Our Top 10 Bets of the Day + Where This Week’s College Football Money is So Far

Plus we analyze the newest College Football Playoff rankings

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The CFP got its first shakeup in the third poll of the season

2. Bets to Watch: Insights on 5 NBA and 5 NHL plays

3. Game of the Day: Cavaliers Mitchell has scored 30+ in 3 straight

4. By the Numbers: CFB matchups where ranked teams have 60%+ of early bets

5. Overtime: Four NFL general managers are on the hot seat

1. Leading Off

The biggest takeaways from yesterday’s College Football Playoff rankings were the moves down rather than up. Alabama fell six spots to No. 10 (the projected final at-large spot) after its loss to now-No. 8 Oklahoma, and Texas dropped seven spots to No. 17 and will need a lot of help to have any chance to return to the CFP.

The top four teams could end up facing each other in conference title games, which will open up the question of how far a team should fall for a loss in the extra matchup. If No. 1 Ohio State can beat No. 18 Michigan for the first time since 2019, they almost certainly face No. 2 Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. The Big Ten strength of schedule isn’t as tough as it would like people to believe, so a loss could knock either team out of a first-round bye.

The SEC is more complicated. No. 3 Texas A&M and is the only team that controls its own destiny: A win over No. 17 Texas in Austin on Black Friday gets them to the title game in Atlanta. No. 4 Georgia, No. 6 Ole Miss, and No. 10 Alabama could all join the Aggies, and might end up in a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker if the Rebels and Crimson Tide win their regular season finales (the Bulldogs finished their conference slate at 7-1). Texas A&M has one of the weakest SEC schedules in recent memory, so a bad conference title game loss could knock the Aggies all the way down to a first-round road CFP matchup.

In the Big 12, Texas Tech moved up to No. 5 and would very likely make the playoff even with a loss in the conference title game (assuming the Red Raiders beat 4-7 West Virginia the Saturday after Thanksgiving), which would take a slot away from the SEC and Big Ten. No. 11 BYU controls its own destiny in the conference, as wins over Cincinnati and UCF would send them to the championship. There’s currently a four-way tie for first in the ACC, which doesn’t include the conference’s top-ranked team, No. 13 Miami. The Hurricanes are all-but eliminated from the ACC championship, so they need a handful of losses ahead of them to earn an at-large spot, while No. 16 Georgia Tech, No. 19 Virginia, Pittsburgh and SMU can all win the ACC title and get the No. 11 seed.

According to ESPN’s playoff predictor, Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas A&M all have an over 99% chance of making the playoff, Georgia is at 99%, Texas Tech is at 91%, Ole Miss is at 89%, No. 7 Oregon is at 87%, Alabama is at 84%, No. 9 Notre Dame is at 61% (the fighting Irish have Syracuse and Stanford left), and James Madison, which isn’t currently ranked, has a 52% shot due to the possibility of being the fifth-highest ranked conference champion.

Ohio State has opened up a big odds lead to win the national championship at +185, followed by Indiana (+500), Texas A&M (+800), Notre Dame (+950), Georgia (+1000), Oregon (+1300), Texas Tech (+1400) and Alabama (+1500).

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Christie Attempted 5+ 3-Pointers in 9 of Past 10 Games, Faces Shorthanded Knicks

By Todd Cordell

Cavaliers F De’Andre Hunter over 3.5 rebounds (-155 at DraftKings)
Hunter has done a great job on the glass this season, especially with Darius Garland out of the lineup. Hunter has recorded 4+ rebounds in 10 of 12 without Garland, averaging 4.8 along the way. Hunter has had at least eight rebound opportunities in seven of his last eight. For perspective, Hunter cleared this line all 14 times he had 9+ rebound chances a season ago. He should continue to pile up the boards in this role.

Mavericks G Max Christie over 1.5 three pointers (-132 at FanDuel)
This line doesn’t make much sense. Christie is routinely flirting with 30 minutes and has attempted at least five three pointers in nine of his last 10. Filtering for games in which he plays 27+ minutes and attempts 5+ shots from range, Christie has cleared this line in 29 of his past 35 games. The Knicks are not a defense to fear and one of their best perimeter defenders, OG Anunoby, is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Look for Christie to get plenty of 3s up in this game – and make his fair share.

Mavericks F P.J. Washington over 6.5 rebounds (-111 at DraftKings)
Washington has averaged 7.1 rebounds per game and cleared this line in six of nine without Anthony Davis. He’s had 10+ rebound chances each time out, a baseline that generally leads to a ton of success on the glass. Washington recorded at least seven rebounds in 85% of his games last season when he had 10+ rebound opportunities. The Knicks sit 19th in field goal percentage, while the Mavericks rank 25th, so there should be plenty of missed shots for Washington to scoop up.

Bulls F Matas Buzelis over 1.5 three pointers (-141 at DraftKings)
Buzelis failed to drain a single three pointer over his first two games of the season. He has since cleared this line in 10 of the past 11, including against high-end teams like the Nuggets, Spurs, Pistons, and Cavaliers. The Trailblazers have allowed an average of 3.4 three pointers per game to opposing power forwards, the 3rd highest mark in the league. This is a really good spot for Buzelis to build on his recent success.

Rockets G Reed Sheppard over 11.5 points (-117 at DraftKings)
Sheppard is really starting to gain traction with the Rockets. He has played at least 25 minutes in five straight games after clearing that line in just two of his first seven. He’s responded in kind with a spike in production, averaging 16.4 points over his past five. The Cavaliers are a strong defensive team but they play fast and their best defenders are on the interior, which should leave plenty of chances for Sheppard to get shots up from range. 

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NHL

Capitals C Connor McMichael over 1.5 shots (-130 at FanDuel)
McMichael has produced multiple shots on target in 14 of 19 games this season, good for a 74% clip. His hit rate has jumped even higher since Pierre-Luc Dubois left the lineup with an injury. McMichael’s averaged 2.3 shots per game and cleared in 11 of 13 without Dubois. The Oilers are a strong shot suppression team as a whole but they’ve given up the 3rd-most shots to centers over the last 10 games. This is not a matchup McMichael should slow down.

Oilers D Darnell Nurse over 1.5 shots (-135 at ESPNBet)
Nurse generates more volume on the road. He has averaged 5.4 attempts per game away from Edmonton and gone over this line in 11 of 13 contests. His attempt volume has been very steady, with Nurse throwing at least four pucks towards the net in 12 of 13. Isolating road games where he attempted 4+ shots, Nurse cleared this line at a whopping 83% clip last season. 

Hurricanes D K’Andre Miller over 1.5 shots (-190 at FanDuel)
Miller has piled up the shots since Jaccob Slavin left the Hurricanes lineup with an injury. He’s recorded multiple shots in 10 of 11 games, attempting more than five per game while routinely logging 22+ minutes of ice. The Wild rank 24th in shot suppression over the last 10 games and have given up the 6th most shots to defensemen during that span. Miller should have plenty of opportunities to go over once again.

Ducks LW Chris Kreider over 0.5 points (-135 at DraftKings)
Kreider is enjoying quite the resurgence riding shotgun on the top line with Leo Carlsson, one of the NHL’s biggest breakout performers this season. Kreider has 10 goals and 14 points through 15 games. He’s done his best work in Anaheim, where he has nine points in seven games and has hit the scoresheet in six of them. The Bruins rank 24th in goals against and are now playing without star blueliner Charlie McAvoy, which will make their life defending even more difficult.

Bruins RW David Pastrnak over 3.5 shots (-135 at ESPNBet)
Pastrnak has averaged 3.5 shots on goal this season and recorded 4+ in more than half of his games. Most of his misses have come against low-event teams or strong shot suppression teams, neither of which the Ducks can be considered. They rank 5th in pace and 26th in shots against at 5-on-5 over the past 10 games. They’ve also struggled to stay out of the box, spending more time shorthanded than anybody in that span. Pastrnak should be able to pile up the shots in this matchup.

3. Game of the Day

Sengun Averages 40.7 Points + Rebounds + Assists for 9-3 Rockets

The Rockets have only lost once since falling by a combined five points in the first two games of the season. Center Alperen Sengun is averaging a double double plus over seven assists, and future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant is adding nearly 27 points a night. Cavaliers superstar Donovan Mitchell’s 30.9 points per game is fifth in the NBA, and he’s scored 30+ in three straight games.

Rockets (9-3, 4-2 Away) vs. Cavaliers (10-5, 6-2 Home)
7pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: Rockets (-1.5, -106), Cavaliers (+1.5, -114)

  • 51% of the money and bets are with Houston

  • HOU: 8-4, CLE: 5-10

• Moneyline: Rockets -118, Cavaliers +100

• Total (233.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • HOU: 10-2, CLE: 8-7

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Cavaliers G Donovan Mitchell: 30.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.2 turnovers

• Rockets F Kevin Durant: 25.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.7 blocks, 3.0 turnovers

• Rockets C Alperen Sengun: 23.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.0 blocks, 3.3 turnovers

• Cavaliers C Evan Mobley: 18.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.6 blocks, 2.7 turnovers

• Cavaliers F De’Andre Hunter: 17.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.7 turnovers

• Rockets G Amen Thompson: 17.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.3 turnovers

4. By the Numbers

Ranked College Football Teams 60%+ of Spread Bettors are Backing Early

NBA

• Hornets (-1, -110) vs. Pacers (+1, -110): 59% of the money and bets are with Charlotte

  • CHA: 7-7, IND: 5-9

  • Total (235.5): Over -114, Under -106

    • CHA: 6-8, IND: 5-9

• Warriors (+6.5, -110) vs. Heat (-6.5, -110): 64% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Golden State

  • GSW: 8-7-1, MIA: 9-4-1

  • Total (233.5): Over -110, Under -110

    • GSW: 10-6, MIA: 9-5

• Wizards (+16, -110) vs. Timberwolves (-16, -110): 74% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Minnesota

  • WAS: 2-10-1, MIN: 6-8-0

  • Total (237.5): Over -110, Under -110

    • WAS: 9-4, MIN: 8-6

• Nuggets (-14.5, -110) vs. Pelicans (+14.5, -110): 81% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Denver

  • DEN: 9-4-0, NOP: 6-7-1

  • Total (232.5): Over -114, Under -106

    • DEN: 7-6, NOP: 8-6

• Knicks (-5.5, -110) vs. Mavericks (+5.5, -110): 83% of the money and 78% of the bets are with New York

  • NYK: 8-5, DAL: 6-9

  • Total (228.5): Over -108, Under -112

    • NYK: 9-4, DAL: 6-9

CFB

• No. 13 Miami (-17.5, -105) vs. Virginia Tech (+17.5, -115): 82% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Miami

  • UM: 6-4, VT: 2-8

• Missouri (+7.5, -114) vs. No. 8 Oklahoma (-7.5, -106): 71% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Oklahoma

  • MIZ: 6-4, OU: 6-4

• Kentucky (+9.5, -110) vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt (-9.5, -110): 60% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Vanderbilt

  • UK: 5-5, Vandy: 8-2

• Arkansas (+8.5, -110) vs. No. 17 Texas (-8.5, -110): 78% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Texas

  • ARK: 4-6, UT: 2-8

• Kansas State (+17.5, -112) vs. No. 12 Utah (-17.5, -108): 61% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Utah

  • KSU: 4-6, UTA: 8-2

• No. 18 Michigan (-13.5, -115) vs. Maryland (+13.5, -105): 69% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Michigan

  • UM: 3-7, UMD: 5-5

• Pittsburgh (+2.5, -110) vs. No. 16 Georgia Tech (-2.5, -110): 77% of the money and 73% of the bets are with Georgia Tech

  • PIT: 7-3, GT: 6-4

• No. 11 BYU (-2.5, -114) vs. Cincinnati (+2.5, -106): 82% of the money and bets are with BYU

  • BYU: 7-3, CIN: 6-4

• No. 2 Indiana (-26.5, -105) vs. Purdue (+26.5, -115): 92% of the money and 75% of the bets are with Indiana

  • IND: 6-5, PUR: 5-6

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers won’t need surgery on his hand after all and hopes to play on Sunday against the NFC North-leading Bears. Rodgers was knocked out of last week’s game, a 34-12 win over Cincinnati to move Pittsburgh to 6-4.

• Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said on “The Pat McAfee Show” that reports that the school has given him an ultimatum to decide if he’s staying or going aren’t true. According to ESPN, members of his family visited Gainesville, Florida, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, over the past couple of days, home to the University of Florida and LSU.

• Deion Sanders sounds like he wants to stick around at Colorado despite a 3-7 season, saying “You’ve got the right man … Just give me an opportunity and a little more time, and I'm going to prove that to you.” Sanders is 16-19 in Boulder and agreed to a five-year, $54 million contract extension last March.

• Four NFL general managers are on the hot seat, according to CBS Sports. The Browns’ Andrew Berry is in the most trouble in their ratings, while 11 GMs received a perfect safety score (though one is the Cowboys’ Jerry Jones, whose job security is never at risk).

• ESPN’s Jeremy Woo has an NBA mock draft projecting each of the 30 first-round picks. He has Kansas freshman guard Darryn Peterson going No. 1 and Arizona freshman forward Dwayne Aristode at 30th.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Rockets vs. Cavaliers on ESPN (or Oilers vs. Capitals on TNT or No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 3 UConn [NCAAM] on FS1)

• 9pm: No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 8 Illinois [NCAAM] on FS1

• 9:30pm: Knicks vs. Mavericks on ESPN (or Hurricanes vs. Wild on TNT)