and 1+ pass TD at -267 (2+ is +206), 30+ pass attempts at -153 (32+ is +108), and 20+ completions at +114.

Head coach Brian Daboll, whose job is very much on the line, must have thought he had to do something to create any kind of spark for a team that has lost 14 of its last 15 regular season games. The 0-3 Giants are 6.5-point home underdogs against the undefeated Chargers (1pm on CBS).

—Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Judge, Averaging 2.3 Bases/Game, Gets White Sox Bullpen Matchup Today

By Todd Cordell

Jose Ramirez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-120 at Bet365)
The Guardians have been unstoppable in recent weeks and the bat of Ramirez is a big reason why. He has averaged 2.4 H+R+R per game over the last 20 while going over his total on 14 different occasions. That’s a healthy 70% hit success rate. I’m not sure Jack Flaherty will be the one to slow him down. He has not performed as well against left-handed hitters and predominantly throws fastballs, which is not a recipe for success against Ramirez. He has hit .278 with a .304 ISO and remarkably low 9.6% whiff rate when facing fastballs from righties this year.

Gleyber Torres over 0.5 singles (-110 at DraftKings)
Torres has stacked up seven singles over his last five games and is in a good spot to hit another Wednesday night. He’ll face Tanner Bibee, who he has excelled against with five hits through just 12 at bats. Bibee throws a lot of cutters when facing right-handed bats, playing right into the hands of Torres. He owns a .317 average — but .073 ISO — against the pitch, meaning he’s hitting it very effectively but for little power. That bodes well for his single chances.

Brandon Lowe over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+102 at DraftKings)
Orioles starter Tyler Wells has only allowed four runs through three starts, but he’s more hittable than those results suggest. His FIP (3.94) is nearly double his ERA (2.04) in that span, indicating regression could be coming. Two of the three opponents were also bad offensive teams in the White Sox and Pirates. Lowe has recorded multiple H+R+R in 66% of his away games this season and has managed ISOs of .233 or higher against each of Wells’ three most-used pitches. He should be able to make noise in this matchup.

Jake Mangum over 0.5 singles (-135 at FanDuel)
Mangum is sporting an impressive .307 average against right-handed pitchers this season. He has piled up the singles and done his best work on the road, where he’s hit nine singles over his last nine games. Like Lowe, he also profiles very well against Wells. He leans heavily on changeups, fastballs, and cutters. Mangum owns averages of .266, .276, and .583 when facing those pitches. After a couple single-less performances, look for Mangum to get back on track in this spot.

Sal Frelick over 0.5 singles (+110 at Bet365)
Frelick has a single in 85 of 138 appearances this season, good for a healthy 62% success rate. He owns a .286 average vs. righties and 72% of his hits have gone for singles. While Dylan Cease is a good pitcher, that hasn’t been a problem for Frelick in the past. He’s 3-7 against Cease with all three hits going for one base. At plus money, this is a generous price for one of the league’s most consistent single hitters.

Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases (-115 at Bet365)
Judge hasn’t hit for a lot of power of late, in large part due to cautious pitching from opponents. Even so, he has still averaged 2.3 total bases per game on the year. He’s a priority target on a daily basis and no exception should be made heading into a matchup vs. the White Sox. They are going with a bullpen game tonight, meaning Judge is likely to see a different arm every time he steps into the box. It is unlikely 4-5 different pitchers all have their best stuff or have the tools needed to get Judge out. It’s also worth noting the White Sox bullpen has been unable to keep the ball on the ground, owning the 5th-highest flyball rate over the past 30 days. If Judge is able to put the ball in the air, it may not land.

Nico Hoerner over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-127 at DraftKings)
Hoerner is a model of consistency in the H+R+R market. He has a 64% clear rate on the season and is playing some of his best ball, having gone over the number in eight of the last 10 and 14 of the past 20. He is in a good spot to build on those outputs against Jonah Tong and the Mets. Tong has allowed a .343 average to right-handed bats this year and the bullpen has surrendered a lot of hits of late, making Nico a real threat each time he comes up to the plate.

Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105 at Bet365)
Soto has been unstoppable in his quest to get the Mets into the playoffs. Legitimately unstoppable. He has produced 3.1 H+R+R per game over his last 20 while going over this line 16 times, good for an 80% success rate. He now draws a struggling Matthew Boyd, who has conceded four runs or more in five of his past six starts; only holding up against a bad Nationals team. Win or lose, Soto has been ultra productive for the Mets on a nightly basis. There’s no reason to expect that to change against Boyd.

Jarren Duran over 1.5 total bases (+119 at DraftKings)
Duran has shown a good mix of contact ability and power vs. right-handed pitching, hitting .279 with a .214 ISO on the year. Those skills should be on full display against Max Scherzer on Wednesday night. The veteran righty has struggled mightily of late, allowing 4+ runs in four of five while sporting a 9.45 ERA over the last 30 days. Scherzer throws a lot of fastballs and changeups, both of which Duran handles well. He has a higher ISO vs. fastballs than any other pitch in Scherzer’s arsenal while his highest average comes against the changeup. Look for Duran to make noise in this big divisional clash.

Corbin Carroll over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+102 at Bet365)
Carroll is a cheat code against the fastball, even when facing left-handed pitchers. He possesses a mouthwatering .348 average to go with a .478 ISO against fastballs thrown by lefties. It just so happens Blake Snell is fastball first and throws it nearly 45% of his pitches against left-handed hitters. Carroll has averaged 2.5 H+R+R over the past 20 games and feasts on Snell’s go-to pitch, setting him up well for success even in this difficult matchup.

3. NFL Fantasy Insights

The Williams-Johnson Partnership is Quickly Showing Dividends

By Chris Farley

Kyler Murray ⬇️
At this point of the season, the Seahawks don't stand out as one of the best passing defenses in the league. They're 20th in opponent pass yards per game (221.7) and allow a 66.67% completion rate to enemy throwers (22nd). Arizona's issue will become Murray's issue, however, since their stalwart running back, James Conner, is now out for the season. Seattle is also very good against the run, permitting just 3.2 yards per carry (3rd). With Seattle focusing more energy on Murray, who will have even more ownership over Arizona's production, we project a below-average performance from a quarterback who's only averaging 180.6 pass yards per game.

Carson Wentz ⬇️
Last week we loved Wentz in his first start for Minnesota and it paid dividends. The former Eagles' starter was a solid 14-20 for 173 yards on 8.7 yards per pass in Week 3, good enough against a Bengals' squad that found itself in an early hole. We have serious doubts Wentz can get close to 200 yards in Dublin. Pittsburgh's defense, to be fair, has not been well, allowing 8.5 yards per pass (28th) and 25.7 points per game (22nd) to opponents. But last week was the first time the Steelers' defense looked like itself, wreaking havoc on the Patriots (five sacks, eight QB hits, five forced turnovers), and the muck of Dublin isn't exactly an atmosphere for scoring.

Josh Allen ⬆️
Obviously Josh Allen is off to another MVP start. He has seven total touchdowns, 869 total yards, and he has yet to turn it over. But with a spread this high (Buffalo is -16), even the Bills know they're expected to win this game. The Saints, on the other hand, will enter Week 4 with great urgency, yet to win a game but competitive until last Sunday. New coach Kellen Moore has prepared his offense well, resulting in some better rankings than we previously thought possible (they're 19th in yards per game, 18th in pass yards). That means Allen will need to compete, and the Saints' defense (25th or worse in every major category) won't be able to contain him.

C.J. Stroud ⬇️
Through three weeks, arguably no offense has looked as anemic as the Houston Texans. Challenged by a new offensive coordinator and shallow offensive line, C.J. Stroud has battled hard but failed to live up to expectations, ranking 26th in QBR (40.1) with only two touchdowns to his name. On Sunday they'll host the Titans in their second straight divisional matchup, against a Titans' defense that's due to positive regress. Tennessee is a developing team and therefore one of the worst programs in the NFL, but their defense has had to contend with three exceptional offenses with exceptional offensive lines so far (DEN, LAR, IND). They have plenty of talent to slow down Stroud and Company.

Jahmyr Gibbs ⬇️
Monday Night Football was a display of a Lions' franchise the country has grown to love. On both sides of the ball, they shocked the Ravens' faithful in Baltimore, clearly the more buttoned up operation. Their defense has a plus-matchup on Sunday, but we can't say the same for their offense. Sure, they're indoors, but Cleveland's defensive line is proving its the best in the NFL, leading the league in sack-rate (12.5% of plays) and opponent yards per game (204.3).They're particularly stout against the run, permitting just 2.3 yards per carry. The big boys of Detroit's front thrived in Week 3, but Week 4 is an entirely different animal.

Baker Mayfield ⬆️
There is no doubt that the Philadelphia Eagles are right back where they were last season. They are a successful 3-0 outfit, mostly in ugly fashion, but Philly has an intangible edge that's hard to explain: they just know how to win. Their defense has also been flawed. Last week Matthew Stafford threw all over their secondary in the first half and the Rams stacked up 160 yards on the ground, too. Philly's defense slowed down the Rams in the second half, but this season they're just 18th in opponent yards per game (319). Mayfield has been on fire in three wins. He's 6th in QBR and tied for 5th with six touchdowns, and he's beaten the Birds before.

Saquon Barkley ⬇️
The Eagles' offensive line is their secret weapon, an elite force that mauls opponents while moving like they're in a synchronized dance. It's terrifying. On Sunday they might meet their match, though, particularly in the run-game. Philly's rushing attack is already pedestrian compared to last season, ranked 24th in yards per carry (3.7) and 14th in rush yards per game (122). In Week 4 they travel to Tampa against a defense that's been one of the best against the run for seasons on end, already ranked in the top-six in rush defense and in third, fourth, and red-zone conversions. Energized by former Eagle, Haasan Reddick, this is less than ideal circumstances for Barkley.

Jaxson Dart ⬇️
If the reports are true, Sunday will mark the first appearance of the Giants' first-round draft pick, a quarterback who already has New York/New Jersey buzzing, despite the fact that he has yet to start a real NFL game. Still, we get the excitement since Russell Wilson mostly looked awful against good defenses and Dart was impressive in the preseason. Unfortunately, his first opponent will be a very difficult test. The Chargers are one of the NFL's premiere passing defenses through three weeks, fifth in opponent completion percentage (57.94%) and second in opponent yards per pass (5.5). Jim Harbaugh's defense flies to and around the ball, which won't make anything easy for the rookie's first showing.

Caleb Williams ⬆️
Williams is coming off the best game of his second season, throwing 19-28 for 298 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in a win against Dallas last weekend. It appears the ongoing experiment with new coach Ben Johnson and the uber-talented quarterback could be starting to blossom, and on Sunday they'll battle a very similar defense. The Raiders looked awful in all three phases of football in Week 3, getting throttled 41-24 in Landover, Maryland. It was a shockingly poor performance by their defense, a group that allowed 400 total yards on 7.4 yards per play to Marcus Mariota and company. With momentum on his side, Williams should have another good performance incoming.

Tua Tagovailoa ⬆️
Despite a loss on Thursday Night Football, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins' impressed in Week 3. Throughout the game they showed grit and toughness, particularly on defense, but Tagovailoa never got the breakout game he was searching for. Producing just 146 passing yards, the once hyper-prolific air attack of the Dolphins has looked poor through three weeks (Tua is ranked 23rd with just 575 passing yards). Coming off 11 days of preparation and rest, Tagovailoa and the Fins face the Jets in Week 4, a defense that's allowing 7.6 yards per pass (24th) and permitted at least 30 points the last two times they visited Hardrock Stadium. If Tagovailoa doesn't turn up the volume here, he never will.

4. Overtime

In the News 

• MLB is instituting a challenge system for balls and strikes next year that will be automated.

• The Oklahoma State athletic director said he fired football coach Mike Gundy because he didn’t meet the “expectation level that Coach Gundy has set for this program.”

• In other Sooner State in disarray news, Oklahoma quarterback and Heisman hopeful John Mateer needs hand surgery and will be out for an undisclosed amount of time.

• Meet the new Heisman favorite, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12:45pm: A slate of 9 Europa League soccer matches begins on Paramount+ (including Nice vs. Roma at 3pm)

• 4:10pm: Brewers vs. Padres on MLB Network 

• 8:05pm: Mets vs. Cubs on ESPN